[{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421520294},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424778226},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5337294667},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441662717},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5355806401},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135821792},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169780501},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186109533},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204386952},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225404371},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632735075},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659804054},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709424768},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637812663},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067963165},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689191999},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708778216},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659812674},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637234732},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072575719},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818838616},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849838631},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895804172},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937493848},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999459396},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562557607},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585819219},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533702446},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511029865},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492710833},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530667437},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537632958},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559357107},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517600189},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512496738},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09444851},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956493164},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926614132},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010549615},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067743163},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489183706},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511528545},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540045801},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576219267},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623288256},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574227008},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593675293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581675287},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665227053},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825468513},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512715327},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456784682},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514291456},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341158877},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055984999},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904047053},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3798840104},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545426184},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331150215},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414908878},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758614053},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808294375},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811092783},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898358588},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926916713},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990662441},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049956312},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995542441},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003255667},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123139631},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002718893},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066341876},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040180586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172452762},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219041471},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587646639},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610195026},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568904704},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634550832},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660389541},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824357203},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816917199},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442408391},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302953834},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993743494},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805124468},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802281363},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825689995},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860986565},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862942428},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354606208},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320419639},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294791006},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292258246},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284907898},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1806595979},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823797591},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173191856},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1881894365},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1938628235},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765011086},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780286955},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833493878},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920424956},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871597346},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807666197},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867424847},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875597265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953355925},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027321479},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122145959},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965902221},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967228083},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.132766654},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383976913},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443246253},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143764625},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139014933},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422633484},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423260036},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201748017},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888755313},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3849860798},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560112091},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214649404},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603881158},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604042448},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604719868},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604719868},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607365029},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539295873},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586399345},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508468272},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574088994},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735813213},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605666095},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603045404},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060001092},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602079887},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601079886},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583528236},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602011004},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592631689},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632355847},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628562741},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1802991174},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818272216},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801587035},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818225664},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.18615181},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793252396},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839597247},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082435586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945735231},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010666298},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205744327},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290571956},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182537419},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233062961},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476123428},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791942134},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812321454},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837562846},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811562833},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817011112},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293678567},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.135904147},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264033406},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350872115},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484194695},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986597321},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023424925},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020080096},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086295646},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163597754},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634518142},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668312987},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730074052},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247715427},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614854684},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503114403},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505666128},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511812683},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520424756},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532916142},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3634529677},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353152997},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267932597},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117081142},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360434712},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128076634},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158138246},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128404376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140210827},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157815666},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271495391},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313067825},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310537134},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405173044},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418947878},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1516862755},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522862758},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1454173068},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434862714},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550647255},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585074058},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617936961},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648332122},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693106315},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074822825},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128625643},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025081773},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784486292},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287752242},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745937905},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682525348},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713945025},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686561477},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686372122},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685055348},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101404561},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070330121},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097700825},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178080175},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271356084},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569051797},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574118894},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589105023},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597698571},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610062442},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171344906},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732518035},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601414521},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174772494},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808414625},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672743167},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701872199},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678493167},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675388328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687904457},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506633061},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350055397},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499372368},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357303331},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129234597},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552252358},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584252374},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612114457},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058966617},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698700708},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225374371},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121763671},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248757274},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126134179},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308220822},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037218118},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028804321},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125252645},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070873308},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157769903},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232778475},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233568475},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230035025},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264414353},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303014372},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520442746},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739902421},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602983068},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519689198},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622091455},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496130487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535647748},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629509864},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740391299},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557242586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228149663},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752475943},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223426023},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094676993},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288589159},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348614051},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405051228},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136088018},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395656389},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436912437},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041970083},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453459468},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422700831},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0355562867},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0362838733},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879751152},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874954459},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900581797},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923307603},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956783409},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1693750775},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1769578399},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217281998},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345455338},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994164718},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171049347},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133962288},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917158128},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539778629},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895779307},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506428543},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242718868},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055944686},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168442856},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061493063},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526877541},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400249095},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237267265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862525333},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405843426},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392346297},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264650748},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054787507},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173929597},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272612405},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289236401},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296437279},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961503322},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1704813539},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022607302},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463710626},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192469111},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231261733},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1889951218},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875882746},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496065889},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637872584},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403525328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902170494},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412622102},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523146658},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507381755},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246533394},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917718881},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357041448},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152778449},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129198336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2002001138},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1807202753},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263503339},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563331366},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301283377},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037985774},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1648709718},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297271038},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124434594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925917253},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1954882285},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816847733},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919227595},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527503761},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259710524},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922640889},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1569261402},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734365433},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242951895},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887399993},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955468492},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1708778713},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929365531},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3780525314},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412655198},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1758049527},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370267273},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077662418},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100567113},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31921912},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006468517},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1620847635},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164848408},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166193838},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086993809},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1986041461},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615436626},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083759192},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187847918},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134684989},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237296219},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109020638},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263676043},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342884854},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172779446},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1936054689},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1509787234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593400346},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360969245},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170778944},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1913296057},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350400225},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633105971},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805035563},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869783397},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1663460819},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875783388},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383675603},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643452651},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.183122705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450089273},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787434426},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645600178},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959393231},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841815656},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1562428562},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509625039},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926555373},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1943847796},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601209694},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908124141},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358080105},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050425842},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898630171},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1704235012},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979138225},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153053988},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136860521},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1934709861},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1619511427},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916744835},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331606611},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525618847},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150744452},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921641233},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353503674},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261985887},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623822414},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280572448},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111847884},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066917324},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373307586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689813941},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189178372},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684630173},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709114034},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366718876},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615338342},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144299524},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735622108},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360557586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201673614},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070449198},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102138234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180358985},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351915792},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302332058},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424275883},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995202751},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581589852},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023778697},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080994753},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256268946},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671123867},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629326978},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965813325},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128963677},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352123863},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524434294},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448493069},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702170486},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855815656},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524654368},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748331776},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857956367},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139747897},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417123895},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963951255},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225606558},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226402037},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569675696},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094675458},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823546012},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039572483},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432135777},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970888225},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1877630172},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615557593},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783448935},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775146799},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3866658692},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431124403},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4405469718},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530658048},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1834382373},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910132939},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995089702},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991814339},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316227459},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121808216},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208665147},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303675563},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995951271},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292283141},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3985592939},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2043061295},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337180179},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530274265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24028146},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744912412},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040565654},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37349158},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572399794},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595210487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158718556},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358737614},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202425675},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472977372},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818184941},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770479264},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1814540218},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1761421295},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640020559},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34961135},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426659836},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180787121},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115757018},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350925381},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357638599},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832317336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235949572},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115404213},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414714693},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840853622},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904743109},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538448725},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333807538},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164790475},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502808135},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3628644289},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480392215},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299393763},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341369899},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506589989},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850736887},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316347482},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104417872},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302142474},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3694099345},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830941482},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177536508},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282723588},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411002528},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2147052933},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429036254},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981213082},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208359042},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315104551},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139106025},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333244677},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103429227},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320699785},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225929669},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311744914},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505900334},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253436187},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092492216},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904130963},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3637523924},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390735529},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515086244},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299540769},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471036473},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3684158561},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846179379},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934840125},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028349013},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168289316},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268624349},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408924412},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116540361},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141810147},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318705152},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272064434},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360358912},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227274207},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060872972},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367011789},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655700816},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744135462},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4148232845},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4005336957},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3832038207},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687729957},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025937099},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915500209},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110703459},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380600408},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085336625},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1977266878},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358432858},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350733435},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764681494},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1805417774},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707747917},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014394123},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301424803},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159064565},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230210952},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470282394},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282694691},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861042441},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826369812},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321536756},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908372081},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582425617},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530497643},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516125112},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504803556},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516882836},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918846833},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306860636},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094423601},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275157553},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187280436},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224689815},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119605319},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182600499},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201433555},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184379581},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991491953},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033008014},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318487715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320736157},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511102463},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091226987},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158811076},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313530482},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957857171},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1939471462},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130113796},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316113156},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472407247},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900091477},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.187854835},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316593915},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079096163},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235097283},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271309102},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350276457},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596914756},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750624299},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846902516},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056933937},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351160123},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353247429},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579303703},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3675366557},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37718296},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871452987},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1322526504},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275771089},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321719619},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405380265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498402306},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326175614},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361991518},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341106845},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3643140372},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673188888},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220875734},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331485121},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289049165},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329550011},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3438207516},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252451078},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231020761},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322825726},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129503598},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194986264},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4657099228},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4623884012},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4596840526},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4567811695},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.455670445},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913790222},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731442087},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675822647},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651955414},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750680472},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275817288},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257723956},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114158032},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214135004},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965130173},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974982433},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337603742},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147988019},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464961418},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723500596},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165117046},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4425462845},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5003846533},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3771874383},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825453878},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3941626065},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134302482},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.433056398},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304935549},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197220064},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195547842},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31595952},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184145738},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889086209},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677959673},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485799758},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291253066},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.367114028},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173774669},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884809447},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768270868},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3658036547},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547681513},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3868213772},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805164199},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3770271722},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3806902386},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926987067},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818452417},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695806041},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735031251},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726022676},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932124873},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925708206},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835209622},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4097901324},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501393836},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4720562443},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537879844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927282514},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1938333744},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937471701},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199436376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252459181},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579796028},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658292766},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820460599},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918606575},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230091317},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550024079},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822046589},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4170662032},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4616527292},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079832314},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319778256},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631406391},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797617578},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715159257},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119674445},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30210737},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379826755},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299260045},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900849447},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347065985},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.348605094},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491600023},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494435778},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910513943},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635932681},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552446806},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555092351},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641876729},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1990773181},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014126731},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504333117},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618922339},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718610412},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310992702},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315760506},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339286843},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421144421},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554511731},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444269181},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1820609169},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746080804},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1736971751},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.167757147},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052137666},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077586287},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104116841},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247022594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621235483},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059604986},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016249295},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319237612},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172462731},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511335365},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450197352},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383083635},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854912263},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906817202},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563878246},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673412329},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1834792437},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1839058146},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874833693},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1990473497},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763518411},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920326489},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326197922},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314923655},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242420579},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491988212},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864524139},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328117319},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045879246},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23082468},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329817436},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128526461},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964375},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234255851},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123981253},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402019594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4855165116},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697818022},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912016354},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354950471},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859399634},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704709901},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600123642},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526227053},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550411841},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090973521},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055804248},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258735384},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1510597579},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1824149461},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240930565},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373395005},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447589843},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574261133},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677860377},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006976957},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038654376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098646311},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194452762},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349259212},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298054525},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254433814},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307295909},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345054549},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421985622},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988593105},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127088422},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320467829},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550123116},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4039912619},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864678572},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852904378},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854162443},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879452765},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938259216},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141207999},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237080831},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.483745407},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4388712277},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989625865},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070735639},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081666679},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103564276},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116270396},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218304333},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080226957},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124388247},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191710827},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291323729},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444581792},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563302934},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767234071},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277368235},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277119959},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283678583},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178744621},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961784858},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802936502},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26743623},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590137487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190453085},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199583085},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226952762},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258097923},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1322202761},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818855991},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846775346},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889968894},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961388248},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077743086},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739420508},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812202766},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909259216},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055686634},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275872116},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126287046},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119428708},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295735406},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441080307},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681080427},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314518216},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4793400807},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.42799632},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4195287756},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3920621765},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057218046},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045666316},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049355973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084735301},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168287067},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792045844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810426198},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874847265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973631797},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103942207},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796226536},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821631721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884907615},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987114562},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147942229},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074725954},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755712121},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771197605},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804589863},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864388249},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280065664},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356517277},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488904372},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1668944693},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937331787},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414321673},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402494081},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416356156},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461080317},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1521183795},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845493802},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866873123},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893769688},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938424883},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010355953},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607286782},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706562694},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849424835},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035252514},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306321615},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905015903},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098555765},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.518741469},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402459173},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1675063542},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116329796},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5110889382},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501694472},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1758215162},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102572014},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1519452759},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576678565},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1685646306},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868226949},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097936624},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826424827},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868502434},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929011085},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012838713},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127804288},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775838594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819183444},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884390373},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097839042},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104907725},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11528043},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210218122},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325666456},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484114811},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1708735613},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820364475},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825950685},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855916217},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924493838},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106825253},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239700803},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205338546},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255202739},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385188544},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535054026},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835099217},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868358894},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914662442},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985904377},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081130182},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011872119},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031396312},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069065666},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129420505},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233138245},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081125275},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845942423},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895426241},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966261104},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065493912},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362275174},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525579278},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322300044},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442351847},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505433913},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773123076},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827424827},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901666244},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100397664},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142976709},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065080119},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105192208},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175631898},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284804366},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456114797},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042019848},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090666683},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160426373},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269775393},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414067879},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348204609},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535112528},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964029848},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277694684},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176953765},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068675293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073124605},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089537027},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139976708},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217287091},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130226956},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161678569},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211654375},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291323729},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399839857},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256870081},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463241134},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404926618},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445604037},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501010668},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204648083},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317505393},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775977523},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130247011},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172988465},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341700947},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1462942387},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645701099},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.195018401},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350529038},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060434676},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298987887},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999331774},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056984957},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323939056},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206597431},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256700904},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335218185},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447735482},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1616459705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437502337},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185923935},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893380685},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627907104},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419158379},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908641038},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856951357},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911537591},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905675519},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020859845},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733581802},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735549544},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756904392},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801420521},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878001181},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142536534},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453421792},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1496552436},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157184792},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642485016},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07945286},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854115872},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937600396},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057709422},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092528405},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172219195},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171360035},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31958513},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393701676},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530962007},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364644412},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901527131},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228158547},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173150137},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138807119},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200309423},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2011207302},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1989492232},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506155608},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985955627},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046461365},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20067195},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958580115},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411993761},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1890388202},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134592717},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2074377751},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034869876},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026397509},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021405889},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311344881},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973178085},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180466974},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099637286},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2154920028},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307120088},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331464753},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307152972},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343013223},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280135252},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854905251},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881229575},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419302332},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535295784},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526685771},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133604344},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126936916},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206456193},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102161632},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098615244},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169543639},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2200664985},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115366912},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216866507},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071984816},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214352149},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176155971},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024831363},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020094295},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866939652},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975100406},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321119846},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361799292},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242867813},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928629963},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066236389},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217158083},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135874048},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202003025},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191280618},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179913091},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089180842},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215125602},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318481093},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2165413504},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932037054},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045397867},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233232273},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386997356},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3569984846},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119791344},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104850696},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075700091},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061803376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114619276},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876130826},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930919202},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288735579},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058409462},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321686601},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846687075},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318941085},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324572458},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223409994},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186501178},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390353177},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310871878},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295614563},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383333792},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167778076},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203282207},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186095327},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139543595},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143688484},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136093035},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805915322},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309225184},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322657111},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313876434},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301770812},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208600025},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171753321},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119549873},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051750361},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1943487094},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2954758839},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942316139},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976945007},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011927655},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069384814},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246808123},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225267105},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222826489},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236564856},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215608721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144355275},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125494762},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.203961803},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073672586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072725707},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026824617},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053739244},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239208926},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253632144},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249290544},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157402621},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215795041},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118136219},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109408971},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100508815},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285706778},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826579983},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824998104},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806296949},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835005712},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046160755},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173260004},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218330184},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160043836},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158228136},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249911772},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193374459},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251964979},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371716748},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560634518},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300395721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306099227},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266123983},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253985632},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264409425},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213198182},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009091917},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270135193},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366213132},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1998072448},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001041984},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134381162},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2053975872},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201606801},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026159657},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216413857},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242788322},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995868089},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811209153},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1879205746},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246719786},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487032738},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247125283},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949464258},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044425311},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299444191},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253337227},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212458743},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156603681},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296751913},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959332036},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238854075},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195562007},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178900212},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211772604},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207658656},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345858893},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061884142},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084578532},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334204507},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846801342},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885458469},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266372023},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326788406},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259845879},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227113293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225146733},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143120463},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148517559},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329940423},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220968008},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307537131},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159475565},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168382557},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2175437983},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247154637},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211909119},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034659505},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922720568},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849296146},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969189662},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203161798},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225588204},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056625832},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128552754},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168169739},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094675647},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181120901},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259976918},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285033013},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152517376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096080833},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213049236},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066022136},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224038803},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144639735},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124010415},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064410828},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073103758},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036897056},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241277933},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157540407},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112566377},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055040936},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006902204},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342820021},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228391438},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221320682},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184612375},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136769211},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036808662},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170018234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178075128},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197919876},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201153812},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142563212},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131339328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146426667},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191148326},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365275232},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243628692},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127813549},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054695633},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.194567811},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866738185},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333495122},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317678823},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307357398},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285971496},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292319184},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257611383},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933292821},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228931991},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193279827},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229190952},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876241443},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343108643},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275128721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199108285},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127625389},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991383786},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939004528},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232773422},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340106604},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389320359},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055033175},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301562708},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259814347},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146329273},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166084079},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006477458},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219658801},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217886879},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248849013},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267651184},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101856741},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038683916},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975380194},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464756466},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898540001},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037109305},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308638045},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108628389},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262334547},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034418867},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018833392},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916746074},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368483498},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323271344},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359394567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061261165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113894795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562370827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426364152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728691222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620552446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475919357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482092244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491609429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507783956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526849582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552353764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590672547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638930459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689751292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392705159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369033778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000929049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122388963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1509894374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509471733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520348516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543414798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575295026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625318852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906865015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869853321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881835286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905962367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915803355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606050068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638930459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699627911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785266953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930306358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288750226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843184994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072260053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084296402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220791282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491546919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048112271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480216937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486921161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505564843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765714372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849953184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943073452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043934364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6890482965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465605166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466807863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473168906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485061481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504111479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922757621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094568638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963026723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981574764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045172692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263186215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292158465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783895966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338010358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494551025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495648847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349390492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376481798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956848631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079115552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531600361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538101427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560855158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604299781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06823282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813599098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846527622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864918137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986168017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074911943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2384506664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232672219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312505484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328725643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388029742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120016998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116332894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193912079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256166661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253284939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896722727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871533597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923352718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979129363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052716429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992042736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3876273755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768693616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369186852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3642735464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467034781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405586581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943183265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166292346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216778749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741384758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783641686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850652673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929603118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071188832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156854963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362072986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243687275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060901731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4232992242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494781825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506596262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527787236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554104051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588734729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864748109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882270982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896653341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929416212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987275699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639250517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168058261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630200073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080830834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980455001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1460303257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1871820104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611915615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842042722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035844498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066272436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702616526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753574881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825648574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927062701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063655507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651432509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675999037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713692717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791142916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133862233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059765084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091657188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126884624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.586441223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463481067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621078157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062383986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627047261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636758853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201621878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090371563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603162515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517728507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421097664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329081537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814400275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426825688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945933716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916331362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474419736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474685405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475982492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477685897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499628869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673373607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561042689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618489608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694939642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820710264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783372545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376204121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969572449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120159639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307548489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771187144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771921639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773124962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774281401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777512556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491343761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481920341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478279119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479794992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490437362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690415781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730452971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718146368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376326085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862169982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473278924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475716824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047971748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486234173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504160862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844526669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836837908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850777694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865030031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092010156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466528442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472091854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482032859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495600709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521116767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422836766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143371355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465968838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528479088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1640309923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473215789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047102793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475403647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482217264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499985803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611907278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641959081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653714133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652748975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651061198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1828500501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975149546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226128196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611941454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108835425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214173936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203817663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295264532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379278307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248035738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500220216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504095852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521786252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550353436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633554578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771530325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8034678067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873036968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966361645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111057279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613693196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614195154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614823382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616021078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619304741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554119679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548821935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555682435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572013237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619637296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338414619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760764816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254219262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456385535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914918631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986440983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984377519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733738924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437097787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594266682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532663036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054385237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595235795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668185256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783329135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715505514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076701396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838213134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924852339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105806168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218187094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223444206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4322089976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4262117643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.416863419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549306389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608362947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693904473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805297737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972063205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796237501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795611774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796643818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841104858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850486396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497673549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482233517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492549584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508430312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532529264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1885360449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226261918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066680178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4281612714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597132151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461792822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461792822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462495906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463342295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469315149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735405027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911293241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7616046929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170398224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6883569331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498204891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857362319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365832802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3944784988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253238091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188763245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196094565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608050396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586171809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658667007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983103159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253733025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760262853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452755331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054760697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825211002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829086637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744253369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082989969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122512232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622380871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493344714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561467895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023949372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036433134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059154769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660371475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284111483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966634712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100661221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661122223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631054799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283340977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233853956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444875102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696314868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352876086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462554664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374442097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826961289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680624795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536403456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240824127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088004525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625053184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581671071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521031247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108677743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181061463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637555234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673389234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534983619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912327331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000114679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589859914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559044236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291854308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921579456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004154278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552978867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634429721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426819286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168686427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991050693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753949318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526850208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068270488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183712244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150513729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628553758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689126814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227417191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224763771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639555562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854233872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254114087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122318426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587547034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536179862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344968469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070679385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194396534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622615284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590922588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281994309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983376013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999427066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566043509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068181249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205176926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146327232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169312249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745948006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797393941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530085839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286791138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310043864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762888283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782641522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758027782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321768392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204085622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653120286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05489157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221797811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228609676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174705805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677811834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709442645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328215687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115592187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189176303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740290203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792461882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276283462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1979848042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101068731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719193619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834650049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234559133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390123654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250655758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667497643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683187716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322380669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116101606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624365571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575857618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229396721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210166835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159078243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642243502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683187716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018161125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031619845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576045149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554479738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313097551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202648858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6445632527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621927671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540476817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371261078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329292203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300476426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647744404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652682714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414552088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227349079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1222276105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615801667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648682058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403493976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240567771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165704329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620239895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418205358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195222144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166641983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610863357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645556546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261761906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347383441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176956174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619239731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543227268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417347808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223948074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210086606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650932427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547868654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548803073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375252125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300726467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756074666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667122582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275919425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439595349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201960274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612676155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539101591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271374316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431972426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873171786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248213485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491023089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817789072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574335755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3517359262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217478238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237794069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257062218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037698762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27085823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853918629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3857655132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008953165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316740352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4114500314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4807863998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397382736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893139195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378881763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241130402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598316803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365751022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322075305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769331928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194038874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757215689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551658031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3512589125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3787009119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4472608919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10397192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586249947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532804309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4204222202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263129724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910763989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304039511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229714824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664691488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189286116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1773616503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338857719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364652906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.196186824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431093681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425342649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1847205167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229589804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088816723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838890948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424660748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080979398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699937087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382239832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199882704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391734635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310752726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845275662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608988219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311253685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398123168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006099915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619290207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763120476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4250915722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849219747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600883961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377130989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191626349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975860329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079438768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180956381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257876638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731863729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4079270556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593685805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161863753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700623653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680843412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165439995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813413807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490240417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244393286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4237532582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4703965928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355453224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627422949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3954258441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969966193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791008997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137796099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806022487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511649228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3801641286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2001867653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116919111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908885604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704804771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586629574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3861053246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912285554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680021479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440137062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3922910018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1998568955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786448713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897331511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599529875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743586528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4266732707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719475246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3929497611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4136288956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4290720564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4676062685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355671224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091669088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564811098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212286595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4724938854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291502306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.368597918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3741940442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313919164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2096212734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817270672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676454843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258289908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472036437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373166471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909275732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728216255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523623505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239519564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206152611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222462633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575210268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511703903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691136564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327668827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794863407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012495658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213389205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470208715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3792652866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787248195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012294945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277008193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567462478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3945077145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191652972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611360987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319111145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3814919233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4118658797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022071638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228590345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457955588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926926269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4380486898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782003653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585775089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429815535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256054947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109944168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946662926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303390139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363194489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.39613077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4432551796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098786456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342873188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459585942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3802032835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986000013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279025925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320397432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497343953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3684357923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904647922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270640245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386669837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529738857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625806096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3787526885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877193355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203166793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381881776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567467397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3749516813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280781742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350262903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466957344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766767886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3962157142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899569469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208193411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577707093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3562789677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3815486605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931575614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874946148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270458658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510923786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704945143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565972036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986385854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292969636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575773546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.388700004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299640779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179929265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1723043805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1668395388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5272877435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056296183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280942222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614046702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466095076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327452953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524636094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893937784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653284771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244997311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4715733805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551355728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816185256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4095412949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4259678197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4382621007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290079973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597993214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265174422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965893586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714953352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072060969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1413617232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927296182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540785715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431625764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193332468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506341323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210678681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1939785104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687410085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366688068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252431818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379784096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413340621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077558732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859880107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266027498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712472428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3896489443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.447667191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163633342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382046269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373340319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208586528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997236931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115542038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530707024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284113945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4404814244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4729142928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032356181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258171374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567711333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989770645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045753678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399567393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3869486396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4363389631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5110185703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4449588891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781809847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203020542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3834320292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4710720608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888132567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096205966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335317762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645158861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.402675536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866569338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153093967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34971893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3916677588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2192386049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457537592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355242504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558691592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3849412738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.403829896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066131991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3400441605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3741208205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109559331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4197257757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485122248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3710181703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3977230647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427641389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4624921846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4106549732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677721287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941507734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288685102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3699111396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968924173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172529744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387283368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449021406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763992236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300018219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862956367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1555704317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335015907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149295453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3620154782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3978463736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4351553636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4783299847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5452043053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094633709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3798740244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3854385463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217292929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910187924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056359729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714800102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523161209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3779771798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4056105005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848808217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120178073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591899248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696352193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4095165813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391457824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664507814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950735342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314336197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3868886356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829044841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560368808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3909052852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4367630167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4854191091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939383198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125713763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325831739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944656024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051036346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878816565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1519495102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288397537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125717206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953445298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347219072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548877424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3787426658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4110364268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4496910422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685512424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616260839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365699294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3860899194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4245602663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1987089004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099857493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381278635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268147648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930102951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957922059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057836943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201239744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440110379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4725154757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024556186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039261723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070079275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132823938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284661333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164516634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239153872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.138417765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515136622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540524818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022946554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032885833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062335506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115169794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268533689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210586688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280598167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389678552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15723335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868944633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022825278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028265545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105553314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104634941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243107645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894636345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037347244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293826796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581061391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698336247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081878085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239028851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447250492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5338263463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4563761475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021322062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021699468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027784841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049721563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099380955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027746085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034624087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066579952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120950116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223784477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021385042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026262716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039830566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071470754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142906216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186849046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194477172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220619583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270408997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143181046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957146594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711895343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290173897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153030172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3569598472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021634457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027574806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056974627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116298729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301664121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025962667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038949171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091520291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195974917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515011602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021337534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027902985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058482999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112319736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284161251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179285306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184350511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202866672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124624816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336294799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012225918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214361295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478724644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4771837866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316399624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027494793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033247612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073892401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142825578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340420476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024339901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034657218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074578763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153405438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1415948484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024385534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030638434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054342945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091770957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157205436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731758179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818084833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965609021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200397517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1652034068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479613159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941491526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4464676535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3783378691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305105717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057686619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131761264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1249280532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435623585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1858005339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029073802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037827112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088927991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117689929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389381628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030619681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6732867122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5969241918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1659910359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4394733761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027634973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033198854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067834532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129378998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1323308295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030575923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103582991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059343765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110523504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221044028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021446927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022011394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028578096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051661256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104921863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030620462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104543586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109163781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171823457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432810624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027635441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033075708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067344452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136652691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266783402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150893468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1768944422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5231782508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4722235497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999609378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027572931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034138383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057552847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099786646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233152888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022761517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022952799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030917855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055890699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105150026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022962175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028228039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054404205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101193752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256969293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156929351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360275191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632944898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006131086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346781416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035371085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046812336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116961962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235215726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505635064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179285462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185411935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212421364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260331094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343561616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532118007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574224402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175497674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4741208863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062660196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024339926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035023553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073087919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138778064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340798038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882595411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960358161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076502204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287286764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1711481315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2022669377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306214193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084036251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747377621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262800524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056061352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113838735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255844108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427872314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1745861952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128573241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172517946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330543856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522495117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801082363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023072818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029013167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062296749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125010782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250921426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858397608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073718546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327690419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726108713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404169513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019884796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025137532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046669812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085894994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161797439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000653728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310266992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311508645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494586173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4035299829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1497946304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21712209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480164736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885857971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570968036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102121377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10214013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032028062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060579649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125406472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342670845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469316609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1742486398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027658155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363570577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032276359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037527688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077816794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147091902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327793405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194929817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571860214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420256658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850192514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071897559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167912197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264438619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387376058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549188286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254802283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194376857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572562344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554627774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337983391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185322384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634110106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527907559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752565345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4011131261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1978535812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177401267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358431367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622056773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206430306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015683339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110688325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700179539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352383886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511868141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442249131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143935232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350256618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.363941935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190910799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950884766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149479647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610612294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514971646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322142241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152404512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180600217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342696246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582336059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3807254803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4152933654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712652077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258511712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246042497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317146566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4143162493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731780672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337739894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543996781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736196408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4064380041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714258018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593019425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355150665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731851979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4045121928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690183363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510109133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366861261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3943641758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4271350632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260717896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457544433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745401224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4005718372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4426283377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259907235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361246101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509646375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3661118948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3940189704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150320682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3390126069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329968632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163133747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4341173295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777931325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280466563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431565544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360591173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3896315002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112016551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662793053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252824446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360459295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107628127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727526815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586069055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459616435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323542134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214204651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744153487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644370877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466808006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666388354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987619476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707382446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392034204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568019034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340614536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217071927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128964386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204990753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395205147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597282924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3919168936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195701538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383201468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650973875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926802988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4312089758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109105156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229721084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365622873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468810038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3735164061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784098382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414667724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304389956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098487288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1885831259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285117379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433528538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657136235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855411308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4194589676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105631391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309619236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477118955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315116209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047893644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177254754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243904463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306135584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560588746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422681377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317538285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624327346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472597697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348466178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135109394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178415909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324730952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458965517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609346958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3845850456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068797353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206990733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364189641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514550737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3735305586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717775972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337284386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515018699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233502694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4025528555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739664498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346221502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585257824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3831333168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066884348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704013771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417346833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3686695788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188967124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1946202185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704915739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437594952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316630672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2137249183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914768622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137732518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219100074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312835093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414165153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606270941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122024576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331566999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542112424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316834411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090262809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037871522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758967552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588338441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490183062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310438336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730622814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384712761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3580421376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245404226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054839102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695646036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512587635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343901105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3951425394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4358702838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105553811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323712287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387375446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446075509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288569614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100579142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274793247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467993861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339731569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132899451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333308866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451583915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394337648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280620527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178010077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172497061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341411918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393732242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240672767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013265415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739213896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325270866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445580693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285471481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100019235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202145979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439353302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309220647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.406131412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.450570358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739197401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317409386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518198412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308779482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084535502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230059759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524610019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370204127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203501535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4186565994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149444151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303776745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477878338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343662892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123777807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153828742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264730822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522957673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764986708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099888113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232860418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340171416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621701606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244487657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4290472713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070122198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237596237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557641675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393261923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168438554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144997154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318115834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544835876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810704725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4147168286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780270274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571508755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411668883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3844788355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105948126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244180558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425992059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639928532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229862525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4124680089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297186171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528890139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763037769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083225984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849762538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126417316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709466573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573533482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428868644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249703873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266136877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3404670132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420542409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285977917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4071181508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237181837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476631158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332410793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4031784682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4501412441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148217367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318619145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456158389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403070908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225161636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194079614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335456608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350703424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720589207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3998495033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178695758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633473558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346180469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379396164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188061342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162568544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334690141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529308099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314016557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3997456027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652781748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652479428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665883803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692500236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072810087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439145827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439145827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440071248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440921281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442779901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632997891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623939842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645536847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700846719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809158681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221973565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1907253333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064594919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585412372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296630354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445760511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445993597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447228261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04493945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454163919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748647439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946532162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116942725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3588176685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834937763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485626697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463452746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465529751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467299052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471837692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1353333977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254791631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218867138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189250586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231329168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602073595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671537872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763079942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877545992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042860201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454010066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457259425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464837416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475626303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497954106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053376321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527109102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558844199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598228059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674538182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447299033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446609006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448612931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449625278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045783714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476046693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364882312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3858971974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705071106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805276781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4180694656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4144508614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974699613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730613069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4228831938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498454126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510223821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533070875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556533338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579457319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588226895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648306187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728540119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828851765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945625599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823082307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799773696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804389262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082262075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857775982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406886275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626488777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686925006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354820377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220684839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523628195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521685811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535301732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561148905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620228157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261638055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163038015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093939137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012859018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958472259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726232335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567918403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621997457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701308276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839775272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479164904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492069259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512473909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543686678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593842501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147455862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213298457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362377411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1580130609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995147738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481780392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475433219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479299525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509243013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543917457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418029604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429755451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1472185585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1538668206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1693785089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663095231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653129454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669421634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690943252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742579133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989178085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099477817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223110383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.137453789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354475561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571162937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831131459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621277033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476221316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449570452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690739398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791234898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963977091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179250192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493801053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4116492125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244787578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599875607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338098948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241637588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041241675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979295387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1633114236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250022213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6046919756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4416147014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636538404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566784885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728695883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867239806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500300353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517531801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548302245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602535152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654075645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467837535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474991663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522993555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563841319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668306975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488107564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04944732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507761416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521381184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556957201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663935264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677394256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691271726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694749556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724973824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065338331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724463035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825082386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923470879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063399472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449298342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451255343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456933259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462683485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474933968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0443644273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635189516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637401911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640632807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651652472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04419919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635309521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638236559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064209748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647159218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484761279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050983919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544994422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590996235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665460709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490992293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475299367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489146067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514070126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055491789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436811114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300763443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428490786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645994744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951666024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686108446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710315554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752790305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773200341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7484034096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507300629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506608294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054207123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597996511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685307645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643536768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629940078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645844551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687230798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759541341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3693653919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3804596754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651739773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764719611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422588619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875019739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917763731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971300457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094400694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210251414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677249635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676594994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668864689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669646259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678480453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000520839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002046284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034936811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114347109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121318153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482684274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496780983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052368589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560379644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614535625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642470572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851116489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834948159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848602543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860594555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4310989792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402433792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741114834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278145233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087267709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129749197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280158972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348834756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639615449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696003056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447625199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639420452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643075211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647786935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658998916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905207456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474442784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942396614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883243513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732619115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517916432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534147841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562148944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059722725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654306423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045783714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453606204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458991032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466222086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490453811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3676924798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3919742831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454647575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989013836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364490175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801200862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.422998583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1877373095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083981239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179135759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614442336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013092478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424204068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604091741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27263881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445760511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446378227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449548352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454760096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470145318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321895419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173098016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975782546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364260166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297293628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379952502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226223351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579995802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644075251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212399553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216247437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595996432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824697755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679562714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229929908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511032501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854929716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823851568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621556982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405736486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214732288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584611368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714154936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560621454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507225615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233483099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767618582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001473954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765098757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301668865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125474262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603073635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708010171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550433232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476409732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481492875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696154227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094539482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554171684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316532655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139094763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600688925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688692394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464993881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185295632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219944104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579995802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651383231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369161628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221803435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200483827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555456373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739848257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618642203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168439249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175119912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621612827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715924237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412656532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124183619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077347661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548379171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619843526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523293392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361367407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261581742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649844709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767772434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554388161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220783842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169887243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547917614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725847705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828993298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266932391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311169863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653691014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669383941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370156185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213367878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113994095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568149181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663999113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594237302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230644847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239867966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588226895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798773656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687170588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088747581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119294304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569687703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658691211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2230392946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340634774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294695469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660537438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882238485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943305739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468454856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468107732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798619804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919855352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475346853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115287089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218328656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566533733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663383704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106902143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231791046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1247945208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621458975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854391233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185520626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302756017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216174725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656921911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691615586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188366892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466300925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226790528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635921083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867160967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255876468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478762954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427644599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796773577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844236987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516924408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201828961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271869228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576995684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688692394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218682837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975242151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538455703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764233833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453846774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499962667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335640972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782234543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858083686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728057228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299832824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274946272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584842147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650767822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371374106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326141554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335410194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804927745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085485279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236138006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.237406652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271869228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597919585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423145377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264600666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384565978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802773814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860699174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382682244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179981946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214943907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584149812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668691606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163519759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335379097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214943907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060691994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719847468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124936156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352604135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212174567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576687979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751156395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628330073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168908482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285761149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576841831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783619213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611851893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476916728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849650449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927165245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299032158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557919921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597863084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067349964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110326311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096556537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298022986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094740752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185695393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254716618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234177346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369319544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917462327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248793307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4043209236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485494945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436185309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601152394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656261382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378139422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244843791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253464191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831535513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289232313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573548339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548617116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763505904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398491516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152789523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647812384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371197897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230208538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753002621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832467292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3891336737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592156259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207112018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394951002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477261939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867725336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464723096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743426277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949933461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094297286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462608471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200789824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089246644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077938506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383792081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870524175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184280233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284462353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290899184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436800718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4414146935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4564046326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3738966475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009186601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744876182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340213159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613734286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3863644355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121775458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663679502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509361861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633813151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389159763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030872081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737010409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3566993739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.38639995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4280618582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980791353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806619281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373872663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572715109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3792767988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711552977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440667028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278416034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210220116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866651487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238581545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834940473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455919874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957899039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4428787497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270886477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904024878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349864719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3925311429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863566849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881130856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783095975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430766139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764190803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4259125292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746266481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032334721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315953407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660833637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113369838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981878066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746819281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417233761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3637384563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897721951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087769391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719109402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287538458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402506266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490049657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886768379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286634022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435005632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3759514886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4201543673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829742422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922959225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351746488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697059155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051381241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328374467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904737543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570593567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316601276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097514455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284417509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651825616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968546812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486248762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4316575786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365680175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4248850174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4919447863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1345974728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074092218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614495604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952602185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590581609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219080485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4682565353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266749606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100259787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850420882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840580972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205591129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527260509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641636065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232751424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769214832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937127215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065484483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172700822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281555682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065050307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941739622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030660238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132668169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903808768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953393513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072299884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218524733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330889003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556803782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298742561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749517304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662248988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558919335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471671892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189536199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477600919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075045728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921304468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4175630091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186944671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534159437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320030198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3878976843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.411718792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180593597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586981005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422970121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728888664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968417717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131685358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641631885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516343842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385071778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167891588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953370989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096481544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284517172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441738912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669923206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308044777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941404679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319102382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491948166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3951564503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219380553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530175936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089027601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823198977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3705934854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876054112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129705171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546578702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720965765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3981767116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358810213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173095789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905048197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055374537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1889277187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869010416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958104307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848015945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320038703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599681259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835773437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673524644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592684761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518137173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493871963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753973984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106066674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513852173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4030896161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300347379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675316516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341981499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.421503644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4596966523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4178963185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698385239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840806019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230323368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3700452637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4257122417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3725635742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956742359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375496331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4114267649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677067779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398896023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334564106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195920265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006889293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075241894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745595616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502972349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4120696344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4589392052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849464935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931273525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698003982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507259962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425946654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727078901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896148562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318876802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666146896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133371421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184066515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275273112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638039524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249607209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.402988965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059409863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4284426072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4512079457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561492771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542994836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372796223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3963402062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4254640238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794703501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279141016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740335424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4331270695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1635934477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575600136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002058648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485513515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4101754502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706321231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31375622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064334165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269747104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516819249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266265324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319665351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990276526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708764485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485411888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235568739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807497407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283670289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526824585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777812069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045710564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314836569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1938963571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576519121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336725164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113502154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719101547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513426544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275822634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080205054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1852853093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647841178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4089337339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787856829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581020362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344529169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276903151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965212525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668581925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612840606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209994432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079032539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350531989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702490277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4137733198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4692418392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674886814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411683459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178480803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902765982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687787489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844076923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040215398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887986513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769708138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620592075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310529988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279290412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276418548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4616562269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5007686301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957178108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076407684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239965122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269972971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608860968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896820339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1577361855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357333734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181558318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047972444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824974096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268509921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496743386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37403813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4153907749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421763311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207067477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1976217497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783145248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157135438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141730252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153733033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212221492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131067768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1571111792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1777292996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732733548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464531624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506071723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645384907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143883413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158363984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226636675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363738233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1770735046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143576478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155579259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201443375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275715533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530110176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090449075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106394183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495504688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658366887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026450333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.17623501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172873339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756580641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811044327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951535536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741617557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831467253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964857126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150787532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1512340245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135942331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115371457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197503989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266138232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480877466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638806768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614498118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717348326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1893970672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264008152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225790488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369180756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5578992173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5092170339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4354759979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054475306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6567112207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5861400742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5084078725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4223705667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113226834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138501663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116586428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214713129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1365507534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134037648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140037885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156500095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195424868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282395796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143634173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151717568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119709705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274253937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1544033802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153114547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187327434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126963837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419259653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1814275223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137806259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150422325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205895089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297376387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539572088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998704614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6495228966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478415831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800813154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331603308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134114567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145886569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180130996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234693916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1408797702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960859077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113366633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393797111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175996539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4186214873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143576478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157425486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221117227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133133311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653422729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326429071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338660322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373208607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429386206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609978709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862622327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7008556893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6074750853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157649662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4437455546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139883448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145884262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180130996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235493178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1411663199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141653518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144884991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116774897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212588429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292812361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136017719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219944104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338718016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152410994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1829660445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182173384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342256618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459184303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576111989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756196011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141653518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148500519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184760409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242066514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423971377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224482744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216482429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302716597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143572184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593748678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141577361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147580482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173676896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225971265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350710028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174634626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120440503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332333149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532264107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983051107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143575717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150653103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119281765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263528899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508109309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134037648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140270994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172066255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228598291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398739613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335795786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348412245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406269141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499857445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760003853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897111264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841992981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4720556636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4508165297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.372389423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328104521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333876287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355957927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402895162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1496807325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334198615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1346353125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1390296973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459049683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1679423754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141787369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154865385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225489707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134784453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1651980365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336716128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1635639284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5373953999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331603308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279123681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737733745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789889647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985051186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274754913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973991179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614882748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1621036837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1749195735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1931895244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345383817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135960217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142518744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180357928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124509048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427740756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141653518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155500794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214436964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312998541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1597439753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210712971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6295144156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5277873289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177751089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568190512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136248689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142480281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180407161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244656616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438260402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175785803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6301189083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5481654532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4729915611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387978036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857430771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898817017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114594754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248160922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281640756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646960936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172181004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717618523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116941956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789353076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094639486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064014881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1236713996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1507186196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108517591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565803891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1680423793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844276406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104690517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676233046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143594941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167345877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123398235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344487475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660961488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149345936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160040973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204077325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280946508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528187023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991165855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191173739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445029899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4689403269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777876673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1569957901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173981075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981512585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305371504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769620573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143634173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157713959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122027104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.132679447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634883537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173745637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318686495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3517852784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760919511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046508275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173967509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425300247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3796162317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4127810782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4617905721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127769672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384563806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323562235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116795932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184894883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696657647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346641974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581179151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822729524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982852921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683959145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413541207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283675505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209733719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833237035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170332225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3344731327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364941732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193024272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963240679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757434995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363077952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409540254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258471841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4128393169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631782681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475830007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340326196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198953354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046940504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838297386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229593077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433473714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226908782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933109127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776657163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144362152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171516633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697391046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349805962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745981412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562351187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397262703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238411946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4194019103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704280385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593880299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527483149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722230802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078192519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150602219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274679617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473789014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327316733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132059237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687798374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560694396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438974857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308088802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156717376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754315686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249775944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429354409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391534991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253254241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813011115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279937427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492526503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329396434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136211121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639232337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482318725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329101534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177677944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996853496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326305601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463825739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323516207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189632982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.42766471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125575183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374921807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375093515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197560246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1940236685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747232742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612338487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477461265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338695147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188428898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698554883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328158567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421615225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268574793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086268437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656082488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533898443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460463365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345387449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189849264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794895341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319242333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620079144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486635435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361826504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102182319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183969829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356916163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3559255004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.385258401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175133824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365993122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567526836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3800333612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4140898899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082248486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271488628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508784636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701421042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.403850595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124785597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279366613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475333139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231334961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4014283979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718343331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330623746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536967486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.38103607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4218122221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687431539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554121579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407436125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271453694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082010432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715491305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605518981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448599432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280192367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079615471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181485067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261167911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482664919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328498301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4048789202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721096992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248790725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550295619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459015699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328364531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794436152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623258618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3446825674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361239817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028847076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722977592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574762059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453194286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3653777915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130761415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145103646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597563446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35092298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687665404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.397409657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182255771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337239849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460858086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328798473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151421582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755612029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289988265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439189737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380454646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213295127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739297696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307539901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499887754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724879659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185205172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735669553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588411505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441742916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314021006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106848387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069590135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189690381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331188438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494491932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707638046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711743689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337243524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439302865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332828712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2182305539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679476848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441106199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23081068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113514295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917555989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773328778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564946701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351549825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157267089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1907392939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186008953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332169737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436721085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229874784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098509321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771180411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279995395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461419741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667267346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986312833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160629869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572463745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414281665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3804695393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4145300639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754286371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599316857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537661811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299340676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082146957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045402988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284022039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535464994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220583891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2011964511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772310481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685324747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311388329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425737848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337917789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195296667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423311478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586118655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3809560933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4167928878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133519467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568904536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410215704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272170125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2042812537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115814597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679796491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311619237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450947389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625751181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132027667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215978083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395072257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528768168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825387905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703338594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353824122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412155346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273917016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4141732649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061745213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220477935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380237782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635175136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3981991971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282482503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210279673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395860925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414712474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236693771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754330026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576259995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420971335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250504939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016108284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180269164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402539386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3689899776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991356825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4465413649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183650115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323458212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431637413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280329448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065411001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337276893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441669381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618616526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269833581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4000411599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969019258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314302481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559796681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365408074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214448121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27292071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249486547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568340068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475125954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3741792759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912972105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914926659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948517711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989517886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063927295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171766463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1809092293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740001089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957687472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1906058615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0376745271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0377245274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0378577552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0380225741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0382484955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864017249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035010251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093854593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384846289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510255915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449333763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046897021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512470396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574516115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664925592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512355396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503390357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524493629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503388539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508050377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537816413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552716477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607359892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660993303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740811825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521243161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531606841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549970556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570607008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608061713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558039756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389312217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586810611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728398488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881621136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403799482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411879062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428515497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451288321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485106661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0382663024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0383708483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0386538041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391526698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404531754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658544201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671399711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659465569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652074174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646972788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517652236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526834094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538197779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551561472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578561587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550789196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597743942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629920443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705937131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785273378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453743327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450083766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462790184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484788914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525879658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425833663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452333776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494970321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549516009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637470929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840403614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617317207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621555862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624532238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063643638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7138464125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931174001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131393037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307519698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488551379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3893034367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745302373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267376371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112892402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406446836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628664074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628073162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629970897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630834538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643027771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051517418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262909229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673525072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788718746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361684372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499925797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497549878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051567541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524237264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523311806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651001794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209967816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952790355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530937822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492148565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273450461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316308372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142364883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612293726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158631316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391526703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0393617621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0396719452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0402180839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409151792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741917739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075329006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762372372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770401042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800292988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0386788496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0395936262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0412152241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434834156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464572919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663709678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704433033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073961182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798987073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872199204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516549857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340414819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019828368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297755009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31146615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2003749487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065089749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4507753354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222724135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054930967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835890413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891967015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985172868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104071102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6259631284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242757603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304451048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331121617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389724139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1472667675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513788584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533925033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058069796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641516401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733834977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414072249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428742766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457924709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491924854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549516009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0400562646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415017253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0443517375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481517537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549247371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052306135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525879544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525470452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536970501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055624331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502015806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522652258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604152605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690425701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836153595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647380063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058069796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06391073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704243942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081023303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333584108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496978864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508355731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526633991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592359271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224224973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.384953009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244399182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832920752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009299232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804983008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767948304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734164524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703130301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679391563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545800538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535061856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533109121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545907811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528603192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072493903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779766537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818981249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894392026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030100332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038755722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905298788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277002193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069276306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272279801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607255346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607766257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612789461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061525538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625255423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430845957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545164627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554311938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056902791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587721172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613688214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608859103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616993683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613849579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614669469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510629934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504902637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508140832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515948138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528550465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483653919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483653919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484018934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484564391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485704432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486891764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486891764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487119379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487619381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488803931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512083576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513947675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532517754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556199674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594652565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722441292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751280961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805703011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875392399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937749029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517254507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525390906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540890972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564800165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060666398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444833744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045765198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496652147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543481892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615425835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0406345398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040408357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409561321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424890931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457436525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114579128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067620492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6640814728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188302371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.151098193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998026457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062863552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253029363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964753588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002344657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476288424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496572601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555197851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620982223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721573561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532834119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545697811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568652454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059806167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651061897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755028249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774619242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916088482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025309403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133853048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488938654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450476217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842583345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165016116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1698305002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0435470068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424856386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430856411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451492863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480799806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481015716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637334565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702971209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793392049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896756127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508315504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923712994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468833846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559133528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3949064134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841719919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198423334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594652565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754074032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883548664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4285598902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351370626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532425027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813062588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347109271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5118145437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049648676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583697973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786515087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502535897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285836613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1744248889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811562581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.712326753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601007955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21653053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1606010732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077165988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380190417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819105842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257428492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1639832497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600334407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7480680915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147191063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4394188762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275538817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604970791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814213551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317982771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615949716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075001561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496606692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698505122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554984689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055632208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482801993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095134152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126607212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391856029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278594474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776562432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942985907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474680333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785919722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273034938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685243861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012495863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484846593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687320825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119376357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496743056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665744639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4021623122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2120941567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697129703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779335626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993968312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3889303391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006314017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450408111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511697666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632436188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436280476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313288138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502208934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123178669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770102588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581083786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075362611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597834397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744928131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333516769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1851048708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333263421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882047428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989334866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3757307517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832139366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266057627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699380285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895219305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672265389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207550419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1507851876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611061726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726153891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676902581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1679234621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141871964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663516495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097756329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3623819353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966460487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438782705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033722166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183040985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3980785039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1768305788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144031345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471470221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703425756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4051978676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1670450052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111000172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600607136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831639069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539783532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789649763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118984745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597743487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730834964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313471315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105384995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531652296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916017573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746968439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444869475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873740622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480197531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719789463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4079177973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1648138928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128304538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531561387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073821014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750998158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951909124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313286785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472924773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728289499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714695375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1724510031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090115024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605107155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790335218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386049957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687504932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097913356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614016284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767153301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859123246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1753015576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066705361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513834038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887455066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894741198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327188478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901358533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943464962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3700390034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174810019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059950566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604743517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683107488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3500236371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5000919274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037577326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577607492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3832831667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899527435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275540883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610834452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695516632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565083886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179102647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069911097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600334407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829153566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3637562481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231726094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450808389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3966346952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243291594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905250567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304828895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476119406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881302953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724620466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735161699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911403403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585403848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3819439195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4029562938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747393433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3726247248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4730118311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6203137956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5346543392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3780309436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856289577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391846996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297664099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601074485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753818934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120841686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344470891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745536743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542944969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.463718112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4442160606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4087985653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4521184859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138927615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614789015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791880679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3969383375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419860442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051868329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14253202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1663003033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331793524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4229842916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1403065105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4059578521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091738326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645992311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243128516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1526087822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3773879738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362721371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706538251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6237917878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3479892149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594563438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536960295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490577398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206750801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046575227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933013027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619368284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281507791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4046566156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1854325843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181702099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793173065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411303754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3808494667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4311874019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118277598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464519087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887330222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4099154318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2019513869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164636595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805254073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429491027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.382733944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1918020168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831742675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170328511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508600803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3811655418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273354275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529684355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117106361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362782474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3679883753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4113958563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745995297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251232808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3758593782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3965372371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1928920483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077213036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401586413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723119002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3941660261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4212741507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734704504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249157291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3634530672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3927882997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4291835224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816976526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240822885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353214499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775035241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091402758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339755981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320070898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172087605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060454656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927425978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041422164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175728534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1504530781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344238662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1177431501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.40037644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1881417328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665063295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500339564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355753478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037002328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896308074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853402446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303874975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600425988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409444306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762798296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2175040801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003211127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587385184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298260638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3962352361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1938278422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162236362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340513811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550785979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744683846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124401508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873444652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994254633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119299097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284870769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481973127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356773225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051412365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254413325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590355171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958778409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043414031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616033951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424271285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297403277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194217074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984411279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772757353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510378335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3821488023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4237721735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056375479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328219531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3556739778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775294976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4044533081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439892987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618315981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125696814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013472844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1884357211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1829119946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227976119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002767827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3853381924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4758875966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182301376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162116721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453750619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1361152983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317105029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443721408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3677095576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4007389386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134908999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4235373473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242239923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523927255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358843939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3949935591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4225474614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921180402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271545846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691253534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3969268457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4238726347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268100755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005533763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543559383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890364777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4268971528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126873062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844778785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676610499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494311006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703012021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255362143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248621946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426912383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354777999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979019424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112395976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341962094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3559187988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890126644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652509575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080764631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528053419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075853775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.473594756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708798686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502021406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255675129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123094804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898571171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752822432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310915306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655185492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885467115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054482796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115976626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395089975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3678570507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084795121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139256061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388569854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.404595178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4501067841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4927442597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224233864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354287535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065770017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4413169565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4678557831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523150692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189844855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038094946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917883241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1779668805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529912389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3911154931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4316174805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4772228697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968719698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772795011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423626302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4141396716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4418205342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023789556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302994942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051748401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012455802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600318654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295984331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.348391032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992589663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4693143402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453647794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655851311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3847355342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4026781965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4136104561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357937694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3616063726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3941792173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4246425289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4574097322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277456597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656735824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094534428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4622374575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988109348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628201062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480907415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4132627855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4317511865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273877117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396074223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4186001664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4394094021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4510821432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440628202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129398068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121179136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192271439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218905504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334388953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719681918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900798002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671252213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422777638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660893467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176998321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226226355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284336764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1888937066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622387616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989890397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326485619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300614008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1870101283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878351552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328484474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217395693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1845900411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500346627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656589358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177961331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029223637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921722174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416231819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341654841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264597993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219185676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219663679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227161096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013291922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1722517327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1517832327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1378911878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1236415251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312420123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415851435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728914508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3939122585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455982348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458085217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2209073273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086775375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993134112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914230556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299790472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218152979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958954157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4130512896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110723813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310628335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749403178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698979066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698299989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767647003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1727784287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5557125534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208348646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054450549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973841521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363088493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34603678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3640814867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932715256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4287434003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789198963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804472097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854521401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953410459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168530014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783518371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079175977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815178051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851430479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963404138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785790199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796973428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843028625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925972161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165791366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781246088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781792909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788941576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811487581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861257794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901062963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006017957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187336912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5826629436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5085171727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1625566055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1843112438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4504487431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956757821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024935663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897165674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902212514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927851259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973540545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087063757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782835754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788019299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081221213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085497913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092951763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897336129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910576186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951801816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102992715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1247018985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123928914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128386206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143943545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1177485052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253020829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896018851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901212964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925476704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097816602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109711581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899517616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910165729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952112727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021603932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206621085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782518371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078656522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797486726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082298763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883669253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0380242673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0390106692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835882685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915619844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112882049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1813521402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1916658206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135568231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299159838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510990023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5468127906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4939898379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.198402213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347841864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786298281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815017142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916517575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130609397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430065221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910158178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1584020423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178511219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4779488604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357211515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764252508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897290675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901746603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928119897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981426943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111883662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894847941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089825706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916292615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954086485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101306435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008473876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009701154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017157095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035704902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071179144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7291044776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6700587711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6067539555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522656525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4666079029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895995669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903362064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927244893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974222366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065881848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7289411645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6707456763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217723799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1448949761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846096301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893746569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894293389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901123873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914260747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966030968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2175295673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377478354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724661654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155953891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3770114602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1820385068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1883930794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2010067696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180111159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356618748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790381582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804121186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867665094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999063382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1413246967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782619731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786632475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080794893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847676372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963301865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138563977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1296519196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1497656418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4931761981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4297668366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009654904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101047343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019705742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104901314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117245704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152204666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212204922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226432255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320387202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440653238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902790357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919154404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974938279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079972818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326246596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849976103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951431082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117886338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317478098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348867297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783517916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791019312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819119886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867972368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019565287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331755154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496710403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617165462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816984497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4087440196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894848505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898530339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908622996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932634007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989922888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078456383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785167469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079816707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827722196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895337484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897109765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905838438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940759951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005404318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117434822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270614262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367569221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255447911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921473877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333134577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302201039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484019996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1798384974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127613652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681600623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07870743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791575683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817267265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864256443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011256615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072704327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203159429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425635225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742911338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293438838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814198956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894517481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172382303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306519239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714702799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695562086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801653448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098188149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253928105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1682884481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.685240654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.624099484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5496537118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4884059799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219421507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5843564345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5317278865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4669244221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4082087383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442488206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690843328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763980004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914889738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044253927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335164259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274534356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837753046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164219298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.364607569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3988370199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068700042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203836983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451019856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846021541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286296147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631974381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755655198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236697831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2230614091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375709961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786882476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803657548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867766912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999892931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393837793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695909202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091625621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971199626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067200036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314814196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009610245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009747973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016069818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035723083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082893285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078901794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805928466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853665488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941063589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170939115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897018855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901112509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916177119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949110441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021029384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398089488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626179827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3951595474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1940704748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775452894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231012851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3400095667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614014226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2222473283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077973188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327605772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341904966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195931706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067681032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904339063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341618786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618599742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079621053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4180073342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4599153502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248120601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497676617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184691698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024964983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1820971771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272253674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349743971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522359254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3685555105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3931586184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306752531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321269177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208214332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4073637513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1949284217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210764173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347262914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122765091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1988536956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1739449187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355920403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575593087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129072237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2007979558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4538254499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051974181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208075935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244085196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306210974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880296217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123962909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363760448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320255873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2230196746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105446477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287802304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404005194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243777467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872270523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4224623691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176160199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461288111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354971502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284356724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212612858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368814742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255155866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957957186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4280770681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4698128913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261757608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416898269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505814684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3643765795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838446185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334098366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521756687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219802529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3981327136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274920416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3782514088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125913495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1929228976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1781687188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4853521131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270040651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3487477216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748282029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4029742979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4352750813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186011376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365309716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343363727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743660615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2063494612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224116572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406483458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222298697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094680958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891789648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174522248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341141353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530522507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3699000884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3978006602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281362956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483507207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3685062304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387366317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4188400023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138675331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396588457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663293396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888846563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4209030408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316665522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525440393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454741929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341224505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238498765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261507111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379728482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374553247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318925669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258732945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325534872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458263792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36879149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3947761273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4260313543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064294917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307048477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357064622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208621472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4221944143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231616551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3403661556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593077273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281554474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220028964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177777133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445346019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295360249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145797731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950942684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414870545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222540887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2007525999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801438482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1555846832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227061791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382658809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564645434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724031647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3975027171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220888903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419784759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231806069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3863363007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038014371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099119974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226456334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244768432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336362795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214313219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188329575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323713779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321403553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2192424661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040630421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111804446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260117261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424860618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3721932075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149398268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209153091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392818693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565785263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37520565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4018853203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423225181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3678505276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091625426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4227447287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4612807553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172662546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394718685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682292834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207662184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4388003318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190270665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3359099615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313180145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203995162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4063469594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066958678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321641572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448672471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323548901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3988078066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401930367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298243612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117307362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1970835045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178161196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313386153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630425784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654510097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267550271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675824562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288469782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481847992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233551789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123727502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047027937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253578272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434233886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219859794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205332718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874903094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262474433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466371766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719306385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3941181675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4250781721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268141043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430153292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.364527117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3882582525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.417576344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398618576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232343829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191218488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084075399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1953911047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224132907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424763702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571903949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745891584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110364183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321894019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393847025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340701505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258701038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162924363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224445511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521298539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456020418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389860195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273690125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380059079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3556769513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747520918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3938512993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4244165348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375348707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359669667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104638591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4181243958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.453647172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313617429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403620025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294739678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220565585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113665971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125527318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392944316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3699338915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3982113069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4378033457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442064934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267836617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2095858579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.197289506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.445220135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328766415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337681365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103324775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960909488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1723130012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286802811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418693188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595398349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707912124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.398255484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333376105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350321711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370410541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930256132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.195889721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211764066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341557925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3665406107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898823652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1931682178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334535686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280213534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126792331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2004522864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841367779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142822653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253741157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381408008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349294086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3735864741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214904676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416692095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273811041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125683266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4275611665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265540201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494402714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189425904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052899372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4415084001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049037269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495992708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511492757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532872825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573132952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441444464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493569429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282165924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700549284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308276007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522662285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344842205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637459484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393740313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920380379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112415023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171009208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058829653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373278248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250988261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897258706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046131177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000060631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945420459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918140372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566924933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560985714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574117355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057877857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578994971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466932616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528572811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616453089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711933391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846303817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759663542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765823562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798543666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857263851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956264165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926998472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104030883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6398778986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382093912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532255987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454182976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455187379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457598587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460492996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466413015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281233335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666962555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749871618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818491035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822713848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06512932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663333238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700173354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076505356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855373845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572932952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576892964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592333013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616023088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650153196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0364212291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0371012313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0383012351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0399492403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430472501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602594645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621012704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664805642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722043423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800480072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568063736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556170499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568976939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560552912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568648938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1689636085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1831964535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996331056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398308327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199780786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351781744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340541709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3716103297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373821814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334078171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.17260174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1542916821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1378499101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234419445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095745106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642609576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641275672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639726379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653007321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647044822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0399892404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419692467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456142582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049974272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574734557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525949203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053779124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566530531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007424726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818590129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1492854262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1588009764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1716136969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.188087469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1582305745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788693634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940967716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117226274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309280882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1485014238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544852863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563372921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060409305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664653242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751093515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1603233812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174799107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965249757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173741617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343798155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606053056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624373114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657253218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699573352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763263554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4299584254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210680985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308590888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543318031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011098711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753653923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656823617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663023637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669543657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682863699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664347241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674587273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069247013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711753791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742403488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989935471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877695116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766695965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697217745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667786452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460342595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467102617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483752269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503972733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538862844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750933515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076849357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790653641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831373769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895973974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456482183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442235338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453617774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453918175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460374195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659799726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077150118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077140038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079053964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808015295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0356452667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0357102669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0359662677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.036393269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0374742725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528933212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532653224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550133279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578973371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628863529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605495455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064507318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679153288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734443063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792219245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0410532438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0418772464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440292532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473652637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8537128152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615101913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992149506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826637383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282895539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779827235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531712821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447422554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479752657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518262779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576692564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451282967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454877378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462212601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471608631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484793073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231384963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747698233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332825207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639961892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132621451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387171128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638974725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1709124147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259258287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900151551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060077304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060709306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632773141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672253266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732623457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547892872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593333016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659853227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736133468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847053819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707668142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1679792854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714924165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1850228593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059376055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827351357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976417828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167781234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203421347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291385225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684613305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730053449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816573723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092001405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057494485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006390252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747197431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259267852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266591075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396766287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517692777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547772872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572852951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606853059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661813233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544772863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583292984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651863201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073678347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084418381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570532944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580972977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601213041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617333092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06515732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496252709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523932797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567292934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625533118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070521337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0349433448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0350343463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0351233486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0353263557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0359595077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535492833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574612957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646053183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752293519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895093971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069573334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717333409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749053509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785773625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839953797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313741624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342701716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893220293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3427301983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005020647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391052376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0395262389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405132421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042057247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044910256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469013023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483223068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509413151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543503259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591133409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485742168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880660654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998740627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208781292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212741304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139497909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629927024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656360308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503526625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412938774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474188968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227235786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265269906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257986683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416577185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577102457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164598368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963308287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291336372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095620934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764103049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1510333891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868103842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979915811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064260835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3693509659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392859147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792893648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348968528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280101518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465081132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665221267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693191126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712788355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432261999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422738805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624500304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084997767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437929195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147421098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3911795335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481646309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587096582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825780028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518782273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542518748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1534707763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829334575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743732865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571968041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422415346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168540025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787464521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736806409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251901428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3700071961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1415885342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747446634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335696995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322626565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673626968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430209869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794744388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368091523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025702999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560092364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559508363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819716875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638260615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3562716256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3721036612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543228026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947106023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3918553677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179381199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4188944393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1296795632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603145371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4075769754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3576542456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571284468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678961269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592836824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840033182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349381737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470191137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1698233714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752377899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258287378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197112855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4005408097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234671249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582061766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217668901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3985277903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4019027381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312857909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084733382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717761755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495673496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4210401381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081364979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098795997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603825793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736582962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1413224324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701247975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714925463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527542301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781318077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414878493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072068041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669500186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158099549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577510739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246774344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572528492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404868146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283445616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3817939728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458056208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757349847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368235072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503664933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3783110701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5719817915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602893046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180747566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549979943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028263885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302907806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610022678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3985716994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3678022777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638177829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406113827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761943006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826152125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170222809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3562490756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900029811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4275535891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476387388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4000374401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589813005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506347198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544145592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402578741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382355211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650773598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448524239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203101274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298864214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228182564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636973154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387590002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516105737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555624465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440391818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583766094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227259079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101940954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3683026437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1603728844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888328719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617282541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245788844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3864903368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1397079364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575389423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972710056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335674176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766686108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143654005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666973249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521016982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192174023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109164598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235004616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695973341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864323509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3873927944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124716091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168574836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069565334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1984577418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434654804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084938809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1368319093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678613286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299391067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906463499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627781491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475494206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760893546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047577618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265365282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856940179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070940856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590062498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810940033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280358001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102660956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431501997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4092824089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32113013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3404541911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318103525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089460914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336861697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974860552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652062695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619963661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4626345777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6671392248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315434112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626302613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29874796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248035315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3797874981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317108006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492264258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348583214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3759463034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4652945861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980820571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245753747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202552572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113509473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668773255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849576991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202137629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242188617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4716666063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977334231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3803678236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371701807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4774833066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695650696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687591379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4731747455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493008985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4650748694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.385037696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970624714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.441042927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183102222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359182668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808945378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099272062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504400336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3918207377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.440338321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771682542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040044011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338710478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655627071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4056003465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718801535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020920971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357088729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767164936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4214000461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935875193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152990634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457713851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3732084404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4137100189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863561646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152302834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3477215296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3802796573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4177682869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324140298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136392744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926867647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755929619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566459889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934486251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217150209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575642443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3964701439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4386127126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684889538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970482854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287140738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622770967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992182345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814498948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044009786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3359997525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624724017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990674163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086887285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303154772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558753743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3867051646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4246701115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013486206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327518472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652294723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4047350868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4410062783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823703576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091043962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411725017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.374117047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4080876613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332526982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180255526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058168678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950426003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4464683971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609747338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218665601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910297074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598360309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4000665788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4159608563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1805370336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1661286172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566658376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419037514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071536021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896271123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798333603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554721043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420975743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370833017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208096209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153199787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953671454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278077312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3661559936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4039800618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4379243372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516758446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401879151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334854565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3607590127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302438719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933745734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685725171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231252071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502584353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3512927303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985131995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949686049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187987517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440564645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3756199463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652409958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971591797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831007487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712420098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616716702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668189847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556803285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491685638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483261859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466483575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221772444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434855827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574798468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3786011378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4006244857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291705633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618116278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480186815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825365419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4232557754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171490581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381609006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229727325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3959484477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969547752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062421538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477651252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277307452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3875424969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4129576223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717963321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509852386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263916091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890190464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4197928066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903526321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089509452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410298905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890222022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4168785725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399918761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128688808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1915854936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715350068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523848664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714383837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1504161949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355930216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245666865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121328745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211208706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480255936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286347773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.405273787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4467867798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741431928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526406976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356383631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3924098068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.420400757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045891188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376846103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840672964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335482572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957227755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526854738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981892292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411846262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3900835249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.428710162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788350825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045524376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277488428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544347605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644657499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951061422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259180589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432470495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1545242387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740263581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006697131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289242469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675576009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3914562661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4051439215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4152974362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4302920225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4484752343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268508467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519986242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216854732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1940809418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715426726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811061718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33272146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534260649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371874265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990875445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456418086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160519846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950807371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1795396479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1632311947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3948030718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570147389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293806698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599423889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193645703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449313175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818122665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091692642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383986253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651754656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035170278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426510532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822780982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4203225821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.462625604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905913822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121284566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382329409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704288346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038114055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076526322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884192981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943865816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326872879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328946029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331334672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3882527688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4035090208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316724241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216035093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577530986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3845186049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4220840448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871613961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618910064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288285537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155419526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088094607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309584463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745877023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3273013962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769947017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1973477166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051689726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857935081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693451191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605252982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524606825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468871932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775599614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126433918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482777315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251633229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1831965823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1616071758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1463730119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354655877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265736971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851312826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951558248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100136714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241005602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412097549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563204191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681013972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841193803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010845143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260266005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151857833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034338794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4345787652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176012801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1625047209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754884985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462457435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236390122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3963160338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4195310302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714218655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887724087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301038752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959717929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920097844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269677031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817285637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062343346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992239497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892276446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359662781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3832011676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4091909917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4367294081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4708952989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3637374882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584609903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605697197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619639573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719978116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012095141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023386377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10624261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144824761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1368055468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082202414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833575376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878457518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954344158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138374741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264938305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2252298265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300898419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413562321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641701438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891617124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981537409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123097857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308898445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527979587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081901383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829174162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871337496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956279765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192824913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057577649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206858122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460738925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710939717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014140676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811054605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818614929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846818218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911250022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111294826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663979568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770859906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988900596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203141274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536231742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020534368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099654618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264175139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459815758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862337032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914054431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925535667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969264206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056734482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292495228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713054995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721416221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756435532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829895765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016154354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013224861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018945199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046388646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100013419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265795144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911094822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922136057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957498168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038184824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239665061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913095628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920898053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961508581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103386641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164866425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744533495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798253665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091993405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126414703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1579736137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019014363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051854467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120734685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248215088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536576001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915134534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928944878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962617385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021390771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169280439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013334445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026014785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077498148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184640487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444505709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317250159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5658714352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681997011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4551714763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.391346598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998174297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106974641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196214924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317815309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1521575953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914024131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930914084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976777829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057850086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283065199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911144822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918997247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953764157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028864394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121401498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066574514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167854834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386375526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664106404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084778135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210193779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205098116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320578481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487107049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773990656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937344143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193308949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5246345078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4531076579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753740698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010176335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018788362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049464859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116374671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126785515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822693842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840654199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887577547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978359834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189984904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011215538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101794676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048021655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111651056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275498375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1703576529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791616808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1970897375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131114834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088910224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912134125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092646447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969824207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059374491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286495209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362778615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421458801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538899172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699003465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067068462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914024431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928214476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984054652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112495059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471625795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101817486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024015179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062818502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124040695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260586727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139934746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261615131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457095749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1708056543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124577861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137904739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167054832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250105094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1410425602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.18206969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515825642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.177665676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1987537428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2252578266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634579475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815103722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824023762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862024266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09357541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117094673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514939096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640939495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814292379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343061717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599147887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914054931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915826437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940387314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988714267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072504532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174094954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151975184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157466401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203338546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357001033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941617282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058657653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214658146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397338724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666958551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020144767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039614828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078494951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145296363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298105246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131813531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194325168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5497953911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.49495868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850022243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816094125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835433882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088217433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978264234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233335041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980937407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188458063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404858748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528259139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674691117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.203569758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090817754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2120697849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228058189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411598664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121409538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12202966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243185072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294935236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142873566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352738583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588499329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292074038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302141587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872323012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842740134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011260667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328186994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816583215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4215374685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547339599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586909324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694499665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936112213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352182576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624933116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717493409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948294139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117281485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654576374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213618143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302858425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477298977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645778937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925787753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446818881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477058977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548739203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680203497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896013343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921024453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934374495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989175869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080178157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310265285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821024237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846255816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916187638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058760089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407945594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235755365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330624018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169055329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009788905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.18445043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562543669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374671918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365192883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087479149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864668668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464039311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215370567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4079807563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.442314564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4787997456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255799389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308008819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100580825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937612365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1747842624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078690851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514106097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360919629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229944769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921382899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504192663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382744305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305074622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697903982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091446617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475638441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326945201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195957849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212844826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1977705337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503517455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356815648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227754413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186723555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209214468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3452784101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2154290391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1978243647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1807498737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615988572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553574278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617735146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684161977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731148591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278027388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269187526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3273197265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272383648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3841982436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4250231477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251816207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289135497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105226188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4176576414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1773713348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3359296207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602454123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881894252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4115433959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4465402226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542356969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241452078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276527857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162661091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020697996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558912316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456410655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376733355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366698784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291388209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495164124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330398949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202374136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067749713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1867942254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264821292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401470862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570779515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152966824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1999305215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566086142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243226533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322525273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2200240405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067995998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583433764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270644538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381572519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627734885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3879895686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097406308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393656428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225539564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3921288036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1919111971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184049957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393253055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211416317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3975037239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1873802621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503215879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327214299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436189741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621514846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184000961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472244454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352145189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2222468697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3886385622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025981333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315868927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478658957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353021404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250780577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123830558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420413997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258082132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100049818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965338459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803082893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512423228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410291087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3598336359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187251387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20817058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250189493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366821177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600562337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3785773738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4049827479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568701127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409324673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290188663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176207914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1998336791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270927485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481392536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186129954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2074579872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926449274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218000836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420881931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3670833891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3917787528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4319899183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471204598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220231712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2019835363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901365295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180713809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566405017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406040697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231309026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225092273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119207839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530875812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281750541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061309032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1852810982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1672535755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566496597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390534966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237112927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111810196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.192156471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420119973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242742002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055702733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894490629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173275513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535949111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379430487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602563546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3848667835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4191472061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628684853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496211543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343458631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243505734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207774786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277396772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310658374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213228349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2019099258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863795165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525321503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383395612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3616822872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3878620948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4184661021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470190153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454990772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671150237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898374531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926232029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325618927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300516179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212555451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985635785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857681415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225682921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355235729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170463764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200976873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1826986425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496665617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406845088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304420737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258497497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164144677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244596452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352255849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167950596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029715282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1871976271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230219736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232427696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166815399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020437942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849707614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508795239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389015768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313862026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259764261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2192931676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531840747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386302999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265306744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168446663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029164022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460385521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247282786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065470871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898880412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687799262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250291478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362514456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249618041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213253941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.202191197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318612047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365817828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163580989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073601168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861070642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281893908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380217285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292797502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213017101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122938511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566944606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238676674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216615345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026524076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857333511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513821383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411902937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294679445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190676959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2017124139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430115516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323811432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245038719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174884228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208829441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464031615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529873072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768794223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4066212486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4414217665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515629512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388550853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247208359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906549302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4258762353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186650391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404824737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248124085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129634255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014478399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881764108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813369368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727131399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654891867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596945884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607827471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385237077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176327609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1976269549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1748518046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549979889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403253771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253396576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148126004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4195964576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213395562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328899479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493371974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669174526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3943949812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282720805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230649766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176264661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4019975038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4391423216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704569886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738207489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079419131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955052425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635210541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647833651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674738147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707237129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749965771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598911212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06229595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661760899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070762437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770445781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725716107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746427497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782297515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830323401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.763789164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541190839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564186023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616816394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684242634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779233027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611207425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659422967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7890245552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851492028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025483495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597320867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063492261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068606298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762567501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857181686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433760562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3447484707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557346831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307000176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162588013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525573989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525768072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537027043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054205946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567386024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4152381612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359104852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487622158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262441533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3664795161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627987089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635929162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663237107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676737458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720391273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549484291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551485327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590905346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651713308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748757149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650586755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761621294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918690338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049104196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248069813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996898275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956518944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972277573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980829301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239139775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452734591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457159776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467050198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048040736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501556336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861655827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092728517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051517991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185104264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197905995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522468415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524366003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530615661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537049112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549591877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103686419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101672487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062207651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108931812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255828438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942173798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848862027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860836861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881483423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926733445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593457848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617568808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656010551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698365745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078131958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566140506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588843362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625538467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670098489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728272312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876909283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791540964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737739213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734579556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781671304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574637493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571188661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579693358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598199229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632687091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544834289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554631535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8881544324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8644507309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665078142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066841823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623111656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589366121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565189558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554929897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466139429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471554274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493046377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525420572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575604214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626055364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630741573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639950888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649539514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666287798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812931664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910862748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056035234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1209690484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427104386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4157071269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4122933321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4052691907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2395208318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280828951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733448866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7374038397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890345496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999000723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146931832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054973636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055940671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586584999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622552948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671674007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431252391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431425008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431980612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433259836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0435326389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622942262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632358846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678289873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740804387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830385121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688458934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691839291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697289625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705744715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071980093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499483235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529836709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574767838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631423298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711872648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3749795203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332311735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387484177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3823346964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3705208974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044005355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457065983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481732964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521567381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568954301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993665014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4589631831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118518525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4264726496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372070376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691843036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448808932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368222685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322843352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29848087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5593416816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455863021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155113893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1685380377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681104513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453786054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459440884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471221924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488208829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513834704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648458137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617243649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614627169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062608364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660937795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578018098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589492242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613032599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066115745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736293695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472967479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739174008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241760466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093346599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209622519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529631357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616287866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062380788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624881001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639167626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633700626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645158477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666462281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069463126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733401969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719424721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741016456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08011789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836157193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936561726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512712204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528590832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555984639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592956382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640790199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476284944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505767717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554948777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616698807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713517821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4030829827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3756519345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796691278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006450004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126760409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463158731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458221142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463512869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476625979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507541511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333224327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325450163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366519149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919174098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907243057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567968097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056845258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574700514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582314321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594329572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324898439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928691344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30056569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109829366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278876024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164001807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099587981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071139691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382346744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085587974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464036317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477452186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050046668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531035661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576451546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831778574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846052374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891804131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934286242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010460815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102243155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131139721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191967338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259725993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934553416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218363336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171985037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149548054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165762544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219283968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238630498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227978079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263630166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6253916802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1473940616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628807434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06362033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652202425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670832714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705160921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641010202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657017807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682306513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717463686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768234056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165975634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110080089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070828345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079880419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076726279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3984140148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1635664835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199139099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700449851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330007084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4140905058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1821248724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441628189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593318076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198352862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126449563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15736217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217397384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985070683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812898183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4606037011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501345802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258552922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105553502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321588092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4079387124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1788118446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128699064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044941402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102969449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4307554103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5818072101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189078404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813898183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158519045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197243392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.154536479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169263912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4301962721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646078099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132449566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1658113122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335768133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360527789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047794852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1858070119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308104326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011905902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3653795155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270379468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4473416255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499000973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230724977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235657015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831036123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4178209211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5787934155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1177931847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746553322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198001824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.39696229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593285503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145621831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179794417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793105069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.447412798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1692845553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732761591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038728985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743849945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1979055958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1552271262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536849341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334504913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4483795571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1397656095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967862776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350589853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834174055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4538416288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1417311277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053483509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327381199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737277455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4719623275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453483709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115414919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829829226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956794806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4174541623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1764988693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755575395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169334223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390507956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1889354413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524526645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477492639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096113638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4713795686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337862962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925862755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30396914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958036186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.198579432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1345069862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002871415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930415983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822829222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1953277063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134827676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985940372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386001918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641346373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070346087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520380294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121132014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074967279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984070682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254932386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816320098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1359552972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073794865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034898294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1947725336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1417181967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153423559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624864106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552794604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900139105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336802616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037552811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358527788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597277385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233159137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1616167449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287227974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3828780626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833538748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4200140256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1630207935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746691253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856208549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1947794301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103144936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795691278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708898131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099226684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605372989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351778379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930779325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926778822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646595875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11795884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083206995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4346174812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466242837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1809932163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330104337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109890629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4208933364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511104928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955277064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481380275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240285327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177553538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28551051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448782138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1773816283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383031605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077486677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108186606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4873588869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326345714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025000736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798036106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276898415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751035582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138862862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744871285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4024071203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417794537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467979389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895742206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152283383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474522307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983941372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158760425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938036176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977243093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686139499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203450102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194346649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123243166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983760337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878967181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259706835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033534308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809016955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089396405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334879287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948981544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898878071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783946979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732222815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405292118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055932787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363622096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886691323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827400485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607262444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308124363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4015849356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581770445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3715691738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516380793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726105036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981346543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109208676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1749630409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252526712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832940295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136656465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4144174711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3787484877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227139269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902483934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391829507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106001778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173001311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122951808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747691253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517622173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304104825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921449461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1552897552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247758767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628070504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651004916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4422419095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754544802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930348882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691107884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641967063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3826553862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377553137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561656678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606518769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349070865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014243111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382001916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768415902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4192657494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870105108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604208423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3637002043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840657318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4008416022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.406814019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712932615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303658795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377277776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805002128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201381136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021381046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847001648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292381181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699311919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058243133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885967185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313243261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472622651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540657168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385726056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3716657256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2048070214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1879277026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1705380387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771346438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092656943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481346793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3937036676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4466485217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897346501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160346632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456174367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37355883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4060726394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897001673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299794978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3604898579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3809760751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4057278116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345907092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939001694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340622585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775450389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4216485092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372587617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1952828787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162703552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416690587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242518086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767967626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3798760745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404897978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884829754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4042036729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185346645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547794602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276380673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104690932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4584140449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956863271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611518271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341656067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196242201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116897334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186245299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092666448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795603725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119760405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307829465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461622145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704381388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362070371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051036233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181346643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3359036387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507381289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3683967584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103208673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217794937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337658812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522588193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465277319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908312024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990691375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894208568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334657065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756380913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376863482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675173976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304627761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415864002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752450377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157243183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867553382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431105389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377124349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4147485058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3824312482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567553733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.339434675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224794941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531070956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056312098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861622345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678725702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662277918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257076013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199105273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989553444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825311982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647381359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252541528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278193265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571070475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388553143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855622843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213277193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289000167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789484378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232255311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381173829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332208287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332638821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638044146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065966774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261472567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336691548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686078653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142251295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266813949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141588002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718898636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169208205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020897786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184355287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1807863197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760208001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3659484813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391657093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229105288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219312179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494415765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341587101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601828611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103173689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256231185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756932637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3583381327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329248463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368346737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486657141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3765174521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565346335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797139554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992001721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813622321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870174073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015001732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149898351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674829148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632553265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848829235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31293811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26963464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263882913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796794726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970070675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993518963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375450188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752105549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20829323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863725294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163610449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288829455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384139848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545553722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709691735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3980347043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999346552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131898342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276913954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435173856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062484014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543591744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794178077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092660985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34804198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949243079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280255335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473381272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370751932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.401496775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818701914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078012389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33969091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3809840341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834311987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263262223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415691087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226759958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000035707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117346611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865760278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839243023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291510513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442070911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889449945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218691489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768863678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581553239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277449639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616760153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045381058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442070911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3912312526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453864021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378484673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360174319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290553594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563553731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225151306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504350846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703075084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3959075212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4425450714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560035987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3910484939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150346627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3611381341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3961967723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274553586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315105331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354795006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587415812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505642701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326141921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147902177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026941944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925516638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699863643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961967223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274036345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585519259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.401620913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2147173712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261725493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4095519514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749932634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449484708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782863685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994312067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283036349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567829595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439242823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851380961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838139575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587656691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392484179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217622023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110553504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941587902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277596713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411277793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490932504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468242838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412553655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189898371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113622471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816208529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073449537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1782483874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1513897532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331656062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183380126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175725951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317450159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453519193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706105526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3954450478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800424039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905113746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170484569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3490588177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4050691906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339726033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737484352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611898082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3962278068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4465692113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702484835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678760184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4154071268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594380832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657346381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5052623442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5415899486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1544587203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386966434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127147339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535880577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556089467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618598464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718410583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096169898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517657727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525314972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552402655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605911216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744996458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515150229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520948518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546145883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600470706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749196491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537873217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721761116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000554308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152287059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650659323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421035417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558897555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1784104564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4604726666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855691808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515218505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516841609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527986711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555446742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061876545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260552578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484828552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4892933707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098933309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277622553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601356389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606742599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063073607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672854784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773590955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970734847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052357991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315276743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1555759622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023449512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1594001021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1692587277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811897682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2004932261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202242705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604829502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618317188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646706798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07043769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839656247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690105752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069289887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071110801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757662071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861721703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603037421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612767426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649890548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720563687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933561035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784553029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803735108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850802718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932010689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113821631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541932218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576508098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646991926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771690264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108104226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779001996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797485808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841593489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920851718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125081821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515933933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523592213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556712229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632840543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081853934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301138805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145051819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.515645108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4519105933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562967023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049802473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150690454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1640380354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848139079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233882898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106104225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290552593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601897576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1998483982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556794606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06021757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611698119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634448475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675595402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077175202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1446725085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1592587227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925001187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347449674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862243035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6712382893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6220624026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5237485603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4461036939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626553762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1723897638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1882759786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21313806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412380741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679001564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517796692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533775676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563065708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608021303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702838506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320043987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382173329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1708483837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969035691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537932528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206828413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348794002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163982863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.202541503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723691241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1512932015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.17117597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4368692065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626450314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286007062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852293753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934229656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252043953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1495621661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027725376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604726412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609839545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633180674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686439877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818272715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0892397221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081387316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303630186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475138892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129346116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773695786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078259787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810336835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857408928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952210355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493277177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1668035885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4673312907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3969795314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275036345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07737951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778245878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079662927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835295186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946880438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069805299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717330668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775561301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088132825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149380109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261768096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374621601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1683001065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1820035617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274966879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526312211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550314291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608020527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070311023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931604138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343069861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1489104417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729345916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047794351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545760118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516796344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525696003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550290843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600024316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717960237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518863941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531867051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560909145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613660934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708259346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602148828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602252455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616530325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647711926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703366551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069176238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070366273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750197964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830924308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018176682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608150186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618258822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652009256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719653687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901710674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1804966644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1939518435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187484077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394794525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775174026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602244411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609074328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630336073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670465765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787653131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210000829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142044921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868139089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426897989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863587863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604770874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611370619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640042281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698953418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859371688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514449257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629483797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1886759788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104437138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2384285899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618019584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643901235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689094016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758968534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904095503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1992725358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207013919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276104811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507553202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833380952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4906209575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4426864508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3786036601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225898389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722415379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265897408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404966443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5137520036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4495243852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645380857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1584768258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665932091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179075974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965104655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169242688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2165690962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249277211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502760096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806001628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227243218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600588462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603555456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618489943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660050929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748820684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619526743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636277797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688250654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782518201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077311107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687417898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694970919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711665421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743577178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823146583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040724882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200414617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481380275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1877001162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484760087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515116005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519260155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537143685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057256603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648438492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012691386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811932665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623208433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.245324283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255001352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734242971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556622192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320208281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188139249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993415014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879415457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751967118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624139468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491863539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968933244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819561979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608449804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239807901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205794431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4410381741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777070579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258967371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548346326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595450299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407380738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542863565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2384346244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229070304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106242657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964656379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667449834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611415323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543622186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353310544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762071072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652449827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252503597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385001417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226169101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099415067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700380885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562691161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388242798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3809864199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4171071276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846484406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352829487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453173865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304897928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4291312716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136691448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327062255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440139876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437415236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3894209069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851113719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314689835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690066742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617528775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504170097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500035957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366691063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243691001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.399620912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4289726508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612906703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561001505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414963156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332268977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206238913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693001571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501622165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315311727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139897846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1934173605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394553646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466070923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3598519266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754829689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974657385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866794761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716208479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564829093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420656607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260622044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833760262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262231188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764484866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213828917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006828814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719311929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561104953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400173838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273897913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133001291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639829131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464450233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3710760701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.396689876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4302967894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886863737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270415653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552208898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822243516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4224243717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579898066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495622162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241572557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355070367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3924347015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678553288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524139417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362760026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212725468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039966761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896725811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830622329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27365878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636898095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500725613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527389419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406208324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254837559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122449561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972518452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939932729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867208555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749898151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672105009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571173924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684208463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418484693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322346213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2140208191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1943828782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789898171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721760206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654449828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607863597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510518721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897070639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794656794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664036039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530104938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368415202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820449911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185208714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275001862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408932964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3646553772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994346549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284603613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695656745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562656678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389863488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313534662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262519097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521587692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635277905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229038068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658484312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559242883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2443760067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234193243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246484106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642560511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644839133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688242948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711669166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844395095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593898073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535932527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414863501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370035892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260518596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672829147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478346291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272828947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082346093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1854552875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814665425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764932641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687032258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651046033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659273623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802217143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673173975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526756315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396149353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224480302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600829111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531242869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416484191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.374341589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4012795335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656760173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338565709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405484186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312415174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225346164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703070541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3372139842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381863484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2232690996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035173655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658863623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347945024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223262203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021208131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1745759717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833518883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731105038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604518768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493691126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235534623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835174056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726242967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600932559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523898038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412760051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872691316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779725752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646587755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531173904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397139354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286813959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722622275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569242888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426863507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272380671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918622374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761001605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598449799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458449729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4115105731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771070576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639518786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464588164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363380716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233208237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725725725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564311851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3664726195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287208264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156656475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823898188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266789811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489794573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325656559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149242678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690691225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555587709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3576381323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3815553857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4139105743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953932736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847863717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699242953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568104957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441173859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737898145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692311915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654622241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449864019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3596691678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650311894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377657086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565139939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762277968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.403124362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561208402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375897964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174587518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4243795451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4691899123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542829082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240727729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269346186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216603579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086346095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692311915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619553258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256627737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467449734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231572552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910898232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753932636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590449795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450966967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299691029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814829218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696277435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585277379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498035956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238541521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298690689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883898218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746725736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624829123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477898015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682105014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567242887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246044973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412966948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290966887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536725631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360794508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174346139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4180829902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4586485277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576863582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527346316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414380742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232951863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199484083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521119238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520210143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519891973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05196647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519757009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779563866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779379774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268652771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042940899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235800358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587105419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601250934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639996554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644478391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695391336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541209769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540993404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541198405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541982499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543568415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466095812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049350502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532959734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584914501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649507049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181172954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254133266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351808682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842828505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614418439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598641832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613915988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637872909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674062154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725482373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692181777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688529488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714755509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749104747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800028601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430288391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437288434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447243118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461652611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481579514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422573358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420755182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042371249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429678952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439140697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535334294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054330025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557612225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575073095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06039564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466186721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502005056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558461206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626188768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717100519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629275145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064995296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064799532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628483069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627616815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764642995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687790394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735938327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793826756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868372529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746819287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774864875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776335813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794152325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819580048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940438745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923222763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929461426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951688793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995690345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451697573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466379468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494299682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528277895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579154476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802643964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892184801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038450879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194720183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956310074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329665289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257447723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248025865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237561729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090652011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419482431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415938325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415405141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415976507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419124702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429550201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440232065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448733465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460781244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477163586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593929715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559247749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153980403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541509037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1542702224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755252853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360107707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291233125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050110475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054708676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487004992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053219973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603475035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8361413139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827494172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436197957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448572555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468506277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495792757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509118268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267332114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206697961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139850403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771651105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965904206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083886968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874744847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930051996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999688998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089247562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3811609633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710481753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129963088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375971411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998242526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567155334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591440892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608172782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621339202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648938865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576107645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580005389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605109132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644325209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706395928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131644106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199793488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094559104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055413327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373703321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539391579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536357021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539834763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544846148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556255288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428300196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438396148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457783504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484414072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527290619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570824969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384119173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654745327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304747925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206456596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584732682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608927331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651645695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707335023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783982623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520551626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521155265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522873468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052484259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528755925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225600345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250044222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639833724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707014011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910514879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626823771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651745695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071333914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786846726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906267236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597289554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604903222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634335166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676960348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729052843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424061542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427652466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431788847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436970688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447994826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956175705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745064349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767563991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645983926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712609211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445391178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466209449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504538703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557971204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643494296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466788997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479987235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502715968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537607481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589506793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757940239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808033635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945059219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066716557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106079835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800864513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09511797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124941805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301239376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1368357844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642380655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638955186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658517088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685096746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723825548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572482175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586413144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607641416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634936987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689096309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557857567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595857729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634149711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684966291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748338835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467562182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482436791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513021467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553163911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608899603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482137318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424517072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3479181396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649779221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930697238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313008062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022992734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119784056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239464112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801419237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877097111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011289047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184996607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139980116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522467592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417337881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0418079716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420652095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426129278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434062948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465470355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496197759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546208881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604505039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685616294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672534494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223432578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484710056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042242714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322692532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507232351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522415598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547781615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592516351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666663941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067924642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320789357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002924364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409880646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922151292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814245025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086560888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990564868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093654853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227882699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3935746527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3741991609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722472889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585110485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788105266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519870591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0407006473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408017841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409746485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414747884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414845711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415209349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417266531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421040183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424151583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668200311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675875343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672129873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687114937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725714193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720330988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804373619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915386366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7016634673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071945215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411670837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5320156845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7336306091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618099435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985039726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234834925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4813926166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6683268392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244736862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822598203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3800567625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235827802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761687528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618170722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148359474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359137683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5404388589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831707791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528579791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149139273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3605011148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5398150512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863665643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1507232497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293197969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165508087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080490792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702471366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336698135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330695368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576078535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175154393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279098827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182964639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040721435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3700183064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321104093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766005728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461704318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957136304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713267259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783190414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270780609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741438627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793872102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764267612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330844381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801869517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743522684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475132616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935402059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327962671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718088279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410180712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541293192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162143698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1641873102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286839618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3988094633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240546864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095733609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427500081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129177854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723730636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1603510355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165871071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429096686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823297044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565745084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447520369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926522066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.161996727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793314602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659463612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355369375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090355177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757764218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289574546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606794018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106507181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146154767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945074599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362217188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432684625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100734429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741980541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743998944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877885032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274416988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094009738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355581191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167144479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737406769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1538488116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081007072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241019929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268211765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590117056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1512145276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112052659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487156415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28864224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145895496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139502303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812324108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141277765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913300054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156234419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338326352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998688539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844377224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012627881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432802825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1409214677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018597715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1700529836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908784617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24924884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1346763531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898543112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1552405163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998247265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280371559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864506148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739853032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049844628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196598475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831426462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791344842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2001392127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11834166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801471789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163881933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107126379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256011672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.137003878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843551514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629109783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332550795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353337446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1359172436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897688108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786167663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688101766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385000924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252875834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909188157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757009957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073885979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2252908425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262413439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971597514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536471193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735723367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036702906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225098596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09043245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1598066461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644815651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4024543194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281507928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873063458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965230251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907202097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894432798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999870362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604243674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746953606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687869616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4336198557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106314336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717005519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1778293506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505584741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056440839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3427835268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3996719461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210811072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129107279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236772103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542563031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.399888316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246560993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197369852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343789455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3686063643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300692116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052424575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144752605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102515698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221198023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031929184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319152986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445426252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4144929237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4958796801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896612108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312258993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3839298337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611934059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969879223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4337340613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980241643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203936254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420312566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3917782671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203931383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547936489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156760772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337078957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3856246187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582204932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187852772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4289899053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404520271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035598242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956919826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532542262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3665465175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1696110696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201462132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460620174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185150478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573367471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4664985836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1569706217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595972349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072969213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579511778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4883441627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696765507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563493171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4088477749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1858866972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690786669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160094203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703968304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036729694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409841197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836336349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4320394348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806440063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006921365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342444392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645230763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3981693732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248901424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814729015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214074359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3640162611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4139979133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366311854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656343744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051560772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482567782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3977197192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668407675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965831963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280345786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355139403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3931005316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791669312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059321142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328210605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360468199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880822241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777188104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001063897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293696446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603679301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3939169684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271590877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944505385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327022101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3620184585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3967708773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286998636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069256539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296570798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543869436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.386450278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038825249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229907081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.348886168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621759721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777870882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549515415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232501205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115511139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961197335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825694464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2022598826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751620547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1525276875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402074605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188791799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429211249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374088122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325886845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3867677979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4122332289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610509094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391230924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199287442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047579605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4619045135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991623792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358779945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259280656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778410339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890318892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3842659378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328606953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983686648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417090553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4595909902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050778223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810270078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119551032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824203365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901921589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066593241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138019909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416249298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.170688554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160808372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699789238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462433051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484956296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757649693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234112929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821148279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722006751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299201867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606383954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128557393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534428702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3950113521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723565313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576192079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510269932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762444468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4064584005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905131027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667415677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539489935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789747811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212172065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009262643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206357051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821118787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360504729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546491891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782028471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604257596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350072747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370914079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351512573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768518928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684061906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459029617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457978424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748044391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603305387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496158449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3727307012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158104858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089918692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234532547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529212482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218364078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078941243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1381125256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726595965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251506903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851441266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3683097159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084942473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731485149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129688395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475585021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883063145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425739979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850928727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057449911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273235484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740649295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916948951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873684774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697260708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.458242525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3931260279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862865676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418229543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078320089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319656132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3901955684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4173816031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4377951727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4808900943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311691978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.161480606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057489927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678270042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503699766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723448589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939927105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211148067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528034439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3873680517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831504519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092538996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272639249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473665935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718317844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597612501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459281578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231309064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144510316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1987262519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396380589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711111968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162168954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473536904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871272977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935795166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254770898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561345247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840030446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419467725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139230375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709242861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647841687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.404317659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4526634045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837605291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892146297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960705327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044027044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425211747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955516829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656271621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601454382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3943732664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397364108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279634249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564171379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822048753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.415283587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450920083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725731666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063573296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3488534151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4193284074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756002639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122710361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354400157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602253317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883843248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370842461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083931426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990470794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459014837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3819459331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750862844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114219951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3591923138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4137476571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.43203771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820186239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232276143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37028734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4237444869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451367193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3683342071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885988803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3901433987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3901529268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967584121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277188034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3739956123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477109049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489380124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747551105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199439817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339961221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460130808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080380782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907210351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313879518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564646945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603667918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213369059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546274488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288678842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059465177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860078188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264890419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516541115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191297036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085925772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451844213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220591883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070372025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733550567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438999161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229957867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027353056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211386589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904188352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587986283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136989965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173094986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698551068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791444042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921920684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161936503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305620153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369873538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226630007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35028751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992975937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4527856718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3477406676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656961468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268611066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284219787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272746414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967541042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921268338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888433445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472032471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3813883393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425771505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336434467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314925052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286214182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362002106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3865435783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003705629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276318769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617538583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560337459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159030701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169803815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208193979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285764764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447828638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012329228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1991783686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2017738342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2095056854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242758012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093897283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950796062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984848935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053238317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282053385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219598573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6121164943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1626454076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4806784251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999315322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932063259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945154333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985836666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071984306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286871587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277167455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425888544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1622686202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1847410797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195613647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818325051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827927379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866190365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944919678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11130663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.161814234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5296634059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4945163581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.454373004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4105671188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478785764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600377192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784332522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082836769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062827528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848676535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947083319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095943954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309991686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1689302395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046666926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054202412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076386598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129257733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126998697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054882415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113329483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202791683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324053564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554918185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066292009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083020717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123168161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196650293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1408781198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303872228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341793185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423116714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539314937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182757844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935597929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950336969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993963519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091879846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363519641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315433555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494303098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4974854828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4376381856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439989345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093477963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943791032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097819027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058690613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294830257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933144623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940738292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970667965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036882338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228554975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1556538547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686222249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180261765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029383457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425846851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820881417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083229192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869528897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948517871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140234598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816110033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823429611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844251521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878123952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945206152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047882845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056158348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087314031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156007847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309328047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817154587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824553723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849328925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899064023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041974633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256908491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5843785129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5066530237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4323802468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519039837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488201017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660660627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1880172005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162184362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568375914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933325083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941325131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972961725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043826004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195020741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665282293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775055488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1946874403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2140193296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240180453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067507015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088279831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140598236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261780571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783600979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934235541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945337875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973194453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028535939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194810285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931053251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942600118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981655285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075191138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134165773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213319338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119011502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146647983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215602823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356333106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045283914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160784407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284784936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4448657806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4246943161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934100309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938055212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096321532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006035502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090013929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1595202448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1736691688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1913010623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062329441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301194097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051417855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059465617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106438544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203837142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1462963248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577468003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687332108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29267165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218759737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729851748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933256446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941074661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971290713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039234185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122587144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831973737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850464725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091456318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042126906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362099181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820552893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831382825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867055364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094170966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114051244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047735571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057100625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090695409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164069245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325475843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934428265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945977405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985065754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067564288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130356484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1655327705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729555294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869646801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20696022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236398007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824256545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843222876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885010781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953230618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128931822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477872402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5347434369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.466074962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001019532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339925802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156691045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163783362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192696235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257614312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432124502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391921757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952378694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128015807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941015009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515972008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885108509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033870507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277553365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1568418243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183602686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104779148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058564254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095007605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172871669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412466668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887451882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194920681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326421894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911363929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389681956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418569598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433421934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532513266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833654278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163120756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861097043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09680975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187143889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523054413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152648009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838847857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857383391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902592675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097379116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185145698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104428067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105511198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097929985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186061157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389541116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567851209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372435984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342739788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351982881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239431916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591990699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446828275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333141822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2209688988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087797086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637178428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369860826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235038665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3815709754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4156230238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264279141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328154813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415228119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691404105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3955061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195081444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302322916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409250133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277990408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128760627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186693785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385899373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651310971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3893687435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4219160465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507735983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405790969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229653888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3846315395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094767386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807087259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682114772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437552546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3689840133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062522994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700508497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622367839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523435393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428355381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321093603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633031096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303457003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392880975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545729811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3756129727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627452266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462421569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666189697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930594697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4269957504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737623331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262739081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517805908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400373165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227927636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640303502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465770698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297707907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148732889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200413872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565055885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419200153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267733521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4010404928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4401503313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645530224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364103019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369381413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265046599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139851948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543259601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421511551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746182007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.399993995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4351086997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601175862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427970363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286727161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146973087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4252560376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113459258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233509446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426083149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3605804806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3832703854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263880943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248245384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626550303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3916004315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276967954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346414739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475295147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624110936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3790705217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4040424473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721387589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592095831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499170177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399892019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309309868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605260419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518809225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3807874142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4140350808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4631002268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665922883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559576866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458851947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357840113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224589551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700980442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335686894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497217784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730810195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.406521869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436665334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290925452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112406724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1946551182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1749371601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629477272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462443999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297097577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141637094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.426637421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581560413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420773072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227437346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035762925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4483425393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374502374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509463079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304395534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245787456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178240925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638350618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474016944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285151228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110207269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933395086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661130815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570801857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479674561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354550792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210946724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169161108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357590472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311854487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3915156555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1948150628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657686872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478964987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230510359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187002005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2011281905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143235067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328724751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243478277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365198715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3939953104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250876148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393633932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714565377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163368099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060519622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267625263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3256819291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251250363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414187604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231660992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628100217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500042556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356500145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222699535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107692076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670839816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353931944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641451653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956359924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4297913942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266500728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386731603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543735413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722735805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.397971067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765710426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667106557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584574537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501699583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416826939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621286014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519114218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406048731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309885109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173450342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26129845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449370374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226612844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080753943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899446421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628399601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250097479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344607628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170734003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039596522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250510579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497492175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23976985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313988024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218779246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293867961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397056999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256803653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116435139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1971170431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786917097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129169614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643401506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429641034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3664813897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159518936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521279438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374152368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212452439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006919096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668345222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238525913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370832376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537516186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731920264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548937322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23684452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3802368423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040492618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1867731077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543266682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478192782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355884733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3837414383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2096558099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237774795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337483935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393929707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299706998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193380603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713082402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246150684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410323761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549112069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265500081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649534153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475810022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271733818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102054267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1931493526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627114799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248153567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325128162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183907798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205285384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535087216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386139993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3791179354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4007887052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4283485999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582992957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244399581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234530367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224964378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153811935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589025699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334417506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349197932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662451221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3910551681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265457872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584804636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450076377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332347178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148061312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595279951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461801259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230686024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158836871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1999576964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602367132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430470001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256230372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102312522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193160718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452169483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261052197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3973978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4228229124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1781897304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168302261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291858282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439019099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335258274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177640628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651288047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455121224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720598134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167345196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015477007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657581652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558924405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242020162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682670629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3949092021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724390381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754970057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796653416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857019583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941663581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537514583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541116872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551981918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566436525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589112531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601417583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631584076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660348289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686112036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807272553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082626627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862078241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907902073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957504557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465332003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476604778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049896851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532195924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581787045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736400887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788708383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834946762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915981653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024845754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703344382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711037597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745491835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785560642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839719964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041721907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426316382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043801325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454218773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475410682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422661821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426536837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433924596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446176921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468616108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532435016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540025958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551163733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565847886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592582546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467741558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496716228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543844156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598242115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677198361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3979518715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208339123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131690073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429352707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328447276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656969639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670924244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699255274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732587234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781890172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452571039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457207423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468424743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484165719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504627625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8449757437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701767557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774162866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7531911702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949559524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581287497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482559803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506878089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546196439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598243479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355715802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140366737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1527025624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737530613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729514215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664526489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689299322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747993663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834883125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952265899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890540181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921265312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976600093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050813592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059468174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621389487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650798703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692798882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763015091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834981307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670207877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688798865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715605798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755196876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812208483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26632182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806296992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735750782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284976445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305877216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555378296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562741965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574697928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589336641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611025847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909190715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932194449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877668308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058853172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014527073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635851821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702289832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077257195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087233283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985310585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3469128911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439583331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414946862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823126155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365719379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646675856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493115201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427459012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421047621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946910319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521389969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528310453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539584138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556875121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580474767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627242239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649652789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684253391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731389956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788287926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520014509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520673602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522775884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052553726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531810923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610330349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611768991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650623702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720371273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752083226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517729954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535706394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582025682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651053704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732173596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077827652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798419788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794043405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823808532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7558035905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425968653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438025523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462242899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498711236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549843727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363888564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455279863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179029402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1742130178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743837913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628618154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628994519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630298616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632566807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641335936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280142788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822444334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013842878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269193513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091770937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633936363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063352727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637295936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638021417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645848341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455297869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474400223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499377603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534855027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581514317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469014291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461786988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482288439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052083633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569294265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521094059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525582714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538594134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546946442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569777448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736391459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745314693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746049223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769437846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767319655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568287442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588196618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624789047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677382453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07481173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262297222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300151929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394161421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146879083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1537245668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102969532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009348415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002868842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045590842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089956941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729743131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734451333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075718643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077401832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804467541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1698019081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1585856784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642501117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1753737955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214829373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4305304752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180913869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3727448195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456612494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280446288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175309476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283953576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898767841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288762643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732036675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754963702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074554548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733983172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755102807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738256863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001717826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922031577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231798353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316088896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334043518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5133033739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5158181573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4976089887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1952406076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066668381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363931013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586645146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089350472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149070727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248893426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345854017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469299998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678871347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4112131251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553048992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449890193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325202843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582110757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960206285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804069255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562962874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586590247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595088011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615283097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066973742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683442933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704895298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773218771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781610625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823197621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337334623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990946871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227893336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958726279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340929911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529844551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539532774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555229659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578617032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05969012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801970257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794799772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809653472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085229229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927663521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3972256058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224703147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723436815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542754225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450890197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1209494724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132528486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128710288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125336637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163839074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4486281206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1372699511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1513021654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717703635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206548749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1413654231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178982775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251286249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2002706228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306429188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918970302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610836891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4572824559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121231037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033983907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398790531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896302388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1625450777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058313834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780151528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302971941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830892306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1793249464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141607616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7130542262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273802479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000464342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1766953478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118979294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987096303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899338122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660947075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4452394826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045441667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736738736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326426586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199611228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1948993698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309663124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960981845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424517914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289331205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786625415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193255563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996072904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355153982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676492662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1690501476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181153239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900663406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1364881296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602123366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895396922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383063192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6811461355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656596659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163910985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091380129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963970494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147380368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677196249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1655163004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058470897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797197055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370109045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996198587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1643840399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098066588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770617396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520563778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494021461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180054669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207789716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890390635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334699803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668477622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791114917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380290452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237028477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700603955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1630201984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088016478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944606775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103471089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674571327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1872725793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1319244737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126562097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531336551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027122424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178419817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102590754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808697104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341653924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738922442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862381823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395972338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360119912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520700142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536669428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587812723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940106756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7822545215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269835436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643891643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1584113732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112391582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968254603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164142793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725536132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1880024668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494427303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.665977889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141824516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775723293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941353345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238244392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888424717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221392047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887561144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143570002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087979968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667480593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1518334849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333646434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634529279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094936962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764924645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975603725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392435063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1814681447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011027513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424517914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615834088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617096057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105983454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840435876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394017784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605885513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522361518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049727603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900117949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1722473731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453485333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1628063617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241829118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988300143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1620895024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587503692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636923356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075107332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909924809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790410029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583968998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665353222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200619231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978425556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367063123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623168584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642807738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10953006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917572569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827792362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637237301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1769968755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136891687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815981226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302108301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592463714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4910403543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028970771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865788257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431427034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694965426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732927243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198437404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09313799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1568063981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741861635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458343431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307527538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850262584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191025452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173616919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046571315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005519972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203661869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627436405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697466919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465524176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3844755514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307361586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639466746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415963658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445662902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3852539638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341753368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108526918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410954406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4004629688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4642482173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748300557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591931986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915809555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895449678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058766487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552022725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615554742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424746252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871753064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397014156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4092778422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434695514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401228121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528129163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880393848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906482792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004562286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1513516558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095880602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962380033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069148937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439287532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124202693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746395265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550906292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997156721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936024364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250349048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1999611277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797803598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142611887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068603975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186698044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1835368092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687343124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023611379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271025793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123495523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941107999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618246013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695705156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236839718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291653524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068893053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231711103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433129592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618427952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765430629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944505434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152750743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464237143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450465944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760141262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880336971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137834467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337703954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35933058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431273328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242075921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068061091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193715019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1779924684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425481988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925971407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368554032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840969559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4281453848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824179692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027728781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254211314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346030468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740830252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978863951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159840405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417338656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681306618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990563452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309450562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459049397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332070226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851413137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094699558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098449583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540889614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990823465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397376561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.428626207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4509740998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1597267726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347283424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193150707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102579364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885451024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554919898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215762593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741530673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3924659753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167892014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014948631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074411841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114952349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267907752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699450228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786710432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281352899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127786501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467790256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3876287265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4192063701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288777535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828714404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683508328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602364051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536740886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930749832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166049005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509060443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045364003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662446181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1767601992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955855726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243417198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739855403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375006109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827879644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082720369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371040544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688884017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130199208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928539257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170477835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867649481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351100833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743633372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822476592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061850711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313458728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513451177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540403614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115572558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423867493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3732398211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4034069434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921205214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627764959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255142457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069718503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191282459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450980031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555660379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376250829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226219097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073916529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898576728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.192181306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699375101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1533450526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443606261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414719479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175457865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151285355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128144045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199143992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316816634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689874491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084205751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976195951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055134766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800581386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353380875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644149887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036695217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416307864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968881188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221333357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003525865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221909418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262910729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4075187509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353585899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989380668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567456493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3738067541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633380409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529485834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481342666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491929522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365914942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827518968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039164579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236633155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765519265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340187268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160956415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859729567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249894454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437181082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671058508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304489816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310406776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207209926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252313707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009084889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281459248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360700003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3879808404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4113188841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957517048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284488842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3679099534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033792687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4297331162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531704382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426336191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317332382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269943469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202762367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835841653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979168133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3512656872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897347298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396885956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553005969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077719169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288871363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699953283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579123871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865088435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233294757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595502919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.404541071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782410994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684717039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301920573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392969964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290614143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175431736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465286427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654621459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3919829883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237321891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499322847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817144785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130641851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582981037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931594577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768348219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573331631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3713244572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830992807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220090646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166204674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187165196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313797831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419251308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057936565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321046209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582863855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3923803877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3732217044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3903168368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887095603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3814221223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775180183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067687753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174625248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935254046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410518788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535679078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891096978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1673977006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147236775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337701415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244354924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2209568052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648056763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202925266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337653261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4173620016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791007669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536710623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270700965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057265506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4532405001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810477863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191615384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3556282902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083618448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752700405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911191845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190464687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356462867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4042234289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1794316522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507724622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161543606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831110183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430579822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3803007363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429130223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578410382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835566124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155855792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547166675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997703575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1719873734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.149202328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1371130081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285104941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062093498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830710059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610272115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148734237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1385001372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330561338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545500963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294804669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275093747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135271994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690524511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359366444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.245626892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563443592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698309375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3852269134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610446668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681874663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657086849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603369064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419326449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314418167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716073675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697778915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648128204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212770724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.336273332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419750075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315021446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186078138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033882615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034518995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040156842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058978172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110059835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261201308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266523603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285325047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1318592916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419167436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061744661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080020535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136498048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225607974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437154331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927244428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939883573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970440976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025528029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164800897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128986838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6259109186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.561583531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4961764685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4079809615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042994927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104717949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076952799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126176191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252928109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405042546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5434436798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4801706388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4213013695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690846301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171505471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123247164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336290265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148624545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717519164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921528499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928656366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955351821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010633875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175664579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940164938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954120907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004542485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088259206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283392312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899792038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990700608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6896727174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6382555434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5564117851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930937626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940490848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988244234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068733668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124884671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043176287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043848108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063075008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103656999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181437786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926334424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935835829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971981892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640923661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259289936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042290374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050428136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086490108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145361723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270846804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217789759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1397608708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644246124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1987338497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427794922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814062127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823518077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841449517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872447376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096275458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039880818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042473102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056111796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085028283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188836908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778571976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834788125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924061233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063243645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129615373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948709065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044925385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199562408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1449790749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905110874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816255318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826677181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853187749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901167953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050938592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141177865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292517276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500681782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1771063435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219133572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307778779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438988885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609865977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823655981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5570126513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108052781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181425967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344472118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1591700445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205142968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097293512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237877948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613786338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191140992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357765185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921543495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929063072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944448138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980266473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082654637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950129526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974561448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040970823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174516847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1517972858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815107586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825427176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859675049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935107189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130664387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040165365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105077041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1096116058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178916411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1385749112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922608504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927260356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941415511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966304595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104444811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250703712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266796053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349033223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483249704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739750799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926721244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936939924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097731146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056879981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274744547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946754512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991834249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095289236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265699054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707519121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092515306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930974008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096089514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029709866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217028392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928380801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946112241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984504691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043845949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180165053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453438492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1557984392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757610244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996122626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402067994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093025535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952063625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004029301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084338735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241119404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112956211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348926682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654109803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4524440233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651209234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172812749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198881042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263517681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383245465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1647884322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271794257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325430849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859887675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623977578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287071316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191903285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285790049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457290781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163192789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945292863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924163506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002516113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150334926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330426603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1677655358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038755813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044495838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064668651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104357911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1236382566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225465782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213521281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284112491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448324139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277931403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489886096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244829501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485204258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568856543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737697357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179494769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646062272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874610744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4342621275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711436763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926543516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934319004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962599579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007807499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111374386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114981356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157404501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171859108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194120567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260803579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938880842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952940447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101831209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102516994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308155599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678655362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1854019747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082566176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369158308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769563645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663084443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571138941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503005252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445347655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356703371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550842628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401709587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225305458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957331725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.428921158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619424919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252464161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427854717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336067331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233579912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628677333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486904519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235896026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760329254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4034871154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603409066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485380114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547368394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3782148175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4052577382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626992875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466929664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314732724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836965866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134273016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719697431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268987848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24157733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734273765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121655492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645452148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547465201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417975135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296894644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158184796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589127932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483313924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358736772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745833324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4003537633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556177946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454204741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321697643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203595346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038908142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776341589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631391641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450219845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671543747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135497726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679487027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516219634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354645893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220063483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041460192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260461799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477703571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519746392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299554702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127301087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221246512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363025028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498869905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639653576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881158541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632914748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524275536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393737423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227527719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112011923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255798422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501901552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476049274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458967233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433182779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614101231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326068817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532993995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376037699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4053088282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620152891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539575029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453250721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409892886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349557806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500436643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236738837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697971473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3837227018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139078041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527272668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618761461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743580127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3934865995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4218745173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204000134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601352736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583935785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598972193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581578076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474888552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401767764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233214996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690524955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3878102288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679611762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540859838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402551692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281459341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162672534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285171958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532096276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500149657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484253331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462374698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513923796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404392528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723109413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219369445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.408444174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575803773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248349132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394209224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288786098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136441124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264179155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464089053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290146354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3944812178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4248638646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513540123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243747265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370273583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317059864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294356258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613215238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325483423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462910887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434632866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365100656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267189954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541031503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459750886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244689643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234152915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146161742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599685412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504130227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431660703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387381359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598058841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442359834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274031757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129715568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958822058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621091541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528820297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444469429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385433568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301340813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551293011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.339200856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519360409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310401461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227168222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617594503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280609595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439639919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578473937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795968609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632162617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475911662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558528828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3800164347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4118042779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603297664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457154852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336955013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221787353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023241645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685558827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717488297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772925804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116429998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962112271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712727727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596876191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338496312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534025808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746078018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259486936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456764744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336445784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229066194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060558522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652566018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490173894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350974191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190202994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065699122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580756789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249029367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396839325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318556627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221072412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721257621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603067024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542707373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474356257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669892092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225336208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442982498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3665023133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887698262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018378413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525958601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23721678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224516355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129396462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2031314409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440258741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617681576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371992687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883243343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4133409993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196174362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260081813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324258767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3407074815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3541915325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932041073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798874165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260112982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465607981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284318659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262929967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303283096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487776782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446621896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345647081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685140363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343532383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388217154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260955411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4039413278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267688685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567723026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243014228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292130843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3950277311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660387941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526276967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375932632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745575589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4081727294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149258113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308386028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354242387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3757294349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054460349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644853242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553781109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461530823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376268466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227780768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653937086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507131424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398051387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698859261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.402137676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550317083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468405822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372108459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297398147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196865882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290636995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358594843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392585645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444791911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639336551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628962372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502403777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359816818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2252041377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118568697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334765937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412705059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682016045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3889848156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015210433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345559976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303690229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692472231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748611949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3837368758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261858744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520545185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509785577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697588005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3949675054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691394886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265331033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614849495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558572278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473529489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1859213074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206120775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051405582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218842614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238407916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278415445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278415445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278415445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278415445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278421446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283414551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283414551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283414551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0284014683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0284014683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801293091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738181133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760057971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822655816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791734977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045892363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462978611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.472699735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033846044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4104459661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391238398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0344820132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0345710329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0344428045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0355830567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785087507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840249707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804961903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820935435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847981417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778974155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077899616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780022387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780052393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781524719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1892252382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616098477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4209050794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051988884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435588553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288036746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290237232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295038294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300639533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310841789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925320868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3817468187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4311705498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036305415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146458605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0310820612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0335826143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0374434682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04224453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482258529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427646451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455652645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494661273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539671228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622889633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0312821054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0309620347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0308620125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0312821054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0334025744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278215401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278215401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278215401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278215401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278215401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940684266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028791753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210074675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734830737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411996507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.034322778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0343477835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0350029284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0357080844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0365232646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413335631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597158287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130582266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260865081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254999784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731851733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789224422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833586234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854998969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760272018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0295217161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0310220479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0338426718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0377435345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042904676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156660861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343699402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419508169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498026362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502878608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581438811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919023475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097481773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254983182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904182193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278217401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278217401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278223402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278233405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278265412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37840708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4849312402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162562341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5302724685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128683648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278217401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278217401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278217401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278217401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278223402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278613489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278613489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278613489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0278613489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0279463677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812731621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815732285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819133037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822933878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833936311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791438912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847051212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063036982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272425293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458266396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553724336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634230141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108039082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572350455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537870829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.038803769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.038803769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0394239062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0400840522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408442203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792927241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792927241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792927241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795127728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797728303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246019452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302031841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310289667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312364126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304690429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078392525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078392525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785525604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785525604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787926135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783175084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783325117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783575172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784525383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787926135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0308019993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0315821718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0323023311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0331825258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0348628974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0348028841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0352829903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0365432691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0375834991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391638487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107796881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091993386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077190112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088592634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110299582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336476632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347521075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855404577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257749219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826376984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817032572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078116864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811151272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834780498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804987908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607696618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250773851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4126864617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718153048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.204800483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283018463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283018463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283024464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283034466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283648602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330246081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1345649488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370855063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394860372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431868557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797728303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800728966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804129719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810131046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821533568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745166678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904433903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045433088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125667781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309233434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413407647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385257421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286457569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238236078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256362913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283414551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283414551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283664606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0284014683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0284464783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278044536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128005498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275636003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341698614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304130305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283414551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283414551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283414551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0284014683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0284614816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816856553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083148979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850592015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825194397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758927741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0293016674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0295817294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.030461924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0317622116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0329424727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788126179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790926798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809530913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838937417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882947151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787928135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787934137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790176632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792927241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801329099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1870173498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1527331671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648097208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789445644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358273453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386708915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867644112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030470124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805572383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740864899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4962771497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.466998474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4738207829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4228287049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350378534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457522231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637313996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787765272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697679347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0412643132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454252335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511665033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599684501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720711269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0333025523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0368033266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415243708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047285645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540871493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134936057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4439333726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.427857017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3856804887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4405926338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0315821718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0323023311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0334625877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0357630965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0395439327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0317622116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.032062278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0326224019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0332625435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0344428045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1828157402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159799636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893534689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520667024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393345055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1696010852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130363668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793385657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527868617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291922219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122686978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1403745606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183234739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1563097581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653991175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.185503223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399271708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004204615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0372834328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571089787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738927702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121737286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791864093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512865299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225919828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223152422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1709135698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2954112468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967965955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054351656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1651636385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327781982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549115662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552874148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135248971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1888368817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383057762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303482507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0372834328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406352722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994028285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1798324448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761988179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964765247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3951007965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752226241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714784418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536807431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864743125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3659782863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566194886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119551777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883031464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512865299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2204891476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955231917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158259806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251650212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647895164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307256517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757888056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5613295331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214350376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642894058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1799047977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5281412465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322824594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482858662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504532944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2137827768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965566494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423708312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.160310643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510801356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1742600585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168432832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059403724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496661715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189119767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4967043359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645295169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527868617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873666997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569995915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4703760371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540627565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502863087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868922123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937445254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150782123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043844035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424645787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181164944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980098189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1353789208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743600047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015776529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091333874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459468441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293379872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129796568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062368981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605748885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975017833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5422276708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890316286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467855344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2003278906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726228871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3903761427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130288751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967965955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835959136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.430923338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279631846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007184987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527868617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3848206951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4136195273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1388862416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325079932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420644902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211897251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316601618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420534671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535670343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2443632586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177803274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259748761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275952366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511665033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114908323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125363618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5674006802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547772378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409642469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418492805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3644223556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1329878944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3914359705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047285645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088126276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3705117042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139480067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919175694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512865299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271461783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1908235291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515451161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967965955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273419442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.166119452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838953068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201696763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487859768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895585356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1513258188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6324150596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311588276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0387837646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3653738729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1711577931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907952681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2063208192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527868617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932175161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1628064416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007974803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.467091408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007974803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498187288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861444347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188014623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072196307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056287636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795924624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26481025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753479919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5053669601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206500859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4207067881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764195078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344680001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31786627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041003281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561128374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250190522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256411898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667141766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594011382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537913184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521330689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088013679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658065716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160870749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773932449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194018338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4688788899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245604452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225812587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499526531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863766586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808373002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455976097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123651649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274255902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257509407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212528094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214182558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557117432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832587143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789263704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415518142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328045594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023199343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163009093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474330228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681261744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515855171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288916181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962964849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529111237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064087541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313484719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842938302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692055152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405047678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992855001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584837411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383057762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374583809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129601811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1967315359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20560066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537083462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482647762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300666134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526952491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273850244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517182494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465650266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886915778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826612231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060616634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317910843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575974423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238929486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572899658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931100564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219841503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531975744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382991266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123429953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1884281488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729270553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451043708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223574273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659799924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864449809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075880376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336525573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374776593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644714486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949053909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410609064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3806747574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697620499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414738943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841441949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332239879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736204213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660537303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887877333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091614936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336385385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448963822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546198148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583262398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553993344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3403600096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3847340354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472046985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515069932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268912602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843521759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086523214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666863817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794096756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995380625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198841908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613207864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660113195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503912369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966005383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.336154555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3801008846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729346474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336984535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749491441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038218083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3427919022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815882128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292507198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544373312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507683472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347872593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567741287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674954301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971440638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909731984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003856277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813380752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832496129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866916156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873783377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932165964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644979459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855284368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033633783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299578739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3732515349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832405813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901311332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878100865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847598185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997231048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993216064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413509292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4038270865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4581420288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5218546836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939151153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015386338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235188279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393458222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305852336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27326036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889952975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029712793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160721683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583263809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203411653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520833368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632471393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891163389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923949773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703562229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939950367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362630872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724692365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1884515644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684719804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304256553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263801751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437495233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207132978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798563434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957258483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689532091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690257793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844207371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734743859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712324489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664076397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608942708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664866767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815467904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397221888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3933850684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4331729686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4910414845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282898644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1988304118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4266804605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4763325559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5308367861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124164674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3643423783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084344538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4509633093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4722190239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967613088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041526124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084112506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216971314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376179019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942241067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304144219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581389119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.393355028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4249824816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631801025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345792058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045552551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189377843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664553055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522635282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818231439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014297847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272349478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550743343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118265653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.237605207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172965409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021954176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498447007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001579632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879134835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841302129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797881531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893567035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013955033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254224924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459196025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427591787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337844714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637998062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183554898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1865769696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476218828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220084572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609744736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960678858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367737314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2032329564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213193564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329326629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057302088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706482567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23720813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941130828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279332043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258441807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980610745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471078285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611680516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458639335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381653755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299549787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208312589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218872246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802681185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126042765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485872909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082360828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383968727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229292603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247775963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162758536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596262647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622942232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056277078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492319389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880332034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4289514566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307281871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072817421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707844941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4830328727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331268734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707324048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3949867275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4357140879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4432238925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4438592216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158349669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245435335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841492355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515419653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.383558081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349647257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303371297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958642169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709033435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282237844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667121426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596372091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613553598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129356309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355243507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359676221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490425197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102640575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985002622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624747331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867015406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272251586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160151685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1886049769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130375247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1850008369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1613886894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1388998589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141238281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283859583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3839809221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1776535487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1519555722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407566959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138131205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271138734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473092429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571461533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3607397523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013685812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998887604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450354563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530168648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461140535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757609496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620758952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362673528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258845063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2192642338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958380849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.17189622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139561827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120868829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134839793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729298538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1537751881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380746817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1247794627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130206471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266299787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392457371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061939391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877509993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1962720785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351693062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3576270769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987415386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4363249577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4865680139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990976523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221335469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161675892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933188816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714508349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257872223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257872229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579322843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580324564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583531274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078663611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078711621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079413777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080664053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208422084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078811643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079661831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081612263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086263291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105217484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867943832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962164672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117181104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356851966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644545583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078813644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080269966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082662495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090214165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124021643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083612705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099216156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125221908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168231421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230346133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788726312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821133479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966765689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208019048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6099525383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437758593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5367155104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1608919154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4724789687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583525272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598576601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624332298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660940394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710151278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208521506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100818511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128224572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168281432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236246464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079011688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080812086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208761359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110018545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193036907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6811717896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6335330874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5889327799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5189767532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4479594072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078813644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078813644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080019911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082030355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088463778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078811643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079411776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081212174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086013236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108418192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083614706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099266167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126022085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216583089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.22332458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784525383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806130161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085274047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931757946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153006881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083812749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099666256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126622218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166831111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223043544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007974803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984769671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098376945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027014892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321363465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079011688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079861876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208241244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088613811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113219253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788726312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821133479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966765689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208019048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20786156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079263743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208101413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085821194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105115461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078861654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208006192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082212396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088863867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124471742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740650005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6199968319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5901917261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.602574144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4795414816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078861654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079711842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081684279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086911435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108380183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079011688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080812086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208761359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110018545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203239163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788726312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810931223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085274047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931757946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153006881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0317422072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0355830567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432647557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556674988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083293609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078813644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080662053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087013457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108668247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191836641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638314217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.159270413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1606107094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168775332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895283292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250188663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314745773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450773997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634907672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.186544977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078813644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079413777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081020132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208526307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104217262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907952681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085274047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784725427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733714145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734175541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183013517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328045594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5503969195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4976849917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180283616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082991395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228023472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458074353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1748138507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156124406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1682171132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099084251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294643251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.391809544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4427758155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2043203768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068209298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178233633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234827124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268334535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079011688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080812086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208761359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099816289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136024297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20786156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078669612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207942978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080462008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084412882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078861654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079461787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081212174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086613369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110018545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578922254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579522387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581122741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585923803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608328758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228023472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5784031137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568541131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183455961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825475502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783775217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799928789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828735161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872744894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967965955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798128391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828735161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875545514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941760159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062986971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783325117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799528701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829735382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882947151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002973697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863163948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.196318607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178233633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472359005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4015116817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1251426883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068441558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081110254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073452408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4387292585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103217041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363274559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268334535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063429414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3588377651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078813644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079419778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081030134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208526307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210411524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583723316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589124511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600927121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630133581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268334535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257872221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579322343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580922697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585123626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603327652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003355924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128443793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303482507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308483613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279837079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078811643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079061699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080011909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082012351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2093414873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078861654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079509798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081812307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087263513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109468424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083812749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085613148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088613811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098215935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133023634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078813644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079419778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081280189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085863203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104667362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196162641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394484169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410334078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313991591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271065248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914559149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856238458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737976898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675280026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557288145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599742934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997572302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524086894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486889983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714163543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263966239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877878319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042124325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173158385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347826544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297821257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539414349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396434962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382506224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299542314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707530687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840941819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877832801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824021308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880215659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799085873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714234122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000066319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236746547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3421611315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791219639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841185957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809650432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835470147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283897497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582307828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492609464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346804541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242177558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2140106422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891136632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660047126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097278238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200323178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337588521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825842188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752106295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029166827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178324613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415954651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823013621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880181246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844845029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927484393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144886234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649750444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923853927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549561094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512899099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368647275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653481069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975211658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722890953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957596492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958004364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263383786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650435939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619414563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645257648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762477126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920994864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891538544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833851849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965075373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282200919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783746935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749806226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281363333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751684054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770968577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936600649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883587458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580361298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527447218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405421687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894144249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261210602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119096193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279117236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323647081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966022029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073656025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087739513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267955357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344612695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736359471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720372641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764878824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933705801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297610198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903666575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949838608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678132754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557735483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498069709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743765194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960250331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117096753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245405317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401079916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669478643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563054691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458336996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422081348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385981969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463205419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366078382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337901599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208708927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130859583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900324041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503043417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360466303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229773793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3653290936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902028375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633828982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523161189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429876557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326392353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705870865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862601297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866607813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879440124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894086025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933122201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578979257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240422197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286043361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203204719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941305246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976381628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051386175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320297863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398703699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683434631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637776439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998721434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675481155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698538412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290924305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702016043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28296045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757329587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634166724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951858625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594182625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591764678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585220975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303696166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671486017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652541423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683102644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767096593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891158121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771939792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892316766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836559998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854570571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040792203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646785623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269700836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877103522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773374381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209183445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948999496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056225323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3256067536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402970817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540297939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968930078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467872711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202278401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369074409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532364777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600960807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540535613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542499274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446703975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344718177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303688798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013507136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197965353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390815879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375626412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914846999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446983713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330109831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493614347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150772116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815633914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812606859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957804763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030684239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868627769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853226105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829267634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827180542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918669271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982462447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870382454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577293198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462841383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374343455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226125471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648532405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469248518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403443734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338702407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221338109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864877763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556369601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406268433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284651391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652042998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970533986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037313982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168841858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358229072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485622197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826691693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606199947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495320558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256832533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162357451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838261715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910626948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824441353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865133764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007372016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856665809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613355999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500257168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388197093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271978143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891530721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653980212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506785127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368070455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266315648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988824381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254763643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529561827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482161908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259531024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616954553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259970242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113239613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289870451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561995984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583364155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463421549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300280522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453438072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585706146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563320119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411222358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263598163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315567422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635442154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014007847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335128864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455255157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069965078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035557804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920820107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083666619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444254898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268057166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121204451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915638334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013329656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510535629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380044703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369175225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994557893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365350539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227612382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578115491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3868472224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277718004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208789844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210456466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272548142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252052023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1685586755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4990418572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1359008802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245211806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970869159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875535402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940733663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970942857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937410418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898061468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248105461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290000805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267301744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390051802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451993322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345986166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818173567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153831277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3857612498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960423105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317226934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1777118012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159654455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0202080039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0260411816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0335409815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427074035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1391411637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140630124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084726487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180590596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4846622775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0227079372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0360409148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452073368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560403811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973729449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934290501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104952614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944060241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960476469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3489422323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790840963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055030597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4285637744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657307843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551990653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185360452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293800909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044500861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.488528841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5326943292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327050021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4468632861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4185307088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989552327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3914980968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046234148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062233738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545884199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531324587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636618411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516274989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451636713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4322053439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053123965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394994842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663351032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4726959302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579989906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688320349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561643729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3710773083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4120445485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264055164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1793704236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352436011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300717391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482075885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983742515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094246233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031247914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967092959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931060588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106309228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224679403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1583846503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113602383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189697003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0128415338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.013008196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0135415151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5057087159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218732912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181373908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4922954072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488115724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801890668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456049896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960366456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1627042017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327050021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0202080039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0260411816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0335409815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427074035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317508071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554137263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3823386745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960366456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1840089665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827120011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797090813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1770851513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827120011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780641252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846666156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178390638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585336447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462063053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234279131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0185413817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0227079372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0360409148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452073368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861119104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1837249741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823756768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895784846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963486373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888361727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914334367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008598519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036491108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881935232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502685351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648471461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063915171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0382595222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391488318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0202080039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0260411816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0335409815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427074035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954090006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937407118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970939557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967556314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885141846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6351915943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160387802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992472282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883131866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727066031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706989851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639764994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791557627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.462696197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152028008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973732782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108549185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990529001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000888724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978392658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.012708204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.012708204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.012708204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.012708204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.012708204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277854651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4010141762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194680204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898971411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929487264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0119415578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0119415578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0119415578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0119415578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0119415578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924914085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922690811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098507248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092019626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906674572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0260411816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427074035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660401143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127085373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127085373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127085373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127085373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127095373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967089626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987089093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934290501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097705936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905341274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3955543219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762188378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.191711761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536381102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5518604845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952006663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327023339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4704346572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952060027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280791256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1385718456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437540406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1547020819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1695873513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0160414484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0185413817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0227079372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0360409148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427047353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360382465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327050021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327050021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360382465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977714534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135365367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5951926616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0260411816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892418223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3895792438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499186239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552017336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543025232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4373399929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3878451871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118513617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056963238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152028008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085389803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549097147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4087706223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197810957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552017336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117360418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243740511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549188164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085336438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226647149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276034511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185387135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491499475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152028008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585349779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085336438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4760827102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4185307088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385328434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385355116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952060027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4111900604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785697878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085389803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266462227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206777347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861887481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085389803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144704497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052984121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210603987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460353115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952060027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523645799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228690091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738701981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085336438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456074339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803286703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690547771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292700733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852828373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585349779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085336438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395364477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4358174747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1826986326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252052023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424014933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585349779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085389803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3828087992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314787836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292700733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009927456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152072648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328900985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785397808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431979167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4185307088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585349779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185387135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451530672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790180467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085389803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391648312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504755915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294714782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093722914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0418740924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235416359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526673593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680622505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460353115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665929929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439153763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124783899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685400476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0260411816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577524681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4660294414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591468912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106039047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0260411816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354189464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4337221759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3757412983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460353115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.399185624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4294323869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991352901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085336438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113339179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354969456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4488638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785344443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960393138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235840274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601083899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5261296221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685400476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0253412003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4646302173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618829269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252052023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033371632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432384773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05520707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0153414671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339183574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4619642631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516375708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785397808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0260411816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715685557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4660294414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604685606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860395806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0252412029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017578467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379484803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4609729991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185387135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177223919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208419572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062755389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785344443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085389803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348169683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4439342439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995427038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085389803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3643708445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023000691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.552278345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085336438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228919434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5151947962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4785291078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152028008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085336438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4224612671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2033325601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250216153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618708906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285357784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435946525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160172723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452046686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285357784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152028008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660374461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701612544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402630313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4065429131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300678689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018282257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4951953298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180790414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331674983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156761169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402504219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1885368457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207056718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953049676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638608311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536085655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786997657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869382444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672454852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1885368457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183377149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2056612395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182703668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660401143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360329101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145507522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354794126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.183512053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081802442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460406479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.462696197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4414506863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3826983316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4085309756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027058026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.472361783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293297099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718450699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3893387734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1948860103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193666881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448440477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231269035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1695428672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790712761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19936989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459979581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896616239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830318234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732997254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679148869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590573622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008426975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016683519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114415968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364881698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845676735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325301614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616671982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615841271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562276915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585824449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568100999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376585836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626720744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018290586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315981872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.372858045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2042396916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1903403357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644610951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450800416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1364258725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412050183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322720546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834274432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156387774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560375238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011982344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708959018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266756587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490956464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979863171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357362022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647204777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938091923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338669261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750896661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1942977011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755996853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493292232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341658075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155333035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272549621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196196485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121434532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994088404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894648763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447405219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241774572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216181689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354160255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781228715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584923354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820648812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304589223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610603752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3966519227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241941756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743035025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949393438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303694031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36002124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928670341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104996767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101129871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194483659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317750883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590241352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792721028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3916690881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4526444065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4191069299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941448651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267481128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584258156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886606884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220732198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032693944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048504126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135409484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189596864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720472334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206883205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3500974694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3899857901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4403276618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273276028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049533997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173186054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3674797674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768449503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842778542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731183707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364389892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121689927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209213509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810949121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798289935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404957974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051446309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253886293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349138327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249849423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263242564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058484043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179019575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605227514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.22454875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036975797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764678313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4533058536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4448419067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679990703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226400573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986238891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4418026047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4814919508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420162221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697327766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301762564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560380375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3938855398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101827514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578739371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871380561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4369555449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4309034203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707598806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268115278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780245091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690002071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086511498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518081224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646902069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4463432971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334742482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131207265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261292819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633132398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411438084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127719137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190917575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613227293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883777803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313966528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233658935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620527138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028573165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168280142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428164727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309411723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387628733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632425193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279328629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291927457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568910331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282278868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139478556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849409332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631575451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984210803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165929532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336414892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3658325966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968100968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418549505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401335875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290749757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280529966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255720494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700804067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080368638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444776158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3727003982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4307256196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009866801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197746227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369017853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4065710443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4516217722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301040891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604531178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991802023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332177072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701689462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277467273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103352236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379497223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.386798524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054358942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442222578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962793523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394350748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3780304206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4010594515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885076359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272596914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885944521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4356719983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4607769689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196372904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766289173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146357912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4267756877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4347563777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1473845754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395035305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418896203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255539847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145938491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868510994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161395958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729006296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441712136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261218382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171388903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102149877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172305588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245193188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436011439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362558077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493497161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341946083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1970615856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168047988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287084451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762111458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250114289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469811841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243507089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184428862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207726177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209517339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375310151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903188979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1967784859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980556427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654744178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000155046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362095429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689711194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084337847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448621163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4056293124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304209385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241611915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424713789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798025515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164725645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480853584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250505128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480725646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888056042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290354568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082383133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178520998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435202048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1604480891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617286985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399964631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342810276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3694213074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4153559611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4632630356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302653315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990850027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128806109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354566005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4013122694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1564709103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206999666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200287891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348572793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386819119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534039675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4918236194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5418532339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257861228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193268976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122576149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23011832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305392104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1936075403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152786656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351104362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244223602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2095071206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075978768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1977175092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2050938222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30492646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153626759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432967091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3661115617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015645531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311901554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043855001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543287211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768595316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5232662852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4747869828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976320121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210760615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491437341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966824551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541201214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120005513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121752133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153334624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369993275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717040728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4160307755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433508977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245303165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452073368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602069366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785397808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002058693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252052023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120005513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121682135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127015326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152031325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131871691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427047353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785371125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19936989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469813317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311901554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311901554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120032179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121752133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127005327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127005327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127085324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127189488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564829886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763679601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952060027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202053357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0135415151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0164081053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0210079825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0273411469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0360409148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135335104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317333409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226999325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299997377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401994656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120085511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122002127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128335291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155001246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546544878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765342317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110931675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4340008638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900402928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4960286409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4785291078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.462696197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121335478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31230021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130001913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140334971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120085511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122002127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153334624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128335291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128335291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130001913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135335104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151334677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153334624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196666801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260331769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360329101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31230021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130001913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160334437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785397808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827063362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952060027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178302304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715094735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0153414671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0202080039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460406479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120005513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121682135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127031992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152084657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120015513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121752133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153334624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121335478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124668722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135335104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151334677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119002207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119002207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119002207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119002207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685400476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868728917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085389803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335383132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823604245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0135415151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0185413817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0268744927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0385408481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627068699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31230021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130001913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157334517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120015513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311900554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311901554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119085538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05520707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6401914609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5951926616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5326943292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907546814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111671151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1608328328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376735071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863610424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0135415151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0185413817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0268744927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0385408481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627068699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4351969307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.420197331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4160307755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535351114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439520456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097705936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093722914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285384466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1560377129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1918700901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652068032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560403811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05520707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0335409815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659780736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985392471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995497862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393714909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735372459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160361119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527018003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203725954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0127415365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0153414671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0202080039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0285411149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0402074702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122002127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124335398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127001993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152001326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193666881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252081989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327329981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122002127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127335318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153334624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515488237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760955287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117257673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528529938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200495887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127005327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127015326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127031992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127085324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127165322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119335531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120335504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122002127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248754674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302250362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260214746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227978409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2232006302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802124454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483492972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692331811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967691564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184898412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490141155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945606162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958876102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31187718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200755206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861271727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459301204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939190568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121623323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159428136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560493958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476650538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007900276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233067323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310537642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320152665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273817132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2076932914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910258755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1759313935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452384789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643312581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651252188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716771003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694672134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233608135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849804384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983822896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093693139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233677908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558478979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456029975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160702529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3489061553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859512294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292356075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623129691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699186437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806180635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235433904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361588012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218995139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296525068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210809344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139605143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253059755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267326395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566714076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476978521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420910382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523111703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599609486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960204977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116583373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463128093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662523597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961093394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425794272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313625932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398063775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582085405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804922127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446582101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350156072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448634292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844227293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280404053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477906472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013594225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795919668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431315106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391262356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267498941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306631595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2395915209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769501393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060729616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486934882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740957181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4115302698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267754524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2154018651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081657657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102610484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163901279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804525688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039942221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500229298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407160896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404535737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544870386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273934942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427258497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326191831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378922013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836070013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971475164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974520489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087149878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151046458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25103104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690198271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771134438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275770219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082766005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749436895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507310676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248966672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628453135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486607068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247384269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368158371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421435806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332042034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278085023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502238638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483633832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560691655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248349237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466719608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422291366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339718211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932726431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260408496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198980534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487852453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388845973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369272214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358512646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355670524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276287113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775415986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824500028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644697873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145507004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632927209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518262233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893190133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912910449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137979816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502099663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790722447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879032164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959935511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140639583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308244107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277633457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281275377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939283479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034011389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640200569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382839185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639473898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549730933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806921381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416242569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827209421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409592363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315042402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229243545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630511563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490047871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454815901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572162361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558592714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750497142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975047461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994546209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099252558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257805345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250372212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992094659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117004241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212083882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367483413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423874549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282200903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934388573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083594854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810358474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614234504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745350376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261501033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744635262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129594345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750526723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516388838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559113271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575655831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721355855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385902147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318122812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272513522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287411298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224228348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544965902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446341457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375840384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263460427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210515896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228654184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381885802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352761313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327693851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471326834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893899778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137241967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131012813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346344243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350499969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766531278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986521115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234962043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354573245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471220325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252695273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491007753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545940286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725322447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929825829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432486937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346275014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995445251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239791528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435104912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801593747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235606043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839090099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937352779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263044683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531267222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401705298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245602418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278413596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263420335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388014444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255545921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228367704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149496236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160617476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818067359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895889198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033132543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377176915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312733901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398600402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774134659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402973002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505892353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607691651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778732256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837429968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337605416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396464603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482982501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729094697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100544801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584607654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3828973786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706031513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781804049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250972049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433682937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362559053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218533012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301645088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111481825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035767279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035450705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2003322554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280220713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2222861307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096525909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314223383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198415485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276917504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747897445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883119632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099106833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504637111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982256248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006639741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238299414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340418222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347900814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836198407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940341466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083657471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204417806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396728748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190421934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922830303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927243294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937258274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216983781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253693642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567272018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4116613921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040259834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411823321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428023289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449823245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403798347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0407098371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0413401568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421507302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0400747363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0402047361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404122387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0406522462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040222334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0410223324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423673297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0443565258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134872045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525538094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578345989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626217893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726317698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189411036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2222342705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199917515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634751876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652058841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649843846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663238819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760892629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774192602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964273223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712236726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470274209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666813817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552418045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3900119353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680423785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670747804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668565808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676006793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0399925345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0399925345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0400437594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0400452344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.736608343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859396427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047496051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.615448585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978898188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085812343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756326633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068760677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739092672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053992043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117727916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761961627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040762234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043749128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487771179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557925069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421299302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434099277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451602242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473807197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638664118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643779858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620106905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671078803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668298809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686401773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722206701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753722638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649955848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1753103642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925070298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486118178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405447334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415346314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043249728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456922231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0399925345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0401300342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405131335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0413211318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0406123333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0412748319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426034293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445072255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649298847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664281817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668434809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674971796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123004901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199264748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275684596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367095413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437462275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311922526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3553616045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521374107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041240333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429527296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457126241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490731204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470824203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507927129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550543044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600358945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671697802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701997742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075262264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816900512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0398400348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0399900345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404228336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411308322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823594501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4734029688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.465291785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4097289959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640892869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787390573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5329611498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083918981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19245193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964619219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092217965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747468656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403398338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0402998339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405623334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0410223324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.03973256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0398303598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0401236702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0406530822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4500289154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.429731456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4026471101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581476987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0400099345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408102329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421939301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440387264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415998313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430123285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451801241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479306186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434223276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458823227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502887139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546255053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586375975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901894345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4829588497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1948795251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040742533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043742527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488006169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558711028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434247276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448058249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468780207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498719148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436698271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461301222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506306132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550322045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813932518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910312325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090620965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5960990237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404425336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0416400312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438506268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466511212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516947111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549247047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553922037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575621994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740947664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806292533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819950506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405683336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999661152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914413322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543509063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788861573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408198328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0418098309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441826261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469606206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425022295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041727231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421722301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438847267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0413398318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414198316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0418126309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425006295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0413497318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428122289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450097245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476097193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404524336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0412724319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426551292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446507252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693053759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684389777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717097711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812496521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842841465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3819214515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036453078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748241654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994981161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347512457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769428612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752628645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444322256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476671192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530297085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470747203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458498248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476298212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504801185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537906169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040752333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419123307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439601266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465931213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710665724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774232597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.744610427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780120585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742428763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1692123055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553301039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459223476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072953708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846630649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650496844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526924091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231404979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1979670239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734096677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994639646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2032324242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734196677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579897985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656902288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212614199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772002852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609797927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876987337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.186749084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244197658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769722616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212153488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4755136811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774496597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610197925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3438339698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636869377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734396677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057779799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953897222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166952512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724197697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577322991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072949497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737185679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652096841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527000091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064398897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2232128097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767221611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609898925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085119517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832494689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730297685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579397996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643421826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241171641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864596417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682397781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945918454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5765590136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766897612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609797936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367081879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776696592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614697916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129929009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098315938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731696682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579698236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873152984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207207694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719496707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577022991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810882317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182467888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071759671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576698992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35202617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2048628031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179120788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989298178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707644982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1875232287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721996702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576898991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271986037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285232798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867687711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682297791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336593954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1675060214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764098617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609721936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527749578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.159230388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769196607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610297925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246797045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477366667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762196621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609448926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169779804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060939171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768835657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609922925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437353864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755704278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724122697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792763639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609820375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654097847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052739809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320174876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352815023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649497856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526500092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528573699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649144134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731996682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579821986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123309218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132879731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724297697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550098045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011375918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2096893814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831596483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651997841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114960897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732096681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579822986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546103588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714922811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719297707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576924991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413651247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1534107177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727098691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578923987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579290994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956902802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721797702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577224001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3594046423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1485573424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761697622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579521996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925799232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5801518908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722296701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549598046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707290738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276391599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.379139057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4052016253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684182573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922207467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497991157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3676990799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736625821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3893183511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4254089646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4386089383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289932824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256828368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3996390161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4364789425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083893981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3798890556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4934388287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5242788671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287071763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4312710629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5144287868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204091744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1725294698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983492184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747339664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514601619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173635967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838004793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3477791197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093867354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253314881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866496413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061242192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.44583413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5527955246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818996508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624796896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197412748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133264763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951996242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676521792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350159419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1736114044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881396383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065259684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031792088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6081485996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7882283399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687740495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888861061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812342079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4002890148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5355418061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441411019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297805588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823840115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572461091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382123694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744217735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249843231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.389485668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259180629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544219186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064823272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507075225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238178744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259163848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057116347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513146327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614676872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220540724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089534466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284662282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861080307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299992486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166716718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323131256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532908416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705850161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093356587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3611220598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826054498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301176144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283769988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3668493345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483055009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817293181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222216802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711611677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760462563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091082687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338081839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359560028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036746657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172427142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1473427991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332078891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832321481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239780319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3553245322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810416073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4072471672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713234797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402607767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118454994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501875765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187824998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122772423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393243872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072186632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253240678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3488573421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366726713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759486346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983783377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001840916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939042145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895460238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842509752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778427236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740653175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816641289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305491694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340120366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3630711693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928754241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281208196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322222883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537587066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404191716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686882851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221321187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951461547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007883055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181742186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341254897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3643813347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365598792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293126696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080595381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141796659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798824913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707199458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101557341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881447222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713586466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327303736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444619335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702898968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567658317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752557236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832997029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938099622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480012487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121150936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260151659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854123359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084880072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851163735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347261131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134480783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1763835202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945635404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2165802312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499122407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009544116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1690372586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1408767087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1222512514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631061503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858873245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111584198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309193441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441477831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165780917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026040102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558869887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4256059469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4309903413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4343236309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4412146674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435884854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241052935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073491382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451851239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377024866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329764549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311967632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531353911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3759346549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.39805122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024961853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217105326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352972493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1544645527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470215328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019538179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750363435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1940273824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018691377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901219708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676760605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601178198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3559805209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606536777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3623080625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505455015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759191366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281609747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878969621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930760485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529216651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313186474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872527142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622462282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708516401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466580749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243174684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016854131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1826765023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054731893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232770235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758612699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755227981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567115453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473052881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3716355273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575072026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154098482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001473383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663257375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737562981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841669325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217966049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502480604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965246677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635324668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1509744282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1719538312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951378081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222506606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251678362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612528551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765618578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287302879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3761265872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108831339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4013176105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305033309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295758709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227251447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334722469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384664939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722365212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442689949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588538996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743956198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4256411474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4891559487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416013346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723487804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282246764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281020996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046188383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376477838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420426592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558211567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791421662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919987266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588180752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299134833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166126926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709033773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520541925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351738042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181308211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056150064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206399088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368062773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350482291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384405922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755845615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971990922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318952682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2076963943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174253771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421106066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274360193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798241992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679812861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262374587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1999647335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307596542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339196479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394396398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479896438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306823533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320226507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340904465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1371758404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307997541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1322900541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347021703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384025379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309820527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348120451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1415595316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522295103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879021388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096819621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100195946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302729761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299397798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307923531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341204465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430421287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471895204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483195181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1622394903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1887633549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307147533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320897505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343025461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1377705392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307498532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133879847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393107361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14735222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299797547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308097531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341103465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430413287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.166379482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665394817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735194678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1881819385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301771543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309946527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344024459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439420269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309621538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344399468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141352033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531695094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512922479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681428033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959977476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1251242654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307222533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133862247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392103363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471645204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531695084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6772284616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5832286494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4650788854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307098543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337598482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389528378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1464329259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139490638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130958793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1569098861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983338867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307597532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133870347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139354536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477695192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307521542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338821479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1391999373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469804248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910696325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5970286218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5040288076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4192689769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299398548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307801531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340925465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430921286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087769324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7143238192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6106247928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5163572527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989921166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160644825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425595296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178911957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310096527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350499446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437620272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165409484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297397552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298200551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301521544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311396524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307522532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338897469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392300363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1470821206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715196715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078779657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007496131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250295646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1557521033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158882397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1643144862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1723694701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307198533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130859853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344004459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412146323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299422548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303922539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313236521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334957477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969221085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1929963617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067101827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638162505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297898551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299998547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306507534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1323933499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1556822034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587732972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1640863866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1718020712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321522504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362046423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431722284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1538200071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297199553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129830555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302850541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316133515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559297027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709696726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6791284578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5891686375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906196334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994596157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6561185038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5931710243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307522532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338822469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393200361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14739082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120175485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500185061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206611221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206084447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470547204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578396988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873396399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317395512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694821756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763896618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979796187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212395722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433797277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589096967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968896208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402395342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026196094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100395946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203695739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334495478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2384393381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531693087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842292466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246691659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445997253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541397062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741496663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091395964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1750494647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1721094706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737894672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1824594499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844396457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907296331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995296156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110095926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1700273451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6273721891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267193615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792192566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324021499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380699386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478120191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615494917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559996028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.159879895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1670819806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786819575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299347548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307158533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339664468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426612294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173389568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743896663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009819129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223485768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230496686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334120479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478295191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1674894798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792296409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249845172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3524020876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3853983811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281373818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698587617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602550173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593385821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264040365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510021821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612250514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851251969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127751269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363908179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650490884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3964983602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525060152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374756835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3793265878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4021004742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716729846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589386941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367984041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253705986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038986511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576041192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518386646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795374672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710099995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533391458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361001183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179705714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064893852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262210731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547827922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3900532024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279638751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566514323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322161146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088332664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328347582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3446679849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667181546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3894959897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090115121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258430023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455484875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3726647251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647755187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479812316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377574419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228622924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636792823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484971855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652918176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3929914761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061287949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197634455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511652934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397869923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641871086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519708122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308407745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102922653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039862195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268105513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257375464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461905572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702655568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665663328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651724819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654616427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304710509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245089218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364789512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840910578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621603741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333533427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427545964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641077496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816650899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558878217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3598337244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049855631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195131784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364696547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551205052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3809239058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586413791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226847697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488631346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347935907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458886329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466759406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340113154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399148061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089644296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298135445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577831404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3841332237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812129035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591610072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459400058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697061037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023139818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158652284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500132184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339456839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148535979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384766975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241299994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3982449626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090105372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477088819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703938167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974776473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963921116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749007309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683867111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633755092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543456703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626133132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687601727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698098548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570157422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407256808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627873663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698445412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658316027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485445753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258716706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2095041228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067312779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169491921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573810991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252829218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160591857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453692061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245316642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021149474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929828953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180558738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473340925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189696951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284773749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602388113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330988325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082882528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723426348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662424621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233040524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330132781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057496281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226365897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467815779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333626489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014339276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561821849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340092794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133761646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711318555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571762239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463956587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361218706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148249418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409061163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2209227464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2048080452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028853326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241178806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346937188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.372659699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499174915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478045412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479733902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494108133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648211163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716305476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866587046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106272178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678863215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507971812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329795074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148622326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3806929206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4059398933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4318619995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4594093643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705971693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532284569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339700989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186898697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032632611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266164764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507330922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421695135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964703906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123939829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537064075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414023242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063168619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561116365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383009423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190966318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831566278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723500039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535325364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3630609693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750691365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331452947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3553793667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123311067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094959903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309651793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357010437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3839780997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020626135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626276174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419700235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294088607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3675823091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599094707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592199113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754530215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219604881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365220495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3853676219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.42096558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685555113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257391339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3438086549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279432379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678068816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259618784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601736096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352486983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009486865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962202107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949888825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923851637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163277271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283449494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571501463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877291595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0388a8962c51d5923e46e862e11b2c4e1c91120cb822172cbe1ee6948fe8077a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430896487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0388a8962c51d5923e46e862e11b2c4e1c91120cb822172cbe1ee6948fe8077a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464785852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0388a8962c51d5923e46e862e11b2c4e1c91120cb822172cbe1ee6948fe8077a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522131809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0388a8962c51d5923e46e862e11b2c4e1c91120cb822172cbe1ee6948fe8077a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602594087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"076252bac7b43dd18ee7db10dd99f0b47fde0b2eb4b1c98232ddbb1fde757884","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4923718877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"076252bac7b43dd18ee7db10dd99f0b47fde0b2eb4b1c98232ddbb1fde757884","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4621030358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"076252bac7b43dd18ee7db10dd99f0b47fde0b2eb4b1c98232ddbb1fde757884","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4745132573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"076252bac7b43dd18ee7db10dd99f0b47fde0b2eb4b1c98232ddbb1fde757884","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026094656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0f07891857f427648e4e6633f88c8555a21c820bbe2df81a707f2ee658a3f944","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946701491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0f07891857f427648e4e6633f88c8555a21c820bbe2df81a707f2ee658a3f944","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946964817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0f07891857f427648e4e6633f88c8555a21c820bbe2df81a707f2ee658a3f944","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044393305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0f07891857f427648e4e6633f88c8555a21c820bbe2df81a707f2ee658a3f944","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942186057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"1130449a96eba1a771560509bd1fb23e71b93bb4bd0b4d0af37a426da91ffd0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419923449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"1130449a96eba1a771560509bd1fb23e71b93bb4bd0b4d0af37a426da91ffd0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420824536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"1130449a96eba1a771560509bd1fb23e71b93bb4bd0b4d0af37a426da91ffd0c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423255581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"1130449a96eba1a771560509bd1fb23e71b93bb4bd0b4d0af37a426da91ffd0c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426719933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"192c0715666e1585e6b2b3ea30c4af0c2fdd4225b995897dc89703cf0b3f3d20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697554875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"192c0715666e1585e6b2b3ea30c4af0c2fdd4225b995897dc89703cf0b3f3d20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697598241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"192c0715666e1585e6b2b3ea30c4af0c2fdd4225b995897dc89703cf0b3f3d20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697638473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"192c0715666e1585e6b2b3ea30c4af0c2fdd4225b995897dc89703cf0b3f3d20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698111516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438756275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438759608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440320678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441772861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430789823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431354252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432139787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433167537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"35e89bafa203b77fa24b0530842e6d6eee5ecbbdc02d3e79df14f5c3db54b4ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173598211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"35e89bafa203b77fa24b0530842e6d6eee5ecbbdc02d3e79df14f5c3db54b4ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3487335321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"35e89bafa203b77fa24b0530842e6d6eee5ecbbdc02d3e79df14f5c3db54b4ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960088403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"35e89bafa203b77fa24b0530842e6d6eee5ecbbdc02d3e79df14f5c3db54b4ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989575387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"3ecc72dacee2a2b4ca03ab7bd3bf40fb8403a55d7ac30905f99104bdecdd562e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373703077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"3ecc72dacee2a2b4ca03ab7bd3bf40fb8403a55d7ac30905f99104bdecdd562e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4110878535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"3ecc72dacee2a2b4ca03ab7bd3bf40fb8403a55d7ac30905f99104bdecdd562e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4198320626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"3ecc72dacee2a2b4ca03ab7bd3bf40fb8403a55d7ac30905f99104bdecdd562e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4256652389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"425295e683656375e3fafef64e549bd04dee2cabd5afe5ebb055b1e86c6e2546","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422478947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"425295e683656375e3fafef64e549bd04dee2cabd5afe5ebb055b1e86c6e2546","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423061187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"425295e683656375e3fafef64e549bd04dee2cabd5afe5ebb055b1e86c6e2546","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423895664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"425295e683656375e3fafef64e549bd04dee2cabd5afe5ebb055b1e86c6e2546","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04250347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"446f843e39d849a37dd2f59e3ce1ec612709bfd7cfaaa7762e4db8da8e42cb7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5180183084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"446f843e39d849a37dd2f59e3ce1ec612709bfd7cfaaa7762e4db8da8e42cb7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5102967385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"446f843e39d849a37dd2f59e3ce1ec612709bfd7cfaaa7762e4db8da8e42cb7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5068942745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"446f843e39d849a37dd2f59e3ce1ec612709bfd7cfaaa7762e4db8da8e42cb7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4923394441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"49803a43a0e323040582abdc3009ef783278ed9370aebeb8abad206110df1e4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428898005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"49803a43a0e323040582abdc3009ef783278ed9370aebeb8abad206110df1e4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449478815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"49803a43a0e323040582abdc3009ef783278ed9370aebeb8abad206110df1e4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530810817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"49803a43a0e323040582abdc3009ef783278ed9370aebeb8abad206110df1e4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4153210729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430895387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430895387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430907642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430907642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"51f89029c887797ea0c28703d519a0d772a2d1602ba6d43e02df7fc5032cdcf9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785622493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"51f89029c887797ea0c28703d519a0d772a2d1602ba6d43e02df7fc5032cdcf9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905757037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"51f89029c887797ea0c28703d519a0d772a2d1602ba6d43e02df7fc5032cdcf9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248595586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"51f89029c887797ea0c28703d519a0d772a2d1602ba6d43e02df7fc5032cdcf9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112987656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"535a16d7079e064f16984e5ab8912262a7566f7a973d5d644b9df81b411381b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422561178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"535a16d7079e064f16984e5ab8912262a7566f7a973d5d644b9df81b411381b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423143418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"535a16d7079e064f16984e5ab8912262a7566f7a973d5d644b9df81b411381b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424311331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"535a16d7079e064f16984e5ab8912262a7566f7a973d5d644b9df81b411381b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425360614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434561944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0435117484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043761075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"54592d021e4c47b32cef8f3f0cfe99389ab285c0e3cdcd761589aa8b9746208d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644724064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"54592d021e4c47b32cef8f3f0cfe99389ab285c0e3cdcd761589aa8b9746208d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718775404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"54592d021e4c47b32cef8f3f0cfe99389ab285c0e3cdcd761589aa8b9746208d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074227366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"54592d021e4c47b32cef8f3f0cfe99389ab285c0e3cdcd761589aa8b9746208d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644981835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5881418e834b9c3b029ca2eecc88a10d4b9a873aa2e3f43207ad11a7ad5cffc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690888377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5881418e834b9c3b029ca2eecc88a10d4b9a873aa2e3f43207ad11a7ad5cffc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750567881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5881418e834b9c3b029ca2eecc88a10d4b9a873aa2e3f43207ad11a7ad5cffc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723331948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5881418e834b9c3b029ca2eecc88a10d4b9a873aa2e3f43207ad11a7ad5cffc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759704302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423312247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425089976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427204364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431543136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"598c7e24ae08d3f0ac0ac4ebec715643c65f3cd114018860361c92ac2515a7cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430366501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"598c7e24ae08d3f0ac0ac4ebec715643c65f3cd114018860361c92ac2515a7cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430934264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"598c7e24ae08d3f0ac0ac4ebec715643c65f3cd114018860361c92ac2515a7cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433965293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"598c7e24ae08d3f0ac0ac4ebec715643c65f3cd114018860361c92ac2515a7cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452421463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686619603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719787599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734707197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744064723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"60235dea3e58753b071b01083e32ef495124a139a870fe41bdc19ea6f0dc954a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3920790319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"60235dea3e58753b071b01083e32ef495124a139a870fe41bdc19ea6f0dc954a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084572577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"60235dea3e58753b071b01083e32ef495124a139a870fe41bdc19ea6f0dc954a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.436167734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"60235dea3e58753b071b01083e32ef495124a139a870fe41bdc19ea6f0dc954a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198881116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"63dec05c3692efa4131528ffa5f670c06a033ca49d449ddd485a88772f0663eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975214067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"63dec05c3692efa4131528ffa5f670c06a033ca49d449ddd485a88772f0663eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975214067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"63dec05c3692efa4131528ffa5f670c06a033ca49d449ddd485a88772f0663eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975352953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"63dec05c3692efa4131528ffa5f670c06a033ca49d449ddd485a88772f0663eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975352986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976214029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975658489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975685155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975507382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"6f626eb1eab4e34d6061a384d9f7862af9708bba47e7430c11f1f04c33b4cbea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425117776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"6f626eb1eab4e34d6061a384d9f7862af9708bba47e7430c11f1f04c33b4cbea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423895853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"6f626eb1eab4e34d6061a384d9f7862af9708bba47e7430c11f1f04c33b4cbea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424203656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"6f626eb1eab4e34d6061a384d9f7862af9708bba47e7430c11f1f04c33b4cbea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425016745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"84e8a33553bca96a7d38ce48abb191d8dbbfbb87c8a0d69b55ab1247bfa2a828","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702692504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"84e8a33553bca96a7d38ce48abb191d8dbbfbb87c8a0d69b55ab1247bfa2a828","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426559937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"84e8a33553bca96a7d38ce48abb191d8dbbfbb87c8a0d69b55ab1247bfa2a828","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428449886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"84e8a33553bca96a7d38ce48abb191d8dbbfbb87c8a0d69b55ab1247bfa2a828","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430894265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"896f6a521a1cd845180d2a5d957efea9ec169f6b3ddcffff8955c649159e7e96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699778138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"896f6a521a1cd845180d2a5d957efea9ec169f6b3ddcffff8955c649159e7e96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699778138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"896f6a521a1cd845180d2a5d957efea9ec169f6b3ddcffff8955c649159e7e96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699778138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"896f6a521a1cd845180d2a5d957efea9ec169f6b3ddcffff8955c649159e7e96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699781471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"89e5083c8ee7303d24a63bd25fe5ee8e4bb04f874d23072979a737436f2b0947","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1772276211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"89e5083c8ee7303d24a63bd25fe5ee8e4bb04f874d23072979a737436f2b0947","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482645952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"89e5083c8ee7303d24a63bd25fe5ee8e4bb04f874d23072979a737436f2b0947","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476732778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"89e5083c8ee7303d24a63bd25fe5ee8e4bb04f874d23072979a737436f2b0947","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455877784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8ac832074fa141c02de481956bf1d26b7317bce6f4063da42e3f0f2cee3d3ef2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439160456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8ac832074fa141c02de481956bf1d26b7317bce6f4063da42e3f0f2cee3d3ef2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1496282252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8ac832074fa141c02de481956bf1d26b7317bce6f4063da42e3f0f2cee3d3ef2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712970005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8ac832074fa141c02de481956bf1d26b7317bce6f4063da42e3f0f2cee3d3ef2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069730376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419895672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420463434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422255608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425272194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8f241f64a166d7972b06fa09c6dd04cea5162a8ec1db4b5c8610c1354958a098","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702665838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8f241f64a166d7972b06fa09c6dd04cea5162a8ec1db4b5c8610c1354958a098","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703900249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8f241f64a166d7972b06fa09c6dd04cea5162a8ec1db4b5c8610c1354958a098","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705851307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8f241f64a166d7972b06fa09c6dd04cea5162a8ec1db4b5c8610c1354958a098","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707563484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9101f21194ebeb198969cb5ed205b28e84da8007453817b4bbb6bd4268da3431","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854081762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9101f21194ebeb198969cb5ed205b28e84da8007453817b4bbb6bd4268da3431","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875938951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9101f21194ebeb198969cb5ed205b28e84da8007453817b4bbb6bd4268da3431","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085337067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9101f21194ebeb198969cb5ed205b28e84da8007453817b4bbb6bd4268da3431","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226055082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"92d16801fd9e1a5ae9572c79cfc9a6c7b3cdc6407ad25c95fe324e682825f776","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707804588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"92d16801fd9e1a5ae9572c79cfc9a6c7b3cdc6407ad25c95fe324e682825f776","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710483405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"92d16801fd9e1a5ae9572c79cfc9a6c7b3cdc6407ad25c95fe324e682825f776","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716025478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"92d16801fd9e1a5ae9572c79cfc9a6c7b3cdc6407ad25c95fe324e682825f776","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725749938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232797134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254752098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256012064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252658821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9d7e66fd0fa8d02b91ba55f5f2917802d1d8e521a7eec2a773d816d196d632f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344093874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9d7e66fd0fa8d02b91ba55f5f2917802d1d8e521a7eec2a773d816d196d632f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045768571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9d7e66fd0fa8d02b91ba55f5f2917802d1d8e521a7eec2a773d816d196d632f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2004118581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9d7e66fd0fa8d02b91ba55f5f2917802d1d8e521a7eec2a773d816d196d632f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963596339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043964514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047531418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053709585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623889069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e91997d235cb3828f5ef0c0d32632929cfe5f9c8861c287eb0e5de5857a7443","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.464849073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e91997d235cb3828f5ef0c0d32632929cfe5f9c8861c287eb0e5de5857a7443","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149771327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e91997d235cb3828f5ef0c0d32632929cfe5f9c8861c287eb0e5de5857a7443","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965602951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e91997d235cb3828f5ef0c0d32632929cfe5f9c8861c287eb0e5de5857a7443","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780923478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012779712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008607602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103754349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079850129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a1903c1a07479a8c52b1c9f52b03a59762179b9d88dacab3df7901d1d41c1516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428544328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a1903c1a07479a8c52b1c9f52b03a59762179b9d88dacab3df7901d1d41c1516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429478747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a1903c1a07479a8c52b1c9f52b03a59762179b9d88dacab3df7901d1d41c1516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430765379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a1903c1a07479a8c52b1c9f52b03a59762179b9d88dacab3df7901d1d41c1516","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440805109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a3e5164333e7fb0285a70c86caf5ca32175f03e08707256e5acdecefc6f66dad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420202341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a3e5164333e7fb0285a70c86caf5ca32175f03e08707256e5acdecefc6f66dad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420761482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a3e5164333e7fb0285a70c86caf5ca32175f03e08707256e5acdecefc6f66dad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422434492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a3e5164333e7fb0285a70c86caf5ca32175f03e08707256e5acdecefc6f66dad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424236666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a770921e12578eb8ea7e703a0f1ab513e4807f113d4b94f1037beb1b99e82330","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468866576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a770921e12578eb8ea7e703a0f1ab513e4807f113d4b94f1037beb1b99e82330","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476421928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a770921e12578eb8ea7e703a0f1ab513e4807f113d4b94f1037beb1b99e82330","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487647181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a770921e12578eb8ea7e703a0f1ab513e4807f113d4b94f1037beb1b99e82330","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505541144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070566909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436904103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452588125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470102098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702609172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703941359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705775754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708163467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bafb5f387bd9eb8d558e2f34ded05172c69fb2d41ac3b189b62199c9f0042d5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083128424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bafb5f387bd9eb8d558e2f34ded05172c69fb2d41ac3b189b62199c9f0042d5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039166527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bafb5f387bd9eb8d558e2f34ded05172c69fb2d41ac3b189b62199c9f0042d5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082426473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bafb5f387bd9eb8d558e2f34ded05172c69fb2d41ac3b189b62199c9f0042d5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787718851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"c53896700f630837efea6a99bd40c9581d32e4b9a8835fe55e6d95234a0e8bf6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489200473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"c53896700f630837efea6a99bd40c9581d32e4b9a8835fe55e6d95234a0e8bf6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552972089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"c53896700f630837efea6a99bd40c9581d32e4b9a8835fe55e6d95234a0e8bf6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546567817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"c53896700f630837efea6a99bd40c9581d32e4b9a8835fe55e6d95234a0e8bf6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499552416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cbad8021385851407236d46b1fafe5e78966cb0c5035f52d969e24de1ebf8d68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758996543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cbad8021385851407236d46b1fafe5e78966cb0c5035f52d969e24de1ebf8d68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783302556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cbad8021385851407236d46b1fafe5e78966cb0c5035f52d969e24de1ebf8d68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838673288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cbad8021385851407236d46b1fafe5e78966cb0c5035f52d969e24de1ebf8d68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882483219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106181389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254574061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232791062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235400992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477226351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490364886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510447679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544363432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704997997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749156808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730326204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773617261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e323255417b051f6086cc3afd73811b5df5a18073dacc8845911e4868edb5978","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105280555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e323255417b051f6086cc3afd73811b5df5a18073dacc8845911e4868edb5978","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165536711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e323255417b051f6086cc3afd73811b5df5a18073dacc8845911e4868edb5978","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332202224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e323255417b051f6086cc3afd73811b5df5a18073dacc8845911e4868edb5978","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980630325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419758187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420313727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421092906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422094879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ea6df93328c2ac025c2e85e6e8e7f3ffbe287a69b267a91e394a3825f60963e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449477098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ea6df93328c2ac025c2e85e6e8e7f3ffbe287a69b267a91e394a3825f60963e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045670357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ea6df93328c2ac025c2e85e6e8e7f3ffbe287a69b267a91e394a3825f60963e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454639181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ea6df93328c2ac025c2e85e6e8e7f3ffbe287a69b267a91e394a3825f60963e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457004673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427783237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431810907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439392925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450088192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f0c322e138695ed94003cb146aa9fcad652b884dd25f71c442cd5510307997c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763359254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f0c322e138695ed94003cb146aa9fcad652b884dd25f71c442cd5510307997c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926243758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f0c322e138695ed94003cb146aa9fcad652b884dd25f71c442cd5510307997c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152682107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f0c322e138695ed94003cb146aa9fcad652b884dd25f71c442cd5510307997c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360787616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f12443caeb59f949548292c51ad75701260e0d93c4b76b003cfa44d5aa594a0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438866272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f12443caeb59f949548292c51ad75701260e0d93c4b76b003cfa44d5aa594a0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458226862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f12443caeb59f949548292c51ad75701260e0d93c4b76b003cfa44d5aa594a0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487087196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f12443caeb59f949548292c51ad75701260e0d93c4b76b003cfa44d5aa594a0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052175293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f173608b7721fd8094e681ece6cae5d3a51043a55f317775d2830975f4898ef1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419702355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f173608b7721fd8094e681ece6cae5d3a51043a55f317775d2830975f4898ef1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419705688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f173608b7721fd8094e681ece6cae5d3a51043a55f317775d2830975f4898ef1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419711243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f173608b7721fd8094e681ece6cae5d3a51043a55f317775d2830975f4898ef1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419755687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708665676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709372324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710358964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711594486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0435896352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442340623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455151389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04762186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429088758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439421813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456088031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479531844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043320198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437427422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446564954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045732022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fd391776f0c81914a2aedd5a5e06b3fa5f74c5769a82bcfbeb3b606c9117abf1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.586605351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fd391776f0c81914a2aedd5a5e06b3fa5f74c5769a82bcfbeb3b606c9117abf1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4462584623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fd391776f0c81914a2aedd5a5e06b3fa5f74c5769a82bcfbeb3b606c9117abf1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4050991259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fd391776f0c81914a2aedd5a5e06b3fa5f74c5769a82bcfbeb3b606c9117abf1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338025487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503119105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948835521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610973861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522252928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382205325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1222959721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614084889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429187829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182962049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0880743277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797745511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105130971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1381134819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600224151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519310785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145440281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037850148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610889419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520089641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790216101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1727510833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619083643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523865095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752463348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053546251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508197739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447421597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1745662973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850077425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602974077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519865203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649559265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760746566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505225597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446978276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271810212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025363399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479865169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434199731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1619096815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746857981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467087735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430229838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018567839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841299883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480309601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433227535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1724470168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103515047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888520835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799967663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181735164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522280693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257425928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041183392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653749377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533113735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047560231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015072983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669110085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530226035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061681784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969074222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653416052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532977072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060524365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796856635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469644333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430423177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1919473542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219067492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046962125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999991167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057065869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956852328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613558236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522312926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1580297756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101407301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877328914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797201082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1759574241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805411961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601307455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519226342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1675623364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031740312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877522297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797217759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098628266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124748798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044517746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999628966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1690623237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846744181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048042182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157737247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701192544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477977442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431255644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1819147546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124736698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0880299945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797303301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950997436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783412553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472312039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430866776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257030645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102473939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612528275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522336259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085925547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000851144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613557125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522642906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1847444665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973407438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606196212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489199373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273693124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113229205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886633108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799745458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1560237196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628527833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471756498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430422077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1932794276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277399255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875965617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797302179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180976787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841078778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608751988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521975179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925167751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038627905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644305186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530308255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374453915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4029991824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3802331286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3978924403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551691219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4026281182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.457042172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4966522169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4655331229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4573695299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5730168279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6138407289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042774493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024463336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657779621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219013655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076468286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3943888877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4336205803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4447870575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312251576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645720838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141126863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511561335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5345632068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767537137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383231456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3407897459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323250879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5386853283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4898079567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4983077279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4308707888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6773493249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923297676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866965859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305181007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6683121391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930013747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808078556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4595915696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.591274828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122007769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124242407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2010106311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269955011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947074814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917885807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.435018639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278759661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1893592969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804584908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912446744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036894536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977805907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225069393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054197066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941775758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843797762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861314613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822639718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794460203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896201477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.434803587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686874114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29021348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539309111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595961237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784892631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819789048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538271821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290313002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614416357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953522277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253159705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321771077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568366373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981758192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618408174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778987752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302546158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298921054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581316558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069627676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128936189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265129931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412232451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955341647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740490455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1556956173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1495703387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132312872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596423739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504886285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3773194275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055472129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338115396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264145703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049626081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589820782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712486671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911293394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093287758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628094282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425240083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3770516001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4027578826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105038224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260691828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347362531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551872385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744727909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983858393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232997618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497775322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046288846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981011151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973742479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826170627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1675809355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217904934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069292522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206853357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645940633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292596033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186452609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530553047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730466892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759369381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815701879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906160208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800027314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308286875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190425999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426844806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829902512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718170319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650635593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615851486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693939966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813208839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855868203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800647737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271832585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403619914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129331219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1812157811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717492475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821624014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994773746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230031431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1599240746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.187282814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012810751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223769381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.389509919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058537625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760034793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499086383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252529584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604274234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265088241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269705716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083397973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387769142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612253189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997930117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4489612592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4272931432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3997141436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3892366537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103619866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059814551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088948739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660720719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830369966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231197664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121744022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349353551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796920328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021359025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119652469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046745128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007397388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981531461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110360539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080964593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021387262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096905648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.456611069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990908535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881022719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348980822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3447492925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253338874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3678257388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101053327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401649737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140084273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074506911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923431238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089169568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980863731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749464929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565462243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217812022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287482587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1978597892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743110596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265644622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905547544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378773055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.382383212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010635848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621246338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299791187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089449438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615566478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532178302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798619232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862622647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587494853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959170077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376377755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3965067987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151489712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268777681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345334477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563047271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3868860863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789544472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019156973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305382155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639430259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248475322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482195602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473757419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736457808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423202743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485410849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049124553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.498275095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729793339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990273878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281043229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587396383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812906502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425465982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4446691604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319188908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807822936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479441104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136033921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6558982209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1411188355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1448446612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527941881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902658688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118447767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831949849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439646258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807767718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426356368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1942497444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4159099596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.45348431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5126615765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435171216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770743941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422329538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352064199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600977429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290353731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768743581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343716914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678380907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071343847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078881136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363252717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654824807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868338384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963029584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258439007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603132816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231263619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222851422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266894293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416842919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419675425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420572068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423257551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430918456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419509874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419513207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420583178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421988696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420256521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423478656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439560445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500532137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8254542952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817198385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7176769428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6334918778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420673176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422534237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428950731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443394787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425756625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444537231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479105189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532197093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141964877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420207644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422327587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427340785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419979861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420955391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424311967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431617326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431699798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449532652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473976438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517308605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419869864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420845394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423871979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431516217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707508478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591482898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173754734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888203139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463587829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457647989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459116838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460338194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419979861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420955391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424311967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432506191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423728649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433395056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455727788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499726604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765334151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799785445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845966425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918964459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419733201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420295408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422585347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427797429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141989653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421340936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426674126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1442204819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420312075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424645291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436839408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146150541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889377496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057569648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288977084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1683192837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141973139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420626255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423342715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429701533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053886358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662638026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903298215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254955415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423450021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436310785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464671133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514419794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422646456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424840842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429621824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443071462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420006527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420645399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423756426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430395137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419786533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420758729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423508655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431175116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436422752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483727034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1656166837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6619144348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1473581665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841019725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907688702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656557432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420313186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423618652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439507113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484953668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548863311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627638968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711525599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814980958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419813199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420785395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142367754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143064513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762968659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848966344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057182961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426395244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710442295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734413872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780079309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08976317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867965832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953630193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085404423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264510713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423089778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434728353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1462394275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158739091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044072203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188734975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231289385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1289176716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1709054302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1777385796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2053267258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354873507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419869864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421175385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424400853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433517275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142028652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422400907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432742851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147656056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907298107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923853217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034516904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237400332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430396248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452395655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522727095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1709947611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141953544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420228755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423174264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143409087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982518304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100462882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062516151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156624728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420423183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423645318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437311617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467283032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977764368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197672227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1296506045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5552916646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211094708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6692468183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2031601175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554920421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333508148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147239001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.510041012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5086858052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419813199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421122053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424766399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440301537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550748917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826089756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1667074567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2050376712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141264889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251003274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848356966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105016724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422728676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425506379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432395083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447061355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7200469127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6624432699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2048156285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382591726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180316288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6125935403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5283402527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4428758867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419873198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420785395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423424213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143056291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905801803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877255001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913287557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043717131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510080381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353533008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767894086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3976253667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480069435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706020911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3915578793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4086542177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268748751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681017447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755418614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766497887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538933322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393783908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462445012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572232594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745531824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595654905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475784111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3716424229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734509797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296488355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520941761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762041907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490220152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547276648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574192514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671871795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944403989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729466937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312999068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494163801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833788275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327101765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35933923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238300982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892122264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122598116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369946144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403068173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389502124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418028226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304301403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190895828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289164766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898158717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083129859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201524909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579939145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511715286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444479016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340372609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672558852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516901438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3761580149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067268058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748936264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753813655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717775599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633067875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650902755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393446043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.363240033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3862846229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694375999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255974526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534951559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482155767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898716508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008854055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157502973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169897893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722674174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279442313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596074946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574407199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767466573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178185838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381006979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3646937539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601345084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328508468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399711325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462419803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779999824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727451992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574179608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502912905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551661924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419480388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352793493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206403724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705392928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266334423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492603324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376651254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277361901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316539214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348557205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446313227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700337839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586425425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544210147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3749958175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700198093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261360531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467794835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703889153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769566432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130464751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276923014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375796178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571120069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647809908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725594688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861101866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687653466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618328976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439628619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347405885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757384921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637415746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496565336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575845778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715654122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3332432931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589869617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231546228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713726268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546203261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367942165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2154105519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666885211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290090022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382040797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493163821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699244231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604337102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361532478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466352694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712988912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315733499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236953975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217668275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628489858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528020173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348743739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214520826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930514223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078767692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126021302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250999352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718598799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642577836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277843851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3447870806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651681901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335178091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521621499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376918128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790628345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710759986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327294897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487584979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764710396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803460884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976699362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994025711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275232823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269704226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600353807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2481460152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851043305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851714808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816215451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3905051663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760992913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696989881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309539824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482550699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233764963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840371833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933134875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086901596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840785939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911451297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906440707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036076697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931572282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214844363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482741959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3799171942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790829025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682102447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291415943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478846918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780217227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31711308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611004271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463453022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582255945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249984336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612302955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677204534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669493516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260959901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319240847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361418942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742085286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279089901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467901292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268051867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680560131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244422634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197582542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4184685194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703005187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215582621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540915714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474910218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552745342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513506296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789167406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006740844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198862061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423167461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163197119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1944891197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6531733563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005362457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234668032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090743075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"0dfed41d5b80fd0cb749ef54c3b62ca9e4ab90ce199c2ad8d9b779037fbf57c3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632102593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"0dfed41d5b80fd0cb749ef54c3b62ca9e4ab90ce199c2ad8d9b779037fbf57c3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639698783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"0dfed41d5b80fd0cb749ef54c3b62ca9e4ab90ce199c2ad8d9b779037fbf57c3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657100403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"0dfed41d5b80fd0cb749ef54c3b62ca9e4ab90ce199c2ad8d9b779037fbf57c3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682379069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107191813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107915846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162547113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280663319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473315842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483918151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497692548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515350928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"212f531093f2fe0e8cfec3591ae5038d1c0d11b6b75f16b0eddb766b979ddc7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233593493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"212f531093f2fe0e8cfec3591ae5038d1c0d11b6b75f16b0eddb766b979ddc7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450880472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"212f531093f2fe0e8cfec3591ae5038d1c0d11b6b75f16b0eddb766b979ddc7b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353104758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"212f531093f2fe0e8cfec3591ae5038d1c0d11b6b75f16b0eddb766b979ddc7b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466643337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467431964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467213755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468242689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472278316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509834484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352688042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524946248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147962905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458196519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460166995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466310072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047712168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148202835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199502727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276987796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228162321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3020f82ccded2f61b438ae7304da05098605e4f70a7a261c49f8aabdc1e6a1e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457507694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3020f82ccded2f61b438ae7304da05098605e4f70a7a261c49f8aabdc1e6a1e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458198807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3020f82ccded2f61b438ae7304da05098605e4f70a7a261c49f8aabdc1e6a1e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459690427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3020f82ccded2f61b438ae7304da05098605e4f70a7a261c49f8aabdc1e6a1e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462641353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048679485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489148252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499876852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521995004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3bc422d52f93246002a3425632561130af98a602d243a18c7f2f5e82b436d967","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1329319615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3bc422d52f93246002a3425632561130af98a602d243a18c7f2f5e82b436d967","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5364787964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3bc422d52f93246002a3425632561130af98a602d243a18c7f2f5e82b436d967","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1932705034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3bc422d52f93246002a3425632561130af98a602d243a18c7f2f5e82b436d967","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1607696518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463387002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463493601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463643438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464155733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615840963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639784049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636535605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654173545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4a8d299b5cf8be9a1979273a6d5740453efadbd28976e46896963f8738bc8545","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638564921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4a8d299b5cf8be9a1979273a6d5740453efadbd28976e46896963f8738bc8545","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653095577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4a8d299b5cf8be9a1979273a6d5740453efadbd28976e46896963f8738bc8545","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677028076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4a8d299b5cf8be9a1979273a6d5740453efadbd28976e46896963f8738bc8545","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737873324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465209736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461634859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462968821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046704838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"524b0478c524b80e74ce4a8f3c5b19cc0980418581e5d19ee30539c2a0c375bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296497251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"524b0478c524b80e74ce4a8f3c5b19cc0980418581e5d19ee30539c2a0c375bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145889618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"524b0478c524b80e74ce4a8f3c5b19cc0980418581e5d19ee30539c2a0c375bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854149569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"524b0478c524b80e74ce4a8f3c5b19cc0980418581e5d19ee30539c2a0c375bf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306000847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"52ca6b6e4b38a184b77b9a06ae75db1b30762eb5f7838d2fa4596430555e993b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612953206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"52ca6b6e4b38a184b77b9a06ae75db1b30762eb5f7838d2fa4596430555e993b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621443391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"52ca6b6e4b38a184b77b9a06ae75db1b30762eb5f7838d2fa4596430555e993b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"52ca6b6e4b38a184b77b9a06ae75db1b30762eb5f7838d2fa4596430555e993b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657827636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"56e6cb8efd8016906e1de891ee994fd7e3365cb8264305dbe813d3119dc80dc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473665214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"56e6cb8efd8016906e1de891ee994fd7e3365cb8264305dbe813d3119dc80dc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472900686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"56e6cb8efd8016906e1de891ee994fd7e3365cb8264305dbe813d3119dc80dc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475428556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"56e6cb8efd8016906e1de891ee994fd7e3365cb8264305dbe813d3119dc80dc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479479259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6780d561f985ba882c9513c0be2c115922ff2f6b6a57409b38b5be3a46e204da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636002727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6780d561f985ba882c9513c0be2c115922ff2f6b6a57409b38b5be3a46e204da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616889717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6780d561f985ba882c9513c0be2c115922ff2f6b6a57409b38b5be3a46e204da","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627248507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6780d561f985ba882c9513c0be2c115922ff2f6b6a57409b38b5be3a46e204da","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646582739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6c9255010941f6762f24096f66df89bdd1a02e3e302f5702b1e4a01252d87db5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631014485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6c9255010941f6762f24096f66df89bdd1a02e3e302f5702b1e4a01252d87db5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627914847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6c9255010941f6762f24096f66df89bdd1a02e3e302f5702b1e4a01252d87db5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639973457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6c9255010941f6762f24096f66df89bdd1a02e3e302f5702b1e4a01252d87db5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651906182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6f4d823f3463ec32ca8461a180de0956f3be017cdac9f8292c0f369c03f453e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466283728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6f4d823f3463ec32ca8461a180de0956f3be017cdac9f8292c0f369c03f453e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470918481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6f4d823f3463ec32ca8461a180de0956f3be017cdac9f8292c0f369c03f453e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482563003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6f4d823f3463ec32ca8461a180de0956f3be017cdac9f8292c0f369c03f453e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495275066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"715149aa6310841192f07abde9a0c88e354628b46009155b12947652b5f1febc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597507804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"715149aa6310841192f07abde9a0c88e354628b46009155b12947652b5f1febc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641463259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"715149aa6310841192f07abde9a0c88e354628b46009155b12947652b5f1febc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714597071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"715149aa6310841192f07abde9a0c88e354628b46009155b12947652b5f1febc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083087114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791862725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298791336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547773583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350620136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7a9662b3982076dfbcf944b2a87ffb0b70586d1c9d16d0e6565cfd41a6c87f7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798390227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7a9662b3982076dfbcf944b2a87ffb0b70586d1c9d16d0e6565cfd41a6c87f7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811669853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7a9662b3982076dfbcf944b2a87ffb0b70586d1c9d16d0e6565cfd41a6c87f7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884498995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7a9662b3982076dfbcf944b2a87ffb0b70586d1c9d16d0e6565cfd41a6c87f7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915946499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7c0826ceff3c1c5b9c54d4baaad26af69539b284d11d192966bd1de52a8b6053","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608997646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7c0826ceff3c1c5b9c54d4baaad26af69539b284d11d192966bd1de52a8b6053","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612473711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7c0826ceff3c1c5b9c54d4baaad26af69539b284d11d192966bd1de52a8b6053","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597968346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7c0826ceff3c1c5b9c54d4baaad26af69539b284d11d192966bd1de52a8b6053","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061616681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"80e9b944dc4dbf3d85acc62b66a9ea924872ce939bca810fa74f0be902bd8ce7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249739079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"80e9b944dc4dbf3d85acc62b66a9ea924872ce939bca810fa74f0be902bd8ce7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406721966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"80e9b944dc4dbf3d85acc62b66a9ea924872ce939bca810fa74f0be902bd8ce7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591504505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"80e9b944dc4dbf3d85acc62b66a9ea924872ce939bca810fa74f0be902bd8ce7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651124014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"887c6db80cbbd1592bad675e72497a9d9730bc0746265d2f099a7412e48d437f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796073139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"887c6db80cbbd1592bad675e72497a9d9730bc0746265d2f099a7412e48d437f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898671158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"887c6db80cbbd1592bad675e72497a9d9730bc0746265d2f099a7412e48d437f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999329403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"887c6db80cbbd1592bad675e72497a9d9730bc0746265d2f099a7412e48d437f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782722345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498926963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548636452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620001647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717937858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716253348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056397819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569075242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581787875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9838b0de9d5e3e34fcbb8959a23f07211e0d2f9ba5e97d360fb36385ab9a9327","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792803238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9838b0de9d5e3e34fcbb8959a23f07211e0d2f9ba5e97d360fb36385ab9a9327","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793040852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9838b0de9d5e3e34fcbb8959a23f07211e0d2f9ba5e97d360fb36385ab9a9327","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796834674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9838b0de9d5e3e34fcbb8959a23f07211e0d2f9ba5e97d360fb36385ab9a9327","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802455635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a3d3642dd3fa06a603e9c5bc3375eb3e7311be5e912fc7783b5a264ca5f618b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632581943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a3d3642dd3fa06a603e9c5bc3375eb3e7311be5e912fc7783b5a264ca5f618b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663070147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a3d3642dd3fa06a603e9c5bc3375eb3e7311be5e912fc7783b5a264ca5f618b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708785544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a3d3642dd3fa06a603e9c5bc3375eb3e7311be5e912fc7783b5a264ca5f618b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769161876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480252967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488783589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502391476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051750517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"af283189eab35fbe54e992751ff4f4e6ea26295bc4f7f0bc508652e9a88a1c19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507910032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"af283189eab35fbe54e992751ff4f4e6ea26295bc4f7f0bc508652e9a88a1c19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517850047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"af283189eab35fbe54e992751ff4f4e6ea26295bc4f7f0bc508652e9a88a1c19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539187556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"af283189eab35fbe54e992751ff4f4e6ea26295bc4f7f0bc508652e9a88a1c19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565202166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"afe81dfc1d70eddbaf80e8f7c2af20580ad51ac60ab1d343c661f45ea8c5be5f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614592308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"afe81dfc1d70eddbaf80e8f7c2af20580ad51ac60ab1d343c661f45ea8c5be5f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478500751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"afe81dfc1d70eddbaf80e8f7c2af20580ad51ac60ab1d343c661f45ea8c5be5f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492867206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"afe81dfc1d70eddbaf80e8f7c2af20580ad51ac60ab1d343c661f45ea8c5be5f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513653222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391644168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881792503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311406759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661850261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468755192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474199851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480997292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487410073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b9d431ef55b703b511f5d5ab5996e61ab3b6c58a476df4bfcf52075ccfab2dbb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614058824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b9d431ef55b703b511f5d5ab5996e61ab3b6c58a476df4bfcf52075ccfab2dbb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061747019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b9d431ef55b703b511f5d5ab5996e61ab3b6c58a476df4bfcf52075ccfab2dbb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626175809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b9d431ef55b703b511f5d5ab5996e61ab3b6c58a476df4bfcf52075ccfab2dbb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651350398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bbd1e81785ef849b814fc628d05e9e15d5a13e70b1c4d93310c6e2dc00ce77d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622554879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bbd1e81785ef849b814fc628d05e9e15d5a13e70b1c4d93310c6e2dc00ce77d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619873427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bbd1e81785ef849b814fc628d05e9e15d5a13e70b1c4d93310c6e2dc00ce77d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632701929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bbd1e81785ef849b814fc628d05e9e15d5a13e70b1c4d93310c6e2dc00ce77d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650915684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766388082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773223166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078700391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815815251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c12dd92e0dc4c0c79ce040c86e7d5b03486b998b13611d03f4a81cdb9b0177a4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769140114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c12dd92e0dc4c0c79ce040c86e7d5b03486b998b13611d03f4a81cdb9b0177a4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743912471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c12dd92e0dc4c0c79ce040c86e7d5b03486b998b13611d03f4a81cdb9b0177a4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760404075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c12dd92e0dc4c0c79ce040c86e7d5b03486b998b13611d03f4a81cdb9b0177a4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769303624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644658186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638285989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678844194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707003258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c9bb93a3e74ced4b7add8f2100cdeaa46237c20255e9861c7d7ae5e4b159a542","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190466177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c9bb93a3e74ced4b7add8f2100cdeaa46237c20255e9861c7d7ae5e4b159a542","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885512965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c9bb93a3e74ced4b7add8f2100cdeaa46237c20255e9861c7d7ae5e4b159a542","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655481873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c9bb93a3e74ced4b7add8f2100cdeaa46237c20255e9861c7d7ae5e4b159a542","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942739224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d0b89877a55aff1d755b286d4d6546142b0119a641bfea89f9acc72210190598","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665634554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d0b89877a55aff1d755b286d4d6546142b0119a641bfea89f9acc72210190598","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705238752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d0b89877a55aff1d755b286d4d6546142b0119a641bfea89f9acc72210190598","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762411488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d0b89877a55aff1d755b286d4d6546142b0119a641bfea89f9acc72210190598","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869120791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081721846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091567755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146789541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200754416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060476755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605359247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606613223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608076018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049072204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486018472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486813675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499061662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"dd4e5a9974475ddbbdaf357aae738fb3e1be853b5d6e17b6f384a38459871f9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144101591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"dd4e5a9974475ddbbdaf357aae738fb3e1be853b5d6e17b6f384a38459871f9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963142135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"dd4e5a9974475ddbbdaf357aae738fb3e1be853b5d6e17b6f384a38459871f9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001367671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"dd4e5a9974475ddbbdaf357aae738fb3e1be853b5d6e17b6f384a38459871f9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318982066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610075171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610075171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610091052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610099893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e17e2e7cd9e6238f55dda4a87017b373ceb04a9d13047102ad336554831c95cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615472817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e17e2e7cd9e6238f55dda4a87017b373ceb04a9d13047102ad336554831c95cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617122507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e17e2e7cd9e6238f55dda4a87017b373ceb04a9d13047102ad336554831c95cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621611018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e17e2e7cd9e6238f55dda4a87017b373ceb04a9d13047102ad336554831c95cf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627202571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e1c8b9c3a733ea28a201cf0c6db4a0301d2af390dd498641850055b4cdd4082e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466725447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e1c8b9c3a733ea28a201cf0c6db4a0301d2af390dd498641850055b4cdd4082e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467613002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e1c8b9c3a733ea28a201cf0c6db4a0301d2af390dd498641850055b4cdd4082e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469930408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e1c8b9c3a733ea28a201cf0c6db4a0301d2af390dd498641850055b4cdd4082e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474508203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527142662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538929003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573837562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621970059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e7c2022e7d0304edeec2ba366307f468df90284b13c88a9b2df82d097fc4a730","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464902742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e7c2022e7d0304edeec2ba366307f468df90284b13c88a9b2df82d097fc4a730","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461906832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e7c2022e7d0304edeec2ba366307f468df90284b13c88a9b2df82d097fc4a730","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463854478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e7c2022e7d0304edeec2ba366307f468df90284b13c88a9b2df82d097fc4a730","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468987694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e9acbd3edd3958af273c8aa3a22ce3d4d012ae9865771dac15574d2b5aa1faba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254421393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e9acbd3edd3958af273c8aa3a22ce3d4d012ae9865771dac15574d2b5aa1faba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4388812141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e9acbd3edd3958af273c8aa3a22ce3d4d012ae9865771dac15574d2b5aa1faba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400454339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e9acbd3edd3958af273c8aa3a22ce3d4d012ae9865771dac15574d2b5aa1faba","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357449362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280585738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473794352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253464199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129137542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071640039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709344155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696409195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689884663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ee1af13e0e1b084471674205ce3f430629ab96a8241f7bb4731808ebbac23e3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548080637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ee1af13e0e1b084471674205ce3f430629ab96a8241f7bb4731808ebbac23e3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336641211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ee1af13e0e1b084471674205ce3f430629ab96a8241f7bb4731808ebbac23e3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537938292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ee1af13e0e1b084471674205ce3f430629ab96a8241f7bb4731808ebbac23e3b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153302621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807583295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810673875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824993591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852095867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469516874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467664149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474032835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04835494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f711e2325c82921b7b9d48c5dce1295c191a739b9b91533ad606abeeee6f6bb7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717184416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f711e2325c82921b7b9d48c5dce1295c191a739b9b91533ad606abeeee6f6bb7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724057143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f711e2325c82921b7b9d48c5dce1295c191a739b9b91533ad606abeeee6f6bb7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738623677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f711e2325c82921b7b9d48c5dce1295c191a739b9b91533ad606abeeee6f6bb7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757822612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"fc22a20eb8097689f94477098e3c6e5065be3ee90024a8349d16376c2dda8024","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579976975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"fc22a20eb8097689f94477098e3c6e5065be3ee90024a8349d16376c2dda8024","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571335631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"fc22a20eb8097689f94477098e3c6e5065be3ee90024a8349d16376c2dda8024","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"fc22a20eb8097689f94477098e3c6e5065be3ee90024a8349d16376c2dda8024","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514079656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4889826626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168010938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760576996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681539755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4231760842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412443932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857971505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753101451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4899189407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176241756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944409058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109546255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.427437142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957041611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512786668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474546434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.412821594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094449782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570420379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051339939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4187758542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257866532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645825102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554656343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887075558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242028781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671642676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626587355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4740980502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281834923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707712583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751596292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4042108621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572270816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935147198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698580853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4726679988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130608246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716164535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660730421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3916223853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979934187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560183927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510836172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999595499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104428796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658822414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565064686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.198737099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901290621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562797745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495457375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701907891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214029919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576604362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515746475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5057544294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943640348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557538942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510557381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4219677185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828669353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508912267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473781764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439880704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118381047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752219742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674875833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088724902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929807758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704344157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657731583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4179056495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148717438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752043875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682418776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4358423566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116174608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563258862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052370584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.41121124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090241806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564616939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511896195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4200670607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152509412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623439481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660823498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4461391591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170002716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689347226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582900698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4411491428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150506064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598818827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520717953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4417375917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288040224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710699879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606017404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163574063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567951255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513028846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050070969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1544442618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670022277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566162052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4765594611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141564099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706342747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659127084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.413867464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034734597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589596522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532614258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4441989241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147651203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850914093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804683622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4244313937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1557273724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916694059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777053907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996435554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841829011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590841523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519306401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4566313205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029110599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070828252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657230247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727775252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139492296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576533782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499728052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.469376231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11925789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854502498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668685974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379139959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185935496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188832914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229698353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251323207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115826748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213930216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101708027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788334734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5405041161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334989608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312451063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683813443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274116799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.197007634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200195497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4063478933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4992135191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.571134532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5895456761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836699733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647876836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353149252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205828221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4149016706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.514230526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1688905928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707283499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288479373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2031093332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012177894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049608817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4528105084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1547255188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226311525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195446224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683358164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787721053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875086565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063901178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.449165104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948505336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001526568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163064109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008423935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734455929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962811405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609806633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285240293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553385727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772764084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296013934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149635773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348857301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860857762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129866527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453859026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37816025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742747037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000728522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457513535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193393779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923054394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110216373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295675476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3469852617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507297028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229145094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1967686499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165680022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271107423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543475256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265552763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077055518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884422237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117558833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804004067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587843122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289428193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311154887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415201105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409909212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158308319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603656849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413839104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198485119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990757615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293553938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3733973802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4143067502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253500969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141306915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178390625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1525597654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303296606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380175789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619300532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3962833327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826149819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657185567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617528312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3946240932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896856699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997136095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115445554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329127932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943818507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929240127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895972291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157779835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265290983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108791829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3438118486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722689242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296011864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597486955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524821345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478635765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871203682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329101162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617276774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3998250048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220990091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984126164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180334109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580140853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884199287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168493537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.151137046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1920480856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468513863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1784739335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869704041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.204379872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727461731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545035541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338348391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229400205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433428447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287832286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157380632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934148717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256402291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593284415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901688746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087348583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1371654381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172286786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222962849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161738643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109047443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021406342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551349577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575030427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530132059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353633549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206630838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048992904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235778477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296315745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732717389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609599677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4155628425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548297239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322773141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774412935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301157165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168588089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.373473196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4314078185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681250625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362046175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037441887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1747892067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830391785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219808039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618784743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965391263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806764899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548762943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342381347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005648798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267952727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406616755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159943581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291009034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36310161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4016153254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4379205785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637996215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917838741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263047338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576737092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918947067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992129661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078614282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245944904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950045929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050343681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044360242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067957697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245593979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2044473947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981577891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223354949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4540823547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553786342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430493788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488488074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3910498309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711021066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510505221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6083414139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1908476716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235998433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251795317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695998641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300909667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1936101055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681609071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179902861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601162486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123859937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1835440759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5552605271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5046757567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4650287459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084963788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983092887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217693073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534808124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3972274308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901075006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683932976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125002218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1659727838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982445102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133148886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291072507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443602751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897857879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979114122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092157672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155824138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510589101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397479499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024031767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3390438766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3407706877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103966382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799436754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574064579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551639442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1989235721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1564776521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261667592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426164767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605779371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894457727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4614039449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070637641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213786394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336838257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457842735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922317511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224155775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061059555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313564457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.204891088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190834042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1771900709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1691923458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241282494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492255488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4369630608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884016259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428241035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278617614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283978817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259722368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805119029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661841963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715810683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002770601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568223756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366663565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2182411642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091811041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133352887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986553577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988249991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992323515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211106736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310330443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746690662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338151003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632813178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741721848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6859588231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5667458768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846788859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983995981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5862648187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985557417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133824585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135724363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142034803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154439236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654612312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664248833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673053687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746425119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986620046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987845909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991414168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999564981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133354058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133888702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135917897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139959229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998433337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015926588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067689955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150025046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986958212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990021972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008641562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045913675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064559732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121563664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241051475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389682941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988489204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991847047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999216187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016360067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986725881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989156185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000400754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024529701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133632843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134478626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139872114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156833663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986723534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987568159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992267145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100692411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133722244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988095133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992418747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100542135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631699909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727594784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.648388336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5356829597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986271816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986470616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988215118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099393151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986695302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987728122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099005388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996829412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986607659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987275816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098925735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994139132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6636060862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6591066116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5047246402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.42250483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986430621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09869635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989167949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996595317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198578199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280921525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478133788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789719714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09510677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127915052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1473888887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2005350515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707141557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756948961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6960868827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5674560297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986664735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987505842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991046647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001254396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146525294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1577475129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1876675482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361408292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277980692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386203348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1650657759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206853543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595883876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654524087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103118759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558006814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040744866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146567803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306954955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488344949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986314781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987214706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989709356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998271156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986741914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098817807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992558146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004639089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987785757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992920451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004570267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029625577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133428755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113409103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135680256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139538041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987974564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991101846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997922814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014287391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986958206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988257466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099321277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004392053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205001241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152607026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4902186156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4063940552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986602954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077709961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6204523021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5371065946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244572828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524246051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.452960097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104606138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663813587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800186856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6185460649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5682626806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6890237728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6098664774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4891616852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3824000478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986488855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987729299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991877655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005347288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632350794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729986451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908008872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110646792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998251005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032252329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091096633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200058615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988276876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989411449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099453144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101462027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818094088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914729862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293626791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915377713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189696884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317211404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1875499149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590415662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987855754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989388517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993754495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007872876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986899978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989141481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999302059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037167637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135309117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147651205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263515322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566417596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e9ae183b7e834f6311488072a7cbe5c8f887bfd2629b42d59bc83caa0d32fd07","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994720829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e9ae183b7e834f6311488072a7cbe5c8f887bfd2629b42d59bc83caa0d32fd07","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020249025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e9ae183b7e834f6311488072a7cbe5c8f887bfd2629b42d59bc83caa0d32fd07","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107760762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e9ae183b7e834f6311488072a7cbe5c8f887bfd2629b42d59bc83caa0d32fd07","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180639706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.712594483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6474197411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.541243905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4433024013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133530678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113437752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989349204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995317448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969536003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782655122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539201128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3694754221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279979328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531453701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215877176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19817159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101007728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316540168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619209262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3896715709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038369413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323827358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432648411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223859976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878165862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309281338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858348178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615416378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740694759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464552536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273464054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4207074077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896247793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799029034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263543131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516578411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109627842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301368243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660081121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.399746568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869826592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270562724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577655851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233266814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327002146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120852952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417885789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.373203151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032338681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247006696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527548374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781648984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825747575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263176089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397378683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2200729945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037449053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211603217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501899364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3806346567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140150739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3421597166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754061371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4126666347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143260455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418784832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3737920475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4100830736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132712513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361965147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362574407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4036352321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060748728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630982159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391673638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989765199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761620796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309064121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521220961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.380317589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112674425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626368787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435544265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173699008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853102606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309253882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3675271374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4055971702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076420205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634849444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377905392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2154290054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077687068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246721944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EIX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506210726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EIX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354563785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"FIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118643486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"FIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333532234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"FIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3694252796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"FIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3983613823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012663028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619263791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706534691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105535444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801324077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261147683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353738799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117726751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047715266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155541256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642437773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561920876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863921024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263495433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370164155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2147548332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081868983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739823653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542469659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323360366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881063633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677738405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597464972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3924878773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951765738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767176782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593270238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360742351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845566125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686785921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488820846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746096941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292257406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269669269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518027413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330873673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887281641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735457449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515121216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3819847929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161827934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470531576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243162983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025741546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851862696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335322674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619888883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21750179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305056808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287449664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531724475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228173658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113558543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311753138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3588731864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3921629927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109188209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419796304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835575316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4282300658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078986086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207914094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424961264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3708149965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093140086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331678543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657914791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.401414792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122350861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581378983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346044801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2137607573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860583069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751763895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620515751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492713219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064853414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703095662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428612615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2200774226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849632699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319679597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582858991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3862340517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106200624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270073476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352212575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314314102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912360498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742482307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495067538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3809095196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987913622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160250666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459562244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789746467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074032516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229116265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448831316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372319186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904505566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137686755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276552232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429409508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113210285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551805831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234231302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108569571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852197292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708253605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526665027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354611487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963885095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217573822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527921743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373524748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885484728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034544737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685170916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531830843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097719521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252721451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442809299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667123013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095217821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329992078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601260012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3900837456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051364005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769635076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408580761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479942804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056484678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662113227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429956449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224537939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280156238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626153716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418937622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242628423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884650357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630529232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2384471869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158530595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058602508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655776508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471558816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248231313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083965746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610804979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381883996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161873005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514514728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517407233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525786812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526263194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07831824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647068334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646363084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646877234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0cce8e2e3c7450545404b68c54bef00a17e1d48b0bec8d863ca3780cea83c9dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643636807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0cce8e2e3c7450545404b68c54bef00a17e1d48b0bec8d863ca3780cea83c9dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650666178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0cce8e2e3c7450545404b68c54bef00a17e1d48b0bec8d863ca3780cea83c9dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066625478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0cce8e2e3c7450545404b68c54bef00a17e1d48b0bec8d863ca3780cea83c9dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687424943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"11b57e99712b298f2a97104d10205dd0dcaf858960e5cf32d2b612a87c43740e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643981802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"11b57e99712b298f2a97104d10205dd0dcaf858960e5cf32d2b612a87c43740e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648606427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"11b57e99712b298f2a97104d10205dd0dcaf858960e5cf32d2b612a87c43740e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636548486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"11b57e99712b298f2a97104d10205dd0dcaf858960e5cf32d2b612a87c43740e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640624006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"18e6bbf2ac288adbb5a18fa251494c80469f3a97d1e516aa664f1194b8b00dc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512881476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"18e6bbf2ac288adbb5a18fa251494c80469f3a97d1e516aa664f1194b8b00dc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514604872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"18e6bbf2ac288adbb5a18fa251494c80469f3a97d1e516aa664f1194b8b00dc2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521641692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"18e6bbf2ac288adbb5a18fa251494c80469f3a97d1e516aa664f1194b8b00dc2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530896129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"1f6ea2b11a7e82ec63828373f1492524c696b15cedc9322255de817f1c902e9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575487811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"1f6ea2b11a7e82ec63828373f1492524c696b15cedc9322255de817f1c902e9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866495078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"1f6ea2b11a7e82ec63828373f1492524c696b15cedc9322255de817f1c902e9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858493972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"1f6ea2b11a7e82ec63828373f1492524c696b15cedc9322255de817f1c902e9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913343659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653680279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657477646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671082158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687272817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"24f48970b33655db3ef398f3f7e2b1312ff8f6a15ee8215caedefc18968d77ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28508087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"24f48970b33655db3ef398f3f7e2b1312ff8f6a15ee8215caedefc18968d77ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740898771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"24f48970b33655db3ef398f3f7e2b1312ff8f6a15ee8215caedefc18968d77ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760111953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"24f48970b33655db3ef398f3f7e2b1312ff8f6a15ee8215caedefc18968d77ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426993602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"25c3f1b2e05b73f6803f231e4f0f12b9c9e87f6fbbc9d8c2fd71044ab729fdd7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561927072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"25c3f1b2e05b73f6803f231e4f0f12b9c9e87f6fbbc9d8c2fd71044ab729fdd7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057736291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"25c3f1b2e05b73f6803f231e4f0f12b9c9e87f6fbbc9d8c2fd71044ab729fdd7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619250594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"25c3f1b2e05b73f6803f231e4f0f12b9c9e87f6fbbc9d8c2fd71044ab729fdd7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672154011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3946275903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371477022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340507964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306541731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972954003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835293397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791542087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871405757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575731508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456976875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301312728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4144514861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"342a14e2377140e8a95d331b6c112002f902a6bacd1017b3ead112d3438b6bb1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511333367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"342a14e2377140e8a95d331b6c112002f902a6bacd1017b3ead112d3438b6bb1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513674343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"342a14e2377140e8a95d331b6c112002f902a6bacd1017b3ead112d3438b6bb1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518701096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"342a14e2377140e8a95d331b6c112002f902a6bacd1017b3ead112d3438b6bb1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526146467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1353877059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818761841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487349718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1575823526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"3ca0979645976ff5355304f9b516663a361f953fa9ad0947f06f169c9b114c27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764157128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"3ca0979645976ff5355304f9b516663a361f953fa9ad0947f06f169c9b114c27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078209645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"3ca0979645976ff5355304f9b516663a361f953fa9ad0947f06f169c9b114c27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815753207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"3ca0979645976ff5355304f9b516663a361f953fa9ad0947f06f169c9b114c27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865641681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943735633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8405142201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777689525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862580206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646977247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650937795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066095918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066396749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"51f25df1e65bb2ccc486f571efa06a85c0051cb8e151d74501691c214a7c895f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817948773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"51f25df1e65bb2ccc486f571efa06a85c0051cb8e151d74501691c214a7c895f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803735756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"51f25df1e65bb2ccc486f571efa06a85c0051cb8e151d74501691c214a7c895f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851393396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"51f25df1e65bb2ccc486f571efa06a85c0051cb8e151d74501691c214a7c895f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883884729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"5407de55729fda0b39a70bfee6689e18fd527b9cf57dcb9ce050ff2f6d19eaf4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3620915143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"5407de55729fda0b39a70bfee6689e18fd527b9cf57dcb9ce050ff2f6d19eaf4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3500214249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"5407de55729fda0b39a70bfee6689e18fd527b9cf57dcb9ce050ff2f6d19eaf4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307713958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"5407de55729fda0b39a70bfee6689e18fd527b9cf57dcb9ce050ff2f6d19eaf4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436994985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511976004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515231601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522168439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530354944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"674ebd85626e739eb7a4b759c8afd13b9cb1900902fda976750ce2fa104c1573","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514556323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"674ebd85626e739eb7a4b759c8afd13b9cb1900902fda976750ce2fa104c1573","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510627585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"674ebd85626e739eb7a4b759c8afd13b9cb1900902fda976750ce2fa104c1573","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509997098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"674ebd85626e739eb7a4b759c8afd13b9cb1900902fda976750ce2fa104c1573","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051059695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296773306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454660918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517284311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682761191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063863821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639275274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640359523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641468149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506921205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507473197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508901337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05107341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"87c956de55d1ac0ea8afe8293c9447209ad5cc607a22c453043125c008ef7cc6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316125582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"87c956de55d1ac0ea8afe8293c9447209ad5cc607a22c453043125c008ef7cc6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3478131723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"87c956de55d1ac0ea8afe8293c9447209ad5cc607a22c453043125c008ef7cc6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683575059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"87c956de55d1ac0ea8afe8293c9447209ad5cc607a22c453043125c008ef7cc6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697682272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"8b2f4815aef61f9a0b81fce8bbc17136c8e6487509ceb57fcb3a54dff30b17f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667705381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"8b2f4815aef61f9a0b81fce8bbc17136c8e6487509ceb57fcb3a54dff30b17f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677483574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"8b2f4815aef61f9a0b81fce8bbc17136c8e6487509ceb57fcb3a54dff30b17f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695019156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"8b2f4815aef61f9a0b81fce8bbc17136c8e6487509ceb57fcb3a54dff30b17f1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716651093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"93a724b0c420f128e996e873a82865c23ea53aaf6a2956e8be8d6b375e6c2894","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557768196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"93a724b0c420f128e996e873a82865c23ea53aaf6a2956e8be8d6b375e6c2894","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377867379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"93a724b0c420f128e996e873a82865c23ea53aaf6a2956e8be8d6b375e6c2894","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684469919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"93a724b0c420f128e996e873a82865c23ea53aaf6a2956e8be8d6b375e6c2894","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699787826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401067092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624242676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717986889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36277679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9a32899e0bf1edb236fa826f670493274c7e0fca42b8e8022f56e7432fc5c3c4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522027877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9a32899e0bf1edb236fa826f670493274c7e0fca42b8e8022f56e7432fc5c3c4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532360932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9a32899e0bf1edb236fa826f670493274c7e0fca42b8e8022f56e7432fc5c3c4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550308945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9a32899e0bf1edb236fa826f670493274c7e0fca42b8e8022f56e7432fc5c3c4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9566717831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510396102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517684641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531423614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547987515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349224252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154859493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205844961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052590094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9ed9286e52a16be3a5beb1a443e795bc2429300215c6ac967ec14cadbeb6e75f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634410368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9ed9286e52a16be3a5beb1a443e795bc2429300215c6ac967ec14cadbeb6e75f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269866621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9ed9286e52a16be3a5beb1a443e795bc2429300215c6ac967ec14cadbeb6e75f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226176372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9ed9286e52a16be3a5beb1a443e795bc2429300215c6ac967ec14cadbeb6e75f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141480455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049317887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130356457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1555753676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326745707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"acc636ad694b7666aeba3df0f4980bb294c650e6df097329ad7f91532d95b253","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650313335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"acc636ad694b7666aeba3df0f4980bb294c650e6df097329ad7f91532d95b253","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658504235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"acc636ad694b7666aeba3df0f4980bb294c650e6df097329ad7f91532d95b253","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684246741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"acc636ad694b7666aeba3df0f4980bb294c650e6df097329ad7f91532d95b253","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699637815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"afeef9ddc9b6c6d1773d7a0a0ba5bc1df5a1ceb0a01ff1b2995082894c463896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515461722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"afeef9ddc9b6c6d1773d7a0a0ba5bc1df5a1ceb0a01ff1b2995082894c463896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525049079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"afeef9ddc9b6c6d1773d7a0a0ba5bc1df5a1ceb0a01ff1b2995082894c463896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540864159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"afeef9ddc9b6c6d1773d7a0a0ba5bc1df5a1ceb0a01ff1b2995082894c463896","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559557796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b56531512fb6a9e91e9af934df3b6f506a3f2103e10af0ce96705c79dec40ae9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061841315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b56531512fb6a9e91e9af934df3b6f506a3f2103e10af0ce96705c79dec40ae9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125593285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b56531512fb6a9e91e9af934df3b6f506a3f2103e10af0ce96705c79dec40ae9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191146029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b56531512fb6a9e91e9af934df3b6f506a3f2103e10af0ce96705c79dec40ae9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266123235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b6731f4873a909384d27d0ffdc950be2060df2966878f2b2edf8ab4d8fbae363","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519568727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b6731f4873a909384d27d0ffdc950be2060df2966878f2b2edf8ab4d8fbae363","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524294127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b6731f4873a909384d27d0ffdc950be2060df2966878f2b2edf8ab4d8fbae363","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532925404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b6731f4873a909384d27d0ffdc950be2060df2966878f2b2edf8ab4d8fbae363","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541366655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b835e277f744bcf6725ac1ee456a5bd4be38e8a39ee7b8a746917c25aaf0600a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615158244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b835e277f744bcf6725ac1ee456a5bd4be38e8a39ee7b8a746917c25aaf0600a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641024451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b835e277f744bcf6725ac1ee456a5bd4be38e8a39ee7b8a746917c25aaf0600a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650136821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b835e277f744bcf6725ac1ee456a5bd4be38e8a39ee7b8a746917c25aaf0600a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068440531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c677c77ae293deb8ec68f74fa184fcd0ce5edd2636f5a4c193eb16f6bf8a829d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657671392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c677c77ae293deb8ec68f74fa184fcd0ce5edd2636f5a4c193eb16f6bf8a829d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676683514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c677c77ae293deb8ec68f74fa184fcd0ce5edd2636f5a4c193eb16f6bf8a829d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07059408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c677c77ae293deb8ec68f74fa184fcd0ce5edd2636f5a4c193eb16f6bf8a829d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743014551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262927808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529430595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248929517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953572904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3873817993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4115890926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652866927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337793419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525412287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530805006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053979309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549776049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e0b9e5b9defdf81501ce852410053d9fda0f31b5d5f70d948fe3a2c591047595","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065093292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e0b9e5b9defdf81501ce852410053d9fda0f31b5d5f70d948fe3a2c591047595","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645272933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e0b9e5b9defdf81501ce852410053d9fda0f31b5d5f70d948fe3a2c591047595","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652731332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e0b9e5b9defdf81501ce852410053d9fda0f31b5d5f70d948fe3a2c591047595","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675476713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e2542e4e9629f8f80fe226a4129912b4f3f0219121807974e920c3b9589df19c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1372535954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e2542e4e9629f8f80fe226a4129912b4f3f0219121807974e920c3b9589df19c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445173362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e2542e4e9629f8f80fe226a4129912b4f3f0219121807974e920c3b9589df19c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6725991164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e2542e4e9629f8f80fe226a4129912b4f3f0219121807974e920c3b9589df19c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1544250214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658955877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671446945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8963624657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743872745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"edf3adf1735d53cb20af975a837c6076f11edbebb6551ac2d2e4f47c590f790a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768574815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"edf3adf1735d53cb20af975a837c6076f11edbebb6551ac2d2e4f47c590f790a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637451875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"edf3adf1735d53cb20af975a837c6076f11edbebb6551ac2d2e4f47c590f790a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638087629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"edf3adf1735d53cb20af975a837c6076f11edbebb6551ac2d2e4f47c590f790a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638936653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512568091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515106336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519831052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052538123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508241277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508288004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509256533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510676329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"fc9f2a466cd4e1b13920afdcdf403d468f31124894ee70f56b95d420d84c5c66","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731298821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"fc9f2a466cd4e1b13920afdcdf403d468f31124894ee70f56b95d420d84c5c66","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494233099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"fc9f2a466cd4e1b13920afdcdf403d468f31124894ee70f56b95d420d84c5c66","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379164562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"fc9f2a466cd4e1b13920afdcdf403d468f31124894ee70f56b95d420d84c5c66","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281769886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"ff6ddb84aeb6fa873054302a4c05d0641384836ea11b3e4a40dc7c044d156aa5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053893923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"ff6ddb84aeb6fa873054302a4c05d0641384836ea11b3e4a40dc7c044d156aa5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554602506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"ff6ddb84aeb6fa873054302a4c05d0641384836ea11b3e4a40dc7c044d156aa5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579680014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"ff6ddb84aeb6fa873054302a4c05d0641384836ea11b3e4a40dc7c044d156aa5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607848286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5295917856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200854619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122096075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206899201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5326271691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913213884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596659766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356011168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5380182362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999934454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871337205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866933944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5888321308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905919921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600931936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4555966804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5158020292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970148283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061313099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994892296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5230745695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940544666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640003125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229785803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4775189419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120705633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808125582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4626863259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1935761728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977289342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080847378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4440843139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5138527905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953465721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768437198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4249324724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5264552853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913533476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588213862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671715415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5700722221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910756338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808836467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3716470179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5469011443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902855246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788734209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753442458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4980717892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889274421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797840731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620308794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5364029041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878698749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789010037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849087572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.456455462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427606554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1305595123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396800964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5375506399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902081056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07533393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091984526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5235210401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934676779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786220704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015342561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4633777707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953138512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736674382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2053877928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5189299036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997078796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651048336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217137714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4875363962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132618639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976919077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4882026857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057246857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786108964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638003376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4659974727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242625094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1096974708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238514087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.507662231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980234362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805381247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491728862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5073190635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905276633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793532767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324147178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5653400936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863936521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748281776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3960209264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5389460182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896116423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596707668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3771694945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5463883145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863973414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712474195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294355582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.510253093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968370839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802051839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338238532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6008055733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816109165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745122918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4906561807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4779306715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059706204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876937979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5615946942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904157531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785221097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5270738161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.588675587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885603788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741812466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.470141182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481755581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099276241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798946147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041802143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5331325235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975417381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064819689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4504876176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5191152254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957125905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584982363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901934636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4022865436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288099344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5601925797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082356212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523001117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106589414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2222735665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824329213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5465538525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444436742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001826141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993785522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1716915133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482672229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450858682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317161342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557059309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548495133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938585569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215120511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717717875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1600583264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773271667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2192280686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1805954922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1762910097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893031418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172399141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982109682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816139373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720106424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4583966813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278216863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6511380934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5072955792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522921274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864409203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1672803772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965350847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4712951695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477851185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860586246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612479645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436121904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587487719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976716831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857082369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.434336216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559835804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000910827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863100662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5241265096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6813926342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093686359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2093651415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064165238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866724709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271623382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140805757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083509957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28259665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595304869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315805768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149521577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803772032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416873237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115895432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943302598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874640734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890672146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924618099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097165181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966917016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862191745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843663826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934043835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776356406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653394022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479288928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041845837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795890458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3632824282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327094549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956941408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869458103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819320202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867197243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002208936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935568727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270625171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776975822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590899504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203085979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1817857395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1516701871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067517415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326040276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3683433419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3966080965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156168553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1854467399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618605184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15103788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008890854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777077058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619903162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326926173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270083123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865478856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130096727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377029901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051444322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988252698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026490166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118620587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013364237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966223166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900469105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846313933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838963599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926647064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171476524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649652812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331353461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323468599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111530595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002406427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985030414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765709198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690159659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571057443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904758152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766287759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262014224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497133239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271873651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041697226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163977305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302604068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004396774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137831766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292172148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949078351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798434257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539175428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193161038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1943226418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751036118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917248115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341538879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864763899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525429122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4102452561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699911992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1409072198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674036817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721706787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851924668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985874771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3421114422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816307434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897208191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017401737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847599717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947193203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3860556141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3726373146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540355319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511494536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692573823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3705826455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411585648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313732606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783509102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551766025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775569317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406952665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947270605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003128304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095022608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194713185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900438396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238107149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627240885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4076652129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3611060811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222136524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692828878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228919971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872956196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004777297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350922334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818201357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305484551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106212073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924801759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27618959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193453505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573465211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987809273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2165513915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123240082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383798932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1742653292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342032962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976756132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300687517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305028421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426016272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847816948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754333966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497763919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3630283024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293378054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874124575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311923135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572657213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572621233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640576485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792699381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.478007257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4346200149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620620924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859605838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.135050298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424588114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162531468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1883313202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244011628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557490024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902426732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371702684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510692692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777055281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079693319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962615376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324399782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527571368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635349446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275534381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402031807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981593963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654117869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203080232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366284387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598411877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724469535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380145829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466761296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721578826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744852386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294827521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933589491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019459342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115900694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7055547767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6630857488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566631203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015579259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795366767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898433582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146820751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1534418434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980518623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981662481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985711061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992762983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102374406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047409437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086045303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163551279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6840412768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6140579196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5183815375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4298008556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105340237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206476159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714756939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219247722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980501789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981352222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983929741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989287198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110887816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111591071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114172349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121002898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097913161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979449052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981792137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986570159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659091012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963117495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986814956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687574726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980343856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980951309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983788017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989702518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979131589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979714566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981407243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984589485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997981026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016284608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110026411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229558297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111954153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114000225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119522056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132761281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980514132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981234371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983794396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989450157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856427776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996762963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310859008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786608976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157100497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1596305836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164577741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733155804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979474262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980623895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990124155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016568879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515666993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541896407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653217057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873351168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979343186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980084868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983325316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990905311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110797682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111372514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113776115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119094629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1625687341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1813421016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376937968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922540913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327387608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311332758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445035448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1621889217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110938775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111364776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114306715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11206778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980659163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981847222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988988225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009580571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270992445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326105326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1496549937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664467883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112216289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113167999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120170546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138142504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514205212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541869562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617453167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762052627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112151548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113002324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116453722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123681563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983512715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991773333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014318568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076208765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979093821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097961464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982065131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986725917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941452686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007132817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253482657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465933074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080478906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900170664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131307875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5825956762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c11db639ef0a30ced800a69d5c3725b7f5b5e7c1df7735ceb4165154e82a05ac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205945398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c11db639ef0a30ced800a69d5c3725b7f5b5e7c1df7735ceb4165154e82a05ac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367049416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c11db639ef0a30ced800a69d5c3725b7f5b5e7c1df7735ceb4165154e82a05ac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836180796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c11db639ef0a30ced800a69d5c3725b7f5b5e7c1df7735ceb4165154e82a05ac","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508089563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980566519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981467696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986874248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004225094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1391988375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558366902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084650171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3821785012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511999117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529595233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577775577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665580871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259048902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.138417372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5640983827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.475296635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110691999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111055076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112287878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114735584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374394106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476934594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045276308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589562064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310543175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435823649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.202864243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4433869613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216846014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1296225406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514887209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1853881432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980552843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981714825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984477549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991572904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980501252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981349806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983749195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989114542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771555573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087929479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204793731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5230713437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112164176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112894277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116775867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124277431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7769421253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.697488861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5877175207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5084806799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979133694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979417544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980926584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983637596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139397929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329246546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535738696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795112411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863271593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766740843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258378283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430151118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290265852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719393975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489567481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296595943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130618177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383209936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427160203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.402997316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282001757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576411175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3839616004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2063951454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118338845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209087335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391174657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3559725013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906211082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328261161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491407244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390296746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164032243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647129922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399454547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181466007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203080532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665433636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440892717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239183927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316188506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353096328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468635705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236085756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071988885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276954575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495918496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719042708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152846166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269165742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445227179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3942113142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110778985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323700681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643497071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638763218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099240321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711459417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602907162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390901816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151485631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380712837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362304409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3899140264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132885728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241808014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436573922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501319421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180996213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356637906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610981923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3895170245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122392932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329773337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571955283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836461743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316083965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298924052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560992313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417342906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886075199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351155353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650920581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957796229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050230765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185409583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335651148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535690947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133239467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330626272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563220377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344348146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855662631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651450913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444192036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227139308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054299705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831372208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411602879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647515479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896737559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282247069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564815421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3861042488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786103355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620080982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403773963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208231529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191241547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638632992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411586989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4035972519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182364686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330724241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583864285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723764653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151751812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657091225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418519691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197605247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766114537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606474584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24637347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364316755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153802955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271854008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518106843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319901256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134213153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287964067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555623227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407455947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134393114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211018736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758585029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652493903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124261248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349596849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359824081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.384888298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084804637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823661686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258415394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238635189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118811944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329716923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.361299288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3920069055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875216664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271559599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486720436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262790955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102866149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273734498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500585157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228475576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187645748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433860097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720266661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185169808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197953657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588299272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328426585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4166824624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011276595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001236494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049870053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967040188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130712728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724439654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532833941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3834917448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857075179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699513886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250866109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316108104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318446249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665060554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416165583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4005559013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083818974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203799302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268265027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548823061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162483577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370278554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246159163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2230805483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169695187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643911155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413382829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245928726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186223433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259553864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338026363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112585812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1804426431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1889801717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4785054185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280738305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511062568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511066688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051147633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511746151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714665071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769254336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780070992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166696702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635808188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636073444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636775472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638364811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1738d25709cb374aed7f84e35fd58e45f2ca11b2f9f498f02ae5491f98d395ea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063383814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1738d25709cb374aed7f84e35fd58e45f2ca11b2f9f498f02ae5491f98d395ea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629383782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1738d25709cb374aed7f84e35fd58e45f2ca11b2f9f498f02ae5491f98d395ea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990078816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1738d25709cb374aed7f84e35fd58e45f2ca11b2f9f498f02ae5491f98d395ea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729566597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"18a3eaf3f3072efb0d7ce2368758f37231b473f3fe2eebbf093acc33210b0c1f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8725732923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"18a3eaf3f3072efb0d7ce2368758f37231b473f3fe2eebbf093acc33210b0c1f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8382189343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"18a3eaf3f3072efb0d7ce2368758f37231b473f3fe2eebbf093acc33210b0c1f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982143569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"18a3eaf3f3072efb0d7ce2368758f37231b473f3fe2eebbf093acc33210b0c1f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7136247948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1a5e379d6670bfe8564e978d9d627fc1ab82309d9ab68189df11062370c824e7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238808623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1a5e379d6670bfe8564e978d9d627fc1ab82309d9ab68189df11062370c824e7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221567171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1a5e379d6670bfe8564e978d9d627fc1ab82309d9ab68189df11062370c824e7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280503298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1a5e379d6670bfe8564e978d9d627fc1ab82309d9ab68189df11062370c824e7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338659949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957377856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862059386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090314958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946208711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"237701ddf6119e28919865e295241bce1ca865485c4fd0dcb7c8d887584c4a78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982479271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"237701ddf6119e28919865e295241bce1ca865485c4fd0dcb7c8d887584c4a78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926215059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"237701ddf6119e28919865e295241bce1ca865485c4fd0dcb7c8d887584c4a78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1648301393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"237701ddf6119e28919865e295241bce1ca865485c4fd0dcb7c8d887584c4a78","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1712737845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686618587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690193129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752681308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779234139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512260556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512954991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515287919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520900755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885648151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885663675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088615521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886758806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"3db338f224fae1f451242b9d0a4a9d4794270b234aa2ade2b88918150345588f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1948034366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"3db338f224fae1f451242b9d0a4a9d4794270b234aa2ade2b88918150345588f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5458958764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"3db338f224fae1f451242b9d0a4a9d4794270b234aa2ade2b88918150345588f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181626941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"3db338f224fae1f451242b9d0a4a9d4794270b234aa2ade2b88918150345588f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311100325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656840534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706083344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793262073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093523806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4a5dc440b8c896ff727c47ee44703f6989406e177ac6de9ae9446ddeafdff8f3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519588272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4a5dc440b8c896ff727c47ee44703f6989406e177ac6de9ae9446ddeafdff8f3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522373183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4a5dc440b8c896ff727c47ee44703f6989406e177ac6de9ae9446ddeafdff8f3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527945006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4a5dc440b8c896ff727c47ee44703f6989406e177ac6de9ae9446ddeafdff8f3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533769821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4bffb59ef6e138c3d53c69a2490b5a7b24fad812dbb28bf61bb9324602f74042","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305841457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4bffb59ef6e138c3d53c69a2490b5a7b24fad812dbb28bf61bb9324602f74042","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188910422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4bffb59ef6e138c3d53c69a2490b5a7b24fad812dbb28bf61bb9324602f74042","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347745125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4bffb59ef6e138c3d53c69a2490b5a7b24fad812dbb28bf61bb9324602f74042","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3787591392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4f2be874bff16e09c3ce6611fc413654bdec80e424c95401535c43ebfb5b76ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638656343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4f2be874bff16e09c3ce6611fc413654bdec80e424c95401535c43ebfb5b76ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639510387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4f2be874bff16e09c3ce6611fc413654bdec80e424c95401535c43ebfb5b76ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641966185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4f2be874bff16e09c3ce6611fc413654bdec80e424c95401535c43ebfb5b76ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06461097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685540497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719613914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074333816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776699599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"526ff622b728157065b9b3f1236205e16706819d62ee42706073056ce13adc45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760741113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"526ff622b728157065b9b3f1236205e16706819d62ee42706073056ce13adc45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760743616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"526ff622b728157065b9b3f1236205e16706819d62ee42706073056ce13adc45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636007102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"526ff622b728157065b9b3f1236205e16706819d62ee42706073056ce13adc45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636519231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"53a22dbab619912a0508c7ebd7347b9c9a6e264e0f77f7d8b502c8c5ec21eca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521359716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"53a22dbab619912a0508c7ebd7347b9c9a6e264e0f77f7d8b502c8c5ec21eca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527704014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"53a22dbab619912a0508c7ebd7347b9c9a6e264e0f77f7d8b502c8c5ec21eca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539026154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"53a22dbab619912a0508c7ebd7347b9c9a6e264e0f77f7d8b502c8c5ec21eca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553285701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513936952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514576431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516393998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521839825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"56cc71b68cc4e427db897229aa641d7ae27e86df817f95c53c42529332b22b25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514634679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"56cc71b68cc4e427db897229aa641d7ae27e86df817f95c53c42529332b22b25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515087915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"56cc71b68cc4e427db897229aa641d7ae27e86df817f95c53c42529332b22b25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516062509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"56cc71b68cc4e427db897229aa641d7ae27e86df817f95c53c42529332b22b25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517007354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"57b6a2c4204ad2968e7545f1c576c8c13e9b34e95c36e7672c7d30cb0318da7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4290725399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"57b6a2c4204ad2968e7545f1c576c8c13e9b34e95c36e7672c7d30cb0318da7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3938736587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"57b6a2c4204ad2968e7545f1c576c8c13e9b34e95c36e7672c7d30cb0318da7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654995607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"57b6a2c4204ad2968e7545f1c576c8c13e9b34e95c36e7672c7d30cb0318da7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513550103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140639031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245286704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493646809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825748753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5e92a41e03347de58db9ebbb5fc5972867c6b42d457adde9f667ed534ff11721","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519354284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5e92a41e03347de58db9ebbb5fc5972867c6b42d457adde9f667ed534ff11721","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521916698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5e92a41e03347de58db9ebbb5fc5972867c6b42d457adde9f667ed534ff11721","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525668079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5e92a41e03347de58db9ebbb5fc5972867c6b42d457adde9f667ed534ff11721","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531710888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5fac76773cb65a80b04b7dd463d25d31b951b35205e0a2b253b5b130dc06a193","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060647286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5fac76773cb65a80b04b7dd463d25d31b951b35205e0a2b253b5b130dc06a193","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2096183657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5fac76773cb65a80b04b7dd463d25d31b951b35205e0a2b253b5b130dc06a193","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236975696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5fac76773cb65a80b04b7dd463d25d31b951b35205e0a2b253b5b130dc06a193","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276596348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"605b2bbb61dba23dfc154d6cdd25223b72329a403c501221391a42e362ed8839","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276418714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"605b2bbb61dba23dfc154d6cdd25223b72329a403c501221391a42e362ed8839","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310277138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"605b2bbb61dba23dfc154d6cdd25223b72329a403c501221391a42e362ed8839","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334525867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"605b2bbb61dba23dfc154d6cdd25223b72329a403c501221391a42e362ed8839","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757046437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"62e2cd569275a850242faf89865fcf46ad6faca62bfdbcc83deec4800c47bc1f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521812706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"62e2cd569275a850242faf89865fcf46ad6faca62bfdbcc83deec4800c47bc1f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532370366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"62e2cd569275a850242faf89865fcf46ad6faca62bfdbcc83deec4800c47bc1f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055269822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"62e2cd569275a850242faf89865fcf46ad6faca62bfdbcc83deec4800c47bc1f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583921728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"630a227b8c9a22cd96905d71fe573664967324396b0367f11dddcc9dc53b4228","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516882363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"630a227b8c9a22cd96905d71fe573664967324396b0367f11dddcc9dc53b4228","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523291699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"630a227b8c9a22cd96905d71fe573664967324396b0367f11dddcc9dc53b4228","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535496766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"630a227b8c9a22cd96905d71fe573664967324396b0367f11dddcc9dc53b4228","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555391134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646468739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065241205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066466216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690710332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"79f3e0697d0811093fb8a16a596b4f60311d4780121cc01f3eb50e414360c31e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.779715194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"79f3e0697d0811093fb8a16a596b4f60311d4780121cc01f3eb50e414360c31e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7506205188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"79f3e0697d0811093fb8a16a596b4f60311d4780121cc01f3eb50e414360c31e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395681923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"79f3e0697d0811093fb8a16a596b4f60311d4780121cc01f3eb50e414360c31e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340393681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"85eff6afad240d20fc89ccfbf3c0b1773616fbb83a6bf384f4ddf05e64d1d29c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521137233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"85eff6afad240d20fc89ccfbf3c0b1773616fbb83a6bf384f4ddf05e64d1d29c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521924248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"85eff6afad240d20fc89ccfbf3c0b1773616fbb83a6bf384f4ddf05e64d1d29c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523873221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"85eff6afad240d20fc89ccfbf3c0b1773616fbb83a6bf384f4ddf05e64d1d29c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526666177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"881adedbc4180ec5b42d7e3fcd356d2d67b4aebae171a9355827b73bc4b3cb41","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515309418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"881adedbc4180ec5b42d7e3fcd356d2d67b4aebae171a9355827b73bc4b3cb41","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518001827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"881adedbc4180ec5b42d7e3fcd356d2d67b4aebae171a9355827b73bc4b3cb41","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524082634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"881adedbc4180ec5b42d7e3fcd356d2d67b4aebae171a9355827b73bc4b3cb41","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536669854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"89b78a7a03ad8ee34ca6daa227bc3a617fff08e71c8f2112b872d2b73d0fe0eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537811619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"89b78a7a03ad8ee34ca6daa227bc3a617fff08e71c8f2112b872d2b73d0fe0eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601293601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"89b78a7a03ad8ee34ca6daa227bc3a617fff08e71c8f2112b872d2b73d0fe0eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735524834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"89b78a7a03ad8ee34ca6daa227bc3a617fff08e71c8f2112b872d2b73d0fe0eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926863252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640154564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064359783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652749039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666333108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8abb89035e5c2ceec47fc96eed55dcb0df21982201df008039c17814d3d3e291","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051100205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8abb89035e5c2ceec47fc96eed55dcb0df21982201df008039c17814d3d3e291","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511004192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8abb89035e5c2ceec47fc96eed55dcb0df21982201df008039c17814d3d3e291","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511265582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8abb89035e5c2ceec47fc96eed55dcb0df21982201df008039c17814d3d3e291","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511632304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a4586e1506c85c6e237b152e42fd793e8d3e0b787a6efc307f8b8f343b366ce9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778361546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a4586e1506c85c6e237b152e42fd793e8d3e0b787a6efc307f8b8f343b366ce9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7893878865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a4586e1506c85c6e237b152e42fd793e8d3e0b787a6efc307f8b8f343b366ce9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7674795829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a4586e1506c85c6e237b152e42fd793e8d3e0b787a6efc307f8b8f343b366ce9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978205194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520951754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527614037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539178194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556727171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"ae285b3ca766934d79d56f51488bcb3c05c304e7a7326c4d19e7f55d6c094d62","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788964209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"ae285b3ca766934d79d56f51488bcb3c05c304e7a7326c4d19e7f55d6c094d62","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667872558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"ae285b3ca766934d79d56f51488bcb3c05c304e7a7326c4d19e7f55d6c094d62","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665061773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"ae285b3ca766934d79d56f51488bcb3c05c304e7a7326c4d19e7f55d6c094d62","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690741456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"aec0cd2acb5e18ac569ef9e71c5c53597288c5b94748521392ef63ee6ed2b4ac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576705966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"aec0cd2acb5e18ac569ef9e71c5c53597288c5b94748521392ef63ee6ed2b4ac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572744207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"aec0cd2acb5e18ac569ef9e71c5c53597288c5b94748521392ef63ee6ed2b4ac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055314583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"aec0cd2acb5e18ac569ef9e71c5c53597288c5b94748521392ef63ee6ed2b4ac","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557360571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b01c3a8bdae44371f5917c6baffaef2b11e7977c1994d979d64f227f778c0f5e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518711005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b01c3a8bdae44371f5917c6baffaef2b11e7977c1994d979d64f227f778c0f5e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536205364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b01c3a8bdae44371f5917c6baffaef2b11e7977c1994d979d64f227f778c0f5e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056669698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b01c3a8bdae44371f5917c6baffaef2b11e7977c1994d979d64f227f778c0f5e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607562975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b036b17c2b1b41097b241de55470381e25628027a379475d6348e1c0403c9b06","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528002504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b036b17c2b1b41097b241de55470381e25628027a379475d6348e1c0403c9b06","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551634753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b036b17c2b1b41097b241de55470381e25628027a379475d6348e1c0403c9b06","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601842657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b036b17c2b1b41097b241de55470381e25628027a379475d6348e1c0403c9b06","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067001249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b0f0ae742679c116beee145bba48a18b8fd0aecadea1270e1348ec28e51e9520","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856416565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b0f0ae742679c116beee145bba48a18b8fd0aecadea1270e1348ec28e51e9520","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909773369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b0f0ae742679c116beee145bba48a18b8fd0aecadea1270e1348ec28e51e9520","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000257993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b0f0ae742679c116beee145bba48a18b8fd0aecadea1270e1348ec28e51e9520","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083239355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b3b4a39eaa66758e33a89a5c2cf5ee94a969bd5b28c02c43484f878e0e245aa9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656596067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b3b4a39eaa66758e33a89a5c2cf5ee94a969bd5b28c02c43484f878e0e245aa9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658137038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b3b4a39eaa66758e33a89a5c2cf5ee94a969bd5b28c02c43484f878e0e245aa9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681175341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b3b4a39eaa66758e33a89a5c2cf5ee94a969bd5b28c02c43484f878e0e245aa9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712755382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8192493998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125736482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125105524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7146731615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c687506c847563d6d6fca34fb0ab2e248e35e1fbb725ba164fea6bee22a828b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746254192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c687506c847563d6d6fca34fb0ab2e248e35e1fbb725ba164fea6bee22a828b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724468384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c687506c847563d6d6fca34fb0ab2e248e35e1fbb725ba164fea6bee22a828b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729225733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c687506c847563d6d6fca34fb0ab2e248e35e1fbb725ba164fea6bee22a828b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737219979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c8d909eb021c83582a7aaaca7c25270a44fa1d97459c4886bdd3981a5feda69f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6483968182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c8d909eb021c83582a7aaaca7c25270a44fa1d97459c4886bdd3981a5feda69f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6472868535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c8d909eb021c83582a7aaaca7c25270a44fa1d97459c4886bdd3981a5feda69f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539162863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c8d909eb021c83582a7aaaca7c25270a44fa1d97459c4886bdd3981a5feda69f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660721499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c929237ba08d3349ac630ca780bbb275f8c3376c0d064edcd142e494cf0ef266","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511774946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c929237ba08d3349ac630ca780bbb275f8c3376c0d064edcd142e494cf0ef266","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662241663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c929237ba08d3349ac630ca780bbb275f8c3376c0d064edcd142e494cf0ef266","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814636819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c929237ba08d3349ac630ca780bbb275f8c3376c0d064edcd142e494cf0ef266","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4545881788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524558739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537358832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559410506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058651327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529471458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533913317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541179586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554689156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4937285147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6950025367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001497953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240887884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4555972549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6641203252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054569724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157540737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041829328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989230343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4611188022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4393666923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6633795419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021922645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.138464458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4810798031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7310729402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824785571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312215148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904521973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7105701169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025437848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332712541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818509491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5749156018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207343398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373524332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4630308028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6892968576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748408177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1692626543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4545585597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6682708479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008304453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420715501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.464657378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7113485671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827027054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911104394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5089318956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7059006882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7676438585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217936863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.192375378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7328378841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734535014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218803127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211424122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6788778603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212679094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933722608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4727285873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7422362431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8298659573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964081143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3997145039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6533945637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937386039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1567826452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4490691776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6413057936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1703224458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174689171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4292326677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6562647681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103078369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434880726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211655022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111626453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060194909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953591358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4656367385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7086806804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909419775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339819199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4615518413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7236762342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8231980607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1470769772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4086530907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6545170406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099951471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502085499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4328600737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7069770601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779848176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11584395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4150203211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6372741304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425857655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049589185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4921373741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7183806341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762598078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283946423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4541264873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7001600543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7873096414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520614266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4330379702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.646011694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7477085451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142580848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4397331681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6756703295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070884613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192903504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4465162036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6723148079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104412766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295484705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4047839134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6359609635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7508690737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211387939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4233267634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298635383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146578221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125410467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.368509934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5838650883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306895968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978331933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4121961902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6797607712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031028249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003480728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.463220533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6900642437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104094692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373395706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4522634243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1365318389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248134614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631247449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4545209459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960332557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917466806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173362133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4865825521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027841561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799321325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960475464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609404777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4664917106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5670571277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663215834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3924312147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375786269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339662486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883152947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2017447659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112594635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4891996595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416558987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803601276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1880552011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3807577436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4230976264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483409591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333433579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4738350117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520516534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113796392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899754382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676840668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768297316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152236094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035202745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4136503237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933732144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715109087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348183433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5643417116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382239198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1417228739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795250935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817322434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1947947214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1507298249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4453694644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232559035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285499884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1759711246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3783941508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.51087077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1573161782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7305292074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4044183235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998970267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221491571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516080219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3845508008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339682181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087409302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816852492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642454505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987244841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337718151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690293559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4073067447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047808986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494421413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3995797125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4534000521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145317674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996480121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132042106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947648604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917348273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345140781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877055673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152469405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025567823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928225541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933677541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869603561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094903684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951303448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848846133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767391752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930471035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277502119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542934105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386280257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862657974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451956935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507203321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155379274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387081279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1890500517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644751509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376062526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089327651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308205487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245886189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3922071928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033382321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937361816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892239955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851024021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784301546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914467845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276407776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726146936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025857372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818909107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476743204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442354134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957692226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896578562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308783717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882892735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136380777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972551799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889393066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836640985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315504679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969478273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104455736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272339155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026171729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126489657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300508788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3427099799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775237195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499135406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189071197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1947368918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939921601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073019958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360458662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714971789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3776373124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721479549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017764365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278983122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306993209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124319655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316476043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232363235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097347998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148373796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471325564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1826093497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7469069268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6680759248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1718021791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2028204469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411282765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648232571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624200986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338017657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364692549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376709498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940699682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3388111331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650439165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369332929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085819043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884358876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067956238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047671558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720492178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029929524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538484239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4023650887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658830373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813482268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109704068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1486858063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374277021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644452143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079944531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973924942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966661271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327371145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294155814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218065082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325133319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752171174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286873575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830575391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422571483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552756431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964849111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996624903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932555534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407701464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526062382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545481107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825447095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611666778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727246875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899183781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080499297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161750653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485573796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984586527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5011066079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106905179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104932599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239263874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458638259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1562429059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848490548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4954048222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379151434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2074757796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785000524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1589665965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6050056802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2063554161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5323135676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4608414635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834621437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692272948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259292855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527196234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415172309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4100385548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674082614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957733415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305506406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4216873842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.237285161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518429928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4566996813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629000131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12598785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049357645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469821946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211644391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922145304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1885243535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202523508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241753525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131924624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1454009996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5435730524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541197283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4304018345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3632001305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960884774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962414221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966168251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974415444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214323688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1372768152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.181515409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222668342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534085831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570541332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647109343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826978501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697689611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835285237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080177452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5639232534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962235211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964144166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973793964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992214753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961849719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962195783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965036832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971714525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085680777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086138263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108842169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968181512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962783184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967339039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000149496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126400983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865652479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963549165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519666774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671177435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085593605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085915775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087059364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090166765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960684781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961240804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963677916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968903759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016457978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051061378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136990647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309966648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913535749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955477916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059000626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125421092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853534657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6883092995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1397067379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179399292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522726172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544996964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618007143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799285881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960647267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961209264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963672411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970924445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962047207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963188296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968365007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982841047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754856549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937426897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1318344156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818390556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960585884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960753254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961772361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964333385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962101206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096322017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966730059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979647648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973060857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941227369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089685278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8270891381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987630894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984784985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013904059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088927174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795785255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7047443619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260489357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1579001251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086875745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09628967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967946645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986357935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085680907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086548935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089568479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1096235947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962047727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962793004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965737216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973598345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037579806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195173797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1486564535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848853018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087580717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089310662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10975569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112053317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225573331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6505554996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5544785536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4616715036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131375825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337419275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684708236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110694695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960696755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961044761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963324732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970101076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960585269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960589769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961317761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962259756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1548075099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406417093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440166014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1542312765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653403518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693339749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833985278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120276178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538296177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593474423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729546098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965304104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029179074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035878861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113467572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232672605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750850426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758900165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813535928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898495728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142289988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162780407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193726843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242612789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164224781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287670857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1748606205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322487963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941244369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059528109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300870437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707897555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962357698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968020518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995093157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066840876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087029745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963036719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966223856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972581998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862584869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125176022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1518432036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104516459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960699255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961569728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965392106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976210262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965686607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971860001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998337699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066402435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962571191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965351102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983758017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103685433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910650042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732904869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498449414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3899496866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836925908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412809778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444928006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235828069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866573665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356805377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600854491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3879162199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131359949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635926976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840317455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2048323074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893822997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291997389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583027849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459571645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131914262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364550775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3708674928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214609646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286476549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442346036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745076215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4101142312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078505223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305587655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258147016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723543388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089084168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192235332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746106705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544909432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885012785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701517551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613320641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3928720883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123772074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764453015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531413661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3911901605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153897969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711021951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480631664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275203678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943368677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342034185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570762632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314717092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877298628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331037052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547212017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353660283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903000563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327880504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588243165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430136996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917766867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275870221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432836204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626731014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127604836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297063302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475424461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250773418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838530072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646117073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427787536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213058129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174095309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382135365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462640238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256091849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950873447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788831205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592152049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405485813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893705263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715124662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486360605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238845264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126284873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373458045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496868529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230410537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312228837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389011875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3689926393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4021106186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153331289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329311683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343338532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3608844646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169395215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451628947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3783271899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4152261849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855150267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638681313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347421323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110216875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187630577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414610401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3721605801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.409274477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289615669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686664137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466337884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248634891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118553988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738634572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550574119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367359597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969131268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32311562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642389383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652433383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187474142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416135955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750335673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211524769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175725024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266789263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712874199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184070513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944160973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771257542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261640093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495054922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130631839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322322186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522128824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323986285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182247956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664310467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671424426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239539157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122900518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710889465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497526799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299264067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857465242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341015419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534321171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361868101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849681721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338580976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663823737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3947615165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930247897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138447386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210095956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302571413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138617535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375040703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469991037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271313254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311197003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286557441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574276204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409642803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184199076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756428271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640290991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3623083234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852962532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651667415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420307609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033376283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132487611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397475403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423763137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185539921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173755624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694099945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495517912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285588914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875608883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370551713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450354651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271312789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122358335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703050791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497381795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297071095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831949343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598512608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3812338006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4166180651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918812226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726402015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501747692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23173738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871250906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672153566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473023475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3998492257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555981038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566388817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582720688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606523458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"11eae91958ce653b31439c8ae25646932702bfc3c8539c9b8aef332ec0cfc9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528282414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"11eae91958ce653b31439c8ae25646932702bfc3c8539c9b8aef332ec0cfc9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528441438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"11eae91958ce653b31439c8ae25646932702bfc3c8539c9b8aef332ec0cfc9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529589612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"11eae91958ce653b31439c8ae25646932702bfc3c8539c9b8aef332ec0cfc9f0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531240809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"126d174394bd924ac2e825033e45af82987438683a304d28323d39d124371d27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792117533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"126d174394bd924ac2e825033e45af82987438683a304d28323d39d124371d27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783996606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"126d174394bd924ac2e825033e45af82987438683a304d28323d39d124371d27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801256163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"126d174394bd924ac2e825033e45af82987438683a304d28323d39d124371d27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805748715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"17016efe277936b6eae64455c446b716f3a643da7982cee91db28f28a989f703","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714672094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"17016efe277936b6eae64455c446b716f3a643da7982cee91db28f28a989f703","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729430125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"17016efe277936b6eae64455c446b716f3a643da7982cee91db28f28a989f703","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743334183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"17016efe277936b6eae64455c446b716f3a643da7982cee91db28f28a989f703","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075695275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1c001e5c84b5fd3c4a951b618b881a55da7bcd86e1d4b1ad190dde63c243e5dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896872177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1c001e5c84b5fd3c4a951b618b881a55da7bcd86e1d4b1ad190dde63c243e5dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926774727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1c001e5c84b5fd3c4a951b618b881a55da7bcd86e1d4b1ad190dde63c243e5dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968890888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1c001e5c84b5fd3c4a951b618b881a55da7bcd86e1d4b1ad190dde63c243e5dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050265301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2058fb6621e12cd52c6646d5383504e79ec9b0d9281b28637dd6fb31e4f03cfe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570569762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2058fb6621e12cd52c6646d5383504e79ec9b0d9281b28637dd6fb31e4f03cfe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479197667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2058fb6621e12cd52c6646d5383504e79ec9b0d9281b28637dd6fb31e4f03cfe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429149258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2058fb6621e12cd52c6646d5383504e79ec9b0d9281b28637dd6fb31e4f03cfe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1375413466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664236572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071494696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904478435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204556397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657350426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661895291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669434352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678019634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4781755188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4614775996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932319689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3756375282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"30c3707c11c9a7b00631bd531a293949ae6d8741678899c0bb8572b3289bad07","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536679127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"30c3707c11c9a7b00631bd531a293949ae6d8741678899c0bb8572b3289bad07","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541662968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"30c3707c11c9a7b00631bd531a293949ae6d8741678899c0bb8572b3289bad07","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553127104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"30c3707c11c9a7b00631bd531a293949ae6d8741678899c0bb8572b3289bad07","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569021598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3572947da6aae4463525f4961072432105d4e007728a8b8b82188338845126bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150613381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3572947da6aae4463525f4961072432105d4e007728a8b8b82188338845126bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7060793244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3572947da6aae4463525f4961072432105d4e007728a8b8b82188338845126bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6717461658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3572947da6aae4463525f4961072432105d4e007728a8b8b82188338845126bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6531337074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"38d3d006730c668958c31255bad84784678db5e511365cce4155c3d49c033ade","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748553017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"38d3d006730c668958c31255bad84784678db5e511365cce4155c3d49c033ade","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638319396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"38d3d006730c668958c31255bad84784678db5e511365cce4155c3d49c033ade","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633838038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"38d3d006730c668958c31255bad84784678db5e511365cce4155c3d49c033ade","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681642019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3ab117422024cfb0fc67251b6507c362a9e24e3cf888a1e4b5985d59d7342bc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5612796772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3ab117422024cfb0fc67251b6507c362a9e24e3cf888a1e4b5985d59d7342bc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5219043288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3ab117422024cfb0fc67251b6507c362a9e24e3cf888a1e4b5985d59d7342bc2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4820005972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3ab117422024cfb0fc67251b6507c362a9e24e3cf888a1e4b5985d59d7342bc2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4575813734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784666329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788988618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800482886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788190677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"46a6ff7ba711ba6c4e3ca527ed36325943de38b17f11ab5a9ac88a30f1480a66","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655875978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"46a6ff7ba711ba6c4e3ca527ed36325943de38b17f11ab5a9ac88a30f1480a66","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656931259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"46a6ff7ba711ba6c4e3ca527ed36325943de38b17f11ab5a9ac88a30f1480a66","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658947145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"46a6ff7ba711ba6c4e3ca527ed36325943de38b17f11ab5a9ac88a30f1480a66","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662722205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710348606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764569383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789052604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866685637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"48aca886c5c07a2f09e075d993e4f1d85f5ac011bc8332301e950a1d2fa870d9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8374240994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"48aca886c5c07a2f09e075d993e4f1d85f5ac011bc8332301e950a1d2fa870d9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004903243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"48aca886c5c07a2f09e075d993e4f1d85f5ac011bc8332301e950a1d2fa870d9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098957753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"48aca886c5c07a2f09e075d993e4f1d85f5ac011bc8332301e950a1d2fa870d9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224316269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"516439b3d17ba5c317b3b0472bed91b2699a3b338877dffa9e993299f986f66f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352444696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"516439b3d17ba5c317b3b0472bed91b2699a3b338877dffa9e993299f986f66f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352186204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"516439b3d17ba5c317b3b0472bed91b2699a3b338877dffa9e993299f986f66f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1410480851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"516439b3d17ba5c317b3b0472bed91b2699a3b338877dffa9e993299f986f66f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6923201118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"60168dd6efcae0849fcf2d9a7d565579caadab90cbfaf96f7aaa8f510507957c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5849358752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"60168dd6efcae0849fcf2d9a7d565579caadab90cbfaf96f7aaa8f510507957c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6251040484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"60168dd6efcae0849fcf2d9a7d565579caadab90cbfaf96f7aaa8f510507957c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1795287619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"60168dd6efcae0849fcf2d9a7d565579caadab90cbfaf96f7aaa8f510507957c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5545768402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"6642ccffacaa1ace44fee7f618b49d54db8da5422e88829f25b17818e581cbcc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197805537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"6642ccffacaa1ace44fee7f618b49d54db8da5422e88829f25b17818e581cbcc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064559773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"6642ccffacaa1ace44fee7f618b49d54db8da5422e88829f25b17818e581cbcc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540163942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"6642ccffacaa1ace44fee7f618b49d54db8da5422e88829f25b17818e581cbcc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4546150177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"717dec8614b8f3b1cf149ebf7964569979d532b30a7185bb0a32a0807a3454dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554392563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"717dec8614b8f3b1cf149ebf7964569979d532b30a7185bb0a32a0807a3454dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570439053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"717dec8614b8f3b1cf149ebf7964569979d532b30a7185bb0a32a0807a3454dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060388799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"717dec8614b8f3b1cf149ebf7964569979d532b30a7185bb0a32a0807a3454dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621287437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231466041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090017538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116235704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278622542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775091098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077959123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780363511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785927834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"86f573c0a1a22ba888a8b01c13552e8a547d1c4b2365be22d2fb4b8a3d5f5ad7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679900074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"86f573c0a1a22ba888a8b01c13552e8a547d1c4b2365be22d2fb4b8a3d5f5ad7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699336956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"86f573c0a1a22ba888a8b01c13552e8a547d1c4b2365be22d2fb4b8a3d5f5ad7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722151231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"86f573c0a1a22ba888a8b01c13552e8a547d1c4b2365be22d2fb4b8a3d5f5ad7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766678316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6582208457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6471263484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021274936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5684976477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8c890f838064a395fd556d0a171a798e2a604d69372900325bd854f0ff1bf182","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545085984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8c890f838064a395fd556d0a171a798e2a604d69372900325bd854f0ff1bf182","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552808239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8c890f838064a395fd556d0a171a798e2a604d69372900325bd854f0ff1bf182","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566846293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8c890f838064a395fd556d0a171a798e2a604d69372900325bd854f0ff1bf182","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582244803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"9c9b1d1cfb9d8665e83e9464ad692a4560b1c6f8ff7fc00eb1e56d2b92271daf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903832486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"9c9b1d1cfb9d8665e83e9464ad692a4560b1c6f8ff7fc00eb1e56d2b92271daf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077546267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"9c9b1d1cfb9d8665e83e9464ad692a4560b1c6f8ff7fc00eb1e56d2b92271daf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774700414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"9c9b1d1cfb9d8665e83e9464ad692a4560b1c6f8ff7fc00eb1e56d2b92271daf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078063725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670249891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679224401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694741603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710106244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a7129df83838b8c27b6c3537f357e16db8318cc36348ebb25e8a9789e0a312c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654603398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a7129df83838b8c27b6c3537f357e16db8318cc36348ebb25e8a9789e0a312c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655958015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a7129df83838b8c27b6c3537f357e16db8318cc36348ebb25e8a9789e0a312c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658709758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a7129df83838b8c27b6c3537f357e16db8318cc36348ebb25e8a9789e0a312c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663094618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"aa21897e3fcb148dba1f9895e15a806de01461f8b5df910391f9dfe01245d48d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484847487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"aa21897e3fcb148dba1f9895e15a806de01461f8b5df910391f9dfe01245d48d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6573535733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"aa21897e3fcb148dba1f9895e15a806de01461f8b5df910391f9dfe01245d48d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6039902695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"aa21897e3fcb148dba1f9895e15a806de01461f8b5df910391f9dfe01245d48d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5572367557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955714807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005275231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064960834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208406274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"afbc861892ad72ca526910ca9f287c842fe68b0b17950d3e8d13e6ac4919f6ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796863801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"afbc861892ad72ca526910ca9f287c842fe68b0b17950d3e8d13e6ac4919f6ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066682381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"afbc861892ad72ca526910ca9f287c842fe68b0b17950d3e8d13e6ac4919f6ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664211978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"afbc861892ad72ca526910ca9f287c842fe68b0b17950d3e8d13e6ac4919f6ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670653773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801118721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782302819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797619332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832126735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065956172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680529554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070173738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755453172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c99962f984641559c44a3dbf67a7bc08a63d9c07659275fd56f16ab9f9fdddf3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537693104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c99962f984641559c44a3dbf67a7bc08a63d9c07659275fd56f16ab9f9fdddf3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541799494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c99962f984641559c44a3dbf67a7bc08a63d9c07659275fd56f16ab9f9fdddf3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549976354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c99962f984641559c44a3dbf67a7bc08a63d9c07659275fd56f16ab9f9fdddf3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560311925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977026129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056495603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154164998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1545098572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533504237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536613449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05438114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552155855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672759727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932651466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861853716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3962668724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652476966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652477696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652630917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652639871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8645595368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8435974031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019527278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039172654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530231487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531046101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533051237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535401582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e721600074095633a190332cac92768be409b095cc6656f46525e50beabdebe4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540058149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e721600074095633a190332cac92768be409b095cc6656f46525e50beabdebe4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548107808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e721600074095633a190332cac92768be409b095cc6656f46525e50beabdebe4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562280058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e721600074095633a190332cac92768be409b095cc6656f46525e50beabdebe4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587761223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e7abf9f2fd718177e40a4d0650d7369ae70b2d3db0cd8a10defba2fdd76e776c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043614138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e7abf9f2fd718177e40a4d0650d7369ae70b2d3db0cd8a10defba2fdd76e776c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054588664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e7abf9f2fd718177e40a4d0650d7369ae70b2d3db0cd8a10defba2fdd76e776c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076187477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e7abf9f2fd718177e40a4d0650d7369ae70b2d3db0cd8a10defba2fdd76e776c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115913714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e9c055c39013de86ac9095f0d66d611e263137d6cb6ae995944f99078d3c70eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051510975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e9c055c39013de86ac9095f0d66d611e263137d6cb6ae995944f99078d3c70eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239590996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e9c055c39013de86ac9095f0d66d611e263137d6cb6ae995944f99078d3c70eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5304325077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e9c055c39013de86ac9095f0d66d611e263137d6cb6ae995944f99078d3c70eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619472421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"eb4a991b0b9ea903c8685dde291165eb8f72a609e28743e624a7ec37bbacbebe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899028609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"eb4a991b0b9ea903c8685dde291165eb8f72a609e28743e624a7ec37bbacbebe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001429354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"eb4a991b0b9ea903c8685dde291165eb8f72a609e28743e624a7ec37bbacbebe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143450839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"eb4a991b0b9ea903c8685dde291165eb8f72a609e28743e624a7ec37bbacbebe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6922419643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655628865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656788434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659796713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664847552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f3b7895b2148386ee41020abf11015f2362d2f1b6773f0f078beed857fea1080","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668925428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f3b7895b2148386ee41020abf11015f2362d2f1b6773f0f078beed857fea1080","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548146887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f3b7895b2148386ee41020abf11015f2362d2f1b6773f0f078beed857fea1080","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556273005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f3b7895b2148386ee41020abf11015f2362d2f1b6773f0f078beed857fea1080","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573830451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527680049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527830248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528333442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528686686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052920187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530400947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533175365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536936246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1f9d7e8bf2c1a64c9ca98131b27841da6fba51697a8af719d0ab32349ba014","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805935113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1f9d7e8bf2c1a64c9ca98131b27841da6fba51697a8af719d0ab32349ba014","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834610336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1f9d7e8bf2c1a64c9ca98131b27841da6fba51697a8af719d0ab32349ba014","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085163806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1f9d7e8bf2c1a64c9ca98131b27841da6fba51697a8af719d0ab32349ba014","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908914899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4065815446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1764888585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6465989151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000762875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.393796951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5774611128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5851908671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875666851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337732694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469247983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054109294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1851435834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540191941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825724652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6515888065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123030988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370422694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6000703941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6212397212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934114993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4025266735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6255395845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6553286376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841467938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24600742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1542663199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7031763677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1547145507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476768607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1486297441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7288490559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697240736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537864015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498047068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7110868652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145359848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541363904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6744580296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.714586754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085110194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3942919352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6115000308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6194947767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097636365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4590498768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6006153768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6252345942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091359995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4243609794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6525587257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6634483795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839617997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001867478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5955655373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6177948307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745570986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699558875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664291783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6657133075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011662528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4348206469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1763188639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6421090578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859817355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3588343123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6100411272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6039064722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780551875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3591930509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.578241088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5504669709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826368418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418136034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5813459893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5796860421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794969416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496065343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743539264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.652233736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159357833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4052815859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5817509765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5726862646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991963154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3646178785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5561217911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5273627053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891566346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532382402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5479420511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5475970621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124908928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084576018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6551460653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6312698524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868277586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648410501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447248682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7115368509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096756393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722126371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609751414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6355792654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055561133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530410465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1907308558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.528000485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947227076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3876043896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6107685675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5860910385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811631387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028706446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6516068068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6857126718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894416255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679127524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189468496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5726912644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174079365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284915412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1736658373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775500748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335505359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887552899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009245465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5668764493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1353401665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719776445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1724539868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6289044776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964014043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557453321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145897031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5349815017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062860901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.375832522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6059752064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6870876281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136858549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528136108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2147144185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5481277397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306288088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649360471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205447938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2004130981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670409802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176825491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236723587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5522632985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065577752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825838708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732313698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133326874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100019317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4243940623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321091944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117527376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.403543741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5749690859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543440056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128351128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285781898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098939207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965532613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247489134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4008182731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477597718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395300334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742657505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670178498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4524025343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4958099387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268585931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616781664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960132379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896484402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6277438819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822582608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587494224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026312063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567248489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3900523865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1700685992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307886849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328011322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5299126242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6727580836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359107123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188025135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610543492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6613796953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345038357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409502959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253896398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4862140133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312789382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922188999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319189221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629111966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4187493697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087389801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383645969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3829589706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4310609396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527663853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202628993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844054331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559072669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956451374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294522373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3803956252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.429839559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826305716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933766358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104068662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167905686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177048692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467251753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3961043292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4453905364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977937062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216583115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571453499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471619967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106545059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282373225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544090323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515964516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558390171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217822919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1838681249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1564713988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897903884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774378453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357250779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3839632869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997970272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192696256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555699091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3915805617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303256866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966904516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223037061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963313077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998422055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045942428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050566684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036068988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016922438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092071062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253600938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442737867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083127661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037038163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010632336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986362411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810517997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947761151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200609086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1604681898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646341809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823291724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226595493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803187442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6506920878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1604025177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1877756599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191656068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102859395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284701503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399602749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650712004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059121781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822787618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481141551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600046907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910711687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055770358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271203422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782432891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101754274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923402725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899629803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294151725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014206172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178859677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335262729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765694363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183413492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276322047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511175265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655188543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799611002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4065348128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4306613708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289913952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875912849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961633277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148856344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1518486996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3580529825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520374105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.375551002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188294442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285818682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408503513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353759925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4665570484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229414668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345545493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495782903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4214914174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250107934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267376281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950942207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817579499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411594943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593672568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297901158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058075071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073149559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098541708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038484477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999239503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165964864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116642157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978801383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979261035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322359757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004441865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033652969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299611291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697239579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619215814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1977972092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000152271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122297735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285216712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756886853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600135117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399089961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170297802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943620685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917040615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608029101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3882668157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098685013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148127251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293682486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997701094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5840472238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5513498123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.508074812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4650292151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303770156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334661581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365627775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890492669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071740965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892263474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334692311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797607316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907203403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484027759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396440216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365521571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4099982298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4143831939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4559166779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4529600071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4047708447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316191002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223749159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980249107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830263316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3786578105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365126337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476428388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546688128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371610583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289344471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153884256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201913781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186133991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258406664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422308196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977528758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977990917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979189462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098077377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104015093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105277552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986015843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002779811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522558788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1779038136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188075134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269500902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977579752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978075566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979726933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983650429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979130562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980242527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983587421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990694695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232508633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233071435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1249712681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278470167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990063215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191706805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678091344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339988783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103725612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104259715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105625061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110030946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977569122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978424715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981356997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988711263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979119063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980187029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983502423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099021571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978867701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979676745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098233663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989579855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794469432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7435308339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087697291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275872533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560185879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610268787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731191944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957458751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783941073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7052399494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6206765438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1680573903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977487125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978083726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979485056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098249546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536605129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555977513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063346205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785194727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978966618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980684878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984963922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099383572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977517624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978088625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980480654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986071352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977640615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978736595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985178415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006288324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097761662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978218116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979783172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983428431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809181964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869781538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013324975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115221473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547994767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580841723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709985618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097259727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978281094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979488056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983582441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993015246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710872589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.731511216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6319393811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5400373024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630775636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659286729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753683229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092256536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163607698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1390500486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1873785124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4398154882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579382769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727029576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940612287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102955626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217105998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386650608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924083525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244991681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097761613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978220761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979792896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983018574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978767084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979773547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981676986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985926366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977517259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978224326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979966391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098408804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841917924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096946387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183857055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432899138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889666406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276554108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644042427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159526041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189957555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478459024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177375474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056847518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533553946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546082173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600532317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738104244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667324474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069922246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788169632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968763892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1474710309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1582694377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1907184062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389718724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968263908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154157999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1639042586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4505401473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113680955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202206471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1385300651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612293436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001513351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118409135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1449998595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751347547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977817104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978713076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981493987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990963186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977366378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977668314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978485713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980534148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979578048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986853817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015514906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107464483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103665214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979229684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980730271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984080915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123108986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160507797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268604361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405000025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827519506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423872646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750187111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4093712328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202038166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657073388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769775797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094808675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916103091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718853584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496113195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294105296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296805803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765780344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565529622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341211021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891362227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704361803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508484337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328433075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030522981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143816865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710721724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527686304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914621421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274885781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616082608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492679441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834071251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671808236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660825509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.394332279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291921694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308940488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260472129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376314443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182320311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681882631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246990681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992657608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903787548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733909375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539393072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346052007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833443405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261549741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356262022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.418084863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891861224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669724102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781840829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4157755399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868821096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617530394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366336027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4141821898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917383185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304117916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558146873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235630851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842843004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627145222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380252027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155529891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921427269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337607863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551452419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374685658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200043886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724537487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467367534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228949049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921540699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323437802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593482024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326251474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882911853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706761229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249725296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297065816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945819503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882555454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380724361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561914268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872908675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653811719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399652996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180079259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868646001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376856925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491906809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904339359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920394945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788411689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602702944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404635289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960366369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799762606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612785919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3710915143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864530423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668521362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449424825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216345112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825969142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649945412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242623642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226499279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886217301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716929182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530469227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352778038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142093412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739367657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532371684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897093695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931880406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277534865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561112025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930004418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882194805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355824635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593857118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436179738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907987028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778387224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527056519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426837065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876199254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736027976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534052214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927423122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740285648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534087912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342701573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865961034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700378493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590446858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365486678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807590565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543136091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.386184522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4184810364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889049611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335078377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523321282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3849400441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952833623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294147198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590377502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447988815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903024378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679230997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3717041928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181160885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885252824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687275318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494018803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275856526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857704853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405332097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3677034991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991294881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935758964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274491022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252032234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342946373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910658179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308119358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609791592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3725772613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901126801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417572793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722582238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4100914056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969829747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282897883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637494268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500891771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186853933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412430143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452459094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3980727927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962014308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307515936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581720814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415849244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888620037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720204915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503299091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295991975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903959094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748691153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549107356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380996224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624335072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634039263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977210855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655697575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"24b8ba0edfa45228c3ab6b0ff8508712d611d3300c9df35f3213538f35016917","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976908864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"24b8ba0edfa45228c3ab6b0ff8508712d611d3300c9df35f3213538f35016917","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1096955048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"24b8ba0edfa45228c3ab6b0ff8508712d611d3300c9df35f3213538f35016917","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.710596404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"24b8ba0edfa45228c3ab6b0ff8508712d611d3300c9df35f3213538f35016917","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465493334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"2957a6c81bb774fe85855ce3514e39f84944acf0265a9a6a6020ac54bc668c1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766801682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"2957a6c81bb774fe85855ce3514e39f84944acf0265a9a6a6020ac54bc668c1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3604309347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"2957a6c81bb774fe85855ce3514e39f84944acf0265a9a6a6020ac54bc668c1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429568402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"2957a6c81bb774fe85855ce3514e39f84944acf0265a9a6a6020ac54bc668c1e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3400223834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530307699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691553199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3998044331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083692734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"30e24c7adcde5a3b56d8828782f43f83f74bd14d4cb880536d4ca7a7e60c12bd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670752527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"30e24c7adcde5a3b56d8828782f43f83f74bd14d4cb880536d4ca7a7e60c12bd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669922933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"30e24c7adcde5a3b56d8828782f43f83f74bd14d4cb880536d4ca7a7e60c12bd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666930168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"30e24c7adcde5a3b56d8828782f43f83f74bd14d4cb880536d4ca7a7e60c12bd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690716812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659931025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660265555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661294397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662506358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987855516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0892513547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8032355093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943331932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.584977597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1916522997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4855300082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4575346481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"43978019f4c4313a98877a44cfcc5b67d8ff5e3b38f79b1a37020471f6faafab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682411976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"43978019f4c4313a98877a44cfcc5b67d8ff5e3b38f79b1a37020471f6faafab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709614361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"43978019f4c4313a98877a44cfcc5b67d8ff5e3b38f79b1a37020471f6faafab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702858576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"43978019f4c4313a98877a44cfcc5b67d8ff5e3b38f79b1a37020471f6faafab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747128668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713251745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756327876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818996384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891938565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54b946b5bb1f27ad718c986b0e4fe0d381ef13050e432ae3d38290fb8fc544ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136303859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54b946b5bb1f27ad718c986b0e4fe0d381ef13050e432ae3d38290fb8fc544ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1417336864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54b946b5bb1f27ad718c986b0e4fe0d381ef13050e432ae3d38290fb8fc544ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1460872981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54b946b5bb1f27ad718c986b0e4fe0d381ef13050e432ae3d38290fb8fc544ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531283242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54eecbdca7698be8d5bd3545c994aad5e0c69f603bb2eed96c83c4df5eb8801b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783796633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54eecbdca7698be8d5bd3545c994aad5e0c69f603bb2eed96c83c4df5eb8801b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659567972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54eecbdca7698be8d5bd3545c994aad5e0c69f603bb2eed96c83c4df5eb8801b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661823051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54eecbdca7698be8d5bd3545c994aad5e0c69f603bb2eed96c83c4df5eb8801b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666779807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537278364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543631638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555988749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572026254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"644ca9601121c83f70791a8496df412fc0b607bf3d49105573f9122ec5d54bee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665424771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"644ca9601121c83f70791a8496df412fc0b607bf3d49105573f9122ec5d54bee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068196876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"644ca9601121c83f70791a8496df412fc0b607bf3d49105573f9122ec5d54bee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710962863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"644ca9601121c83f70791a8496df412fc0b607bf3d49105573f9122ec5d54bee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752124135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533417472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534230966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535560544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536829483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"698466b8d63b8314526046ff2b7bc60e9f1ea54910407155ed95a8e70f373bf9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532178517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"698466b8d63b8314526046ff2b7bc60e9f1ea54910407155ed95a8e70f373bf9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532458522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"698466b8d63b8314526046ff2b7bc60e9f1ea54910407155ed95a8e70f373bf9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532768662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"698466b8d63b8314526046ff2b7bc60e9f1ea54910407155ed95a8e70f373bf9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533788555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6a95269bd94aca4747d5761b0fca1d5f60baf0ca834b8936bb1c5db934d3a461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801008956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6a95269bd94aca4747d5761b0fca1d5f60baf0ca834b8936bb1c5db934d3a461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855374728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6a95269bd94aca4747d5761b0fca1d5f60baf0ca834b8936bb1c5db934d3a461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956894001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6a95269bd94aca4747d5761b0fca1d5f60baf0ca834b8936bb1c5db934d3a461","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083008992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6bb20f2fa953ad52e9a54da9ce45747426263b23358b1fc8839ebc8c55a65c8f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896109146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6bb20f2fa953ad52e9a54da9ce45747426263b23358b1fc8839ebc8c55a65c8f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2076053426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6bb20f2fa953ad52e9a54da9ce45747426263b23358b1fc8839ebc8c55a65c8f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445291689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6bb20f2fa953ad52e9a54da9ce45747426263b23358b1fc8839ebc8c55a65c8f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857878574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783801013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784412128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785398032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786489098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7525f05236eb1b07da89692f332fa3e5a48bfd0931afb8288dee7956a049e782","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167308812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7525f05236eb1b07da89692f332fa3e5a48bfd0931afb8288dee7956a049e782","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298093655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7525f05236eb1b07da89692f332fa3e5a48bfd0931afb8288dee7956a049e782","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450306316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7525f05236eb1b07da89692f332fa3e5a48bfd0931afb8288dee7956a049e782","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1561581279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855054743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852792315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860942071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878941523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532480092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532645741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532940147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533404112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8d77f76d5b06156370549217985dc333d962677bf93f6b76d7f93574c08e0669","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538078943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8d77f76d5b06156370549217985dc333d962677bf93f6b76d7f93574c08e0669","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539644009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8d77f76d5b06156370549217985dc333d962677bf93f6b76d7f93574c08e0669","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054291616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8d77f76d5b06156370549217985dc333d962677bf93f6b76d7f93574c08e0669","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547038029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785121976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786010968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787030571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789326927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8f66b465d186abe320bf50c3ce4b36ba4eeaaaf9ed54b7b3f0e2b7c056dbb92e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792720219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8f66b465d186abe320bf50c3ce4b36ba4eeaaaf9ed54b7b3f0e2b7c056dbb92e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807812864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8f66b465d186abe320bf50c3ce4b36ba4eeaaaf9ed54b7b3f0e2b7c056dbb92e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825426305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8f66b465d186abe320bf50c3ce4b36ba4eeaaaf9ed54b7b3f0e2b7c056dbb92e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086474393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9755a3f0fb1e92417cbdd09fcfaceda69ce82071953538c25376044a45987bea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537500592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9755a3f0fb1e92417cbdd09fcfaceda69ce82071953538c25376044a45987bea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539418461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9755a3f0fb1e92417cbdd09fcfaceda69ce82071953538c25376044a45987bea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542873091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9755a3f0fb1e92417cbdd09fcfaceda69ce82071953538c25376044a45987bea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546943022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9a78c5cc2fd823b2c6d89a29890490cda7f28c4179c2b2aecc7b07466e8385b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657356538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9a78c5cc2fd823b2c6d89a29890490cda7f28c4179c2b2aecc7b07466e8385b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657364566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9a78c5cc2fd823b2c6d89a29890490cda7f28c4179c2b2aecc7b07466e8385b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065775513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9a78c5cc2fd823b2c6d89a29890490cda7f28c4179c2b2aecc7b07466e8385b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658357867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9bcb4e5af77993b2f61acdd782d86a901ddbeb1d6098e4b404408fafce177b93","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541817195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9bcb4e5af77993b2f61acdd782d86a901ddbeb1d6098e4b404408fafce177b93","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546221055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9bcb4e5af77993b2f61acdd782d86a901ddbeb1d6098e4b404408fafce177b93","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555227269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9bcb4e5af77993b2f61acdd782d86a901ddbeb1d6098e4b404408fafce177b93","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577310067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895247015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790523424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077884385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776689984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534005963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534758464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537494507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540655877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584271345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586760766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596213966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603345239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549853939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556080741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572985204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603082747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838190774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879963946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838537763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882859354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5547943065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129801717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607498533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4476627119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a71824f8c6d14811feabd3a417205fd1ecd2ffbfc3818e4b7e862b0bf32a818b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542529172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a71824f8c6d14811feabd3a417205fd1ecd2ffbfc3818e4b7e862b0bf32a818b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546933532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a71824f8c6d14811feabd3a417205fd1ecd2ffbfc3818e4b7e862b0bf32a818b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555263267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a71824f8c6d14811feabd3a417205fd1ecd2ffbfc3818e4b7e862b0bf32a818b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566713903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b135db546c0f6fa1aee79e17858ac5519f1dc40650f7be41bed07b575b591919","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056871984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b135db546c0f6fa1aee79e17858ac5519f1dc40650f7be41bed07b575b591919","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581363438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b135db546c0f6fa1aee79e17858ac5519f1dc40650f7be41bed07b575b591919","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598542892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b135db546c0f6fa1aee79e17858ac5519f1dc40650f7be41bed07b575b591919","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624661561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b4c131fd1c3447d265b8e9a1bb8d941de82c20210f1e7cfafeb3806d40ebaef6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662250926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b4c131fd1c3447d265b8e9a1bb8d941de82c20210f1e7cfafeb3806d40ebaef6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538469031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b4c131fd1c3447d265b8e9a1bb8d941de82c20210f1e7cfafeb3806d40ebaef6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540764443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b4c131fd1c3447d265b8e9a1bb8d941de82c20210f1e7cfafeb3806d40ebaef6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545088101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8441664082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885619266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004287994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104060084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"bfe28789b1fb017c39e6cac557106c6b0bbbafdfdb50e987b05992d95177cf01","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7882531355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"bfe28789b1fb017c39e6cac557106c6b0bbbafdfdb50e987b05992d95177cf01","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307569854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"bfe28789b1fb017c39e6cac557106c6b0bbbafdfdb50e987b05992d95177cf01","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7009246614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"bfe28789b1fb017c39e6cac557106c6b0bbbafdfdb50e987b05992d95177cf01","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.659160989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"cf3066302737d85cdb3d3188414916e9ce8bfd53786f1b06da0e4251f12e0dcf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532132709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"cf3066302737d85cdb3d3188414916e9ce8bfd53786f1b06da0e4251f12e0dcf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532325656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"cf3066302737d85cdb3d3188414916e9ce8bfd53786f1b06da0e4251f12e0dcf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532809686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"cf3066302737d85cdb3d3188414916e9ce8bfd53786f1b06da0e4251f12e0dcf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533739532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d04c5905c5e94ada7746da46a6c11b842a5fda81323982f5f4fa6f002b13cfc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662413361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d04c5905c5e94ada7746da46a6c11b842a5fda81323982f5f4fa6f002b13cfc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664619291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d04c5905c5e94ada7746da46a6c11b842a5fda81323982f5f4fa6f002b13cfc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669356141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d04c5905c5e94ada7746da46a6c11b842a5fda81323982f5f4fa6f002b13cfc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674684971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d9dfe7c80498053fb7ccb057a45a1471505fe274e49158cf45b9e56e996fbd98","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669999745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d9dfe7c80498053fb7ccb057a45a1471505fe274e49158cf45b9e56e996fbd98","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676860902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d9dfe7c80498053fb7ccb057a45a1471505fe274e49158cf45b9e56e996fbd98","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690799459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d9dfe7c80498053fb7ccb057a45a1471505fe274e49158cf45b9e56e996fbd98","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070901388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974641936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044460217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148227919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269408067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e14e4760acb5af34d7a6f7799283e4490f63dbb8df02a14a46c810d774b2b475","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817119444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e14e4760acb5af34d7a6f7799283e4490f63dbb8df02a14a46c810d774b2b475","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705496492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e14e4760acb5af34d7a6f7799283e4490f63dbb8df02a14a46c810d774b2b475","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730596194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e14e4760acb5af34d7a6f7799283e4490f63dbb8df02a14a46c810d774b2b475","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761607708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e23431ccb960c5a77d030e4c9f7c1e0aed45898ad4e9ed7d2784eecc22dfe4a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646547791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e23431ccb960c5a77d030e4c9f7c1e0aed45898ad4e9ed7d2784eecc22dfe4a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744494678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e23431ccb960c5a77d030e4c9f7c1e0aed45898ad4e9ed7d2784eecc22dfe4a8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963125228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e23431ccb960c5a77d030e4c9f7c1e0aed45898ad4e9ed7d2784eecc22dfe4a8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286564947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708409399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741545846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808993702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920690151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e7a52dcf3f8c21af25be5a47a717630b25be0467bfe7a8a304642719f2a74442","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708427899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e7a52dcf3f8c21af25be5a47a717630b25be0467bfe7a8a304642719f2a74442","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844787564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e7a52dcf3f8c21af25be5a47a717630b25be0467bfe7a8a304642719f2a74442","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833866411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e7a52dcf3f8c21af25be5a47a717630b25be0467bfe7a8a304642719f2a74442","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021865435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"efdcb1c990c5f8d0d0e75ab06796d795b1047aa49b9d037687b4a5bf4c028820","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1719272267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"efdcb1c990c5f8d0d0e75ab06796d795b1047aa49b9d037687b4a5bf4c028820","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7031232915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"efdcb1c990c5f8d0d0e75ab06796d795b1047aa49b9d037687b4a5bf4c028820","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6736569282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"efdcb1c990c5f8d0d0e75ab06796d795b1047aa49b9d037687b4a5bf4c028820","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540121462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"f3fa9d7314b6c62fbe0daf66dfea1d6270c06500c2a0025f16795fb0ff000160","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053206118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"f3fa9d7314b6c62fbe0daf66dfea1d6270c06500c2a0025f16795fb0ff000160","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053222303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"f3fa9d7314b6c62fbe0daf66dfea1d6270c06500c2a0025f16795fb0ff000160","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053266967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"f3fa9d7314b6c62fbe0daf66dfea1d6270c06500c2a0025f16795fb0ff000160","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053329723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"faec5cf3edbc2ff9187f2ae7f829607b0e12e3d88e381d0decae1818103ddeb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538541799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"faec5cf3edbc2ff9187f2ae7f829607b0e12e3d88e381d0decae1818103ddeb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541813195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"faec5cf3edbc2ff9187f2ae7f829607b0e12e3d88e381d0decae1818103ddeb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549655446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"faec5cf3edbc2ff9187f2ae7f829607b0e12e3d88e381d0decae1818103ddeb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564887462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567460896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069305259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5559660182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459812023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035971275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5443214939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621700155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285393036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1676616123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253115982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016973536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1935871658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4732989407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610650007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385971487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478668182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5705278766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596912948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439405201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025510298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5267220873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641249034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3273253932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258515783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4785902879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9149428584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510718519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269583265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.542597265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594463521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347463011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222750894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5484445083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625400538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536307671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236836534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436877979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585350811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904582554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995238913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4819668039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706309966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310084215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435046947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143287762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595251496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330517797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316602487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5503272902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602412769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851740677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312597573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6052477649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9554616704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314798062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1915925572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531338587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058665077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324197394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298331067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484690837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618244265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830960005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1819946196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1859660429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793612191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957523327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142542986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5625082002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589052193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331071741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199809824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.149721398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716663637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142747007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013950182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5909273031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584551336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992838879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243627417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4911599604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741252355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324664842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106982341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691352441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714911536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722932645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5988557385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572701213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3477793068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632736397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445575772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377758783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884403859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.558902373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646811857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872828082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1903238638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081718394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149483879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110989301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377849224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.183319262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111296593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554325682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902114793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405043942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616704814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275075836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179520211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5309536298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607372611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325823961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799202018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585400809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2954545015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299291677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531651869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603912721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159762198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388230437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1889567925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074331179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290562339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19522137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101913018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637549652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278302589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941862831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1990859433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633227789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599014975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780360971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.191634237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074109586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031637256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697317236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078953692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349866405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894015628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3344696175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4198294139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045885953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672170735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552698824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253679567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3332072277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223536621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3950994918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646417083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513928935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725851758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352956368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1591618825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335050477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4923296579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356612721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148905215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664838351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701051106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870428175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435891988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1865960104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203757602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627468488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584632453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756738076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777876517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559269364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109078281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923790553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825262246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733582525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234748653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540326787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349494734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053699319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475422518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688130471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314545845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144252779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1782862745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251847838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5621240735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548488409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363762493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060098779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874600295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236693041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510628325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040013072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092833629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094863613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167609236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101622379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842640806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513522314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4148099435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086478402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039759373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090536612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162766456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970412121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430423658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238531063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4346961956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019203189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335489199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420616502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4285191629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034667368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323880028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688159704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763646612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079489698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351533734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518092781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.420108804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302785906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814987427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609001848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440303972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132743589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067642294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996346775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969438297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097612382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023539667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037635402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999579505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536736448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229840544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994317263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1689906687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903485547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779290052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495535527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263070795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465614316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443596998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424907819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461404902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240672886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415862184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536400189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235245523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314596855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363727762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3594504183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.386152838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014817113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002123425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023867383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085134002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824578045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931931775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123006534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501209981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100049641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197262309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004218229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363404579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081878141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958183807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301899716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786010363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903984141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850554604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843119662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857802438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062961107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189706716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293537635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834280889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759063136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477071145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4119199901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1908315669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621798133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225900859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862384473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1549666537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587585357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713788351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781571364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888712191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357962284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.149173137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1875887348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394582624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159913865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034977987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304856493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202109596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397233698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624121695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3793055309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392001919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272476895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3784767122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.429233487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5408739489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146573468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262504823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401102561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265531272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858790258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878350808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442328362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292587922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3661923643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4175541722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1839372559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330324151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3670999967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4076107873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924233711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009921697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169696264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796743129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682435959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317171176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506022848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337207007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085395447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833862003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26311827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371884052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134185756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1683962113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1702590938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1906300204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272388074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095891531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038529606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310422218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160948649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930221048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942091851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235497285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320635763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037216511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957088483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855203324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052185766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5052319535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690410626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578252015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429359992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417532277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420917616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476002213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017507709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348080888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581084656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3858743634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023561278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978938411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226891647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991415957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405528042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299602335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094055957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287195639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546556611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206493153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1597385841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308085267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990194794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988766925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319058399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028240061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4884110518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4735566428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420161351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275738218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5148257378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4821273032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4354239391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387370909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485701456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253461985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214589564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2147611667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6225979045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5966243275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5444895504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4796116462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108150703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109258197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111417839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115590456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983543653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098490061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989552962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099842968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982002253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982592864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984198728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988267849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103838741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1289928414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1721264704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275247094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981892341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982300218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983380914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986430567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877842513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975600906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1222980542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524854944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982041216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982744689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984464134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988826496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983416163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985484597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992185384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003560022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982617683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098586808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998802668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038486407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129385629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540889437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684366376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1850094608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535930882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543965626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564674468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634486249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552152871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576867581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615966838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066183138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982192326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982901679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098475262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098945847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986903547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099026244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100189857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035174012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537698826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548687476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588354715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679218327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983142696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983852469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985337726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989312475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540266244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555114772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630261883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809093699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779176715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943011903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244529858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171026473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967706928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6880250715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904132715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083726646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002238753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279527777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5503398159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693647868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810068668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021767438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336732196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012539945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026297632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.204069607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070353612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981966719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982564215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984096771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098757705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538384304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545379581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572185729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8954897268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982041731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982599674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984378512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988779137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994802796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004824477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019569508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041936797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983406663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984256651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987423155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099687173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981942714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982359826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983616676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986979719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878454494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970388572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055735859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187727608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179232433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279591243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550420134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034254754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985495591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990292939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006672918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056918821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434173829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1619717931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132901619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4259134032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420978249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483615758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1548273202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611326198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982015717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982469793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984003409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987743275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982059221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982814997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984892736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989914451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981941844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982499492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983829019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986254192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975588906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7147042234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5986729117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5039159237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998788169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151682809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142787403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754963632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981953469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098255583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984361008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988609623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639880048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7965220882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066069456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6016476846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1651579419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1837561007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218414999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747832072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983703648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994007321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153043766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425511605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983892642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986347564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005570453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084298451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f29c6f83166a6d890c34703dbcb2c1f785937e0d9911fcab7c1c8019fb0c1023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984190633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f29c6f83166a6d890c34703dbcb2c1f785937e0d9911fcab7c1c8019fb0c1023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987715021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f29c6f83166a6d890c34703dbcb2c1f785937e0d9911fcab7c1c8019fb0c1023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100190507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f29c6f83166a6d890c34703dbcb2c1f785937e0d9911fcab7c1c8019fb0c1023","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034511533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905790625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945539362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081085053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272028983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220992597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694547124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496259599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296108094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158365614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765538509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531689395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769589142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182767171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717272998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667395915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4020761083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"C","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946154386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"C","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828932373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"C","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431961926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"C","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505251446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191966264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422080749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720580068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220726202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126864911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816795441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625278165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454574217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980622508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836744861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620321478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439176711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177009781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341482243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549044934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366561818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COIN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085816399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COIN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210112876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COIN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355460003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COIN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353177304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893149345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719206002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603448626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888728885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135302782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345046839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253291235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333284516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289145517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733086331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541829534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313246605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903032201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725417222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650297596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930570227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EQT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133749377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EQT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240447288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EQT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699728654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EQT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530045163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138816468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322758195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584005946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399605375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196235177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394241343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706275879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4024161096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131844407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813484685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675993681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493864827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920081922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802624675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425715253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657467725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909512305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271154009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500252483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295404258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912516876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754157564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574192896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394240458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212089006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410347408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464587958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4003250561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208517766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415524244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696033126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4003945823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094770798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816703771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608526665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425722721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819060582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661906178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478191876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958464223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955262608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767752678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25925496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408659841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136068419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297214254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504072434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740332711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926286115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746475599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250557575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2252145187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872425045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676285887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447667574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240257557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209866712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381313613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663775504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3967629878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928010093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356001479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627012813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926702659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920016701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733414872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622961493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321625239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156430208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339862144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521591649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337376701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886791663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717426839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595073725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904442757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950133598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280765075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640231592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491462784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313245329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275719662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643598005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463972008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207981324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708070617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473758381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264532804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183417261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747744437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549474668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383882776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906030892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761819696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538113519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349907385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217603394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670981063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747012926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4085710217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235948551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420637733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366996978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3979535086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003632265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114850668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904745384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707438103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898148434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746978698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552492527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374773432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291385859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822802086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263694714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460993787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121916137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816921061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648789952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496541874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865248223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409605563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680338616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958510121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939304442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280492917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672645503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540835463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WSM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909301161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WSM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788212346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WSM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607767188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WSM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393535602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901829145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732030377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570049958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389129788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152165177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751035386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592846181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3882268789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"03bb1ef2f37b80e18f8f439cdee2b401d0c8dd7b9ee23c174dc33de82d77e8ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632699306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"03bb1ef2f37b80e18f8f439cdee2b401d0c8dd7b9ee23c174dc33de82d77e8ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681347759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"03bb1ef2f37b80e18f8f439cdee2b401d0c8dd7b9ee23c174dc33de82d77e8ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804043859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"03bb1ef2f37b80e18f8f439cdee2b401d0c8dd7b9ee23c174dc33de82d77e8ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012487233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"055b227f00fa9402721de3d33f8ad7a0dcc1a1d03a25eea711db08742ab14a94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192189021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"055b227f00fa9402721de3d33f8ad7a0dcc1a1d03a25eea711db08742ab14a94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253648568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"055b227f00fa9402721de3d33f8ad7a0dcc1a1d03a25eea711db08742ab14a94","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459848013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"055b227f00fa9402721de3d33f8ad7a0dcc1a1d03a25eea711db08742ab14a94","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150996842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111402302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279196968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4542375029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178018398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"09c29b4250d2e7a801631722af12a39843e3765d3bc764391c8ff68e552a6166","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878473011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"09c29b4250d2e7a801631722af12a39843e3765d3bc764391c8ff68e552a6166","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1824881215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"09c29b4250d2e7a801631722af12a39843e3765d3bc764391c8ff68e552a6166","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1992434889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"09c29b4250d2e7a801631722af12a39843e3765d3bc764391c8ff68e552a6166","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213522885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659561457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664545418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673391192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661861699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663916838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666188246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669137668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674493522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534621428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533868457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534361472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534860981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"21b95fd95d946e38f2aae421de38ffde58fcab3cad92f857b64ddc306b298d41","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532071005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"21b95fd95d946e38f2aae421de38ffde58fcab3cad92f857b64ddc306b298d41","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532261638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"21b95fd95d946e38f2aae421de38ffde58fcab3cad92f857b64ddc306b298d41","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532730999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"21b95fd95d946e38f2aae421de38ffde58fcab3cad92f857b64ddc306b298d41","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533625471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"347997cc473a5e1e034565d5996ccf223641f796b49ec22a238e23563fbb4160","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849596911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"347997cc473a5e1e034565d5996ccf223641f796b49ec22a238e23563fbb4160","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900453295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"347997cc473a5e1e034565d5996ccf223641f796b49ec22a238e23563fbb4160","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095440158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"347997cc473a5e1e034565d5996ccf223641f796b49ec22a238e23563fbb4160","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016421608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570627279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583330375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595987973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631874332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945369272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008186675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075906023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161378806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa907b68f619b63ce5cd9b49cb9926a3db074421a4a14b6d2f04e10216cfa9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373646466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa907b68f619b63ce5cd9b49cb9926a3db074421a4a14b6d2f04e10216cfa9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5405628088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa907b68f619b63ce5cd9b49cb9926a3db074421a4a14b6d2f04e10216cfa9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5098701845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa907b68f619b63ce5cd9b49cb9926a3db074421a4a14b6d2f04e10216cfa9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571900164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787870873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791694252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800981457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817293438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4fb7b4d5b7f6aee1d66867aa605ca9b3a56e0117cc4795c950fed4188a8a7e1a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.772286843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4fb7b4d5b7f6aee1d66867aa605ca9b3a56e0117cc4795c950fed4188a8a7e1a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207521534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4fb7b4d5b7f6aee1d66867aa605ca9b3a56e0117cc4795c950fed4188a8a7e1a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1359714196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4fb7b4d5b7f6aee1d66867aa605ca9b3a56e0117cc4795c950fed4188a8a7e1a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511119383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"53f095ec85afa740101aa7c729e652f9cfd24dd57872898303726bc8a86a7388","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774577816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"53f095ec85afa740101aa7c729e652f9cfd24dd57872898303726bc8a86a7388","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788003994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"53f095ec85afa740101aa7c729e652f9cfd24dd57872898303726bc8a86a7388","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800340477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"53f095ec85afa740101aa7c729e652f9cfd24dd57872898303726bc8a86a7388","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792199861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102017393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242666042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049885545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975980394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085122186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904747658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967470664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056445336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6bb3a3aa40aa7a4c5d0ba9762d2e33efcb5131606b4fa3a7f6f5e1b9aa15f63f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072474938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6bb3a3aa40aa7a4c5d0ba9762d2e33efcb5131606b4fa3a7f6f5e1b9aa15f63f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076845799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6bb3a3aa40aa7a4c5d0ba9762d2e33efcb5131606b4fa3a7f6f5e1b9aa15f63f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821425807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6bb3a3aa40aa7a4c5d0ba9762d2e33efcb5131606b4fa3a7f6f5e1b9aa15f63f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938272718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6181343931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101967102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5374813068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4975375765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6f2caec49706be33cbee65b63605146e6d654da82c054c0e098ec422a89ec92b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875193598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6f2caec49706be33cbee65b63605146e6d654da82c054c0e098ec422a89ec92b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949205745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6f2caec49706be33cbee65b63605146e6d654da82c054c0e098ec422a89ec92b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023799374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6f2caec49706be33cbee65b63605146e6d654da82c054c0e098ec422a89ec92b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113386526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"72120b9fbfb12e23d2f05bde69e1fddbb4b816fef91a04fc021f138d770c4823","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8626350211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"72120b9fbfb12e23d2f05bde69e1fddbb4b816fef91a04fc021f138d770c4823","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195305047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"72120b9fbfb12e23d2f05bde69e1fddbb4b816fef91a04fc021f138d770c4823","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8293952777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"72120b9fbfb12e23d2f05bde69e1fddbb4b816fef91a04fc021f138d770c4823","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992493869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6599340144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832225676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121166992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247200534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"766f114edc027e02123f3398c14402952b326c3c4d300c88a838a317bed96edc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665584306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"766f114edc027e02123f3398c14402952b326c3c4d300c88a838a317bed96edc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701563742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"766f114edc027e02123f3398c14402952b326c3c4d300c88a838a317bed96edc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688624653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"766f114edc027e02123f3398c14402952b326c3c4d300c88a838a317bed96edc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692908642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7789e3268403020b81e95cfc7a90446448986989db02d1237afc7af42efc05c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058585768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7789e3268403020b81e95cfc7a90446448986989db02d1237afc7af42efc05c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079547602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7789e3268403020b81e95cfc7a90446448986989db02d1237afc7af42efc05c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144026052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7789e3268403020b81e95cfc7a90446448986989db02d1237afc7af42efc05c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120608108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7c7f4bb8e6b6eaaaffcf8397ba1e99c30c5ed1be3676dede2c72a20cdae104c1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580326471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7c7f4bb8e6b6eaaaffcf8397ba1e99c30c5ed1be3676dede2c72a20cdae104c1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593213061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7c7f4bb8e6b6eaaaffcf8397ba1e99c30c5ed1be3676dede2c72a20cdae104c1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615949838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7c7f4bb8e6b6eaaaffcf8397ba1e99c30c5ed1be3676dede2c72a20cdae104c1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646498867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543133653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545783569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551145898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557488697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257281452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1296810196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7355473609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6979947546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"98afd51ce16d3f7540f9ca54353dee0f9e7514db215fd5942f427e80c5111280","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666415234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"98afd51ce16d3f7540f9ca54353dee0f9e7514db215fd5942f427e80c5111280","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054903709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"98afd51ce16d3f7540f9ca54353dee0f9e7514db215fd5942f427e80c5111280","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562883525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"98afd51ce16d3f7540f9ca54353dee0f9e7514db215fd5942f427e80c5111280","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584476339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"99534e3a72fbbf93c30a5ca0c576afa799b12e57e4dd7df7d7a33a8c4be78aaa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066794882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"99534e3a72fbbf93c30a5ca0c576afa799b12e57e4dd7df7d7a33a8c4be78aaa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669425823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"99534e3a72fbbf93c30a5ca0c576afa799b12e57e4dd7df7d7a33a8c4be78aaa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672640286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"99534e3a72fbbf93c30a5ca0c576afa799b12e57e4dd7df7d7a33a8c4be78aaa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675985755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534042072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534856166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536493114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538917037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9c4b4c3da1318944ae23b47df8b8d11a14cec31426486874d38b04c97b54872c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781697595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9c4b4c3da1318944ae23b47df8b8d11a14cec31426486874d38b04c97b54872c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531758541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9c4b4c3da1318944ae23b47df8b8d11a14cec31426486874d38b04c97b54872c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531765071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9c4b4c3da1318944ae23b47df8b8d11a14cec31426486874d38b04c97b54872c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053177812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656851078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656852579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656858123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656864139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584051352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061905024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685310633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787944871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"a5b72c68c2339dc8bc81a7ef2b739560dd5228604588cb61944f8d00cc661e1f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1731914365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"a5b72c68c2339dc8bc81a7ef2b739560dd5228604588cb61944f8d00cc661e1f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830561229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"a5b72c68c2339dc8bc81a7ef2b739560dd5228604588cb61944f8d00cc661e1f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1967056891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"a5b72c68c2339dc8bc81a7ef2b739560dd5228604588cb61944f8d00cc661e1f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2165950568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ab7af7f097bd58fe0b19b5067af47418259ea6a774ee4379b05a16892a8ae3c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689298007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ab7af7f097bd58fe0b19b5067af47418259ea6a774ee4379b05a16892a8ae3c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587600739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ab7af7f097bd58fe0b19b5067af47418259ea6a774ee4379b05a16892a8ae3c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612449949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ab7af7f097bd58fe0b19b5067af47418259ea6a774ee4379b05a16892a8ae3c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656211058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ac43cd61f87f519f995adf1968358c113855c60957e12599c8744994b3964593","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3928094555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ac43cd61f87f519f995adf1968358c113855c60957e12599c8744994b3964593","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437460151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ac43cd61f87f519f995adf1968358c113855c60957e12599c8744994b3964593","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293947598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ac43cd61f87f519f995adf1968358c113855c60957e12599c8744994b3964593","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678634272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b116d87ad801f2eb66404d27cdbcf83eed05f3173fd506fc17da22254ad87536","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920243666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b116d87ad801f2eb66404d27cdbcf83eed05f3173fd506fc17da22254ad87536","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904253674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b116d87ad801f2eb66404d27cdbcf83eed05f3173fd506fc17da22254ad87536","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924785021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b116d87ad801f2eb66404d27cdbcf83eed05f3173fd506fc17da22254ad87536","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907645566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782334814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053239752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532407129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532450517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079160788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796057513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804673964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815181005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992357873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905915621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8139045201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040511343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c39d11c3fb96c753be09fabd013cebe406da61f4eb3f5f12d24b41501f749f53","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1364171054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c39d11c3fb96c753be09fabd013cebe406da61f4eb3f5f12d24b41501f749f53","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1764085842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c39d11c3fb96c753be09fabd013cebe406da61f4eb3f5f12d24b41501f749f53","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266328126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c39d11c3fb96c753be09fabd013cebe406da61f4eb3f5f12d24b41501f749f53","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480005085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c5b9aa50a8b18f5229a92dcf63f4a62607a36d7d79b94ff49e3bf42da7d47b08","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765710078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c5b9aa50a8b18f5229a92dcf63f4a62607a36d7d79b94ff49e3bf42da7d47b08","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680238295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c5b9aa50a8b18f5229a92dcf63f4a62607a36d7d79b94ff49e3bf42da7d47b08","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704798014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c5b9aa50a8b18f5229a92dcf63f4a62607a36d7d79b94ff49e3bf42da7d47b08","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922249102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c6d4bbade6c13b80b9471713e992cabe74ac23b92b41b04a33e5da56a15f6cd7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535465532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c6d4bbade6c13b80b9471713e992cabe74ac23b92b41b04a33e5da56a15f6cd7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535556419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c6d4bbade6c13b80b9471713e992cabe74ac23b92b41b04a33e5da56a15f6cd7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536858937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c6d4bbade6c13b80b9471713e992cabe74ac23b92b41b04a33e5da56a15f6cd7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538767117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672812037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683765208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699974232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720423222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1a65b6f444f2ee04ec46b2a13c431728e27a6415b24f70e61923ade44bbe7c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798256543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1a65b6f444f2ee04ec46b2a13c431728e27a6415b24f70e61923ade44bbe7c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804822834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1a65b6f444f2ee04ec46b2a13c431728e27a6415b24f70e61923ade44bbe7c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08216308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1a65b6f444f2ee04ec46b2a13c431728e27a6415b24f70e61923ade44bbe7c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845815531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1aaefde181285ed2c3764b1af19c3c50a377e9c621e6adc48e44ceba3c8d2b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06995902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1aaefde181285ed2c3764b1af19c3c50a377e9c621e6adc48e44ceba3c8d2b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705881925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1aaefde181285ed2c3764b1af19c3c50a377e9c621e6adc48e44ceba3c8d2b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9165159584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1aaefde181285ed2c3764b1af19c3c50a377e9c621e6adc48e44ceba3c8d2b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074360475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533280481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533340045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533444631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533630331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"e25d20b75343fb0c9cd67b0891dac2d5045e3485a0e79247f5c66e1fad02c66c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656442871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"e25d20b75343fb0c9cd67b0891dac2d5045e3485a0e79247f5c66e1fad02c66c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687317475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"e25d20b75343fb0c9cd67b0891dac2d5045e3485a0e79247f5c66e1fad02c66c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744627248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"e25d20b75343fb0c9cd67b0891dac2d5045e3485a0e79247f5c66e1fad02c66c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785522668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ebcb744b66dd6c20525acca405947325ba5e709434293a54618fa0f687ba5735","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6606179926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ebcb744b66dd6c20525acca405947325ba5e709434293a54618fa0f687ba5735","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1856388408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ebcb744b66dd6c20525acca405947325ba5e709434293a54618fa0f687ba5735","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5624627627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ebcb744b66dd6c20525acca405947325ba5e709434293a54618fa0f687ba5735","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121299988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"fe30e48ca357bef8e04efccce83241aa399e9c884084c833833d50b10ec56e26","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624274787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"fe30e48ca357bef8e04efccce83241aa399e9c884084c833833d50b10ec56e26","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6893190803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"fe30e48ca357bef8e04efccce83241aa399e9c884084c833833d50b10ec56e26","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1533425174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"fe30e48ca357bef8e04efccce83241aa399e9c884084c833833d50b10ec56e26","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706762165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797550556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234448391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5359218742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569201324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508698339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754913634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5018082196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913140391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535151112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803912076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4006251246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144983022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400953986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801312159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4442489595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683397694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647712195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926158191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4963322876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623649593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614456878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1835361077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5240358194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05731012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093035607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1784343763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528744232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726876812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385175634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601167372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317571025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074394577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511774577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157696929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337924639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059670045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514838141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1810561865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5269872742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581200943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394891848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681665962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1871848674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058505082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676884327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1938807788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5243589133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707896915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499000482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830323237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100527908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666600728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313721577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755313621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900152892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586254282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850069084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089353003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836279328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578951014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662783337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130901682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119529518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978796804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891577503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392493367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481356468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028403728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258709136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1710872239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1882971519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574551654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862878841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789412537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615365361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1652517389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791713144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196963442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830898454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838043279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707127653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4775956074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086334886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567187814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027654964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.528382247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082847997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181018302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574337587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301180564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814793518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658160001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304947067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1490377217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594151531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951175608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2147801145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1850365066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019886998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108602391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058033735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637411656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707483355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216370064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5630463638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069835411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277194822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313345883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180424935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071059733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344376031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3874846418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344697982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647711329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739035625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201180404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636219705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033388569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361682213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1865010134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155506184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625000051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272557328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114130215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5382071736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599102874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349658221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413341087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5578028661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436276762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159723494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905523881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5672027454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968053646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100820851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440091854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5228124971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829306056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896605821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579207748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288379849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729711085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315441541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230433242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4465520572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173775502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612413818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4479227036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089602995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747865186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3931831729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149757202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140237484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420057173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546411359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3854971079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110811247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776373611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4208376995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1903830105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879085377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354459662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793503889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.185129857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413782295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3947293945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5143354135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676760405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3273365367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551566311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518226083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898419037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282572324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4198402043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354283876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116536829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3914068605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863928382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1592668791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177059926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861875725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4187297274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190531574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002432534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364551634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.448723607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1781218568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349445687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314257653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555666917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272483791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038628992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194045219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279439162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629828151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157683445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531269535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274478735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4589815256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031796369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015304741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989781146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940637192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109184543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515224514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359345453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4432876579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022243129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029578453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078597053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196300247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624247961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3910914864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4486783904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1662534736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978719327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3359834833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367681405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4425778885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863516096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3784747811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4036994793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.43076491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303959735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874360751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687867896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396438717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571877306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742002375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303896462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923030234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318602211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733292803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556747715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339924067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136239425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299120483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518484407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377924466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366613545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421092329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612951342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1962556446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079052603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902133826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784890104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715150211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984454501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841970071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485710991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550854624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291032083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158004282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155052092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106316738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294161066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093766758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084201787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309779739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969584801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319550887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093936287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023288336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801418436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368915285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904343566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543547163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607492523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347520082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542794551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459473887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916339253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318630388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422871285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511927597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312673921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164521044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897494337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884372231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783051717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764999138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406674139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116596181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382118639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605976082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350735717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097722363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123284046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176223298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245495241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4131956936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321919329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752805029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323079413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4806133675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4741251092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4600311952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4621282953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268544457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262606976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380223805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950061802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035313624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058260313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081918197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233015286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357835731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286837248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2019932283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053781322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094998503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069564145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116469979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024443901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075434801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137647482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32122789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363883524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417973372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448879102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4463706565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4525824477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4309124772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3796400584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703691495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773239933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895542871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355193235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258130666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595018652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561096065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638338218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405350969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2232356941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404520381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645381231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814574522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493537322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898512816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292029252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6154478996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5735401957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187770427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486280136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975655594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961878573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331631478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554516403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915509618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639811877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225130531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1909551607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5770317513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5674332488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.534368777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4713894057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640100871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525333905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330298683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4630842474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129684024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644474338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423611696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258875158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623140891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548426161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456665352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384831317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814145828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289626246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406940627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960765891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4862006149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2050565651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163722022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388360749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4037205166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310105663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234617717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248082201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837773661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3829772778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527872554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211607204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3562673097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461835756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471507002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497520089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982053716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982630743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984300504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988032511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987390576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003809854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034112046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083611973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983504155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986720553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996830731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020353483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734458571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849192424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7055145155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335357164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981891247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982147373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983117897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984628269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982004212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982710265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098429637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987871766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984052137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098931497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016349611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118533863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536720357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054730602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574905643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632901299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983303671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09860091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992106946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005973691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536428866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544840099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576942078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652273684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983156851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983753617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985501091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989700958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176713738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1967368881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213833546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501861891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"57ea48993ece0fc4bc79a71f7e8074b46aba52003044da4ee4fdbad5972148f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379009801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"57ea48993ece0fc4bc79a71f7e8074b46aba52003044da4ee4fdbad5972148f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469402942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"57ea48993ece0fc4bc79a71f7e8074b46aba52003044da4ee4fdbad5972148f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561410043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"57ea48993ece0fc4bc79a71f7e8074b46aba52003044da4ee4fdbad5972148f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678715894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544066123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570800773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658155497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881953883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982008712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983410683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987996142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996970732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087361466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054199968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324173332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5214725939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982054711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982766308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984503128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988497001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533929445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537846321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551464888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585955292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982379191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984850612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995026288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014120182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982042826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982625683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984307129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987871016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542780664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05636575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618124769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784044495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681518912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780444609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092293372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6054207723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983143166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983402158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984536622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986337065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967304571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162457581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6099525532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1820753427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082604316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996787732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1361276146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924508243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538473301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557932682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620875682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802953894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537797322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549338456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591092628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721846472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982040216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982893189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984700147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988520065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986990044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099214838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018156553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1096447065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849044832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003611495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292018639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1698968592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540728229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560792092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632279319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801543939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982192206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983151691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985265729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989825459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981940725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982497255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983887544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987165173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968686846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159963102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514321282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6078776191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982046211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983611676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988787132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999521691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110637624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112105042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115506964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122398745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028399228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226080444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836961026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634035689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928140915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029488693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198743813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140682803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669345377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084957048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136338237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5369378171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148545909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126742913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1627817674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257097671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537934318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552546354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597298431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726788815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156395659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1361726132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5372948627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4249984323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982004782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098287696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985759713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992961874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982441724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098364807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985938002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990486128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981991718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982461328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983777176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987108095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668717615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988766598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6093543755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960763461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106950741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107395742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108767803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112090072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910683419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709457337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497812811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230958305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899452269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766590387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557736894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342708699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895243938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274375331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573504705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3867086702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281858455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537509873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3844969703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087776556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289387633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696890781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691381122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987998219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898349948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739894508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551883983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3811516747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884483869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734135948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638585236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3938530088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878604966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428078292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376382662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4118929073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313913095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346060095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606060346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3866209234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851532076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453214322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377671033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156700024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888786813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402716551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3658456492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.396068649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942754309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792885122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474039873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497901702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173279066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306254939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520582022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475873426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885495534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760626987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587865534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3828296192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089484974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853256398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692460922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566070341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942702606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852781671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266228797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496740772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928802169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751574631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636611152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291893289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907765677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271782363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506210816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286738499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097921414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228492813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426726857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.361627247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937067447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328069496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474479387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688657467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873372517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376926444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645094157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294913782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102357429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283972304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624540055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455256154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129623243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248921897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417826973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612696633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826146592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418126078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712741796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989430443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899811852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393589102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696544386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4013790626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894909208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703352907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681912563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.400105235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JPM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871830518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JPM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335450564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JPM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3659654692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JPM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276681145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916656203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724431387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546823499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356884197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915526753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27518919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.361601432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898153209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833124544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508580277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3882665973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4252816088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874634579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758895217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567664144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3846008855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927413196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270639263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648868389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299399364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919171069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759864492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540057252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887633086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858415498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700177669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3689270183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4019785582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057835688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932756174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288271929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782765863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123640677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800566643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264433728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251263818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831362902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539852084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3893058258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4279579327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141095958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269095605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481142493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464408148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962923529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830339541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653437927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246612749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929348057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803169699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350759332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3751249525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176391531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334893673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3605399151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887507995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141014545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808532451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510521596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490442072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934382275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775133601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568004705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399946046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895676626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349486496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586399962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843441113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868594302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666053081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3733894648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4041245167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316611459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726887475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638786889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904353404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897075517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718395464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532518355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346513667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146568652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733615573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3591097773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321625241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854767991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264373698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3801111312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4139559542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070686174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725180061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718879717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766106771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"061f9fa01e974bc5cc72bf3ba3ebfd6fca17bb2adf6b9d619c995d837131df5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786508669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"061f9fa01e974bc5cc72bf3ba3ebfd6fca17bb2adf6b9d619c995d837131df5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795024452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"061f9fa01e974bc5cc72bf3ba3ebfd6fca17bb2adf6b9d619c995d837131df5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790944414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"061f9fa01e974bc5cc72bf3ba3ebfd6fca17bb2adf6b9d619c995d837131df5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818955654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"088cc487ca78c081cefb0a5aeff38ea6cce71a14bb2ac7be65db7dc527aee78c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540477163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"088cc487ca78c081cefb0a5aeff38ea6cce71a14bb2ac7be65db7dc527aee78c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545810006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"088cc487ca78c081cefb0a5aeff38ea6cce71a14bb2ac7be65db7dc527aee78c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555022858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"088cc487ca78c081cefb0a5aeff38ea6cce71a14bb2ac7be65db7dc527aee78c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568052554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1016e4e71595527973e72a2d8ae90c087f012526ecd43ac767932afffd94d5df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199553523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1016e4e71595527973e72a2d8ae90c087f012526ecd43ac767932afffd94d5df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109681827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1016e4e71595527973e72a2d8ae90c087f012526ecd43ac767932afffd94d5df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114207979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1016e4e71595527973e72a2d8ae90c087f012526ecd43ac767932afffd94d5df","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196760505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1061061bb25116eddc7f7306852a16f8c8a68245b49856aef732fe0c1dc26091","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477096419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1061061bb25116eddc7f7306852a16f8c8a68245b49856aef732fe0c1dc26091","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699497685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1061061bb25116eddc7f7306852a16f8c8a68245b49856aef732fe0c1dc26091","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.446849851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1061061bb25116eddc7f7306852a16f8c8a68245b49856aef732fe0c1dc26091","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353717058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1091a78b4799b92f7b8ea3704705c644cf2650eeeaa70f080175af707cf3d1e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5997898848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1091a78b4799b92f7b8ea3704705c644cf2650eeeaa70f080175af707cf3d1e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5360127012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1091a78b4799b92f7b8ea3704705c644cf2650eeeaa70f080175af707cf3d1e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4708194272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1091a78b4799b92f7b8ea3704705c644cf2650eeeaa70f080175af707cf3d1e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4738790606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928792415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973390684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7656050667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332071839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748867019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752390138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079713527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855488072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922893199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659973164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660633255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066116017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"17e8ea9f39ec6d86c5a1b4303926853aef60111f842e94b1c747e7fe7fd4ce85","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840450204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"17e8ea9f39ec6d86c5a1b4303926853aef60111f842e94b1c747e7fe7fd4ce85","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868470919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"17e8ea9f39ec6d86c5a1b4303926853aef60111f842e94b1c747e7fe7fd4ce85","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876899453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"17e8ea9f39ec6d86c5a1b4303926853aef60111f842e94b1c747e7fe7fd4ce85","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916860239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831725314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817424916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854004709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870543311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1e1abe7bfd12ca1c9d9253d135bc6123c3430edabea92593d07452825b04f7e1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541672593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1e1abe7bfd12ca1c9d9253d135bc6123c3430edabea92593d07452825b04f7e1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545704733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1e1abe7bfd12ca1c9d9253d135bc6123c3430edabea92593d07452825b04f7e1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553497931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1e1abe7bfd12ca1c9d9253d135bc6123c3430edabea92593d07452825b04f7e1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567446201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1ec12e411114606e68adbef8f6fc85afe4760425d8af7b04dc6276f04ec8026e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167564365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1ec12e411114606e68adbef8f6fc85afe4760425d8af7b04dc6276f04ec8026e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178150038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1ec12e411114606e68adbef8f6fc85afe4760425d8af7b04dc6276f04ec8026e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229491872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1ec12e411114606e68adbef8f6fc85afe4760425d8af7b04dc6276f04ec8026e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270225923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"220ea7e511e67ba9d9f82ee8f0b5baf5fe5bdc5f34a5e71f6cd45934f7ed7d26","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694791145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"220ea7e511e67ba9d9f82ee8f0b5baf5fe5bdc5f34a5e71f6cd45934f7ed7d26","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709508995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"220ea7e511e67ba9d9f82ee8f0b5baf5fe5bdc5f34a5e71f6cd45934f7ed7d26","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753601489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"220ea7e511e67ba9d9f82ee8f0b5baf5fe5bdc5f34a5e71f6cd45934f7ed7d26","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784444905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"26219a3351e6deef5e6af9564c756f778c14920233b5392a1809b03972d51f2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737237522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"26219a3351e6deef5e6af9564c756f778c14920233b5392a1809b03972d51f2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604115959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"26219a3351e6deef5e6af9564c756f778c14920233b5392a1809b03972d51f2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060706163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"26219a3351e6deef5e6af9564c756f778c14920233b5392a1809b03972d51f2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622840126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"272fbf6a0ec7c2f66bac164188298c8ca870b641a38d879d56fabba34849e6d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654912771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"272fbf6a0ec7c2f66bac164188298c8ca870b641a38d879d56fabba34849e6d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661603637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"272fbf6a0ec7c2f66bac164188298c8ca870b641a38d879d56fabba34849e6d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663118705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"272fbf6a0ec7c2f66bac164188298c8ca870b641a38d879d56fabba34849e6d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065802553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533316526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534853107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537773758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541629607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"2d590d296710d26ebbf15d7c0f2d0512f4bb219b85cf99596d3c3d2de65090af","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6111622462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"2d590d296710d26ebbf15d7c0f2d0512f4bb219b85cf99596d3c3d2de65090af","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5754775244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"2d590d296710d26ebbf15d7c0f2d0512f4bb219b85cf99596d3c3d2de65090af","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257149315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"2d590d296710d26ebbf15d7c0f2d0512f4bb219b85cf99596d3c3d2de65090af","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268182419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528146006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528109712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528326279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528940837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"33c0bbd6d55f34b3d915926c3c162a021f55da71b1ce4f05c3ac107c968d2f54","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031982467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"33c0bbd6d55f34b3d915926c3c162a021f55da71b1ce4f05c3ac107c968d2f54","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8266022871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"33c0bbd6d55f34b3d915926c3c162a021f55da71b1ce4f05c3ac107c968d2f54","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840869209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"33c0bbd6d55f34b3d915926c3c162a021f55da71b1ce4f05c3ac107c968d2f54","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106416966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"35286dd484845e7ddb16a81724bdcab94c7a5a506d8eed97a049a688b95e0091","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011959699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"35286dd484845e7ddb16a81724bdcab94c7a5a506d8eed97a049a688b95e0091","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109650349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"35286dd484845e7ddb16a81724bdcab94c7a5a506d8eed97a049a688b95e0091","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1529871284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"35286dd484845e7ddb16a81724bdcab94c7a5a506d8eed97a049a688b95e0091","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1385452902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533461467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536124483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540170958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542381658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4abea952feac95b930f3a577254e2b03792097e8c95ed1e4d70cd14533c086d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538093939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4abea952feac95b930f3a577254e2b03792097e8c95ed1e4d70cd14533c086d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539257538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4abea952feac95b930f3a577254e2b03792097e8c95ed1e4d70cd14533c086d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542596962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4abea952feac95b930f3a577254e2b03792097e8c95ed1e4d70cd14533c086d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546304606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4e1bc00239683eaaec1b22f3a34e81a5762d4780307b3f0be33f3a156371dcc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079306376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4e1bc00239683eaaec1b22f3a34e81a5762d4780307b3f0be33f3a156371dcc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121464835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4e1bc00239683eaaec1b22f3a34e81a5762d4780307b3f0be33f3a156371dcc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170034706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4e1bc00239683eaaec1b22f3a34e81a5762d4780307b3f0be33f3a156371dcc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239365342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"548b165d16b8ca445d41c099a94850b85aab631346ef7bf2cc73551f78d44e2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1764505294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"548b165d16b8ca445d41c099a94850b85aab631346ef7bf2cc73551f78d44e2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841821244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"548b165d16b8ca445d41c099a94850b85aab631346ef7bf2cc73551f78d44e2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961770454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"548b165d16b8ca445d41c099a94850b85aab631346ef7bf2cc73551f78d44e2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132208749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6ab884939d068008b39a7b9ebe630f16921aa403e5062c8521c7c7ca03064634","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202241942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6ab884939d068008b39a7b9ebe630f16921aa403e5062c8521c7c7ca03064634","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074508534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6ab884939d068008b39a7b9ebe630f16921aa403e5062c8521c7c7ca03064634","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074372347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6ab884939d068008b39a7b9ebe630f16921aa403e5062c8521c7c7ca03064634","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076772342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658848924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066840643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674019016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664154395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"70c40492a9021e3b7fc8862878f00bf4baa0c9ad469deb83302910fcb80b94d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533844141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"70c40492a9021e3b7fc8862878f00bf4baa0c9ad469deb83302910fcb80b94d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539894978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"70c40492a9021e3b7fc8862878f00bf4baa0c9ad469deb83302910fcb80b94d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549613689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"70c40492a9021e3b7fc8862878f00bf4baa0c9ad469deb83302910fcb80b94d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056430572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7a463ec9cd62bb6deca4e28d4794d99ff755e6e37cc10ca1c7ebc6ae8dee303e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657764433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7a463ec9cd62bb6deca4e28d4794d99ff755e6e37cc10ca1c7ebc6ae8dee303e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655695215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7a463ec9cd62bb6deca4e28d4794d99ff755e6e37cc10ca1c7ebc6ae8dee303e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660052133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7a463ec9cd62bb6deca4e28d4794d99ff755e6e37cc10ca1c7ebc6ae8dee303e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067184271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7b337fe2202f26bf7d3070dbc2f0d0348489a08dbd571a86f2b85895e046a5fe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148241491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7b337fe2202f26bf7d3070dbc2f0d0348489a08dbd571a86f2b85895e046a5fe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5187017296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7b337fe2202f26bf7d3070dbc2f0d0348489a08dbd571a86f2b85895e046a5fe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734581482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7b337fe2202f26bf7d3070dbc2f0d0348489a08dbd571a86f2b85895e046a5fe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4206771808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"85779cc091a393ee2b1943831e785466d0640e09304b2780c0a2d3bdb577b30a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537633091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"85779cc091a393ee2b1943831e785466d0640e09304b2780c0a2d3bdb577b30a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540534015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"85779cc091a393ee2b1943831e785466d0640e09304b2780c0a2d3bdb577b30a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546393249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"85779cc091a393ee2b1943831e785466d0640e09304b2780c0a2d3bdb577b30a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553842716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"8583a121bf253d062fd008da0e47e9d66f16e1362a603a072f423bf4f0be0b1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550937562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"8583a121bf253d062fd008da0e47e9d66f16e1362a603a072f423bf4f0be0b1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553253687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"8583a121bf253d062fd008da0e47e9d66f16e1362a603a072f423bf4f0be0b1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558311786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"8583a121bf253d062fd008da0e47e9d66f16e1362a603a072f423bf4f0be0b1e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563949534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9102855bf23a8d879a68f0bd46f0f7af33645025c7e878d20e33736ea41248fe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670499893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9102855bf23a8d879a68f0bd46f0f7af33645025c7e878d20e33736ea41248fe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674820553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9102855bf23a8d879a68f0bd46f0f7af33645025c7e878d20e33736ea41248fe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677638837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9102855bf23a8d879a68f0bd46f0f7af33645025c7e878d20e33736ea41248fe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684280808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"94a2017d5fda41c80178ffce379b51ce798a0e8cb84c1b963ad6df695dd15503","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528359706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"94a2017d5fda41c80178ffce379b51ce798a0e8cb84c1b963ad6df695dd15503","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528627157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"94a2017d5fda41c80178ffce379b51ce798a0e8cb84c1b963ad6df695dd15503","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529005409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"94a2017d5fda41c80178ffce379b51ce798a0e8cb84c1b963ad6df695dd15503","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529495167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9ff71b64f474e9dbf003b5b0c5f82e730a5bae694508b2d5cb0aff623d05b055","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153042884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9ff71b64f474e9dbf003b5b0c5f82e730a5bae694508b2d5cb0aff623d05b055","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895852072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9ff71b64f474e9dbf003b5b0c5f82e730a5bae694508b2d5cb0aff623d05b055","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982150448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9ff71b64f474e9dbf003b5b0c5f82e730a5bae694508b2d5cb0aff623d05b055","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005683569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ac104740ba3b09b1bf17f92de4171dc413862436c70af22695fa07809f77f757","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530459463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ac104740ba3b09b1bf17f92de4171dc413862436c70af22695fa07809f77f757","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053163752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ac104740ba3b09b1bf17f92de4171dc413862436c70af22695fa07809f77f757","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534145762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ac104740ba3b09b1bf17f92de4171dc413862436c70af22695fa07809f77f757","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538759557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b4c4fc33dfefc6907605416dd018160b79b5c13528d59109b8a6c9adbecb0039","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067803565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b4c4fc33dfefc6907605416dd018160b79b5c13528d59109b8a6c9adbecb0039","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685884103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b4c4fc33dfefc6907605416dd018160b79b5c13528d59109b8a6c9adbecb0039","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701981065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b4c4fc33dfefc6907605416dd018160b79b5c13528d59109b8a6c9adbecb0039","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721728005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b5f2223a0eb1682992153bebfcde421ca645159fcee9ebbaf4f5f4c73d26b660","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814879833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b5f2223a0eb1682992153bebfcde421ca645159fcee9ebbaf4f5f4c73d26b660","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823934237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b5f2223a0eb1682992153bebfcde421ca645159fcee9ebbaf4f5f4c73d26b660","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842398894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b5f2223a0eb1682992153bebfcde421ca645159fcee9ebbaf4f5f4c73d26b660","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884744747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537900491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541363602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547224412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556074056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c0c4d75a19a17c2f89f7418af8d57f1b759deaa7227d6340bc7ed4bb9163e7da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659322216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c0c4d75a19a17c2f89f7418af8d57f1b759deaa7227d6340bc7ed4bb9163e7da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659324253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c0c4d75a19a17c2f89f7418af8d57f1b759deaa7227d6340bc7ed4bb9163e7da","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659489671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c0c4d75a19a17c2f89f7418af8d57f1b759deaa7227d6340bc7ed4bb9163e7da","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659509416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c6fdc907ed80ec9d8b7e1c12a992e66770a3eb7e70b8d4c9bb964b4fe03ec7d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715766681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c6fdc907ed80ec9d8b7e1c12a992e66770a3eb7e70b8d4c9bb964b4fe03ec7d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725133218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c6fdc907ed80ec9d8b7e1c12a992e66770a3eb7e70b8d4c9bb964b4fe03ec7d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077135329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c6fdc907ed80ec9d8b7e1c12a992e66770a3eb7e70b8d4c9bb964b4fe03ec7d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801803815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"cabbb65452598d17228627229bc7758dafce1fa5a26a28d85a1ceabdc420f1f2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528146001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"cabbb65452598d17228627229bc7758dafce1fa5a26a28d85a1ceabdc420f1f2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528146062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"cabbb65452598d17228627229bc7758dafce1fa5a26a28d85a1ceabdc420f1f2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528953382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"cabbb65452598d17228627229bc7758dafce1fa5a26a28d85a1ceabdc420f1f2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529478685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527936683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527939257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528114955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528157178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"dd5c0c229b308e4cb30b62fc828624a898a82edab14297da7c89dfba765c6991","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190635772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"dd5c0c229b308e4cb30b62fc828624a898a82edab14297da7c89dfba765c6991","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683453889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"dd5c0c229b308e4cb30b62fc828624a898a82edab14297da7c89dfba765c6991","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096716799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"dd5c0c229b308e4cb30b62fc828624a898a82edab14297da7c89dfba765c6991","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698107817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850038371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8596837543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904821207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969949682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f490237184136347ea95c9466c4274c4a5e822cb0617d8aef4bd71a2e5a8f4e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809731748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f490237184136347ea95c9466c4274c4a5e822cb0617d8aef4bd71a2e5a8f4e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821670766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f490237184136347ea95c9466c4274c4a5e822cb0617d8aef4bd71a2e5a8f4e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832185904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f490237184136347ea95c9466c4274c4a5e822cb0617d8aef4bd71a2e5a8f4e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828550138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527829652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527831238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527993385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528157661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fa5c459888712f0db20da33f57950bd27931c665b9fca6ba93f41b54309eb166","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537514675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fa5c459888712f0db20da33f57950bd27931c665b9fca6ba93f41b54309eb166","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538312464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fa5c459888712f0db20da33f57950bd27931c665b9fca6ba93f41b54309eb166","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542100946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fa5c459888712f0db20da33f57950bd27931c665b9fca6ba93f41b54309eb166","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054674913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540554542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544844609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551400252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560252528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528810946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529951229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532730303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537799556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044801109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434932696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776335026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565205844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277444062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728604866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820025276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554592799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463096279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228989818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206815579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104753578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739841606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260205388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800532581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568046237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761657725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342235673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798074873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556437264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197922733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557581228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820814859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060085235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603427681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776979974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886718704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607472213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332717738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002590104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962623933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589169683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976935517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611483415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917512434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607048996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184904445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163770277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337412578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072218555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262036965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086937228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070495674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055541607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019802645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766610119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757279761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549365234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689793193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150788159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724591032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579629417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315317205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624590489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784494049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560412024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688873108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321443326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850503173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562030669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816985503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499678487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840922901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587783702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668162088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377503706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115697722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094394778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884711275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317916523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747383656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558253831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695051717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254012953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699482299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055394113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258059857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215208518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845607759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687074268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804864833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275489606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754016152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567064522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140010919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860517836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927040067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588468007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183228936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568372193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780072385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551620809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919210159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511838063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860346638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590376166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596455928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160507397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773634127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587629996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621682223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158894543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858188445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059475835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324347454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291385205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837916696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609365106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008406677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334358795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806031763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579014595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291690913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420088539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781862106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573742814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721885926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454145878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797180013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550146921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010475026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469832257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771755446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561516387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142493002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715655708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126857159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117278993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351246007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275101455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.13538359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010736372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894481777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134628031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763070561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550106921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303979777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850870644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208175767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015421757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231990233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105810397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829186938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190679401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425753857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633361499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5269482378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292657431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081046407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309212547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114302443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288805307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059039126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653618915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387558419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527958741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430320656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312276461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766624497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965761853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5544483479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482116789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31321047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127113815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981720577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1672802056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629393785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014038529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437669917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179848487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152970842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257433906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736796023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894068465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817311411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306091773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211651481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070244071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928372149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885731847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5093605242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297354409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287687731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347466871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6036956878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873874824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306586307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345321687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1700462758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047004017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993900598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987728784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899951155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061075159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3332477485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703778964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083577933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995420514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321094612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447455464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4268246854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952247004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028679013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962132398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946843131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956188475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091101656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123512914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129014498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041780597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276256175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720507473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252878337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308042032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896745858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850843961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744730758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090904896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474349423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289693931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4437847992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923716805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082424115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021238651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972429811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195127264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666025325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409479548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4194643859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074325059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362822813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478608717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4107140793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315287211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329872087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577803988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3894991648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233007518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542874587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706103296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033453134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967223406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083937727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115171204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313714809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002916975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305631789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093228071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144493531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847268214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706398957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255207967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448464549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914900844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360829888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603915262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877724491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113326673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257934832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747890315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689555201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154273992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292908339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451775413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687675551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128669405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043193683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934767348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28680093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901447547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277092501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310317127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408766513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028950989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885171844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715060961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574307208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749312533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482043667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4110404615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1916883603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648041536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420705846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170460647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041782214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748086284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574256093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331627421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069627377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432240629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425754086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541056593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746009936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709251654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523795072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520384137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113781714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159478983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190682347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133955518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106739125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168640036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948320733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043010639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132826787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835523415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944437491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243894359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1683308238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417128217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431541908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.416922976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.406813477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128982846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914559818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352432415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542289803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1694479388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029526048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869702122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032554146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195572686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424595706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1870445479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993384328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224183266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510046797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020125396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124888206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899728368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869535359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680941986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385409713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087015021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2056919553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108089817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477819573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4011967035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310462955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327591343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421083544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587481906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973896283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921259953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896635687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326633737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972891436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823898669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632634004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519765315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522449283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029189598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1580410757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283423818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829166289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692607713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553249097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473148566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159713438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996763025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927118603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1974457989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436281946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3479177322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584766633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3566290314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745781629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568068619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4024011078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3942988717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680289887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369970392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445847285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6426178973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6258089995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5839834304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5202009888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1880707676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902747038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965473603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106776818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226923524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559156562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5832665484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.49790258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134454004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135089897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137149766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142895165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266037981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266619656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12689922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273736408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002898057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003535798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004768247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007048099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990443567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182414312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1613582189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4335204068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002896352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003481728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005043085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009316176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534496337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549692648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586982012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672770185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002804887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003013463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004236532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006248915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001528268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001955696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003250118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006193713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134388205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134975144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113654284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140209005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021915571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089216622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255128993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1486512256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063196711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844761325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166665811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1598185463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140952449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261105292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.540008445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.451756156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856683941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129401519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5945246806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4941102501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002792137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003219597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004499995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10076982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002792264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100322326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005123633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009319871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6785580e4c4831a5468a3d99044a87b81b89aaf3659b8e4c05032abf6d799a87","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001476682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6785580e4c4831a5468a3d99044a87b81b89aaf3659b8e4c05032abf6d799a87","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001748446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6785580e4c4831a5468a3d99044a87b81b89aaf3659b8e4c05032abf6d799a87","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002944906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6785580e4c4831a5468a3d99044a87b81b89aaf3659b8e4c05032abf6d799a87","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005656218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053095111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536231313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550616986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588611185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053852742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564070951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645316917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795706125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667559465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685294548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747045715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888439469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001645653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002247936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004005047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008269189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572962706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606477338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688025452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845726196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d2d5c43b22024f78ac4b1eb85813305f14440e53280d5a0c638f477130deba7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999734325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d2d5c43b22024f78ac4b1eb85813305f14440e53280d5a0c638f477130deba7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349782709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d2d5c43b22024f78ac4b1eb85813305f14440e53280d5a0c638f477130deba7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.555204775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d2d5c43b22024f78ac4b1eb85813305f14440e53280d5a0c638f477130deba7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4855214592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003740402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068113291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272264343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1583197468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002764249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003130674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004316464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007155583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002844255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003590258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005398271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010310003},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001529926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001812113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003039656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005246145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066322255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675901145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07608771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935128027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001525662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001950042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003229335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006019594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002845282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003432205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005156654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009764659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002897399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004646589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102685966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085543038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002856889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003027228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004785702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007929716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866327477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070578891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369929532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5455150935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834607291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090530022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031633471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168757687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002843202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003491345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005287751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010572802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054239427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566120181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623777624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733161164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917670351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498382195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5068665148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4111796049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312093815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1495539697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975763968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715445153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131648348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124488411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292669551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593079495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001540117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001810418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003038514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006033717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002791606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003062728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004102087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006689108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002844761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003433263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005702524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010670053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113512357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136390187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140465882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149930875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911708404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068582392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6384869079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5694721495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801256244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508623773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3844914877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4243656992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151833355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765684781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562471459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371495523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869015233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662890775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243079362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231803183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132043364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759743602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537632162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376105281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891757595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719521459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624653757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3896509339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174340361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354711214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362398142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3869917659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915820103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328861483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516488588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469629496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872461207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368166959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624004263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3938754248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888175657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675735218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435847926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236924585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320593823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686456948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472719255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240715171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290188924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722089301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603680421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317441541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319998539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686886324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457570774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264148443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929445526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760963783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571394686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389304731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828430806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669474271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448664778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278937421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205570245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339969001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555569702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383475587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905284721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324698749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3583102549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3841242148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868210699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450009472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3765484389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185861383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906232941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727710887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636125807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956129108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313700002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757183329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562411922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365926786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139613836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771646085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595476177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404359364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29062249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733721921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536087048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342036051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"FAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893865504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"FAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748241848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"FAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535115498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"FAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309194403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908126424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304266695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572689909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.384455909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863344534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661147622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748598961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195833054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912862185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807607847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.348996927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495438998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840657627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608598013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354787798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164054214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925941041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754937191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261272175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246964063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907207708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748173791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585442471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366028106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290319247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27504612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520975821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324848024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892844442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398199426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370186513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4042629895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858557057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743240278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507165448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292250553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165914013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731762086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523380475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329078141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316203357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791568736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616161427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453487777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918582594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363313509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3616664958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.392227037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843119789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634901119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233578106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108092888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992389584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828659111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267339785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483139648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145557275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301743945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3533867033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3773875173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288276617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386648976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655656076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260965031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872450984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714378277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467330602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244134613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884294011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806153802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461428444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250689059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844431083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640843042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734316761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4022296483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792997056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571377267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316939448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080961885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915914825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778416465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538940776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378250871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879678681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273126642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593580483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305089461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174525417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357083484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360208731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307441436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102908014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792486056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592748561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415810133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166928424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723979891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479479916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262584189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174152326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746242087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258090799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412766878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842134554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639091879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399764878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4120314307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219346667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271602124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524040104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332425087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"0190eb130973e2998ccae456049f88d6623fb1c71a0e4e922fec631c8043ef68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541507439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"0190eb130973e2998ccae456049f88d6623fb1c71a0e4e922fec631c8043ef68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547318254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"0190eb130973e2998ccae456049f88d6623fb1c71a0e4e922fec631c8043ef68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560133402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"023bc566dbac68be33a09ac94499134878864a59def5b69d2fda733998005902","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731048809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"023bc566dbac68be33a09ac94499134878864a59def5b69d2fda733998005902","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754293056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"023bc566dbac68be33a09ac94499134878864a59def5b69d2fda733998005902","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808251466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"05576cdda3e43d8377f5d866b59d2517f8254d11269d5ae52b24e1009fae4843","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953024233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"05576cdda3e43d8377f5d866b59d2517f8254d11269d5ae52b24e1009fae4843","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989714067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"05576cdda3e43d8377f5d866b59d2517f8254d11269d5ae52b24e1009fae4843","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10484377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972364044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208256546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091822247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661393033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536451059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536964833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"166288b941dfa2cb7d898c5c6d42b3562d25e5361e87c79460c66648f383cd90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667563817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"166288b941dfa2cb7d898c5c6d42b3562d25e5361e87c79460c66648f383cd90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669204445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"166288b941dfa2cb7d898c5c6d42b3562d25e5361e87c79460c66648f383cd90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673160504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"1fc9718e6e011eb37859f6f679577b743028a03486fc9badc2bd8e209bfd52b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662842107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"1fc9718e6e011eb37859f6f679577b743028a03486fc9badc2bd8e209bfd52b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663797311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"1fc9718e6e011eb37859f6f679577b743028a03486fc9badc2bd8e209bfd52b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665209542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"23afa5789cf87d1a0bf6d8305899cb9142c4dce38bb0de296cdaff6ba1e8596c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920480942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"23afa5789cf87d1a0bf6d8305899cb9142c4dce38bb0de296cdaff6ba1e8596c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926194336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"23afa5789cf87d1a0bf6d8305899cb9142c4dce38bb0de296cdaff6ba1e8596c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936544077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"242bca3d29ddabba96a8a8f5637bcccf0e80c1a563c1e6ea5cf7a1a2e20c6009","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252009642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"242bca3d29ddabba96a8a8f5637bcccf0e80c1a563c1e6ea5cf7a1a2e20c6009","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494359238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"242bca3d29ddabba96a8a8f5637bcccf0e80c1a563c1e6ea5cf7a1a2e20c6009","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446458261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789559479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079140054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797614253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308067373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081924561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457753115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2af47fce161b69d4d49e6bd100a15c3b2b38cc34898bb0e74845b9ca0f99ff36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535129538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2af47fce161b69d4d49e6bd100a15c3b2b38cc34898bb0e74845b9ca0f99ff36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053555963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2af47fce161b69d4d49e6bd100a15c3b2b38cc34898bb0e74845b9ca0f99ff36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536436873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"379b4c1e264f3517e1dc254558bade161e6f43db2fa09b6beb68fc694e21450a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065975482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"379b4c1e264f3517e1dc254558bade161e6f43db2fa09b6beb68fc694e21450a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534850681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"379b4c1e264f3517e1dc254558bade161e6f43db2fa09b6beb68fc694e21450a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535165832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786553536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538166115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542931913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"3b5ba83f2d835e354367cb27ef7f26b67ed4db5aeeae7bdabcdcbd25e7906aa0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660003607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"3b5ba83f2d835e354367cb27ef7f26b67ed4db5aeeae7bdabcdcbd25e7906aa0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660261844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"3b5ba83f2d835e354367cb27ef7f26b67ed4db5aeeae7bdabcdcbd25e7906aa0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660633097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"429af80fb7803624c9174280482661780d57ec9607e04f07b64acd7836e09d84","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485215955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"429af80fb7803624c9174280482661780d57ec9607e04f07b64acd7836e09d84","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4089278541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"429af80fb7803624c9174280482661780d57ec9607e04f07b64acd7836e09d84","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432899405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4466d2be599746035a2d4adebf7f0e0b1efc30400e7a77a48671b9a89a677765","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257233926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4466d2be599746035a2d4adebf7f0e0b1efc30400e7a77a48671b9a89a677765","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495936188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4466d2be599746035a2d4adebf7f0e0b1efc30400e7a77a48671b9a89a677765","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4380810274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4aea086e5f9bb68f5da49e8247f6500906821467b9ae152e21cb9f26e484caef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664855913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4aea086e5f9bb68f5da49e8247f6500906821467b9ae152e21cb9f26e484caef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540983354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4aea086e5f9bb68f5da49e8247f6500906821467b9ae152e21cb9f26e484caef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054339833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295675704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349316562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244785384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565357061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578559636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606931234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"73c5b09389955ec9b505cee80c1b4619a708e85c499edd95ceda3364c44c6494","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079580223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"73c5b09389955ec9b505cee80c1b4619a708e85c499edd95ceda3364c44c6494","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809269302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"73c5b09389955ec9b505cee80c1b4619a708e85c499edd95ceda3364c44c6494","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822128394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"781ac2bd844eaa20335c82864fd56dbcadc64052f5842c7ad9d76be8f8cc51a4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554655461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"781ac2bd844eaa20335c82864fd56dbcadc64052f5842c7ad9d76be8f8cc51a4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056365371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"781ac2bd844eaa20335c82864fd56dbcadc64052f5842c7ad9d76be8f8cc51a4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582147222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785652308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786402204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787494334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7cbbd2fd74733ef99b47f7402fa72e4e07b1e34143a67289b4cfe7bfc1dc2a0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042251522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7cbbd2fd74733ef99b47f7402fa72e4e07b1e34143a67289b4cfe7bfc1dc2a0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073917553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7cbbd2fd74733ef99b47f7402fa72e4e07b1e34143a67289b4cfe7bfc1dc2a0c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795876228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534846176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534850846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535113034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f95e8c3f3b95faf56c12d75bbd6e99786611f0843533064a472fa8c436d470d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537556956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f95e8c3f3b95faf56c12d75bbd6e99786611f0843533064a472fa8c436d470d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537946008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f95e8c3f3b95faf56c12d75bbd6e99786611f0843533064a472fa8c436d470d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539103312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"92588436e7341860876acf2472a703cb227604d1302dfbd591114a0844c8dee6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167711603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"92588436e7341860876acf2472a703cb227604d1302dfbd591114a0844c8dee6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204572931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"92588436e7341860876acf2472a703cb227604d1302dfbd591114a0844c8dee6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279058064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"93b59c6dc1a9cacc1004322b934ffb6407b27c9a23b6d92d4702c5db0e4396f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771736575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"93b59c6dc1a9cacc1004322b934ffb6407b27c9a23b6d92d4702c5db0e4396f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742275012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"93b59c6dc1a9cacc1004322b934ffb6407b27c9a23b6d92d4702c5db0e4396f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071984327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"986f8445ffb15ef64918a02c423b550eb199c6576e6371369e6b6c089c76314e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560718703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"986f8445ffb15ef64918a02c423b550eb199c6576e6371369e6b6c089c76314e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573579794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"986f8445ffb15ef64918a02c423b550eb199c6576e6371369e6b6c089c76314e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9368760721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9a87eea9a86ffb332bb548a138f6ea3119e2497ce1488231c3c7794a6c37eea3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678841683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9a87eea9a86ffb332bb548a138f6ea3119e2497ce1488231c3c7794a6c37eea3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682743089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9a87eea9a86ffb332bb548a138f6ea3119e2497ce1488231c3c7794a6c37eea3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694652036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538495979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053910499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541197114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9b15d6c3f547d32fc4a0c2945a425d9c5c4627697271790821565ede2400df39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556842836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9b15d6c3f547d32fc4a0c2945a425d9c5c4627697271790821565ede2400df39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9963675937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9b15d6c3f547d32fc4a0c2945a425d9c5c4627697271790821565ede2400df39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057134287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"a4d69b6c4e9f70800545d19e4c672379f3b05bd110a45a30472dbca6c0187635","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662002029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"a4d69b6c4e9f70800545d19e4c672379f3b05bd110a45a30472dbca6c0187635","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537748603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"a4d69b6c4e9f70800545d19e4c672379f3b05bd110a45a30472dbca6c0187635","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539714496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ab22fb0470d0b76500e83a533b7ea7d266fd8812dea7e752a61f561c09c82905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546993269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ab22fb0470d0b76500e83a533b7ea7d266fd8812dea7e752a61f561c09c82905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545033647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ab22fb0470d0b76500e83a533b7ea7d266fd8812dea7e752a61f561c09c82905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548586809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539944923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054035107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541665874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"affb330f45d0ddeeffad1c984daa3750c7a722ad40856a4e5a25668a790c7962","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622540868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"affb330f45d0ddeeffad1c984daa3750c7a722ad40856a4e5a25668a790c7962","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643855065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"affb330f45d0ddeeffad1c984daa3750c7a722ad40856a4e5a25668a790c7962","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676509527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"b7bb61bfcef3f3492301b52353a9e3c6ef8adbc1d1f1fa9be49332e693e1ba4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147105796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"b7bb61bfcef3f3492301b52353a9e3c6ef8adbc1d1f1fa9be49332e693e1ba4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1630326397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"b7bb61bfcef3f3492301b52353a9e3c6ef8adbc1d1f1fa9be49332e693e1ba4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174632821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"c661b5839b0b2fc0d1430828f37e5688123b75f4ef7c9382ea0d061c73dcd378","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661717013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"c661b5839b0b2fc0d1430828f37e5688123b75f4ef7c9382ea0d061c73dcd378","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679232841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"c661b5839b0b2fc0d1430828f37e5688123b75f4ef7c9382ea0d061c73dcd378","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649344291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"cd45e95c756cafb484a95658b120d2e9efa6215fc3239e2a0e2523f9dc8faacb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536220197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"cd45e95c756cafb484a95658b120d2e9efa6215fc3239e2a0e2523f9dc8faacb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536511467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"cd45e95c756cafb484a95658b120d2e9efa6215fc3239e2a0e2523f9dc8faacb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537185356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683311826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718843677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073163127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d0ef740071778a8cd8bafbd03b462ba3467d3ce9ba2acdf25c6379fb811d2711","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711840538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d0ef740071778a8cd8bafbd03b462ba3467d3ce9ba2acdf25c6379fb811d2711","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424084185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d0ef740071778a8cd8bafbd03b462ba3467d3ce9ba2acdf25c6379fb811d2711","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633363533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d32c5edd9ce760224ce47a5499466da2669bdf923a3ec871d2f015042cbcdfd4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609063592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d32c5edd9ce760224ce47a5499466da2669bdf923a3ec871d2f015042cbcdfd4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272397194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d32c5edd9ce760224ce47a5499466da2669bdf923a3ec871d2f015042cbcdfd4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574382908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dc6a414ef937290e4d65a6b916ef571c8a8a4c93686414610c5f76e39d2b907e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003641124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dc6a414ef937290e4d65a6b916ef571c8a8a4c93686414610c5f76e39d2b907e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980340584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dc6a414ef937290e4d65a6b916ef571c8a8a4c93686414610c5f76e39d2b907e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966278936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dd53143c695a626b216c30499a9bc69c66da8b1b8822ba86860fa9af29251676","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621591407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dd53143c695a626b216c30499a9bc69c66da8b1b8822ba86860fa9af29251676","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3623473847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dd53143c695a626b216c30499a9bc69c66da8b1b8822ba86860fa9af29251676","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974390192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994755332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078238678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e8ddc319e13816019564dec167fa4dfefec2f2b3ab6bbd4959eda051239c8005","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329872567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e8ddc319e13816019564dec167fa4dfefec2f2b3ab6bbd4959eda051239c8005","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290524431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e8ddc319e13816019564dec167fa4dfefec2f2b3ab6bbd4959eda051239c8005","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922610125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555018509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561103316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057358692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053704626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538210163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540924832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f3bc25088c7a0aa5d788643719f4c1ad5ed2eddde7579ea005bacd2bb86b3435","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653090447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f3bc25088c7a0aa5d788643719f4c1ad5ed2eddde7579ea005bacd2bb86b3435","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661352004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f3bc25088c7a0aa5d788643719f4c1ad5ed2eddde7579ea005bacd2bb86b3435","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665160488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f4f3220042ae378be5bfdfc48b147bb93bdf7bac9e495194c6052503106bdb9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683565878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f4f3220042ae378be5bfdfc48b147bb93bdf7bac9e495194c6052503106bdb9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688598918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f4f3220042ae378be5bfdfc48b147bb93bdf7bac9e495194c6052503106bdb9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701029243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4144280216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4821802981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899848495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679100445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.431181096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5006116388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797516949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040688446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341146917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08775217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573642797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3776324196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4442082828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823091323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569965909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4404833646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5299203148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788913061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663921922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754139194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548304395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255200654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103239221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456354984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377018627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011412033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688441143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241911646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3783400407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917973214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680889883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736186733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4319790109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917435897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671002197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.416209188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.495657059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805635891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066275096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4339862162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5215977008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067460986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548154602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3793637938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392118137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894863176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668588274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014549751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502777142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087362342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923882659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549221218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2282361163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931219283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831175106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4174893829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4781970548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698043465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543267758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747013519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4490492049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093147026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933644349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3931011752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240559383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713432582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054981755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321364792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1676950487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666689335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553254945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4090132507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5038959031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873594988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686000721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887037082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4585899678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877302344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672551148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4839670757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1871615328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116649538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061680092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3831282344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4453940423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013180666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688762633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083978709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109762045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749279676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540293852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4254025942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4935824999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093151265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4425061548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5184096642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863949107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674751578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4166338591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.490514481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982671463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790986883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880942577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4844470484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947678403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793809294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4171593342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041108076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956145842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829196669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3783772505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816744044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548504091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4189228229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1648083302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082633226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672263157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4743834195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5768249761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788105104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676563526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3670447505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4634048107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754765033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650701843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728539353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4460752628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693686476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055010454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3742821785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832143748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737035098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571565858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855720625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060258997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757284455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557404808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529696281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3630643119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3737189732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803233476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000619438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178607488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344134014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917965773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112200069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180639211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327334548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302514469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927202915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5166364391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945535184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202538266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070418106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4920544763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752615316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162818647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253303546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4899528176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738080053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34109426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730780842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235105692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222028795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690341222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3967782403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407789946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272531577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585614409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773270373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4772016062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205370211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564101702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883305393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6394012349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734535178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386512149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629448183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1371742923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932628881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165529355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847863787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059533017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103385583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033002813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795878527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054680339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332866623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085660613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898910966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800762451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723940298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102891709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27880813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600627727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3901234511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061655958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753455901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437587075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164549649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065684703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266741542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723797724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649554912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203636574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262748174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371010383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4382640507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127213228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264168988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760009463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673526638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177487897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673516264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416537421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4205783988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972760783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785798399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596015218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470784051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171776799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741850037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553691353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420799598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970020085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285715789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543988658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4046607844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619487325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322857207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015107737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775139466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654030024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373333728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021636884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713520963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234230333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454612786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750828803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4095825224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564248739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152441496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1749165681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458015862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065726655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920553882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333294594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625952884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288965666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694840994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513482695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2282632305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135453966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325255251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528036018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588100747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124185852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203814244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352634169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507948917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003345974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013265942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120378721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154291448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670757296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761566893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104397554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536826263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938427137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270318845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422681947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707355116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063883565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170775141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891178818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871156187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481873425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827576517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942700646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332921437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961712975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146480479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076933242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928180394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919131233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888107399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650833333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972778333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300654085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302376796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265813951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236933482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549364218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373647508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189410868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086324417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051849373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068217875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120426787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010828534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176371682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203368255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1358388242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5923464214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350558543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266203415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208001631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157944981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190595519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984625898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904886229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756209788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253363552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329534556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30167441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577934429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827618747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491591185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067330999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671241636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738639334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300427388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006168785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968244032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305752714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104167919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293174292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704677267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617945227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929413968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923087559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298112593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425802549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017094197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143702357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908407564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283215112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969692095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317042357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769218827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568907286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625048829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753886509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856532895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900891573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319856035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263500407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491018194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727899099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236455317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972459206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165589053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303619019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732990103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449698267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279337179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4167154153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4003890383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3665198411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211160253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852577631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742722286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655338748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577868865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570378645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2481471957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429636015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490326943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907928776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057816107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041366392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993836435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087522036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348629584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415501188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690897515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947422937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289678369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201540835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696324247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254963235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284045482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362816254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514180696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178180095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1537380259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937440086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2175648195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984730755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984987477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986263426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098896477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985893213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986317974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987426414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990360596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111027215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111896688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113967637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119335446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076538011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7799517729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199948045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5693366619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042816879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105408102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091622327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160922624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110977747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986388217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987692806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990905164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825882274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8107550812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7441871971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092274805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986180334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986691823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988527849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099196525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540506845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552190474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590629252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689700103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986032819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986738796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098833112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992979488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986433676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987478158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991728627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002481161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082538329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108223299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1329766257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624136198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941455332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1247797408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6231755806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.523103738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111039715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11114962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114144631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119669561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623397711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668947263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077094652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026925884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102673976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259280998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1579258327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057593122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943129047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105573384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418863425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1748202956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684616011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812104469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101566871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451746152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552770456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566034534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9523308809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9049874858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985982315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986550672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988114122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992035498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985932692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986195683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987509642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990445048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986537672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990184572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004473722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038269023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984681766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984936383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985607712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098662248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984981722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985941317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987941768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992865091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098598432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986878022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989755055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997228578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984942858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985235239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098676981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989188633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539857366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562636142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647614941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814394639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110989717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111658195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113927638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111953702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986134185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987004658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989750085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997183454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906480712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001376696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256118598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1561358896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1534377258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429189117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455027401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1497825915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985929677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986180264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987285424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989752985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082308201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019671564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272995444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5711277871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986043688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986794679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989378202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994690908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133725608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1834325281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5257641402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4056279589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143722671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1319166594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1583508192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1824350536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542651777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055578836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610794111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758846905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101055273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039075497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1346039179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960453996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847631583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7176630403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343365825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5591380793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131456674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515160364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912747726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463130231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039125996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136972386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5952119326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.198529542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986031194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986288775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988287877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991814205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996327856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047337735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153884348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316329184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109676283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984933998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986048293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988563758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099804815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285059269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5582505977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.468276194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756334985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084018182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010426408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117207127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985943286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986537647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988521584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992891476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188555758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423672566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3700582075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177825447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750132453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572418591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ALLE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883552715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ALLE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333079565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ALLE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579464487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ALLE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838066999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914828302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711534465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244161959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219228413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836659684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414857199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3605851747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165202212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724136315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633606112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331108326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183957295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383741149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672259386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085876491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230804534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409381018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594675217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947089544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834897746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463950259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654584115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156566735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787807845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576412334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136985715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823994285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634809637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3705258142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946508618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752545013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553274252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389733693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921140928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755708721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517056462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925975236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801400768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261577724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459514084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132708865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798767065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630879054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467503028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286582412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408006296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724596331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4046075455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913248099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271841111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516588347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303955273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32023112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268424656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462684197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250468862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917937608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757449853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618511897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864475334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365618952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615465738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128254777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806491885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264573761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476019386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916887341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273223828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565087405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399734517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966982328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237457241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412945287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629010404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155286006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779021778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609413982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436195371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320403906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343525415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615939756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345537731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158616374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342308302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610155511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885593779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926149273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777324478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538505388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113912689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290107475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3588363716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838809104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122788529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252993818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347496583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247730808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140847301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801037969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604386916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432959994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315261707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794388892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607092347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896955343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724349364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249213252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159544524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721366752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731171302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210918663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727509608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530252471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333103783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911485609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758268219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585156863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400035874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163589544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762031368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350541254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3705492596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151573427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763622376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542471347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3833303301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159200221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326251504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3562514152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410392528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934132847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281627552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608615972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441528934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182385382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334088266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587756832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.385289455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961118211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809197385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645164678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504601063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223491725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26826117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465941706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251191536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193405356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440428162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3784604725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4157378707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"STX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905258443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"STX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781925041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"STX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626760088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045148903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184043738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3427355449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757677491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902016543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716471607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3695646488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4040782442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207243198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398607523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366535955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"VST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176598327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"VST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768590299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"VST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3541402752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"VST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3771938039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"WBD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092879832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"WBD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866350002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"WBD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382008959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"WBD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3553229304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119338302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062597525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099893976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502003862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503429956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502337773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503789338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506925089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798633249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797052461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240752545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"3925914cc1615760721c4a0c88f5913cdee37adea9dfb7d96127d643dcd25d5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163971845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"3925914cc1615760721c4a0c88f5913cdee37adea9dfb7d96127d643dcd25d5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252112735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"3925914cc1615760721c4a0c88f5913cdee37adea9dfb7d96127d643dcd25d5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340081685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"395a02a6c980bcefb445c203100b509005c77df155d8e83e55ebb5e702ff39c3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243197148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"395a02a6c980bcefb445c203100b509005c77df155d8e83e55ebb5e702ff39c3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1810523199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"395a02a6c980bcefb445c203100b509005c77df155d8e83e55ebb5e702ff39c3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6125649464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576964624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588448658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609715979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4702616e60cebe34795f35986ddf402e41abb78c19636d1c27274d77eee1d087","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128306871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4702616e60cebe34795f35986ddf402e41abb78c19636d1c27274d77eee1d087","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858023516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4702616e60cebe34795f35986ddf402e41abb78c19636d1c27274d77eee1d087","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977312315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05019886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504987624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510985713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677000046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680836075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688561487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4e10a3c05f70a996732f487f628cb9dc96919fd86c76bf59021c3c0e2e2b8afd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694820591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4e10a3c05f70a996732f487f628cb9dc96919fd86c76bf59021c3c0e2e2b8afd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703651695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4e10a3c05f70a996732f487f628cb9dc96919fd86c76bf59021c3c0e2e2b8afd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719414783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673397331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679614137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690281186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507737335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514393036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527950353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"6ba82a24a777f0f1b9671c1f9c5b23fafffd492c2ee37ce547bc6ed4cb6b9ebc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538978704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"6ba82a24a777f0f1b9671c1f9c5b23fafffd492c2ee37ce547bc6ed4cb6b9ebc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536094041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"6ba82a24a777f0f1b9671c1f9c5b23fafffd492c2ee37ce547bc6ed4cb6b9ebc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539335088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"72c23ee50a06b5c9d1ef531ec24753df8961997d3b62956b0280a31c4b0ab554","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029674116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"72c23ee50a06b5c9d1ef531ec24753df8961997d3b62956b0280a31c4b0ab554","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951395819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"72c23ee50a06b5c9d1ef531ec24753df8961997d3b62956b0280a31c4b0ab554","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901856263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"7922d89fec0da62c9041945b60d6b0aed454cc352970398a484e2294ee6dda46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500727596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"7922d89fec0da62c9041945b60d6b0aed454cc352970398a484e2294ee6dda46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502141108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"7922d89fec0da62c9041945b60d6b0aed454cc352970398a484e2294ee6dda46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505592582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"81daa5ae248e809e0220f6ab533ab1c210f69c854945ec1888b0f87a68982397","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504121359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"81daa5ae248e809e0220f6ab533ab1c210f69c854945ec1888b0f87a68982397","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505858817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"81daa5ae248e809e0220f6ab533ab1c210f69c854945ec1888b0f87a68982397","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509144875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"858e212927541060b0462a16825846f1d3370e65b886ea2fa69ae7b9d0747a8e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689525214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"858e212927541060b0462a16825846f1d3370e65b886ea2fa69ae7b9d0747a8e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817568822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"858e212927541060b0462a16825846f1d3370e65b886ea2fa69ae7b9d0747a8e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780583596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"866a5b402fecb18b7986e8af71a9afe6bf5c063184aa80786ea034dbbef7a512","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251003005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"866a5b402fecb18b7986e8af71a9afe6bf5c063184aa80786ea034dbbef7a512","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881497295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"866a5b402fecb18b7986e8af71a9afe6bf5c063184aa80786ea034dbbef7a512","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057683109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724957476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727240021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741334486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632545421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652850441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689804451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"88f4bdfc91c03430eb4835f2ebb2a1fab70367da6965ce5c825edcda36194bb8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316156323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"88f4bdfc91c03430eb4835f2ebb2a1fab70367da6965ce5c825edcda36194bb8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811254889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"88f4bdfc91c03430eb4835f2ebb2a1fab70367da6965ce5c825edcda36194bb8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501483158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562900975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582986618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616808403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8c78cf46f01e1f9ebf6b20b1a84836184bc3beafd8b343f0c4e2e334e6d3f1ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912098173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8c78cf46f01e1f9ebf6b20b1a84836184bc3beafd8b343f0c4e2e334e6d3f1ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097174957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8c78cf46f01e1f9ebf6b20b1a84836184bc3beafd8b343f0c4e2e334e6d3f1ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105024779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"90fbd7e4a651b7b4579a095a7e9ec9352d772d9bc865e1b53b9cf63d26444b38","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223237318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"90fbd7e4a651b7b4579a095a7e9ec9352d772d9bc865e1b53b9cf63d26444b38","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262021922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"90fbd7e4a651b7b4579a095a7e9ec9352d772d9bc865e1b53b9cf63d26444b38","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4076941734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694056322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070893501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734860722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096373079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183860195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572579269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9a910d59a8a362d4a7a1abaefcea0d9c7dfc754b16b45705bbe0782e87a35481","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508335735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9a910d59a8a362d4a7a1abaefcea0d9c7dfc754b16b45705bbe0782e87a35481","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511075455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9a910d59a8a362d4a7a1abaefcea0d9c7dfc754b16b45705bbe0782e87a35481","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516660413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516315565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526373458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545384165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500527332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500547885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500796072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a3ed691a6894bc4df158e723ec8af38d6a76bf6c1691e52dfcd0c7f45678e514","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4411668789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a3ed691a6894bc4df158e723ec8af38d6a76bf6c1691e52dfcd0c7f45678e514","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4143504743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a3ed691a6894bc4df158e723ec8af38d6a76bf6c1691e52dfcd0c7f45678e514","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578126686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a5366c3e302d9d95bb7c300127d7cfe784b1e19377165beaaf4d10251c5926ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666871425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a5366c3e302d9d95bb7c300127d7cfe784b1e19377165beaaf4d10251c5926ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447756438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a5366c3e302d9d95bb7c300127d7cfe784b1e19377165beaaf4d10251c5926ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381489326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502336473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503421652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506127817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500722977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501393466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502337486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658587261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667336884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065164699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b4524a202a4a31343ac57ba108b78fdf8d4429950b8ddce5d7ac4bcc32ad6f8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672468438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b4524a202a4a31343ac57ba108b78fdf8d4429950b8ddce5d7ac4bcc32ad6f8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680532153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b4524a202a4a31343ac57ba108b78fdf8d4429950b8ddce5d7ac4bcc32ad6f8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678434211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b63ddda26aec0213826adaef41168da6571da7967d268409774a1dc175a2ac43","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538927795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b63ddda26aec0213826adaef41168da6571da7967d268409774a1dc175a2ac43","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554508454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b63ddda26aec0213826adaef41168da6571da7967d268409774a1dc175a2ac43","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584168343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502613434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743324352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565315834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507735842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512752784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521453126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bfd10ce5aa0a9eb424cb0845571df5066963afe119873ff64e40422bd966633d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511267455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bfd10ce5aa0a9eb424cb0845571df5066963afe119873ff64e40422bd966633d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516403195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bfd10ce5aa0a9eb424cb0845571df5066963afe119873ff64e40422bd966633d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531604051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c4e0becb3fe93bd312bb9cae26fe5612219922b6e40e1abd8e772a239661bd59","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833424126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c4e0becb3fe93bd312bb9cae26fe5612219922b6e40e1abd8e772a239661bd59","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669270176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c4e0becb3fe93bd312bb9cae26fe5612219922b6e40e1abd8e772a239661bd59","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670897041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516149596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528676603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548576396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"cb737cca335d5f2a43f31c04cc8ba5dae13ec02c624688bc1cfac88764c43cb1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658351148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"cb737cca335d5f2a43f31c04cc8ba5dae13ec02c624688bc1cfac88764c43cb1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069165831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"cb737cca335d5f2a43f31c04cc8ba5dae13ec02c624688bc1cfac88764c43cb1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705829416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4643995219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.456422677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4518365277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d5a15063d443ccf76cea5539dec00008b2c8ef32ef25567d128b1b47a38b6bfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d5a15063d443ccf76cea5539dec00008b2c8ef32ef25567d128b1b47a38b6bfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616403522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d5a15063d443ccf76cea5539dec00008b2c8ef32ef25567d128b1b47a38b6bfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705982583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317712852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939797825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150871589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f08272e8551c9790027c5e9a93524507eabc78aa9ac56da6d774e76b1756a557","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697987464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f08272e8551c9790027c5e9a93524507eabc78aa9ac56da6d774e76b1756a557","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546129268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f08272e8551c9790027c5e9a93524507eabc78aa9ac56da6d774e76b1756a557","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570680428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f1eb0a74473dfd4b437cafc242f6ec4608d960b28e274a7dda1b19f2fcb23c28","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152523799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f1eb0a74473dfd4b437cafc242f6ec4608d960b28e274a7dda1b19f2fcb23c28","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192747239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f1eb0a74473dfd4b437cafc242f6ec4608d960b28e274a7dda1b19f2fcb23c28","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126898824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f551133a53c309346f0b7da41b8482e42cba39f322cb1b2aef63148868e24e94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050862089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f551133a53c309346f0b7da41b8482e42cba39f322cb1b2aef63148868e24e94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512201653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f551133a53c309346f0b7da41b8482e42cba39f322cb1b2aef63148868e24e94","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524122342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505869939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512550352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525673313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321960953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217528713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692093303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046126187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1556897938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616146391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411391736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726774848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906106898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276079288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697551329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890915112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260595452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773783333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705428032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224468103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109167993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151156371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184774272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717505639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333667722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205146475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3727987215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259405635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664321442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704079318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310892973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807878628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867014611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107507067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043026515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093229093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159541621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855450742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918122464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233119822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641823314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201622391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1781578655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885460247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316591647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1931672516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623763128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311571119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1690555655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649416577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031914086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997704509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677737548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600131007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376985114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607149499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125893726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1977131875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06400775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723962939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382335441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701415133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924990357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963766927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838113657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242337696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925354637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718261554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306641456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052772049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787706613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276984492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951390044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911652842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694087859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824592946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392580068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020768787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677602208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775598963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1584087056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596353228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330059815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.167312622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633487678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3952197615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267523233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063987153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503813028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508774908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666963388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555786451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1967755903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662222408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748972211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638285479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638205439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4002879455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478113286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583557647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238026497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136436561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679791076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3937599194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3982087828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179477709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818440351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4707999772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102493632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4171662351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322774272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530455036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668629819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1655582574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485096187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3852900732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233636891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36190085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438973842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153943906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809111316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397314483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454309304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682299765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398715659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228902601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978157316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910887144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4584610555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3407315682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4680660361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875968012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318431854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414046691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1750083536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179806319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812264894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827221645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150465327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844979506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882980107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664600266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132087074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4103686448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646518403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347623416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3869841112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964236519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29175417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787596521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454195685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898923915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634913255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307075758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095750544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661407391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818558193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949227896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861038009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720570672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875876177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585049865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358502904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166388408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397619605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478356312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937404583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037945468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973759144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204245309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699270661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604787788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158814174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688518929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458771518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001876054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138755433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357240383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216344096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647902184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454156379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675214977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072340495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099326432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016036483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107013106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820157653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121098997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058563646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008078218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140659245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381426563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521436778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935336612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305132298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182334321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041748788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923967054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901249501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698804217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863397802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230011199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024372677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942331863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886234918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145255195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1518134021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785131943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903751046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048942023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684499552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168842075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637138252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802124963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689426447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604307877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697485706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783259323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849313568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057937267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131900858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223381071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292634195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823578101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810559094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649819995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552884878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850594474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346787086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198937073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755804748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300991535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082011527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053906898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292045616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123292943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205876281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148764582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297606489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102779077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994453974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7663473135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7023690267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6239561415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1655140027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1835152099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109273714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712336234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959761278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253646997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107807332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4538273358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625032851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774973034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467745703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195721936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102082981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332303226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.361364919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190189883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413332998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2451155312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002000793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317200061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638660416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985915133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932561948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646949085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251784803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789850831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433043805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159021391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266573541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338966055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337206433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172310437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948460273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990978586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969084911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203119401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010497924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189404407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361982772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584134468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545521508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4036088664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532788679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3903372343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496761379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256493511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242015544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225493339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939212631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183331577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081101051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1575637033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078490339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330639557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101650043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102405124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104698344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812383416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960620562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248912443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099161804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118772789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.138801313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101715354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102655029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105150168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1773326713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811993358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868741757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101664065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102115989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103319293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101671369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11042445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110890345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101605392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102431107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105449398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100115273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100666836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103683614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505463953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512882724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534002763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143320722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416824168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5280468714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268339164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274896446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299730475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089140332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966661993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052021178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099067427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1345800107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854595391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025084961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216093536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101714721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102252109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104080537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674816794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697954802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749943512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101854006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102423564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110489593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101915285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102735002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110722747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518515445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574615402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741392466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101650043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102593051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104579032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891996303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7033796465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387053762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101714054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102249336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104530248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102862958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108179808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129188692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921841474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1177285913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1676113622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101668037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102417778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104621683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022805935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238464782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1986357518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100779864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110211297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106179079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518670059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553735947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681717077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101531584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102652657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106015795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1289947376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7865042694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6874918007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702316629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728840801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800882585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521796979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056183515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068042419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100248541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101332861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104591887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100331159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101931939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107133476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917776878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141564917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491444072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527581647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058616608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727393968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101314899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101518955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101883469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102517077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106073869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121517341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101731515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102333974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105210813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110004863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100471184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102479263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102480396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5665335785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4688473183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07484347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925256295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285781773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110164871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102398645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104271971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811939144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265812008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3678428289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198819142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664571976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3659371442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845103301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692183738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454552189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886994447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768919288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412062813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820690648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418396799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379548067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128003144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703630892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360727706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284610746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668100026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3642242064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854518805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772623619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618231179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871194816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729752867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357839682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119407909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206807592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646021684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128936672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32925945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534812253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126197937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249280435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351334097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244318042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257972618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771561097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273409464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507235764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3929330821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282236185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624146884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382670554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171803415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338782399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667653892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836417101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670791172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401188879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115670735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.336036288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418877534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829633163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747215852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569049558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844482901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330143927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552090882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FDS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315858644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FDS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366049022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FDS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656836737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879604793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699528134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471413778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845014053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724367322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485573146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799055216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340906932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666639756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864246503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266012072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354642622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176717695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.336900701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656936833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155153012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325686954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641660023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882004383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703551314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478395085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897485303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241550231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484298769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768557901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608096261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236778312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292701973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531934261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897973968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815137799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615613253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235129599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201219907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408582132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769772605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852574158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706893682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544167773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108537104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267675185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561196483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153954314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318046212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554563838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857788166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711170581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484336824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793231467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443607741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3792742395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862232787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683583598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431686556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831468234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701049002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562862577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860421805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299489753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550751403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866423362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269603744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425863896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831402247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691561744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466852444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820690507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638761891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736567575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791257206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602094422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235309273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904247205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750897233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563218816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846343396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367368284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651516755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289494973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765405824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626678647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799115473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441060946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805893785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837916486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661372129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624592309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"0900cdc6b82b0d8f3edc8b127bcfb5e8825c73675117766a6b6825c15bf1e313","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714866799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"0900cdc6b82b0d8f3edc8b127bcfb5e8825c73675117766a6b6825c15bf1e313","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728303488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"0900cdc6b82b0d8f3edc8b127bcfb5e8825c73675117766a6b6825c15bf1e313","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750318022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1a56771b436fcab5dc062f3452ae0187f665f8360d1b887b020934d1ae962f36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809783166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1a56771b436fcab5dc062f3452ae0187f665f8360d1b887b020934d1ae962f36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673303319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1a56771b436fcab5dc062f3452ae0187f665f8360d1b887b020934d1ae962f36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677364366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1aa2b7813366a35974ba3d8f1bd174961e5060c885fe9c485f024451705b807b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053044263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1aa2b7813366a35974ba3d8f1bd174961e5060c885fe9c485f024451705b807b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534082424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1aa2b7813366a35974ba3d8f1bd174961e5060c885fe9c485f024451705b807b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540909255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1ed503b8acda7e7392e27d1323136d655a202d32f29fff36f8b6806b5a132ffc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4091770662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1ed503b8acda7e7392e27d1323136d655a202d32f29fff36f8b6806b5a132ffc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165082245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1ed503b8acda7e7392e27d1323136d655a202d32f29fff36f8b6806b5a132ffc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3854817439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1f61ae208f3069be105c56cea6d5912f98fbc7c1031bdd485976fc43bf3d1a17","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818785809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1f61ae208f3069be105c56cea6d5912f98fbc7c1031bdd485976fc43bf3d1a17","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835130897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1f61ae208f3069be105c56cea6d5912f98fbc7c1031bdd485976fc43bf3d1a17","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820465469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665318724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668600594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674726817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2af0b2458554bb8361fff419f07cc1f95db0e543efdd4dae2660a6e77efcafaa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672746887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2af0b2458554bb8361fff419f07cc1f95db0e543efdd4dae2660a6e77efcafaa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682214073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2af0b2458554bb8361fff419f07cc1f95db0e543efdd4dae2660a6e77efcafaa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698698839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535552755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543091832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558381983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558536748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570103882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592981771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545786858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055979681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582139076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"38ff5228437fd8763271af4ca6099aacb9de90151e0fa128701ef712a5c04d5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417723873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"38ff5228437fd8763271af4ca6099aacb9de90151e0fa128701ef712a5c04d5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393348523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"38ff5228437fd8763271af4ca6099aacb9de90151e0fa128701ef712a5c04d5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872578043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526653744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529656304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536829543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"449a42d89a7e34cae0134aa10543dba701bbe44609292c8f5368c19e617ea34f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840721874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"449a42d89a7e34cae0134aa10543dba701bbe44609292c8f5368c19e617ea34f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0892046148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"449a42d89a7e34cae0134aa10543dba701bbe44609292c8f5368c19e617ea34f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911863723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"47cbb9efa562d8ebbc7187bd46c3f01af288e2536c0bd1391d04c7c0cc75cbfe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897416995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"47cbb9efa562d8ebbc7187bd46c3f01af288e2536c0bd1391d04c7c0cc75cbfe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965364235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"47cbb9efa562d8ebbc7187bd46c3f01af288e2536c0bd1391d04c7c0cc75cbfe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072591112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530817029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538946051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559459768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542441512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552992537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569007466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"51df72b9345a4f8da093d22d124ecf7fcf7602d9efbec28eddd5cc6bc988dcfd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263921481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"51df72b9345a4f8da093d22d124ecf7fcf7602d9efbec28eddd5cc6bc988dcfd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128212968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"51df72b9345a4f8da093d22d124ecf7fcf7602d9efbec28eddd5cc6bc988dcfd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314273968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"5e9a82e018096684f5ba46a6c95f12d02bae13fcabd3c0ef08ff9d60a1d4d386","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3966077712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"5e9a82e018096684f5ba46a6c95f12d02bae13fcabd3c0ef08ff9d60a1d4d386","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221088752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"5e9a82e018096684f5ba46a6c95f12d02bae13fcabd3c0ef08ff9d60a1d4d386","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4088751587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"763a7f7b7266cef17a4053d6138374b6a6c5b7df444d0e7ffd8839157ab57755","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529275912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"763a7f7b7266cef17a4053d6138374b6a6c5b7df444d0e7ffd8839157ab57755","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053009865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"763a7f7b7266cef17a4053d6138374b6a6c5b7df444d0e7ffd8839157ab57755","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532759902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"766ce1a9273e1b1e5b4229371c1e6d9a445686f0891dbe4b6e29d39d3841b0a6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515526448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"766ce1a9273e1b1e5b4229371c1e6d9a445686f0891dbe4b6e29d39d3841b0a6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1503364048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"766ce1a9273e1b1e5b4229371c1e6d9a445686f0891dbe4b6e29d39d3841b0a6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578785373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7a3596bc8f53ccdf32a1f21d21d9cb6f6ddbece50ff85e68597551ad5df64541","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846948142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7a3596bc8f53ccdf32a1f21d21d9cb6f6ddbece50ff85e68597551ad5df64541","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897836359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7a3596bc8f53ccdf32a1f21d21d9cb6f6ddbece50ff85e68597551ad5df64541","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993607971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7dc0bf3e5a6c826a6f5bf12b535b3bf2dde59b126fd97b003d377dec7e81ff63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545162629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7dc0bf3e5a6c826a6f5bf12b535b3bf2dde59b126fd97b003d377dec7e81ff63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555965196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7dc0bf3e5a6c826a6f5bf12b535b3bf2dde59b126fd97b003d377dec7e81ff63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057404645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"809a3ed782ec66c97a59aaa5b6d70cfba894c96806264c73ff7df316b620daa6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728885124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"809a3ed782ec66c97a59aaa5b6d70cfba894c96806264c73ff7df316b620daa6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568682508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"809a3ed782ec66c97a59aaa5b6d70cfba894c96806264c73ff7df316b620daa6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341347928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8815b1dc55ad459b6ad65ccdc75cab489166e5502b9b150e3b236e1244918835","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052458242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8815b1dc55ad459b6ad65ccdc75cab489166e5502b9b150e3b236e1244918835","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052535647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8815b1dc55ad459b6ad65ccdc75cab489166e5502b9b150e3b236e1244918835","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527638862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964777252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559273263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579039727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552593519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560878144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575576373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737155376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059787215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599932209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"93c4936bb09ba069554d834be7be6bd8deae96635c82deb20b0c3eaac5f26af7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4759338653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"93c4936bb09ba069554d834be7be6bd8deae96635c82deb20b0c3eaac5f26af7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.463794851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"93c4936bb09ba069554d834be7be6bd8deae96635c82deb20b0c3eaac5f26af7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303104629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9ac2b19e1f2f845a5e24ce92ef09575502b5bf3153ace71ab060599ce32b86ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006054648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9ac2b19e1f2f845a5e24ce92ef09575502b5bf3153ace71ab060599ce32b86ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989458901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9ac2b19e1f2f845a5e24ce92ef09575502b5bf3153ace71ab060599ce32b86ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101231889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a0ed9ec4cabebf77d79553928a05808906cbb7d0bcbe3117323677d50a512b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1753041331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a0ed9ec4cabebf77d79553928a05808906cbb7d0bcbe3117323677d50a512b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5182826022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a0ed9ec4cabebf77d79553928a05808906cbb7d0bcbe3117323677d50a512b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869840925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3966b601ac3d17545b4a9a614e50110eb0801d1e5eacf839caea1769d45511e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526620676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3966b601ac3d17545b4a9a614e50110eb0801d1e5eacf839caea1769d45511e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528936387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3966b601ac3d17545b4a9a614e50110eb0801d1e5eacf839caea1769d45511e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534181195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3fcfd23d4aa63846042eb149e55fad879035b1d9b4af8087a3fbe1948de6c44","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05643257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3fcfd23d4aa63846042eb149e55fad879035b1d9b4af8087a3fbe1948de6c44","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058081146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3fcfd23d4aa63846042eb149e55fad879035b1d9b4af8087a3fbe1948de6c44","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607389319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3780393214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318545848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791383698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a93a4eaa5992258d3150c5055ba00c18ff7508c1a29439ab4feeb4952551fdc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193086219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a93a4eaa5992258d3150c5055ba00c18ff7508c1a29439ab4feeb4952551fdc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075941049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a93a4eaa5992258d3150c5055ba00c18ff7508c1a29439ab4feeb4952551fdc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148261087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527541941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528490814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531068898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b1b04e5214572a74630ac8307c4be6e7c2e92abcceb3c246bebb05dd52a2ee97","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529322767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b1b04e5214572a74630ac8307c4be6e7c2e92abcceb3c246bebb05dd52a2ee97","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531733406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b1b04e5214572a74630ac8307c4be6e7c2e92abcceb3c246bebb05dd52a2ee97","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535614903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536885897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054356893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055416971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533165069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054052528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551238969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549620284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554816886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568121486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb75f827e4e1e34156e9b6baa76d39df16441e69b146bd27f34af0153bc383f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742648321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb75f827e4e1e34156e9b6baa76d39df16441e69b146bd27f34af0153bc383f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745385764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb75f827e4e1e34156e9b6baa76d39df16441e69b146bd27f34af0153bc383f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812130928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c6eb7c69db3959a8d7116525bba5ab0e772efa6f8eee5abf7d4f2ce52c53a0bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370572421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c6eb7c69db3959a8d7116525bba5ab0e772efa6f8eee5abf7d4f2ce52c53a0bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264064345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c6eb7c69db3959a8d7116525bba5ab0e772efa6f8eee5abf7d4f2ce52c53a0bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822643043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c70ccc814315f3ef10e884b1aa01255ce5edd19571787c009b71deaa0affc867","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800742928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c70ccc814315f3ef10e884b1aa01255ce5edd19571787c009b71deaa0affc867","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662693756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c70ccc814315f3ef10e884b1aa01255ce5edd19571787c009b71deaa0affc867","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664310353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8a85e04515dc23ced123bb99918b83dd959726efb25259e09b26c1461ef9523","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561204443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8a85e04515dc23ced123bb99918b83dd959726efb25259e09b26c1461ef9523","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573775705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8a85e04515dc23ced123bb99918b83dd959726efb25259e09b26c1461ef9523","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059740068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663580787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664587341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667107149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ca08f8a82942d562983e051638ccf3194252d2a5c29499bec2911edf1879d6b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939892526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ca08f8a82942d562983e051638ccf3194252d2a5c29499bec2911edf1879d6b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662162121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ca08f8a82942d562983e051638ccf3194252d2a5c29499bec2911edf1879d6b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662747644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"e05b7f0980bd857aeda7589b5f9a3bf2b9515215e01e45f1638e44102acc2d10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326640738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"e05b7f0980bd857aeda7589b5f9a3bf2b9515215e01e45f1638e44102acc2d10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407394744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"e05b7f0980bd857aeda7589b5f9a3bf2b9515215e01e45f1638e44102acc2d10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921200751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106582392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104451536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108691321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526095996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526996491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530084919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f50a1232df6cca8740c279ce80b66c89207e4c6e7b3c25f80a3a9a0351ed8700","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06833545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f50a1232df6cca8740c279ce80b66c89207e4c6e7b3c25f80a3a9a0351ed8700","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688588292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f50a1232df6cca8740c279ce80b66c89207e4c6e7b3c25f80a3a9a0351ed8700","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701401752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"fbb7d62449a13d3cb968f249443120fd3bd2bcb5e39693b08c995110ceaa27ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537111877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"fbb7d62449a13d3cb968f249443120fd3bd2bcb5e39693b08c995110ceaa27ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309899684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"fbb7d62449a13d3cb968f249443120fd3bd2bcb5e39693b08c995110ceaa27ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873664184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546157901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664576764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894194151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399049807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648189881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513882218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000479539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667333944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467537797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1817660733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643819124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4123091272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363912024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664365034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163428237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930185456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651226692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419002305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059371929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082119593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047406011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1662682494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064770835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243946913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.170123031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638191105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182925751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1913390243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675700403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3969781271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795522631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670195053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390851057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.194557755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721238822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299764783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586461836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605926165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679778015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1466322429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632316824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3487055788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751692522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646143889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445653573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1918577225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653312032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471372659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785096804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814385652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564654226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229897837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662257604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102631807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827156617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700616071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249496001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961220532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671116283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728454273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136425943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844526109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408723148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699722321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627363859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633599149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2007088554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07076612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877880596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511961821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062176256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241842199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1546357228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068715332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449183513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863548467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663623868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440841391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242664551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776354751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573681906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131032883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623448472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484322712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301000598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657480411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480976537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178408656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615590537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029531908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617183983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640079763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608677687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294414804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613971847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719999224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317521864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672575785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492439454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342938188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766730929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.42857447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4310130605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261425617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614160225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472188874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688598373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116339982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490464415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310369987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3894251348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224521873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492646072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532172107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2022302769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006144382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4066641336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099607478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550946984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807999494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777069513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754667782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818348768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4721860698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511006183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015402323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123035419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250315865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4222756687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169070578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153789691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1962346404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865494397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139648111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091548316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105052953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534563586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4376791774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1906723662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704882438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4592638056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905274271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082743227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630693534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.401035318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984510453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862604116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759326401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059668173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675136663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3938248804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039529754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980891679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921796364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289876976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898266445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3727376891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939685688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857668248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552766965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137580155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277416837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675725058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900927948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056118031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942732823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899634092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435115765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254157002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251588768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609690795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393129162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307449323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992555311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948849007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281246167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631282757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437362363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030683836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997508454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989242757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042952313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224829163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714821761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920820424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859076058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823982665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031690885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31145207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146851363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007288706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898614896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798582814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072207692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034808536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018190531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923659981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825566263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729810627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137194398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148254734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319323623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483833625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394400031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299869254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065128571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991295079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903294501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370730597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249567961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179518639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4288521894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4070651781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.385544733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875437371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128143382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943953218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018998845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270502935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386335948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344499348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423287479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261965109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861420299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093669907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047529535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782877667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250505933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195180189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001699421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072149961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846937697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165232559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103743518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265988414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483627412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864306328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274865396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459330153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784685307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2192080972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228389956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493476252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057658358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099142335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980974161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948889991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615283653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.412607995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295672088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141299088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399778313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893240835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669013276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427141722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036828222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929595308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839018575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409725395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242733627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054722534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241943219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1934147896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158625984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250719218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.391358159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672768311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739138391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035129304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4074461017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240344017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380103073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676148372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4275558551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4179630608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083062351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4004068206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4123053974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4229063606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3594473924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3846144976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4266661556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203772055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078704715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271675882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7903796029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081306387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117625263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023886135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024548426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027261961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022660185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023614018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027099214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029869836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053903561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110855354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602129407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684365454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"135a1523e67a012ce700a810c8c0c152a5bc6f0f01303ffe7ae28daf9ba4aa7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893595403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815601267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009472813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379928401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024161101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025255423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031214255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024368293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030175932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054117563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022592538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023206213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025343729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725069361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885494172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138852054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023871142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024489989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027049266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023923419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024371214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025728076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102377406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024068129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025256223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023870581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025100614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029202701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fd624728544e09f5ac4a2841c706374ad25753f2246b21ce97d47963b5a9ac9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026537472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fd624728544e09f5ac4a2841c706374ad25753f2246b21ce97d47963b5a9ac9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035210855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fd624728544e09f5ac4a2841c706374ad25753f2246b21ce97d47963b5a9ac9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061744274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095831208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217512427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467101326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023815671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025048765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027441161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022592954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023381747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027286285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022648086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023277871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026173072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1377239001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164990062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930948514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023759023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025381158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029365503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054765439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6808249133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5738765752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023842801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024179566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025808116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889660884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981451317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182771123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976650794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146517782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476421852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239368786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5876649622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4755514866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004877759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189089144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522878393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786729037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085116504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990370226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105412813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228285553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1579242601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817225305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090032569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089080367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532017988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552096641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618227992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"930ea4acda0c9fb95d69c7508977db0f93ec23432b421cc6c38c4bf8bf48aed6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024036172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"930ea4acda0c9fb95d69c7508977db0f93ec23432b421cc6c38c4bf8bf48aed6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024596715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"930ea4acda0c9fb95d69c7508977db0f93ec23432b421cc6c38c4bf8bf48aed6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026077872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791895072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927266837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129861028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093535424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331514836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171152749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102259351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10233973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027710106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023980012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024261106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025723266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531539713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056066226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680757562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023868376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024484445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027003832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023762811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024386624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025617585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819499725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034031058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6112661905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907173185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992092237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182180084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961041037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116851509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1672508965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546000721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599430848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731510795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527206354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541539045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595754076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894659717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036420145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298443633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022761273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023504598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026331091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073527826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235456342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631458077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793415846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6967563992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1625142745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126092533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333837118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624758095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29456873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228803312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34594874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910478569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233391232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385574436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891075891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281454133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492232572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128014711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320806599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581413657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947572036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271535472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3477233202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863982203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396930377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703614919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787455837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498597265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3837190709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133827437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271798778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468699978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027004365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287253613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664495579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138714609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781788226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656642998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881559707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361293422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597988433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924598167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278766838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493333244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196515147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269224235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476159936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156511924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807460446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424908492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913510732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756363978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491248097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888548116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734139045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514845652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911434455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283633254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592978195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899435207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346668716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544051998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169484853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.339983045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457150214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882288141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363635287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624064799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853900892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423561125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712605211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145731341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323696951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625934452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052597069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222528908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406059671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820597193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516413628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3858798638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144855895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327083474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592003513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904556538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779835832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584615366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114195429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243983914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451997745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911317548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242162779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418065804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925060599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293614362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476730742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119011867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782899678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634401151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177541567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338892243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691088103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287525109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413283216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764844883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120009043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295925839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555511344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897043163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318510835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543931458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885034157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690378527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424871872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919064021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771796039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594985046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315622146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327618664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635849194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951227477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831175723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345517463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154238038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313787577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534062293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849975857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418136184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403899189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947594637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752245016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600370192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944425197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296005408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3566015404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099324696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276776358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515024333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150539177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306031561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608576745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239310177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410404009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3716084721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286457332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655037852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3758162473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853606237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675126439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3675743567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841945158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383907861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669975011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"03711ac82da1400cf7d3484c97203d9d904de557286a5b234cdc14e12e0912eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541792473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"03711ac82da1400cf7d3484c97203d9d904de557286a5b234cdc14e12e0912eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543475178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"03711ac82da1400cf7d3484c97203d9d904de557286a5b234cdc14e12e0912eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547716781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676194919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676685981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677801439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"213e07e438e3379a7cf8222200179bed623f5dfc2873820a657355c637aea661","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544613278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"213e07e438e3379a7cf8222200179bed623f5dfc2873820a657355c637aea661","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551778756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"213e07e438e3379a7cf8222200179bed623f5dfc2873820a657355c637aea661","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561552466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819994712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698616071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648644409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2834d888f18f82dd885fb1ca66ff5530aa87298b5d64f975d49108788122c6e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539514941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2834d888f18f82dd885fb1ca66ff5530aa87298b5d64f975d49108788122c6e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542156867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2834d888f18f82dd885fb1ca66ff5530aa87298b5d64f975d49108788122c6e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546464762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2a6fb8d31ed0c3c8a3979ed45193095eed13b2ab6ec2c8027c26e91fa86bd717","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535703179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2a6fb8d31ed0c3c8a3979ed45193095eed13b2ab6ec2c8027c26e91fa86bd717","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535705957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2a6fb8d31ed0c3c8a3979ed45193095eed13b2ab6ec2c8027c26e91fa86bd717","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535885935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774524559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360642902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.374755397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3446060313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277725272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406564591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"342d47368fb7d67239fb78f58656f6ab39818d985bfc6c43abdd731aaff3b681","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317955509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"342d47368fb7d67239fb78f58656f6ab39818d985bfc6c43abdd731aaff3b681","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358685945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"342d47368fb7d67239fb78f58656f6ab39818d985bfc6c43abdd731aaff3b681","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280629387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"34cf2f160ee79c946afff7e5a09731842bacd8d00488b279a4839790533c7532","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674515685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"34cf2f160ee79c946afff7e5a09731842bacd8d00488b279a4839790533c7532","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674520179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"34cf2f160ee79c946afff7e5a09731842bacd8d00488b279a4839790533c7532","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674811555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"413b1dde240eda8fe4a75026bf87f8d06b9a5703782d0602eecc0ff0ee5bc923","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539170522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"413b1dde240eda8fe4a75026bf87f8d06b9a5703782d0602eecc0ff0ee5bc923","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542226275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"413b1dde240eda8fe4a75026bf87f8d06b9a5703782d0602eecc0ff0ee5bc923","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548675553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555666969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552023943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554705282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535322726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535326098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535353428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715350066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751908369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777242491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"4ac8435e5efdb7b2a506bc2171ff3f89711981138b29636b430d08054775d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609614348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"4ac8435e5efdb7b2a506bc2171ff3f89711981138b29636b430d08054775d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714945739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"4ac8435e5efdb7b2a506bc2171ff3f89711981138b29636b430d08054775d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775402229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"511f3b0c89f309eeb69f924c0fa445814f458454f3faee9a6af3c5a90d5a2a9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541311393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"511f3b0c89f309eeb69f924c0fa445814f458454f3faee9a6af3c5a90d5a2a9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546252499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"511f3b0c89f309eeb69f924c0fa445814f458454f3faee9a6af3c5a90d5a2a9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555491152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"51794320e4eaf6dce73fcec311904174799ffab326819036ed38b71a8c4fb88e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541783069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"51794320e4eaf6dce73fcec311904174799ffab326819036ed38b71a8c4fb88e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542571372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"51794320e4eaf6dce73fcec311904174799ffab326819036ed38b71a8c4fb88e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545042986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343188547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268039878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878254248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696214074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691098589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703952572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7803086892fc327ac5bb9b12e868c533c5f75f13de20adb7e578874681cbf039","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542088692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7803086892fc327ac5bb9b12e868c533c5f75f13de20adb7e578874681cbf039","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547446442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7803086892fc327ac5bb9b12e868c533c5f75f13de20adb7e578874681cbf039","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557559177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431340a31c933ce12e5f50350b55958262dfecdf7d7dc780016a07fb5671e0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704413093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431340a31c933ce12e5f50350b55958262dfecdf7d7dc780016a07fb5671e0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682086359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431340a31c933ce12e5f50350b55958262dfecdf7d7dc780016a07fb5671e0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701231238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431ca2860143ca3969b57d233e4ed36d0a8943fb040a1beb5573085c75804e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537048065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431ca2860143ca3969b57d233e4ed36d0a8943fb040a1beb5573085c75804e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537064207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431ca2860143ca3969b57d233e4ed36d0a8943fb040a1beb5573085c75804e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537602208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053699525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537000811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537295809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537438228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537877163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538916992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081093559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852557162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896747865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"983648d31063f8c663754970501c04bb493c31adb8d6b65d1e1f9dc195c581f6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676656051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"983648d31063f8c663754970501c04bb493c31adb8d6b65d1e1f9dc195c581f6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679215044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"983648d31063f8c663754970501c04bb493c31adb8d6b65d1e1f9dc195c581f6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683714493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aab8a113335e0ce44c678f9c27e1eaf14e12dae127db54c830d705e9d6ca90b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813276059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aab8a113335e0ce44c678f9c27e1eaf14e12dae127db54c830d705e9d6ca90b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813447204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aab8a113335e0ce44c678f9c27e1eaf14e12dae127db54c830d705e9d6ca90b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813907254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"ac79637a2ec06be6493cc0ec541585668645e3dda51fc7b2fd494926aa578bb7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541431495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"ac79637a2ec06be6493cc0ec541585668645e3dda51fc7b2fd494926aa578bb7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548494375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"ac79637a2ec06be6493cc0ec541585668645e3dda51fc7b2fd494926aa578bb7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564522413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aff18fd224bd26a4eced9a215c6ac14ba44e361c88465e51412fda54d51a6d4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095203666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aff18fd224bd26a4eced9a215c6ac14ba44e361c88465e51412fda54d51a6d4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813333085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aff18fd224bd26a4eced9a215c6ac14ba44e361c88465e51412fda54d51a6d4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813616956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c27914dff280a3815515bf9f10f3c59d61735af8ef915e762a7dff178a69cc11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562289426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c27914dff280a3815515bf9f10f3c59d61735af8ef915e762a7dff178a69cc11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592222584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c27914dff280a3815515bf9f10f3c59d61735af8ef915e762a7dff178a69cc11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634497738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c51ef3e231e76e8bc2f34e6818aeb9c352130e68a7026fcf329141614f65a19c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556779703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c51ef3e231e76e8bc2f34e6818aeb9c352130e68a7026fcf329141614f65a19c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3952331131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c51ef3e231e76e8bc2f34e6818aeb9c352130e68a7026fcf329141614f65a19c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573011443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26798202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270595121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028755829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535883202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053592658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536393467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718632447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716926678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744888673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d57555e4bb9d6451b3002e2366da287a89269b163adcd1bf49e848f0df88a811","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792264772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d57555e4bb9d6451b3002e2366da287a89269b163adcd1bf49e848f0df88a811","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242837962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d57555e4bb9d6451b3002e2366da287a89269b163adcd1bf49e848f0df88a811","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228895224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286132988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127989009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133236122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535419331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535421019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535424552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbf841d9fd3a6629131e06e4fd7bc0fb58dc5a9129435d4c0b98472ba220ba78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540598675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbf841d9fd3a6629131e06e4fd7bc0fb58dc5a9129435d4c0b98472ba220ba78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054262676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbf841d9fd3a6629131e06e4fd7bc0fb58dc5a9129435d4c0b98472ba220ba78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547852787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dc6ece8237f233089bf891ec750633d283402255fd5b60b99d0b3853f2d65ee4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955533842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dc6ece8237f233089bf891ec750633d283402255fd5b60b99d0b3853f2d65ee4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5175050378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dc6ece8237f233089bf891ec750633d283402255fd5b60b99d0b3853f2d65ee4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385967274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"de66ba6519ef01e06d7059e5eee45e8a22fa9d553eb6ce5aef1352bac8b6e1eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555907362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"de66ba6519ef01e06d7059e5eee45e8a22fa9d553eb6ce5aef1352bac8b6e1eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553905935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"de66ba6519ef01e06d7059e5eee45e8a22fa9d553eb6ce5aef1352bac8b6e1eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559003644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779922394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835117143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256749728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e274f8a2957087f0701ff64ef42f41426098c6460e3c1443bff3853c2c642a96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014097948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e274f8a2957087f0701ff64ef42f41426098c6460e3c1443bff3853c2c642a96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106831409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e274f8a2957087f0701ff64ef42f41426098c6460e3c1443bff3853c2c642a96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148197092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e98c06f8469d894f8f50b23de9c98ae8689485d36e2058e94ef34633a2616ffe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614576288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e98c06f8469d894f8f50b23de9c98ae8689485d36e2058e94ef34633a2616ffe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615031787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e98c06f8469d894f8f50b23de9c98ae8689485d36e2058e94ef34633a2616ffe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624471188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eae0bc4de7369ea4d3f8b87eb29c6c67ee79ceb05a4fd07d0a50f7053918dedb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679130698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eae0bc4de7369ea4d3f8b87eb29c6c67ee79ceb05a4fd07d0a50f7053918dedb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540884917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eae0bc4de7369ea4d3f8b87eb29c6c67ee79ceb05a4fd07d0a50f7053918dedb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542669549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eaef280097718cac83d54dfce2b21145bbe6cc2598359ab22bb41c3c7ed74088","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539116595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eaef280097718cac83d54dfce2b21145bbe6cc2598359ab22bb41c3c7ed74088","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543899971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eaef280097718cac83d54dfce2b21145bbe6cc2598359ab22bb41c3c7ed74088","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554462334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696709014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07226064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767934186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f5f31cd8e043254c116cef976ff36ff61281e3bbe503131e7126f7e16f64a0d3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682917401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f5f31cd8e043254c116cef976ff36ff61281e3bbe503131e7126f7e16f64a0d3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677420852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f5f31cd8e043254c116cef976ff36ff61281e3bbe503131e7126f7e16f64a0d3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067804247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538404215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540180081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543562756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fac8c551d8ebb11add6d4f67f263cd9e870bf5a51c7796598f9fe9e0b5a69353","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227088239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fac8c551d8ebb11add6d4f67f263cd9e870bf5a51c7796598f9fe9e0b5a69353","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332321471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fac8c551d8ebb11add6d4f67f263cd9e870bf5a51c7796598f9fe9e0b5a69353","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1390385476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fadc22b52bd6724520276b68ec26b48713c46e052b7415107e43509c1bf3e772","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674940017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fadc22b52bd6724520276b68ec26b48713c46e052b7415107e43509c1bf3e772","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680001336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fadc22b52bd6724520276b68ec26b48713c46e052b7415107e43509c1bf3e772","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664899218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807194846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398715605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622183134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3596888641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1599096718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912033149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1666117194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068673079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723566528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420025947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664289092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815274228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524881285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691543688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652865158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1506996102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643458308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423725942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618197914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655790133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789024676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511546358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693674385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556601968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455402999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693952129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274527123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406174181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658790321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922164936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5973143516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598630461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382633392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5231693971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216056431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638622063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.615647345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645791356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409688658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367255629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064562471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591269782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1329993347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701562309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719812863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5864264508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633251224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656452157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198917018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619988959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253942664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6639502263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623407429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268102203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1466675761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667122079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614125057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5793209823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687300165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793533087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5452994047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670343907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812850395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5879039911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659400802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147481947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5262672068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657447707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552333745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331271956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756388932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707064824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483120057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645862737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706979684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6122375685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581533109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405624181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6278490889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726614798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422160925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246539943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627126974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653394366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5608107533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796939525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6700208167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582159699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242610414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5855173952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580535454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264623531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5737879161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671510431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344603739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242423098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627182523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.411435156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166560955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625349414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193679063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6391977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059063144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377224206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359881884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634622377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890294441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363828047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510718511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432461584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864419993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186802039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635186664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2010624322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046057858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618216628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080282463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265758611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816273965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1822962934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189199156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450971339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894906717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763310165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989725132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332751401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916944894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2043172286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914036305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127578563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4053461656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237941108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850879287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1859533152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007838158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669587407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4745273017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083460015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3500957086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521496914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937852671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617418363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268848545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064365443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837954821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028069182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299354128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851409756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724920288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011390773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325086233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712851839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164159342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037930105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911760035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238177577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584769312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3983397994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997387663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863978679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276317847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080388921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664656485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4082551925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923843797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272095772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731193843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296338305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756195571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546152301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974742009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868769883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793036096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093535662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091086774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162729346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063509455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437047821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3854518979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951045998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808424497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684611848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995568059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884351367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702081001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042741657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052026703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085757235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30438964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974243285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919875305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943898428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728569408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493290826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143088065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250804844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356483188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665982664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755988657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097106307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712336272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774163788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991313633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019226941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183012351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1657760198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977056515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952503725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937581503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020815253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977240198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950001062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257439344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3630886558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166586966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709930129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104599524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.13932202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978729162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257517256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215986244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454422548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337670908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321942036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728999577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572982028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454172247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048084171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303999505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065469329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298145043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029400474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309433023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101553154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280712381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1698699386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188267355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061376465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874156742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300644042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422675827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311808228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078129368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091244557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946693709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278587753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528687002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582574253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3757990666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539323824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4037877008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094276218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932490833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5136505494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4684322148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974091987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6707044239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5488546487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5380670195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217471638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330779963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1517515173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1563231734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755656713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013210044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122949621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371481421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371437812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015466454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728048961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417285287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987470033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977038372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936979089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270395584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386714399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047754686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.477088196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4917906521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.470846679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054385997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942549664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825395995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543065259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041024558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911445243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4127322453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531717011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334401346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0117323aa66a6bfa92485b98cd86cf58ff7dca3f8e5f75ae82fd29e57f4d3d74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036804636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0117323aa66a6bfa92485b98cd86cf58ff7dca3f8e5f75ae82fd29e57f4d3d74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036808724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0117323aa66a6bfa92485b98cd86cf58ff7dca3f8e5f75ae82fd29e57f4d3d74","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036998629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299434138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587176701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215988077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036805737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036824152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037045948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035362718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035544934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035912106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039190438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043198298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053323703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036858512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037099827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037661697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882707361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054797411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373480076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815693809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934323476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191446799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964349407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7333450633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808412878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750390222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829713847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004150276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037053477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042307295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063217631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731947479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883706684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128121359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103693127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037478981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038513854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035524798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035539913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036097594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037135684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039979225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088020568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042245059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052497137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077326321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036927959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037165791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039463671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1305827019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1545310997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089702778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036872394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037274028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039909379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814812597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075224716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1712219422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035418122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035603102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035834745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036860168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037372883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103817169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036819091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036992972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103731482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076809947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196039916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1548464167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036819106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038493907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041975236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765957761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881651935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288712673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797495012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844600358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636725637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542474556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561494901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623924749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735558703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815382268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948754278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036694671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036698787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036727978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037304008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037980069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040152815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036747837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036749642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036931592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758167053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890441976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106235005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349390294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1592717279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755394578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036859618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103703303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037508849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126394071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288506609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379160075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036860751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036876099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037263174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037208458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038847841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047724949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175565987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175569686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036712447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936424596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7931095341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6661090613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882930112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988750494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1177170768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2492e4d012f9a1d2d56d0fa594799965a6d4acbf26142552c94e50ce2356b00","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103545715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2492e4d012f9a1d2d56d0fa594799965a6d4acbf26142552c94e50ce2356b00","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035542273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2492e4d012f9a1d2d56d0fa594799965a6d4acbf26142552c94e50ce2356b00","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036260247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261336399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393063012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5102615442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937422332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114800767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5286667829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715575038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822068116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128746139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317536628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333267005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526526031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847710405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432259007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472343904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313405693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276645135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538467232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160458478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304181603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607045752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092140493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841100689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434251076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198217107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443298044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435230836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317262749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389311367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706426162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855245282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423352031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3693381788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159278724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399161294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748202258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158400938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350774739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625965386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137668787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380935937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249358781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29515164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853344893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690313921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905285491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351943843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614890477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176152811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325095446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450446649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953040505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325647427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468007373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162866255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397130742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3649350408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169610076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371059986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651991253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186190073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356017158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619966932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176195359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335247343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648415783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146803721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757693996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575671341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120084149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345807228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636992255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295211654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804798894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676139585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196291384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409970002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449779246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160086646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317072366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581862303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090733472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848725291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653513063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097132165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325224912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401334788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891843442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686948787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246389592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171558414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330361177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565082466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943130956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284576203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3533406447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168685365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753330491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574180232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196489812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343855934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112837187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272146316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557870434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888588319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441752533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417540417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205845922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371305288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609164899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162512181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299350876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551071682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315294066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321250171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569553187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133484166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254479301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341046466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117722575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829101987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657896187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928890461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379792399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514632733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090549546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203498558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738607821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180711991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363270761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3630722621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126003204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321967107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614853381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114588427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325983514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578497495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312198166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246519288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445381442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TTD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921741237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TTD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368703064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TTD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654753262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187421249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425073382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396560158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147865516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333572468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254115009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183850011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410136726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2451789891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310858196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3273231711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537853988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"00a049905199ac469a9fba64b6344da53114af7d80235f8884dc50c4f01901f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316403956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"00a049905199ac469a9fba64b6344da53114af7d80235f8884dc50c4f01901f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334481188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"00a049905199ac469a9fba64b6344da53114af7d80235f8884dc50c4f01901f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5840023667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"044c3011fda3cd18f3e9571cd86f61175b53237aa850e3f5530cf7d2374492ba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813862703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"044c3011fda3cd18f3e9571cd86f61175b53237aa850e3f5530cf7d2374492ba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814187108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"044c3011fda3cd18f3e9571cd86f61175b53237aa850e3f5530cf7d2374492ba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815510863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0753f9ed5ca42a8980428b1952cebf8a524e1515f19d8ed408b2ad33396669f7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015231601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0753f9ed5ca42a8980428b1952cebf8a524e1515f19d8ed408b2ad33396669f7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006556551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0753f9ed5ca42a8980428b1952cebf8a524e1515f19d8ed408b2ad33396669f7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038152684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0d4ec7a241c5fc470e0b742bb1d3c91f5b5fd37c59118505ca7eb9e3fa7ac4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675755972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0d4ec7a241c5fc470e0b742bb1d3c91f5b5fd37c59118505ca7eb9e3fa7ac4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539209967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0d4ec7a241c5fc470e0b742bb1d3c91f5b5fd37c59118505ca7eb9e3fa7ac4fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542756971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"123bdd8a9e5f84206cb36447b6dc44a964e248de37c6ac5dabc3128a2a3f0f46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809836096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"123bdd8a9e5f84206cb36447b6dc44a964e248de37c6ac5dabc3128a2a3f0f46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671208079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"123bdd8a9e5f84206cb36447b6dc44a964e248de37c6ac5dabc3128a2a3f0f46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671734931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051801131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474722149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559791901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682460985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546077876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552960923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"1cca39143d5ce5dfa1bfb48e0b99b9c970cfa4049011704bd3107bfb6ea1c3db","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448328041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"1cca39143d5ce5dfa1bfb48e0b99b9c970cfa4049011704bd3107bfb6ea1c3db","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259817542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"1cca39143d5ce5dfa1bfb48e0b99b9c970cfa4049011704bd3107bfb6ea1c3db","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669153955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606312526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653087913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719031509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"2978e6b4d3cccbdfacbed29e60e49d3de40d1501f1e32597e84e5f0e624cc47f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561293875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"2978e6b4d3cccbdfacbed29e60e49d3de40d1501f1e32597e84e5f0e624cc47f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578098341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"2978e6b4d3cccbdfacbed29e60e49d3de40d1501f1e32597e84e5f0e624cc47f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609144202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"3157077f3f4bb5666b520971f3fb90fef7569ffa3347093e432c2ba7b64ad019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743509069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"3157077f3f4bb5666b520971f3fb90fef7569ffa3347093e432c2ba7b64ad019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770485212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"3157077f3f4bb5666b520971f3fb90fef7569ffa3347093e432c2ba7b64ad019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803840574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"409a5ded50c02a0fd0f086671ef1262fbed31503178fb56d3045076d77da8112","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690711195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"409a5ded50c02a0fd0f086671ef1262fbed31503178fb56d3045076d77da8112","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728935799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"409a5ded50c02a0fd0f086671ef1262fbed31503178fb56d3045076d77da8112","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4009038741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"4125088f11f16e7d2a2c4f0d23887aaf2b9766b9a7ee0cd324e16e82250df434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677880434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"4125088f11f16e7d2a2c4f0d23887aaf2b9766b9a7ee0cd324e16e82250df434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662820055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"4125088f11f16e7d2a2c4f0d23887aaf2b9766b9a7ee0cd324e16e82250df434","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671570651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"418b3b6cf1140eba6e21f20c2d1050b41088dc0963bd7bdc813226ccde9dfe72","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748941968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"418b3b6cf1140eba6e21f20c2d1050b41088dc0963bd7bdc813226ccde9dfe72","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220005984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"418b3b6cf1140eba6e21f20c2d1050b41088dc0963bd7bdc813226ccde9dfe72","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710668875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531814438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531816122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531827833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"55e875e1b0802c85349c46d50eeebb0fd29ce7e02733f9962332ba16cf12bf49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153057941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"55e875e1b0802c85349c46d50eeebb0fd29ce7e02733f9962332ba16cf12bf49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566006741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"55e875e1b0802c85349c46d50eeebb0fd29ce7e02733f9962332ba16cf12bf49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808770364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"616432adb62d57d9bd7e8f8844695f7671554d5d80e2ce2b8b689e2673eceee1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915636892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"616432adb62d57d9bd7e8f8844695f7671554d5d80e2ce2b8b689e2673eceee1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041835892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"616432adb62d57d9bd7e8f8844695f7671554d5d80e2ce2b8b689e2673eceee1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987770286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"643c5961fe41035d9e260380459f5050f7202251691a6f6ca85c87701a8f1c19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712234147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"643c5961fe41035d9e260380459f5050f7202251691a6f6ca85c87701a8f1c19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721844082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"643c5961fe41035d9e260380459f5050f7202251691a6f6ca85c87701a8f1c19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716382661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6a91e7ed6c1fee060fd80808d240fa26d31968aff20f634d593fe343247ac98b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688854647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6a91e7ed6c1fee060fd80808d240fa26d31968aff20f634d593fe343247ac98b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684180219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6a91e7ed6c1fee060fd80808d240fa26d31968aff20f634d593fe343247ac98b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055063717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6b54163ef0fd03bb8fe13a9bc84a45e66a5ea4c9f892e9843a7b32d9e9e54889","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486937449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6b54163ef0fd03bb8fe13a9bc84a45e66a5ea4c9f892e9843a7b32d9e9e54889","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618879242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6b54163ef0fd03bb8fe13a9bc84a45e66a5ea4c9f892e9843a7b32d9e9e54889","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.373160695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6e8a71ee5341795f1c3c1c1b63222e5e6368c6a3c4d9652eeb3ac7aaf878d363","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538224193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6e8a71ee5341795f1c3c1c1b63222e5e6368c6a3c4d9652eeb3ac7aaf878d363","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540221726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6e8a71ee5341795f1c3c1c1b63222e5e6368c6a3c4d9652eeb3ac7aaf878d363","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543134147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7346aa891f4b0bb16562944b521fae5a4b25866f3d5829050b4288f4105eaa6e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534021402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7346aa891f4b0bb16562944b521fae5a4b25866f3d5829050b4288f4105eaa6e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535385257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7346aa891f4b0bb16562944b521fae5a4b25866f3d5829050b4288f4105eaa6e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539025345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"73b4211a0b5e36e8b9e6e5cd7ea56a9e96e48cfc915aeb098ad12df98295949e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687067088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"73b4211a0b5e36e8b9e6e5cd7ea56a9e96e48cfc915aeb098ad12df98295949e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687924761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"73b4211a0b5e36e8b9e6e5cd7ea56a9e96e48cfc915aeb098ad12df98295949e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707593465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"79f0173ffa67eb11babd74a5a35b4588b01f2eeae678dee1d512a2252aff5888","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539131021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"79f0173ffa67eb11babd74a5a35b4588b01f2eeae678dee1d512a2252aff5888","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542797794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"79f0173ffa67eb11babd74a5a35b4588b01f2eeae678dee1d512a2252aff5888","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547620065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7a7120b9a21fde5f708183084258b18d27d795ffd965477f60986932a010a49f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873952599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7a7120b9a21fde5f708183084258b18d27d795ffd965477f60986932a010a49f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878103508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7a7120b9a21fde5f708183084258b18d27d795ffd965477f60986932a010a49f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887258837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"822017f9638dde6e392933bad78ba8c8e847c9e7a7bb58a1295500f516a39cd2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809671566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"822017f9638dde6e392933bad78ba8c8e847c9e7a7bb58a1295500f516a39cd2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809953254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"822017f9638dde6e392933bad78ba8c8e847c9e7a7bb58a1295500f516a39cd2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810362782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"84560290f0fdd0e711e926a753f1afc7e2f130115d683bccf996c12bd11ddfc4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054172712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"84560290f0fdd0e711e926a753f1afc7e2f130115d683bccf996c12bd11ddfc4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548144695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"84560290f0fdd0e711e926a753f1afc7e2f130115d683bccf996c12bd11ddfc4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561114997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670702602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670707179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670775059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"8a674c0c1e915dd8a5897a031e36909008a9fdf2e2c8b1e4d76f728a14e85953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542921124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"8a674c0c1e915dd8a5897a031e36909008a9fdf2e2c8b1e4d76f728a14e85953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545193279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"8a674c0c1e915dd8a5897a031e36909008a9fdf2e2c8b1e4d76f728a14e85953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550119648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083627105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865175846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093071338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9c2a318d050a0c01e7aa14d9c4a0b5d5256c82d1fdbf9bd89259d170bb6a86b7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834637916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9c2a318d050a0c01e7aa14d9c4a0b5d5256c82d1fdbf9bd89259d170bb6a86b7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858037275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9c2a318d050a0c01e7aa14d9c4a0b5d5256c82d1fdbf9bd89259d170bb6a86b7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270443469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534998021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535377563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536335996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552089185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569181537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601040429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531872776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532045582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532350267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170774434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367914196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131252957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707013211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064091732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d6cfb1dbeff7cb7fde1788b6d3fcab7adbebac4f6d9609a2c221b6815dd39907","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999026959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d6cfb1dbeff7cb7fde1788b6d3fcab7adbebac4f6d9609a2c221b6815dd39907","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034395075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d6cfb1dbeff7cb7fde1788b6d3fcab7adbebac4f6d9609a2c221b6815dd39907","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073406967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d88c1f6fb332d08add9d5dbbddfb34e317bdb14d98f4e465fbe09b96525bc481","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533386496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d88c1f6fb332d08add9d5dbbddfb34e317bdb14d98f4e465fbe09b96525bc481","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533795451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d88c1f6fb332d08add9d5dbbddfb34e317bdb14d98f4e465fbe09b96525bc481","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534504143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570098647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058288986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602851333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307497661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234006312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331383627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"dc55c43ce17ab2246dbe364c2eb8e4a9194d66bdb215004fa108595f00320394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532958582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"dc55c43ce17ab2246dbe364c2eb8e4a9194d66bdb215004fa108595f00320394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533576428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"dc55c43ce17ab2246dbe364c2eb8e4a9194d66bdb215004fa108595f00320394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535092943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533939234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534833663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538134815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737125406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171518354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854079426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eb5315a618033ded4b60bd36f659477ec080cff43e308268d1d6fe472768ae8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544366219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eb5315a618033ded4b60bd36f659477ec080cff43e308268d1d6fe472768ae8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054961391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eb5315a618033ded4b60bd36f659477ec080cff43e308268d1d6fe472768ae8d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561140277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810574772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814041348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815828907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702902603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907854187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860983812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f926682cc23c69ba51e3f9f6a46664eababcc63145fc83417cb4abf455b04c08","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533098231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f926682cc23c69ba51e3f9f6a46664eababcc63145fc83417cb4abf455b04c08","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533107669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f926682cc23c69ba51e3f9f6a46664eababcc63145fc83417cb4abf455b04c08","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533134194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557767357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571322364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588153082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fef64d8f20c964d6708373e1472436bf6580e5dfa0bb2e431894d50fafff84a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950048249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fef64d8f20c964d6708373e1472436bf6580e5dfa0bb2e431894d50fafff84a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080135813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fef64d8f20c964d6708373e1472436bf6580e5dfa0bb2e431894d50fafff84a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804623958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fff8d1d6b7d9eee2f6b482635d4cc8df11acd69cfc229ed893605d02dee9bd5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900858932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fff8d1d6b7d9eee2f6b482635d4cc8df11acd69cfc229ed893605d02dee9bd5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019570514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fff8d1d6b7d9eee2f6b482635d4cc8df11acd69cfc229ed893605d02dee9bd5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868635653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4215415272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211394029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617855558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162450059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086353777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608356721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4257339892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299661005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473124793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276941563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695082218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524191715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288773448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590497795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220881595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354209884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693346319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251992326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257610595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594372321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2050902398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242390236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609150512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2182006026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145513203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565639726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223214643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136236561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624757491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191881401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065522993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572250029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446020708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255944133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610800866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145261269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124559666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560654225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183719476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352099031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739729532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123347096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108184438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057150012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270196656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224836829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070796953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041466219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106924476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563653858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024657158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887631431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561862411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139874523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210560798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734744031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255777888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121361598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630909516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108470822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212449456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722453868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013402069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066245127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575471856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323980522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120017318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065262908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191746384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163622098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603428991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300238833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255397149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653034031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151846112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119238641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604468308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4830776425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044747758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598873992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4841116474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056635192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617161199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1919307392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004363811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057565239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993756058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101101633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059350465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.204053943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022361608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563321121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4424484552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106629073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594555077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4432833108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167621609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069801297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911858869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100530814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564195459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1948420497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052851977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585867251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314151651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619765948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639362597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754501522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818705556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3407683109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197606665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836198119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984441348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655269645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927029631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558183146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214850772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397853403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5329680528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505691345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958586924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277930168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272430841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060389963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773369534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.667883601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258492881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004968584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1759660263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149324717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307586723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995490453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3955865064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487860194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094409341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3972825569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1506968967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895377149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944302946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4183007742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634739666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520733786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254655239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616345586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121240983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307718681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538845089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809496144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507546183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3866166781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185381788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457194043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3866456995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938319926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330348908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670545122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051703926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299770825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729594312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112492551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378039352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3813243297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961533179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314689393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3576554294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313285816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133671595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355354576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006193967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067975469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017306191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194533716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674499887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.384587913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961866417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363982911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558369051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055381895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051155818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129053046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188131295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392948672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691238997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327656903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201300628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053386752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696772357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790416946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146133299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014150457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138038524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925581662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148650066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124559646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143973614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916513745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324909981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724959109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349285987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002128118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324398986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012152405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685873368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973434831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809186131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950269729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262631677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606762648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609628539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592129346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807284339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756580549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659253737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311721526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134027546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207288044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697497261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730895056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855192956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562751877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.192583282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1466280012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956405416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979116749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119713396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526630544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284423836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398923279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212196631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914194969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693989017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272373172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3931514315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301538144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249183748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163952265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907123196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519136715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3961601966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025801611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226258931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435162001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196713948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636788898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377190085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049219241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296784738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843015405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4019447251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4103873409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530078202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601622547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796595795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036180319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956837356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213159552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002201286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106469015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207171999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925662726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792267963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696197611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651246507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216049101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844922199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6055361708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5712585406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4943235486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274231735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4370735796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4256842585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151811401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.433113271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320830682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4239295505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3947852061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590944037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938086941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3847127804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.368559174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894719109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3804617096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444612567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956939643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465667192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328337165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6294279166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6150210177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5675349883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734286309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845161073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048080683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033643567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034545123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038824044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075256185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873990878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213671528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897376905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091964201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406647911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033104188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103312988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034341815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103237761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033143089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103517018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730842286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739354578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803443956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034225718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037260918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046929296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537061002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547813019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586942675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033200843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033545248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035664447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033143078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033318073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034601938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031761025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031949891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032294327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033215286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033445813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034321278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b84647ac79598cc907b31cf1a0eb5aa9b35ae2365e8fcd340f335dc7d4f564a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031808919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b84647ac79598cc907b31cf1a0eb5aa9b35ae2365e8fcd340f335dc7d4f564a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031979093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b84647ac79598cc907b31cf1a0eb5aa9b35ae2365e8fcd340f335dc7d4f564a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032440319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103364635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034243515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035745115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163430718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427953926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5641562467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707567357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814553708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020250756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"829075fe690276eb3114bfa2836d3aa34ad61cce046054b986c3c5e8b755b15c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541809865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"829075fe690276eb3114bfa2836d3aa34ad61cce046054b986c3c5e8b755b15c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558487824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"829075fe690276eb3114bfa2836d3aa34ad61cce046054b986c3c5e8b755b15c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619855314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033255281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033606921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035632257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514967988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6123181791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090064271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655462622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764670924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932205975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033199177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033709114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034777333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103387631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038145788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088605723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778336473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874393606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111435035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264492245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654155028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4970271937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032198743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032670369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034740788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d5864e3e45973c1e336d54db06b8e02d5bb02f5790b0923deb638b92164d384","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033144322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d5864e3e45973c1e336d54db06b8e02d5bb02f5790b0923deb638b92164d384","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033314379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d5864e3e45973c1e336d54db06b8e02d5bb02f5790b0923deb638b92164d384","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034391097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273286921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550523165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092796062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904653792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115012375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157429406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895932637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007141249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270109066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921651712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036026603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126099907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08419398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919818603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066134029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033196977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033271452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034629751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097203444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105851391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366708355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103320031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033553628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034684706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033311391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033989796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035352941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881767704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1346099766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1873424118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810720843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908653302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132403697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821275107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090964324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1702778336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760393669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129515161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6136346846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033270279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033554691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034509577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740230026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853437838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094130603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103310045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033144211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033325989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680181264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811109685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240779322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033545801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036663214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049002376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103338582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034243493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036882615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09199297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128015345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629599489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031867123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031944352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103235053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033862979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034594556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038159675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033312018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033764469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136150554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272414739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498638663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014132716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176316155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010854796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120085281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259420589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633971113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290029944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351154203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358577125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168699664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389927064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692624687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242971345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493428511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830023495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177073008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309098524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610257233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234532744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724873546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484310284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157372619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322905426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514381494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188179294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413479479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736864904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155492872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305113746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463646703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131214698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812607197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653750208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949964051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223902483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268154118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196815593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720127669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492455613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181091171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787949094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633116163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953831096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265845895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418032332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927829375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792131136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614519672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150131448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341173681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535958049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102808061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787599122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638272849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214786807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637654694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422092524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314548069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773233281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600885697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194286593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367322201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657538974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899767206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701041575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3677645024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156407254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731131633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249903831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865617954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695475693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455617729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913268964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747390722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565826315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153571434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308182483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526859003},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868278332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750751261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519848506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307044443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248987004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632307107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956745741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852470032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699590032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912430383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929265826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827193128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096282791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854605082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396574661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139171144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800031753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642579907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110340562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241316988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462878236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139316479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328737812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625902018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900952958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367493821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610764182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168560149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810792297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692782586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182797248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728375267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513116302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223990122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397749186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698409985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924415034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763157877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598262039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913526061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766739826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606927277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151371627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323060759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558170087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117016341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862043517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VTRS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716756468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900783409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785898313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600768637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926857848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247540687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383644126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"00ec60fc48a12136178cf46443d3b8e7ea0bea0c368afe41200f20c6329f7dd2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621045404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"00ec60fc48a12136178cf46443d3b8e7ea0bea0c368afe41200f20c6329f7dd2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504725826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"00ec60fc48a12136178cf46443d3b8e7ea0bea0c368afe41200f20c6329f7dd2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502307275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609279104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609881552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613937547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553020869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561829688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584363402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521602362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529016484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540722552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"102767a88f6d075527f03c402c40e476cf5c467e5173922095d58b4f7bc99921","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982452392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"102767a88f6d075527f03c402c40e476cf5c467e5173922095d58b4f7bc99921","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008555231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"102767a88f6d075527f03c402c40e476cf5c467e5173922095d58b4f7bc99921","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024753481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"10dd44afffe94d13e79aa679225f20a837818f17004460ab0b000884bee6b453","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618340093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"10dd44afffe94d13e79aa679225f20a837818f17004460ab0b000884bee6b453","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513350304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"10dd44afffe94d13e79aa679225f20a837818f17004460ab0b000884bee6b453","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526078285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049468383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495379327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497053493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"1a1a62f30060096bde1974f01231b6fbd543e89dee58803a35a07834bbb71cb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724418568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"1a1a62f30060096bde1974f01231b6fbd543e89dee58803a35a07834bbb71cb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611989447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"1a1a62f30060096bde1974f01231b6fbd543e89dee58803a35a07834bbb71cb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640510478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"20ef5a47055e5593c63f1dfb0979def75d522e2d74abeaefc8e5a53a8fd20bd6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519231324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"20ef5a47055e5593c63f1dfb0979def75d522e2d74abeaefc8e5a53a8fd20bd6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525919989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"20ef5a47055e5593c63f1dfb0979def75d522e2d74abeaefc8e5a53a8fd20bd6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538997318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641487487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540350669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551858936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606859139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543104836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051350531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"270e01f2c86479e7c72867ec5c7cc84cb41762bacf7ed7f8814d5ce0e99ba3de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500606359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"270e01f2c86479e7c72867ec5c7cc84cb41762bacf7ed7f8814d5ce0e99ba3de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500954428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"270e01f2c86479e7c72867ec5c7cc84cb41762bacf7ed7f8814d5ce0e99ba3de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502219434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"27f93eed3e1f9314f12558ef9b081d2340ec4b20f324f801a3da34e6e4498ac6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209516714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"27f93eed3e1f9314f12558ef9b081d2340ec4b20f324f801a3da34e6e4498ac6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359769633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"27f93eed3e1f9314f12558ef9b081d2340ec4b20f324f801a3da34e6e4498ac6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4179894218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"2c589789ca64da4b396d27477dd221f02e18f8d1c4eb050f5f6f5acbb1cfd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523827203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"2c589789ca64da4b396d27477dd221f02e18f8d1c4eb050f5f6f5acbb1cfd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536874581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"2c589789ca64da4b396d27477dd221f02e18f8d1c4eb050f5f6f5acbb1cfd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553524312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"3a1360a4e194b535b3a9e62cd39b441d828778aeea087e36d8a73ce5e3352506","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500892087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"3a1360a4e194b535b3a9e62cd39b441d828778aeea087e36d8a73ce5e3352506","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500786182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"3a1360a4e194b535b3a9e62cd39b441d828778aeea087e36d8a73ce5e3352506","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050169875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4702e7ff2f55b8a5db773cc75d7b6447bc272eee1bf2b839ef8f84c7ef282a4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494102435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4702e7ff2f55b8a5db773cc75d7b6447bc272eee1bf2b839ef8f84c7ef282a4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049424169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4702e7ff2f55b8a5db773cc75d7b6447bc272eee1bf2b839ef8f84c7ef282a4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494479091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616205847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504149915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502303566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"47aceb7529788153ac770e83d9a51e70f5bd5ed5d7476d32fb586424ac444039","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990353335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"47aceb7529788153ac770e83d9a51e70f5bd5ed5d7476d32fb586424ac444039","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989698786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"47aceb7529788153ac770e83d9a51e70f5bd5ed5d7476d32fb586424ac444039","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985896952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4c5838cada42d44ac688a0efee008646d66f82d768050b79247d1187336b7041","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582157066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4c5838cada42d44ac688a0efee008646d66f82d768050b79247d1187336b7041","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591465287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4c5838cada42d44ac688a0efee008646d66f82d768050b79247d1187336b7041","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619930886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"51d732942c96e49feab240dba706ac169da31dacff3cca8107c2866113324aa3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117415795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"51d732942c96e49feab240dba706ac169da31dacff3cca8107c2866113324aa3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183094712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"51d732942c96e49feab240dba706ac169da31dacff3cca8107c2866113324aa3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832747611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010462268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027235067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375145643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5c85331f03dc37ebab48332b19bd8ebde8c22ff0984b939facd489b87280a7a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640452296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5c85331f03dc37ebab48332b19bd8ebde8c22ff0984b939facd489b87280a7a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654020536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5c85331f03dc37ebab48332b19bd8ebde8c22ff0984b939facd489b87280a7a5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678202457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5deef8db1c971774080b8a4647dba21f84c61214a5891baeeb431d9f0f40a2c1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049612318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5deef8db1c971774080b8a4647dba21f84c61214a5891baeeb431d9f0f40a2c1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496796815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5deef8db1c971774080b8a4647dba21f84c61214a5891baeeb431d9f0f40a2c1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499428099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775441736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816788162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874664318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"60e3d1c01c9ccd0be42f525efe7b0eb8e2fb9ef4aa12ef5e5f9eb1d02376fd3c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3875704283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"60e3d1c01c9ccd0be42f525efe7b0eb8e2fb9ef4aa12ef5e5f9eb1d02376fd3c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810749461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"60e3d1c01c9ccd0be42f525efe7b0eb8e2fb9ef4aa12ef5e5f9eb1d02376fd3c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587123506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501932491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501210857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500668672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78ced8d1691dcc09a76703270781778b7ada7ec4616397081f73975eca3228fe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070832314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78ced8d1691dcc09a76703270781778b7ada7ec4616397081f73975eca3228fe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092313315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78ced8d1691dcc09a76703270781778b7ada7ec4616397081f73975eca3228fe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128891199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78fa565cfb6bbc2bd79844dbfec8854fa8759f077a2258f793c5398648d5222f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793696939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78fa565cfb6bbc2bd79844dbfec8854fa8759f077a2258f793c5398648d5222f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667329127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78fa565cfb6bbc2bd79844dbfec8854fa8759f077a2258f793c5398648d5222f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612153437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"7e2cda65cb0b8c2de02a53102ab27a981cd27008ce5be5ae95e4a393472b7a2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608251095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"7e2cda65cb0b8c2de02a53102ab27a981cd27008ce5be5ae95e4a393472b7a2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494663701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"7e2cda65cb0b8c2de02a53102ab27a981cd27008ce5be5ae95e4a393472b7a2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495133644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"8bbae492677b57778c0df09916eb6d0b4f9f776614a55efda43fb06f7ebc51be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079028611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"8bbae492677b57778c0df09916eb6d0b4f9f776614a55efda43fb06f7ebc51be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006155118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"8bbae492677b57778c0df09916eb6d0b4f9f776614a55efda43fb06f7ebc51be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34131114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424433721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399867707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3524622785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"adce5fb334dbde74c2272f01e353c670e8855f2ebe7f60ca798562b7507ad56b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831550275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"adce5fb334dbde74c2272f01e353c670e8855f2ebe7f60ca798562b7507ad56b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841349703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"adce5fb334dbde74c2272f01e353c670e8855f2ebe7f60ca798562b7507ad56b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885380273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b04f6aeb8f3f9be05df9e81a8d1b08ca73b0a1780641f62d271fd600d603494d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546012007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b04f6aeb8f3f9be05df9e81a8d1b08ca73b0a1780641f62d271fd600d603494d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553153287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b04f6aeb8f3f9be05df9e81a8d1b08ca73b0a1780641f62d271fd600d603494d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571951549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354943352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351984703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4399217881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303219846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266913782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514153019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255847139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251608262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b99cde44bf887959b2da15efc5f730789011e25782adac3bf20f2ef5e81b073a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062388188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b99cde44bf887959b2da15efc5f730789011e25782adac3bf20f2ef5e81b073a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075262788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b99cde44bf887959b2da15efc5f730789011e25782adac3bf20f2ef5e81b073a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085975561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"ba4369563a5038da71698e33c2f8393cf07d83b6115427b145051374d046afd8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664141386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"ba4369563a5038da71698e33c2f8393cf07d83b6115427b145051374d046afd8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748556292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"ba4369563a5038da71698e33c2f8393cf07d83b6115427b145051374d046afd8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711319315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bddb3c88ed316b4d4363d2ca5c5acbf165e0e1a254c8c42a64edf6cdacd16ee7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623260859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bddb3c88ed316b4d4363d2ca5c5acbf165e0e1a254c8c42a64edf6cdacd16ee7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519466325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bddb3c88ed316b4d4363d2ca5c5acbf165e0e1a254c8c42a64edf6cdacd16ee7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536807763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567840168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582113865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604883508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c35fcf7b563fb0e0f1b2bafb28de6cf49348fcc9eefad3910903bd08fdcbea2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509429783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c35fcf7b563fb0e0f1b2bafb28de6cf49348fcc9eefad3910903bd08fdcbea2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508168614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c35fcf7b563fb0e0f1b2bafb28de6cf49348fcc9eefad3910903bd08fdcbea2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510927853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429425385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4130969463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3833340466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536305643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552333779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600387652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d13164a14ead5bbbeebceb2c273af666cdfcf8d8c769d57fab9f7afbf13c6d8f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894027368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d13164a14ead5bbbeebceb2c273af666cdfcf8d8c769d57fab9f7afbf13c6d8f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922454762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d13164a14ead5bbbeebceb2c273af666cdfcf8d8c769d57fab9f7afbf13c6d8f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959388102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942294039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013312069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010926604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704247188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677510079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657653631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869664183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886481187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911344816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496126685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497115439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498907188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e705fa1f2a3f807ce3cdfb23788a4d3c0e4f86cfae6c8e13448400814af51772","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274783816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e705fa1f2a3f807ce3cdfb23788a4d3c0e4f86cfae6c8e13448400814af51772","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283753399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e705fa1f2a3f807ce3cdfb23788a4d3c0e4f86cfae6c8e13448400814af51772","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275731547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551033778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056692066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592072162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1978332551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280329572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794645681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2120287702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283875042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778668341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116437955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382107395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893032465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000463722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275855662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790486118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073514775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202329239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078852111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034650973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367264602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971374355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2140177828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275861683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799372974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138659722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344895029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083427085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038469171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324466124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896202933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995196259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174829122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750055037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225513605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407511933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981760116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312197612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461057616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953794088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2081207535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326341132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988056961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217242661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440193891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099676018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250524389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150223961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744715468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899695851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196556487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772338768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092560311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198738315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692831156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869741178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097692429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734963609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182496826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180829147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050431773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1806260907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167918183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846937723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2056832886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253556731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784858821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994514438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783156996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2019340453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320510198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188887364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969525695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115952042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720737639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082423904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207067896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1853059289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132919852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730441317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866604801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100919716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745611836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726195111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133419854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794304771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1854150202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137238052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737395437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210351424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279302824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706649851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801848161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160401788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794036588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895468561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245556696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879567407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917923202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199692864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838413141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1765688396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137274116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830961291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738286072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109319241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828100824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540521035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160246685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1883947974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371170432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924838848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524743973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1952151075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130773756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517829122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864922976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291857699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.454037701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212907183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343147347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512787855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058573347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338120785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4595868479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214429223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368064321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4454986107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313209795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436733602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1633529266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418977891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436399291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842614041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276829557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289015694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172110418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360784461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153540159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501709287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111055612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312128505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1683431713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217056575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357837253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625888753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216814528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438011567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408967413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3447229192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855610045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923161209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989962307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485037266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3782321199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4132077235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196068936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418166419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3780711738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968219489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012792506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308772698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875207033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948335716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051461997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960554731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261417447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3683305171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106173916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392742903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3786373569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032069215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233953097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423767932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568251273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244113423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1935172442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069134741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326210854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3737237502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322128993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424829442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3715853814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057542063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167526371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266414621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875396804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345759072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365625062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040607412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178408392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333712637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029197942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105145503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798164178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064313399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242793958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.348588663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301447911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041219322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080890768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302791328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015986514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012938125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973414887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998635945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054467032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2954942264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175275676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422117613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902616153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935681632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310576872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859549736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094401626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267561562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475899463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127142444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717746661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857274807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918114341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230235294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003251602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041742359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964132413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984613904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058789779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918546805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230523609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459571337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156516348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274553725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.420253865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4402066125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959226031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125686756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259511091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540304407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086910954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.487530938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085640819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886410059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213337075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307689604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609190765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236739587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466046303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310056833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009366968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024095589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729970699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471268471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195285846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951462807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905130504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812926206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298246474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292724726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189611121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4953391438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268423911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782786296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941300761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090948399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5237009716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4803856214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388143468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320572275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401414396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26290731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698019509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537516855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291405619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196309987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505257856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.382277869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251655328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184043348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1486104004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075778649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177852541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830922252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290808228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976638384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058209268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729358675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3715356033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667779452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498346722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001370931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1876801574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205388092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681539052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987662944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310881189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339262442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1400890441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903075694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903632983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906583545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903081717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903650256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905298922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1771968034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.198024165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307788502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097110098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086919656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1377920898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006899406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148469655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5714615788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979055559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086556018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374193609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903253881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903657987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907832646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902836607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903259336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904285704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903287059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903978893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090822628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903470259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905209467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911637658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110692939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206966077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363077198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905185699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907587072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918363482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020203462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042930832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111457942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506783089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526759993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591863452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902982076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903537642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090516763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902127963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902804784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906651164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299330108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386922754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637512914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902847648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903023967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904333668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5945510943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5306019036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4347938064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103469216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108237929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321011564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902694324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903881602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909202079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5464892883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4922299658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214069688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517974046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553053741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691099785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901665711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901823134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902252736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317602913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310421064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1390193677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902923598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903335827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904809906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531368829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1736268424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078834564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a67901002a226895b47278a52d5b429858dab5b056cade86b2525d6845b3d709","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164238168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a67901002a226895b47278a52d5b429858dab5b056cade86b2525d6845b3d709","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285193229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a67901002a226895b47278a52d5b429858dab5b056cade86b2525d6845b3d709","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1454012131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902878457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903155526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904407654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878009673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007439317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198556496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903026189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090356611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906383635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093564731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963877772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025353034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913282551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001828384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221647503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902754065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903430273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905110703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099502087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134938939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5975033903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903104808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903791938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907325371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639156382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670463333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766418288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902892511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903574914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906866201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903220245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904293899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090683311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903607974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905073957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909268207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570013535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1668708048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857025215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089869158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938146294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167465454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272067765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1462239065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816865287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902789038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903067876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903321809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901788989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902431219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904867279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.638910836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5793273239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1916838468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780309711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856582764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080840084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145738089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292375078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6030077113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877222669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698360431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602794425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065111428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894510471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322201074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835198824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264289558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432149842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"BEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967544032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"BEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285451122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"BEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745379269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896690095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251759935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592451284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861861502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707980279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520395272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890424736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711866478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495495806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894344358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799332331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627429374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848758225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706390764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557651009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897116085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275684211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3541631506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908175009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747782214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480988522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890632252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239377105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588469053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857110998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352583511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408785823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015510205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093977865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202613049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038032657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164723119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278889344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915583396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279718075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652630882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880178158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361617905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2395248453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969021616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233197979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515458221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089968877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831444655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308594385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051233416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799224618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656225232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30723755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767337509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560531227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287478162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721349104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531603598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132880293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708934275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493118437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830015082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419760022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362665532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28875291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217502438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632041557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118374804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313215087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552757941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870756087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757534131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581650486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874006531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327583803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584027637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123012354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709063669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514770958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001124392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892293597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783198298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883518191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249109144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501819407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929559958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278453351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622103184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919079436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796549588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611295109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918499549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810312709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648468638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876604504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328897143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491200274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816613406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685945614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3562255644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909640754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757306729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591304799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029469396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170638011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309513143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"PGR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167188032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"PGR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646876307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"PGR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438854567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855392723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363543702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242032041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"SCHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861829382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"SCHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275548517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"SCHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502802105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869673003},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723113065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559942421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914843909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769777079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605876078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TTWO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839604217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TTWO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715044572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TTWO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554504693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843332576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679420587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247785532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894101092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762967804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619611171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988301022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833013423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683066545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875282116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700685659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493692162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952624759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748400616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550970613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871632405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737029868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3517325492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212017828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195938596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062858126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616950411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1a8cf53a74b9cfc6614ad866389f9a29f69d8a73c64531f903846d29297f173f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050753135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1a8cf53a74b9cfc6614ad866389f9a29f69d8a73c64531f903846d29297f173f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051913697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763436912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769865629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844295471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06072981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4fe6c25f4f8dc413630dcb35adc40f81c42a748541f8aa61d79b03fc9a5bf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976956746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4fe6c25f4f8dc413630dcb35adc40f81c42a748541f8aa61d79b03fc9a5bf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331922223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"201ac64a00529b084a1a5599c91d1241d5df081a0860e630f28ee123978a0b05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079643836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"201ac64a00529b084a1a5599c91d1241d5df081a0860e630f28ee123978a0b05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988386719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551005288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556536563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"2f109c1b141224bb77aa48fe005a7ce9d7aca2934baf9e82121c8537ed7ba157","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507091647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"2f109c1b141224bb77aa48fe005a7ce9d7aca2934baf9e82121c8537ed7ba157","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505535787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619928995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507131982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3fcc16d757fd4ab8088ffbf74eee68a683aea0657b932d2aaa0848af268bbd93","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301979617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3fcc16d757fd4ab8088ffbf74eee68a683aea0657b932d2aaa0848af268bbd93","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3447814178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889769851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340901235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790493142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794826654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"594971c4da4cc1b0853cb4a66d66f18663649c2259bd9049d16c2d47ae830845","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187093355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"594971c4da4cc1b0853cb4a66d66f18663649c2259bd9049d16c2d47ae830845","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224239643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487129265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487130695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822850056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655887846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"60aeaebf9803b4e98ad4fd1e8b47f425915b2082ecd4c47482f809c07149f525","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600375392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"60aeaebf9803b4e98ad4fd1e8b47f425915b2082ecd4c47482f809c07149f525","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607004402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631664663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517520503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956279951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978378954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"78aa5c08a83e880c46c669735f49d554fe938bab17a200571b7ed39d57061af9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634771081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"78aa5c08a83e880c46c669735f49d554fe938bab17a200571b7ed39d57061af9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644085744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"79692c91ff95fc298034fb68b40e5e1348a2edc4dea49289cb42fa178b4f4353","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061890562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"79692c91ff95fc298034fb68b40e5e1348a2edc4dea49289cb42fa178b4f4353","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063709589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7b16ac49c3f4618236fd8ffaaabad8a50eb0d60c8e689c364e7618d5bb066d09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063161714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7b16ac49c3f4618236fd8ffaaabad8a50eb0d60c8e689c364e7618d5bb066d09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744501009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7e999232e3c6975548145b07f2768444af543cf52d517136fd77088b289b03f2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764674863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7e999232e3c6975548145b07f2768444af543cf52d517136fd77088b289b03f2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778659804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"80636d98db7db43707218b6dc1014d9770571f8604159128f43094c5f17e44e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877567195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"80636d98db7db43707218b6dc1014d9770571f8604159128f43094c5f17e44e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887596178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494903046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491971526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488132001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488283088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ebd4baa35766dcb4178ca130850fa107eb8b0c31bf52964a5704c62d31679ae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617663702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ebd4baa35766dcb4178ca130850fa107eb8b0c31bf52964a5704c62d31679ae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503210554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ec4363b05a62fa005feb9e7256c84a514fe6ffa599889e6590d4a9f427a991e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076233794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ec4363b05a62fa005feb9e7256c84a514fe6ffa599889e6590d4a9f427a991e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529393373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"98b628df321b43a81fb84bb161012e955a6f0679054d7f5fb63fe768200dd2e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495741609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"98b628df321b43a81fb84bb161012e955a6f0679054d7f5fb63fe768200dd2e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495132574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"99effe55927fdda5ff71f38875f3e17c0b286059ab7f34de1b2a6fbbe8ad906b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742798803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"99effe55927fdda5ff71f38875f3e17c0b286059ab7f34de1b2a6fbbe8ad906b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757527027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a28a1139cdb6fb817651be872c09d4607133b7e4ec4bafa018a7e5e0b23dad87","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487175972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a28a1139cdb6fb817651be872c09d4607133b7e4ec4bafa018a7e5e0b23dad87","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487415543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a31cef507e61853411ec79a024f7a700d8ffdcf63fea111b4aed6d5c095536c4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621442086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a31cef507e61853411ec79a024f7a700d8ffdcf63fea111b4aed6d5c095536c4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509775776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495329611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494825405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213476704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342110558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505863096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515390102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787438255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801595979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720672656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733409846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643447599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619716725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"c60ceb20ec94de9fc1625df8d7710c1c0b775b8be102d3bb2668ccc9e0ac3fd3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061984473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"c60ceb20ec94de9fc1625df8d7710c1c0b775b8be102d3bb2668ccc9e0ac3fd3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501770852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736437118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732847042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853390102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860758615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3670119974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581333947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614439374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495021641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762069123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818920519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e07b01bc6c3b45240c9361e57d0e69bfcf83edda464527199ab85e13b90ddf50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3566638105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e07b01bc6c3b45240c9361e57d0e69bfcf83edda464527199ab85e13b90ddf50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833312275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550244943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057710185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762099129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562005668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e63fd3a4f000586ceb18e2040dfe6a10077ef14d4936305dc15e8c3b36db8c4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608273521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e63fd3a4f000586ceb18e2040dfe6a10077ef14d4936305dc15e8c3b36db8c4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609204764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"f8ca99b4de1c397ccb77af3a72dd7e9f7dd65feae7bd2fc5c9d18d5d66f8ef19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723228706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"f8ca99b4de1c397ccb77af3a72dd7e9f7dd65feae7bd2fc5c9d18d5d66f8ef19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706433731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"fe04b3beca8f9c8781c85ce5db7b2b6c3f4b661bb30e095645b9dd4a16f97fce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625274124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"fe04b3beca8f9c8781c85ce5db7b2b6c3f4b661bb30e095645b9dd4a16f97fce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650765566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273598219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860724122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6293142428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836716698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185099238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824479776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1236957694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761907683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205362599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07280001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246109205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791789862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1222496188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838754172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1619462719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794859512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940401204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1401280272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850113791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348479568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993251009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120602423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731338424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152377802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755335032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963803555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211130406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15753222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891361453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1368731723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770930955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870736074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165615951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778489792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461603648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002156291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605132789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864309491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422379487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764219694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1470793874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812910254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351588408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078903705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436904923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766585021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540930874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802103866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334357535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787241104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6298978412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118996059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1592350903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052061027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570765388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990361535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1604560303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795491297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565951509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831872937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121721995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811467813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461266236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769372751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049926109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777216883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831872816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1865939214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4964018826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1962086019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582928707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.181212748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866504114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831455056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310309634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1793269563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4321162238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233225925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711563662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827207808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262252566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1870606072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1639197665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156338643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427016102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984664926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1880241181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255086362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1647011932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427647484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4047895698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541768061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307798899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667537011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102817238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413557064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816524227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970134044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671445095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288639528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049229717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282052756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357237205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822819589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387137662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3332083075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101369796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887638344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917869539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3943612431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4459433025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609953242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252036006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714920465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923034688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865142448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293238368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056488184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114987211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298907808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518193894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937970177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786273618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370318281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775557464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085575699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303205102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989452193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943030127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898515522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307005893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856116009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278074087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931440261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026228391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996357537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221941945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246642894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336617855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862798748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305062269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329444613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042667679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112856749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414904924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261406564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196356111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179075993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3344812291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376694907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383850799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950831239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784879027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801571275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386832443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496637423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3834366851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1560065732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1685555519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2031082625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106231489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082204553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096566505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059921411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965765707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136807551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982845869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117382814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356013678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595883516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213095344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4543900917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644016923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251485433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418837422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094247024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206660314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394656111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4229922297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375134295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4010110403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289767467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902554672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087862938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822190681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704646486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601214918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269884632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587326168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3955147551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086644323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843790916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850375556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598172306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359151356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221845856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300422134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943796761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4785875259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4581526767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4233889978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4504692105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462549545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645672331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122969382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715921692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510478972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913001533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326337815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306761845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980595319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947057122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186621581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179067113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641457604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453334429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447948094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179077615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1954446975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.517191716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4948625256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4477027385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969998393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012132344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989710435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933837706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026342195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985976276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250303199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480359824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524500204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477845786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277367631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043120346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336526698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667236485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226579623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206388318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429349855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916954055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917533607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920009914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915714976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916528499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918552159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917023105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921932845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933803433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08932326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049286628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426540216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916586949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091673576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091761932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917250496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917718967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919510827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916619417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916910425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917846801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363966218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5453467498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4690626646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091671504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917016648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917965454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971855829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928091174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957473333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360675545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431425321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1837263905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021714067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158814935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384268789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916621303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917053437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917940887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915536616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916149736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917562666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098717705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216245865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535449451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916764052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917297617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918723294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165578124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123848233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469304652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916619798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916969951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918601461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916634047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917029387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918164905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729999706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786752036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970950077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916572258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916861213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918021837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916574149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917013677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917919705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933330437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059548954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122668677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241521007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5380342496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4650065979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153176366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6275739363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861605702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1513829515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5904533642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234716263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091557116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916436458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091998307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916974061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918664259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924763061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8000be71eeeeba1faf969b8bffe6b925896c5b2b91a17186432ba5e1c4246a0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997798323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8000be71eeeeba1faf969b8bffe6b925896c5b2b91a17186432ba5e1c4246a0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050058564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8000be71eeeeba1faf969b8bffe6b925896c5b2b91a17186432ba5e1c4246a0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221495605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916586897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916777381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917814105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916632147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916962993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918122189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916483098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916636914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916970282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936478135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7105487724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6530429702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113717845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566593587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035898574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982237207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112348741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321738293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916675472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916874542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091837137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129675081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6357695109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5463706014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073906686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156862474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275867362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960023829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149429233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.55881589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916938459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917655527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919813453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121662731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374680943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1674931369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916585473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917184188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918893797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915334484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091540354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915545009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091839269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961393037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094932431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916667977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916967737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917979573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116710099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1906512308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238383081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288820274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1485828365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924322564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002332318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183216414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498372214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065477769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6315693384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1734029034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885814197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768559304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620455308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858634994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324841947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587477521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889016475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331552234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600497106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887333039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640416859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366256199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815996835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654462126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429861517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930190445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727689208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519550245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977130046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867002642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762477972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886463243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726554344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538057744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962995018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124330179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274160449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831538158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721729547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545964278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871937062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696894217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488912702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832637977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682711446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507192455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860823973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729069472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559082322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100757746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705077032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522006484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900392027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274620783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576376583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850190085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303945621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566591556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892364887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774823004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619732377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911093156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759523994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575858874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889267303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736541816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532228591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874313062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328614382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522836945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287774601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266705456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506258289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971574108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319662219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620814186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860603434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301417666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546252973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835555341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663119864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240215154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289827625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233926208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643915243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877996248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225762872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650249874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967050151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103302467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215026514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922000418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792179854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612960428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127140484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720423334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255867746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771922481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34261119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730745855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853044551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3332380975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3632629402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839025967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319433673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524555986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879347059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304798425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504092996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055505326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184203609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378635667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839021637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657526154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447978393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860050642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746972738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576570036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872369717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756387407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608462897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093029033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259392566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471958536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286623098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742153917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576701394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288286834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214417583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612489686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879276341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227058583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345729862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867218263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223709114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428181164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176080383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356561162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673186869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919281438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223609388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343455284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857091182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698829985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477933674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286334745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275840081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598900727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212095335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444909279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393240736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313339067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316894204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460790808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886539246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258522315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480731094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"045c57d5793d26c9d89b86a4603e3e41960ff1f4a2a7a787116d4d36a7bd8f62","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512615442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"045c57d5793d26c9d89b86a4603e3e41960ff1f4a2a7a787116d4d36a7bd8f62","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524987152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"08a1e74afb494a3ded4c449ac9967e7f997bb7193ed58e536b81f2746b8ae8cb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559919339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"08a1e74afb494a3ded4c449ac9967e7f997bb7193ed58e536b81f2746b8ae8cb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339467815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"0cff82cd36b23adbe9c35fb926ab6ed4906e44e533bc76c30a6f5fcb8ab61a61","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367467799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"0cff82cd36b23adbe9c35fb926ab6ed4906e44e533bc76c30a6f5fcb8ab61a61","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378521958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1639e296125d45437753b90e3635a3de44b52698dcabbf845246d903d881305d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4926708812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1639e296125d45437753b90e3635a3de44b52698dcabbf845246d903d881305d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4941869855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"16c419ceef0cb873100e0869345461e732f0c70279c881823c71fdc2982b006f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497482172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"16c419ceef0cb873100e0869345461e732f0c70279c881823c71fdc2982b006f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497976056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"17d6e7e67b02ad4eb3290404db86ef0ab2b1b4d72a4a8f1c24bd29a32f19939e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516488488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"17d6e7e67b02ad4eb3290404db86ef0ab2b1b4d72a4a8f1c24bd29a32f19939e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530200904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660371191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550357759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677808144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699326518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076717668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063501356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2bd094d09ecf8f79dcfd3f910631eb7951b881ce174a95694ddbfea4c8d59f14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899850413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2bd094d09ecf8f79dcfd3f910631eb7951b881ce174a95694ddbfea4c8d59f14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926306175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905673186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800191822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e32b1509f2c6933db4ccdbae308a7dbd327673866d272cfce6efec3416cc5b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558642644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e32b1509f2c6933db4ccdbae308a7dbd327673866d272cfce6efec3416cc5b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3773612883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"30e33d123e0da894be67440a03f9d04103fbb778ced8b745993ee57444d7f194","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627384596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"30e33d123e0da894be67440a03f9d04103fbb778ced8b745993ee57444d7f194","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06327143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3da7e51404041a894414b3f269f468c815cc7fc2d85df0deef8ad617127637da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549578372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3da7e51404041a894414b3f269f468c815cc7fc2d85df0deef8ad617127637da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557685403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3dee259133a61fead4da14e8856999b9d2e7c9565038752a44fbea531fe073f2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626727999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3dee259133a61fead4da14e8856999b9d2e7c9565038752a44fbea531fe073f2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501360413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3fd7ab1f3b3f9db6da3013bc661874cd5806085a48b2575758122465e3e313b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785033074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3fd7ab1f3b3f9db6da3013bc661874cd5806085a48b2575758122465e3e313b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080474013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"404bb1c055ceac91316e9ee545f31d0b8fc2afd426c543895cd4ff864f8f87ba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629022121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"404bb1c055ceac91316e9ee545f31d0b8fc2afd426c543895cd4ff864f8f87ba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629512205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4573457b7b86db4374a450870bd55e53857127b745bc94c9395e655877e6a9a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276192025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4573457b7b86db4374a450870bd55e53857127b745bc94c9395e655877e6a9a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321695156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4bd14c0b5fa5eb275f732e4c9556bdaaae3219f3a152dd8e6555d62e67d8cc28","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526305813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4bd14c0b5fa5eb275f732e4c9556bdaaae3219f3a152dd8e6555d62e67d8cc28","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542811253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510100258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513140167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497023719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497025314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638304273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645414719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5ca405aed0a18361ce45a9840f54139258f736ab3323a2b0d5a8d5b029986c09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6865690647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5ca405aed0a18361ce45a9840f54139258f736ab3323a2b0d5a8d5b029986c09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6489719207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878222292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881206783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255905415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115200158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6644410da1ca5a0de7f2ba1e28365ba42faa407db54f8b6b7e1d4d02e5d8e73f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639842501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6644410da1ca5a0de7f2ba1e28365ba42faa407db54f8b6b7e1d4d02e5d8e73f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653107361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6a03f90818843ecc1208164eb0ec51b8fbd9f8ef78ce992bcb7faa4b1a9907ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369258775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6a03f90818843ecc1208164eb0ec51b8fbd9f8ef78ce992bcb7faa4b1a9907ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441096073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6df623c79fda03ce7d022dacfa34aab06da979351449d1d323a48cb9697a57f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508995563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6df623c79fda03ce7d022dacfa34aab06da979351449d1d323a48cb9697a57f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508581837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771514274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784158764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"7487d61f13baa3bf2e639bd2f48994f57f5713eb2a67e1a5742bead5339cc864","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502028226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"7487d61f13baa3bf2e639bd2f48994f57f5713eb2a67e1a5742bead5339cc864","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506453702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"93ae965d27aebfdcc59bb8410a814c6c6d94839008031ea6c7afafca4d9309b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425876179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"93ae965d27aebfdcc59bb8410a814c6c6d94839008031ea6c7afafca4d9309b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497756114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"981bef3585c494c4603867cc402d6c9ef056c37cfee24acec243d94f82485b1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055818602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"981bef3585c494c4603867cc402d6c9ef056c37cfee24acec243d94f82485b1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551461422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528407099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546696337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"9c7beb65b6c4b3457faf09d8c99f27bd6062a193c9091e6b2ae6a53f9a8d34cd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151088823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"9c7beb65b6c4b3457faf09d8c99f27bd6062a193c9091e6b2ae6a53f9a8d34cd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112301356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758953601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628672689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a8a7fc86a269ca15ea738b118bb42567102d889fa73913b812e4f89c853da9af","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746750425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a8a7fc86a269ca15ea738b118bb42567102d889fa73913b812e4f89c853da9af","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370014536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bc8c8f107eac1ade990ff5abc2020a8126ec5cb3c8897db8ed32de5a96d25e22","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542933717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bc8c8f107eac1ade990ff5abc2020a8126ec5cb3c8897db8ed32de5a96d25e22","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561129385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bf9abc2476086723f72539ca9db3d73e1261aa7de447646ead8e5c27b2cca27a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500141544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bf9abc2476086723f72539ca9db3d73e1261aa7de447646ead8e5c27b2cca27a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507449933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0684c0b09437d77fe266f52a8b25e428038e678ef9fa3545cfd8e197ba6c325","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573480039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0684c0b09437d77fe266f52a8b25e428038e678ef9fa3545cfd8e197ba6c325","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055378837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0f9f6a66c4c0ac4b5888673ca374b35992ccd55c8162ac9de743ce4fe266a50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081912136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0f9f6a66c4c0ac4b5888673ca374b35992ccd55c8162ac9de743ce4fe266a50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080685598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ca33d5830fc9a1a48825e23bd6cc813b91b919a8ff212282741659dcd9f5141a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521499844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ca33d5830fc9a1a48825e23bd6cc813b91b919a8ff212282741659dcd9f5141a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522567023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6270174504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370340063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d9435db4467e2f0be5f782375a27aede5dcda4004b6d2d85aa5032af75687012","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674020778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d9435db4467e2f0be5f782375a27aede5dcda4004b6d2d85aa5032af75687012","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563205467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527616068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533515231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943260097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006541475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e2d26a4708e70f3569952805fc2ed4b79f4bd6ecfd8c61e2e4e1a760e619caac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515028849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e2d26a4708e70f3569952805fc2ed4b79f4bd6ecfd8c61e2e4e1a760e619caac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521598742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640215795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639701429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554729037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567799275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e911c0badd1c86c49d1710512dedaadfba405894ad853fb06bd98fbc6b01c139","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649515017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e911c0badd1c86c49d1710512dedaadfba405894ad853fb06bd98fbc6b01c139","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673701449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ebd72561491f441d98dbf704f97d8a7eebcfc43370106755d009bca95a1157f4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511130837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ebd72561491f441d98dbf704f97d8a7eebcfc43370106755d009bca95a1157f4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512716219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1819730799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963865246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290560155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249563512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791516556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151781578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1771972964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117021293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396317919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558246335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4662981717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281495268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.447443308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245148498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4599770603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198666245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904804979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200407175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058933796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324057884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210464718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214001239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127451013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235146383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133696742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131131996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5662669326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176779886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.456356217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268633954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4327544799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317592082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891471422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144280654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070847456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1251809887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5225906019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036249275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218428747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250146677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5545514746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039984596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430071717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155574422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5336328428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999459176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5011755681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167057262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4544262032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1608855806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4402084486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505515331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5048207288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210835185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117213905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386244408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123606661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384259037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5143251253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271013437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1936422433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169464664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127012143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176376884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5001114652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431306888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735900534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956601095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791213057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512244328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683580863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985118838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558677517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247628806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381900155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1903054863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4221208114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1828886717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691018662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294216235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396454071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097393744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3604212121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292304712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170512884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746612188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238900937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4970742032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037982419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1744085523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183908932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827234968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711460067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382154039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242187325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347465034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830415628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268336858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950640438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907347459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134065961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346925687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195040486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464537728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091700452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011745719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068382075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932572084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171092165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756527262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217460657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398539812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113557737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328030147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903779014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157790533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844479503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302051218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006451317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987052191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931987996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053099793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652004277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403518597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930057964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118205895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486581935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164987809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917757233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294319839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248436708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564508025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1702717563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179193547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921689052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116560221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306153683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026646067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274463484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602481126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914437158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940835403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308768885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428729086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770561439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564948731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4537162653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126681686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692573986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1776434995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1875696741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850333067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277817736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894730368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820415783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134384053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4227865295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838836153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497335827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335371867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322155866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884331174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228007373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328014692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199374551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287685657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873139282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274908498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287482414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914591196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5332467819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4962205381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997819373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063264826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183452879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549099144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4212762299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376718374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917890458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850012716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521619141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363455725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4370389353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785748407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934468713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868590011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894960241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1989378206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096952428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970151132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339819119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386983533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969614271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970510711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7642451138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7143850522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096819358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968616423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970154872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973424287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196905155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1329870902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482417776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1561165503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135369808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334186762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099631752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099949165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969418981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970058543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456829933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.156341348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969300333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969781273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969459644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969887277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969407421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097015443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4ec5d08b99659843a99747d85dbf544392876326027e06e94c7d454f15bedbc4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7806766129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4ec5d08b99659843a99747d85dbf544392876326027e06e94c7d454f15bedbc4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7079560352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969407421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970201531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968533206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969313882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969314756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096942635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969693756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970636518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316223747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498965729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955079514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177407067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906825061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053042639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969365837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969683354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969736925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09704323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969718496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971039221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947449097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056253609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097004802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970669812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102068343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131961968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968321461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968795737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132316754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257176117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642382721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713379902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968036179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968354276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7182258231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.669655952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969669542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970989724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1381943363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.138619395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6458360499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5745678424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969301602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969376428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7721806491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6810627918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313710247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1549176477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070781933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268200799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969260906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969620267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969407011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969793001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968086334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968560521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6872462733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6404664264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203379208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285495821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6553768156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6059358557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6824050826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6454999816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6402045128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5717055713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900903163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724395056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792515074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594411465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223826948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433886174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950974068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225632749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091707641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243051877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285153108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745959281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877637789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209474327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870726075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701350496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106598204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215240265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857470133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255865519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116994021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266713946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078480064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107948466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853947709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271204108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288952564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257704615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154982071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728720278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089416409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750536001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863154473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300280796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905497363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741266044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927417728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860555992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912670989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848119201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179818023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270648108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290581879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787334109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141940296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276236536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106332571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767520895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286660265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729017285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123885036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369354946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812761981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355323091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788467864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612491876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939912415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191421273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073565612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170393567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150368782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776572558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818311255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719157641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864608971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725326405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142929482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267661311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867709622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272164468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875650069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267949687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937074401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794162176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276364158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432359646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174327551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338952073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096801643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244594236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066320606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766270624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839367624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696302002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186298876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350402893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118271674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270362314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128351763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707866302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081166552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168339764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128627797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295324162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287289704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759617827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814377613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370216881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"076a766cf8e85cd5dc367bf989166be71e8458249368a451b7893bc1d0f83f45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636228079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"076a766cf8e85cd5dc367bf989166be71e8458249368a451b7893bc1d0f83f45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480266908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669417321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066197917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807799954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502702455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"16b6b2d6b0524288e77d850f3fd49e0262f80c3c4db87aef8629f11f65ba7341","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107967203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"16b6b2d6b0524288e77d850f3fd49e0262f80c3c4db87aef8629f11f65ba7341","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066689902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"17bf9a8162c4f43f85c30166cb1c89010cbbcc40d493cbd0c7adfa8c3cd9bc71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791557297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"17bf9a8162c4f43f85c30166cb1c89010cbbcc40d493cbd0c7adfa8c3cd9bc71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653510307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300560067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021400135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1bef4564f4cfb6584c8cc1cac8c89c57e2e82600d00cc58e17be6d33cee7b7f4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862960248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1bef4564f4cfb6584c8cc1cac8c89c57e2e82600d00cc58e17be6d33cee7b7f4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837133514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491953818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494424848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1fbf577afda5b0891151aa0174330d3ec91de24c9a6c881445dba3f6f314dc81","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771198748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1fbf577afda5b0891151aa0174330d3ec91de24c9a6c881445dba3f6f314dc81","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466422112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"23ab30f9734da7edbc4838a872fa2ef0274774b65efee6f92d0d4a998c4933a0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4135624821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"23ab30f9734da7edbc4838a872fa2ef0274774b65efee6f92d0d4a998c4933a0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299890917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"269a3a5bd70fe9e4af011b3f26eeb112df0385df596a67b3a938a32ce2495721","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478193424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"269a3a5bd70fe9e4af011b3f26eeb112df0385df596a67b3a938a32ce2495721","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478389119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"28478119ab181fd9019368d78d144aa8dfa662f84671a89e75ac643445c21285","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085615505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"28478119ab181fd9019368d78d144aa8dfa662f84671a89e75ac643445c21285","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080123979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064599595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488651433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841997857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357454871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431021933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451257751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"35ccb22ea8b8d2aa9fdabeaccae262c3fc1dc26fb72a2a4657e37aa73b5cbf9c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492029812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"35ccb22ea8b8d2aa9fdabeaccae262c3fc1dc26fb72a2a4657e37aa73b5cbf9c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494844729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"39df714ca36db283593daf16352f0520ad6c2f25800f99688c2fe0ee1c16e297","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299250941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"39df714ca36db283593daf16352f0520ad6c2f25800f99688c2fe0ee1c16e297","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888144798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4218b41e75468427fadcd2d225a4fb238b8c17a230ee2f0d95875a8eb4c1c88a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956295552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4218b41e75468427fadcd2d225a4fb238b8c17a230ee2f0d95875a8eb4c1c88a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830318646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946637124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790425887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4dec27704b5d0da5f083e0f663099b6fe28910c035902a5a657d5e84f18e3cb5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201706835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4dec27704b5d0da5f083e0f663099b6fe28910c035902a5a657d5e84f18e3cb5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352343146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007110554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285070991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113648197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144558919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643930267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643789619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"7fc4c84931b8311d58d4aca5e99bc870c33882baf0d7081a655e430f9068a07d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679590808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"7fc4c84931b8311d58d4aca5e99bc870c33882baf0d7081a655e430f9068a07d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684906054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952619119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065834557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635542573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479394821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"92615fedcb5c96dfece1802922933becf94b8c2b85ec2939f3167693f69f0da3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965285776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"92615fedcb5c96dfece1802922933becf94b8c2b85ec2939f3167693f69f0da3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966237807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479581164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479586165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"af9470738a635cd334f0f515ac570b58624fd0529608095787e369493d8159c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645109529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"af9470738a635cd334f0f515ac570b58624fd0529608095787e369493d8159c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645754635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664945282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051026117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062564837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644421067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c38e4a81bad91c72d15836582bcc3db9787c08aa7ae315dc59f8eb3a88ba961d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805276415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c38e4a81bad91c72d15836582bcc3db9787c08aa7ae315dc59f8eb3a88ba961d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840412176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c443a68b7d144e27d2c5b174b5c0e061bc59977d05a33d5538f63066d25ea62d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848552886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c443a68b7d144e27d2c5b174b5c0e061bc59977d05a33d5538f63066d25ea62d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860933041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c7a353d94b2e02cba4c52dcf69591f7aa3f53070585c4a8df34f6c5dedd3a0da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516879536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c7a353d94b2e02cba4c52dcf69591f7aa3f53070585c4a8df34f6c5dedd3a0da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051488259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c9194e8bb2c6498cfd5cfbe0dda6ad9abc96f2bad238376ba1ec184684012785","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840554075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c9194e8bb2c6498cfd5cfbe0dda6ad9abc96f2bad238376ba1ec184684012785","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861182457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195576659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242658129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802272179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797261359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cf205a4d2778a0dbd770c811f5a3c033d597ff71ae5d55f318ca9317070ec1fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4018075062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cf205a4d2778a0dbd770c811f5a3c033d597ff71ae5d55f318ca9317070ec1fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408725778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"d1987bf8e68d672699f241cec5bff86f857b524493f8bebeba5696655291fdfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675003806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"d1987bf8e68d672699f241cec5bff86f857b524493f8bebeba5696655291fdfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692124738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"d7e8a91dc6cc636691572f76f5e5ab6e621ff811ede5e221c869eb81e1784ba4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034822663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"d7e8a91dc6cc636691572f76f5e5ab6e621ff811ede5e221c869eb81e1784ba4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038280105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1415276744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102789958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705625497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252785635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"e40b9081df9711358970d6902d6f6bff35cb6597f758c0f16752e2e387a80c1f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907099791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"e40b9081df9711358970d6902d6f6bff35cb6597f758c0f16752e2e387a80c1f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299272508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096047911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081213604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483718749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483635654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651173655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506288175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649774046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505939838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fc8c89612c160995d9bf5c352fd9aa5c7959b467eab0b5ee94994be4f1854e0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277266723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fc8c89612c160995d9bf5c352fd9aa5c7959b467eab0b5ee94994be4f1854e0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215271559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fe1798e96797bd884e6b2b9c4561c59cb0eb2a9a3911b42b6958cdcf9badc5cd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635602514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fe1798e96797bd884e6b2b9c4561c59cb0eb2a9a3911b42b6958cdcf9badc5cd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635602533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"ff0e19f8da2c05da5995eb6b145301092ae9f6991d0ff1a4ca84b8562163383c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492203834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"ff0e19f8da2c05da5995eb6b145301092ae9f6991d0ff1a4ca84b8562163383c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502286112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4654022664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342636396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4269804812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183365907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288353346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315506948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4492892727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191949814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387998306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5901446359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4892997542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198300231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.422180263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1322633116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4185772138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6270756912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3978689873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6149871275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3917914311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290096932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508202275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5738833062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461373956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418976736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.412533742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5913791509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.406003888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6437409236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4065255034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6123365294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399996427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631344296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.381403941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214310665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165260073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6533487489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458164165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5515345296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859424533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352354085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4151336845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171505881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692544971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6434096193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4156270076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291536826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600149123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1583653369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666143388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502238309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37281415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467492621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.339353285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461571679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987711813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6222786532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.339595119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5562714582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.38188364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1506396813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932158741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1971428717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890940418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113553994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088709093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1600805236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4368321058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240322746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772558346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270351004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.404276661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681793465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704773693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720174758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506116121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462194959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946886345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4458865128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3903442889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164549077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3640272159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212966596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230583372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1703508065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697459993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912292297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4070521161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5300410313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267322956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4923411001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768646468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901554424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491765928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861447921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133867587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029037899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045208386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361521617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032555945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252140164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303804053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866995798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952583824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240319225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895989169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850227716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981561221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147357692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011517681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192880109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317588771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711279677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309921012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830011312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002202459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924358711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911786297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326215884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020053634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116481622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842674794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012967463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965422645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869605037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914011429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914917789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026144822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016495572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020436041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930113134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065471883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041414964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899580334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620688534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602562017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586190123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752537315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805411682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993431602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745334173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709041059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120036505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199472832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866713744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798221545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334082311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610493179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239157492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475890025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903378276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890685021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209326966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555933646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892425303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828874537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857339536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746301122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937308247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819064272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232093914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445879766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991980248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920117536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970759575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249047756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373112427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648667591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945850116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677048577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618194885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825237867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982921741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098498582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263101168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3902726831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4268748871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867268956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869431493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848785442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785492496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30845904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093263295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4215107206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4051060218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037718287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056756099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.435310925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958872866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639270487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433736559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5374045009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5094042884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069830899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31231906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042153385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043530486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040283135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040868907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104215526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043222485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041843959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104279189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301442142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461843441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073342868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116862349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10419035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043158951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097283668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119823772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118490895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186573308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052293173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077618575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049153902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053912182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482516505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1724609108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129871402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245472152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042297784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043008544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042014369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042462361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269796549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351427461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1916811379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5008300212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100239505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.127006513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047126075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050865457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042279031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043159819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041344059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042097488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041871864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042802885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1449342017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541684032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040405598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041537034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1371891193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483284457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893058716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101691715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1643310695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808962855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803649484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210107325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041797077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042469218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1604036169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173674633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1413085447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1497349263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042230273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043157944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183298396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321958631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041655241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041846573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978451684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051901227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1626511065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957065263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040419976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040944437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333197974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467969446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180433944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455301817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042169044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043326915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306193546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1513664438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042232148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043304355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106771632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137040186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040671892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041414514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1928732493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155269636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051644066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6259735001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045278272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047096089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124225585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317382255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042035891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043424012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867688354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709012359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104575421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777832565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315824775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688505316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163599564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349830399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090795828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811964892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170215926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277169107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886346112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319284672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126378645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275022335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308084781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779128397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286882728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231796867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240893102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584270581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887128084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278985709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127391339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663777485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887128872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28421429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894628222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739929996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28820476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803266088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972816896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229121325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186766462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671914675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314518992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264022809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102001609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759358758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165053353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669612691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888650871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194572641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852887673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801627454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814458511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320873132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"INVH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160583286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"INVH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657533944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159048551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360950336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"J","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116620062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"J","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687224189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090274229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319842043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290092657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160990886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135839572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217443394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756753325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624472817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321383125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341239189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881669713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282685354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119496734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307902876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889528485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810256823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041688969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863801556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051645829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741354944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104667166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685191237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"Q","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842478571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"Q","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250612756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316997919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334360049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061998505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280931085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976271387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122549882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883314093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764056791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073017994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734239191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282073262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763618412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065364733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731999724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919470326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738752606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101334833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781567884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781413134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340934145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875998811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850977334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"067d6bc7368cb2bd9fe467fc454195ec3fd4be9f02bed5ad8add9831958e7b3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068226444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"067d6bc7368cb2bd9fe467fc454195ec3fd4be9f02bed5ad8add9831958e7b3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053546412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506550161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050630137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1784da1104ec84d78b7f5a3c7d96663dfb9314efd03c0e4f309bbd0a82627584","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010763648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1784da1104ec84d78b7f5a3c7d96663dfb9314efd03c0e4f309bbd0a82627584","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981790772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680736066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676809177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721712783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764963624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"258df82bd2c2f5df173d04e4611b32e241085fbf17f8fc7e9d8ac63cb136a928","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521542675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"258df82bd2c2f5df173d04e4611b32e241085fbf17f8fc7e9d8ac63cb136a928","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528584299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662227411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506019318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"2a2be14f826701770214c8187c279ca151a81d2aabf965b940a1b1f6abdb7816","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871729561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"2a2be14f826701770214c8187c279ca151a81d2aabf965b940a1b1f6abdb7816","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885087226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849842097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1761878299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676912312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678141264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"38c40d8efc89323b215a80082c57c7c5a0c36970f4d13e86e220d93131e2d2e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507990247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"38c40d8efc89323b215a80082c57c7c5a0c36970f4d13e86e220d93131e2d2e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508344049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526422013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526902726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"416217168e26a566103147484dc779d9c9b11710d1cb2a7a44fdfd3f9cd77a00","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909026151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"416217168e26a566103147484dc779d9c9b11710d1cb2a7a44fdfd3f9cd77a00","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588601114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974466793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506395673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273889153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227375902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054371578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540223801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883222389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915238263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"6281aeb88beb15d8d948de823cd27f027438ad2cdf3e201c66d5538d255d109b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426382906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"6281aeb88beb15d8d948de823cd27f027438ad2cdf3e201c66d5538d255d109b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280047037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831810209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527590329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"743a1e6ab44f20fe5ccfb2b517fa6030e4342c4aead6b2b8c9fcea4b7fbcfdec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067385709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"743a1e6ab44f20fe5ccfb2b517fa6030e4342c4aead6b2b8c9fcea4b7fbcfdec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1448175644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"75f25111fc03218ff78c2dd0a34e5c9005892a4f9fdcc61defbcf7b518acc72b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698099537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"75f25111fc03218ff78c2dd0a34e5c9005892a4f9fdcc61defbcf7b518acc72b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069964042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179260302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977150914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"7740084dce9fcf0a52fcaf648518e1071fe646705e2ee0c325437f829e032339","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818978737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"7740084dce9fcf0a52fcaf648518e1071fe646705e2ee0c325437f829e032339","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066402208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8464de7daca44ee3fa040f57cc25c3a797d4a2706664d3bba47d37dab3e71f68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519445869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8464de7daca44ee3fa040f57cc25c3a797d4a2706664d3bba47d37dab3e71f68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519258341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"84c73bbd34df256d08bf604148024579180e9c0a93f261e92f7b1643fb5dfb19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730231054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"84c73bbd34df256d08bf604148024579180e9c0a93f261e92f7b1643fb5dfb19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058891179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856351114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568996518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8c1f2aa24cb0dbd017b9fe81a70b88b1eca7ed5a21f737fda85cab7b887ed118","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514510716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8c1f2aa24cb0dbd017b9fe81a70b88b1eca7ed5a21f737fda85cab7b887ed118","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513074874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678071877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528833033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523037395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539858022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6590938227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152262126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052980222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1591933589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"b6b94782abcfab02fe0a702c1c6c49bd0159082a2146365e799c3e392d04b7c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679493985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"b6b94782abcfab02fe0a702c1c6c49bd0159082a2146365e799c3e392d04b7c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053387886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"b7a88ced1bd731cc171e607ec34b7535fb839173a03d3c50baa9a138561b0720","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833699894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"b7a88ced1bd731cc171e607ec34b7535fb839173a03d3c50baa9a138561b0720","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687810349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ba27c9200490504ebaae900240859026badbda014cdc594cb525be4b0b4775bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973347586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ba27c9200490504ebaae900240859026badbda014cdc594cb525be4b0b4775bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030419444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bba364700698cca8b4a6a6d62b8df14c812b2d741aee1e7f09afeeafba4b7504","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827640782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bba364700698cca8b4a6a6d62b8df14c812b2d741aee1e7f09afeeafba4b7504","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535146572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4272160401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.398736058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335295056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294952817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"c750f4c98136e20d958db45697a2fc6ce9425ed98f99697e809016329a651124","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728798945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"c750f4c98136e20d958db45697a2fc6ce9425ed98f99697e809016329a651124","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746904413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688727374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718074686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"da0086ba156491720e5ba17caa10802ce7d804c7d41c5f190404d6a62e26adc6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536236122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"da0086ba156491720e5ba17caa10802ce7d804c7d41c5f190404d6a62e26adc6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540854379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661846886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661815006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575127899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566676738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dfc1e42029794df20049cfc1d1e10ef06b845f8bcf2045caf71b01224ca9ffd1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523153855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dfc1e42029794df20049cfc1d1e10ef06b845f8bcf2045caf71b01224ca9ffd1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558159595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506637519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507142602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695758527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691150897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ebf780361b5326d8d78f5871ee66afdd5a0c7ea62e3493c60a90e861f014cde9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819543129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ebf780361b5326d8d78f5871ee66afdd5a0c7ea62e3493c60a90e861f014cde9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856217267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f4715ef60a896e3e73dc6a93283572fb8565f29789ae9e7bfa1fb625e1663b2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505662365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f4715ef60a896e3e73dc6a93283572fb8565f29789ae9e7bfa1fb625e1663b2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292796577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027404935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979527554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505821866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505822667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588300933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578498833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.144426805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.397485238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129287325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4171828137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206765747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4220266346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130512254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.384442417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421385652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4004788429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218079306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872939931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185011794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4349404622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143164037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4348800544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159050114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001419231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263500998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356676114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133189928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3670530492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324723551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3879823622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226726593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001127056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149277908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3863011915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252897673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639861734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026004077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986580175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1553623635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578894691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279833419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.400780392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152712345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422533418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.149254807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888953349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233214244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3643054532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338919888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3708948094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122408704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3977747195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101837988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3772248009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128186522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538296117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414039761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3813562629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297276291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629705203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493424164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707540744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1375612629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088237815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089941283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4440300796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195993671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574984675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367646815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062358453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949453248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4212843476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733456793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996986864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247835349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795239115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868791483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419592304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087389824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4219870866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6055420227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051092663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388235412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075051762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495329614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3725345884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374061827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4613630295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6738855605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251729269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528173135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662296586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1850350959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085530041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1546004184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564948299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960460891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102493761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890083628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865315404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971045396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055911712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265696105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245543613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511024872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973109754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034201552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107894701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904707594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516663126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241575586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034157738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339055207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093085455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296194504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065530379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428475629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069039257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298051093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571861021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353293662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513314541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.424563077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040588952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083338885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303355327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078857611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948535364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009085728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918516073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764778134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436969067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916031797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978544383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053325387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787301009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276904918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974333601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083025393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944185833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021040075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462013533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662576756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2954459541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099697513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817121942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631692455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532881088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488947835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386896644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6449069924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879921414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939716155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018063344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306364355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437807672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3604851013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260286542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139163571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279414723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298425403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787323146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663074939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310539931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937473921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647283226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768179233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506468624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546130715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847179817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042432188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842352951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065517241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295763152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918220512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951292409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018689744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422214279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1998254683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088911953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798790996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915827199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198643073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528715477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967037796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28702108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174307568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784765114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348140085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612339499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789653896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734765159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807552338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3823063796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265668148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890185242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760956415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829626726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905961742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159126587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139541504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705441338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871365158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068290895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068296046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6884878829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5116779027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062227364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181068724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068789689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070264931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069227886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072418409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068416503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068998474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069114118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070018641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069616075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107180956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665885504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546375909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068037866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068414872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328256124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147011132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071285724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077302335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069732344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070380107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068306048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068935082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6272230413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4791226625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998524419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093379346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930640036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207476508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068353399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070232607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068168344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068937239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878728708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040177163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068119117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068684072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068418379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069298523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067918459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068312761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091601555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231937064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107109722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130951757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068042229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068419635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068181152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068561683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067977281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067979963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091576585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984599636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067867244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067894149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068103983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068874341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455536851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515371661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068010349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068065358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874440949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154549376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023316819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908211907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7509028757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6392408176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873003838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941912012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.783054877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.674777773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255519056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1296822703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067991459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068197743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326884113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1886111099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026403365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121356433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068490897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069647355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106810584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068987859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7270586194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5671551513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068041761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068501205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100758778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382211703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200811538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267439081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986353098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092959109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875880323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775873404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819879163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327482586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102640288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218323219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134864372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791741753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318262762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342289623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440175604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021276172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895377907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878064219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310268071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175195559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763629887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154363027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763458501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113746081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204859617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100113455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324012074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110829908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284736442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931126646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860491166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869099694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761630128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107211912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262450418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161051065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307395069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157806724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274152322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184353089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258864575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952725459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319697341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194659448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333000135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155703593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300081173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133037042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321137544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"FCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887034956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"FCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900213487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679288361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890701204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811970307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079244143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185054823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933088877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797885798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317943327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310582394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109749763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827163957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962975843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149432143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31570859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235730354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28418689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314875284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929295296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745280298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121771176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206249982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"PLTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920416067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"PLTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181747249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918642409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782028472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892982016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785503435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146966093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327912569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308438772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144787247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752017787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609280059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TMUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219987077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TMUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386707949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959563721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914564758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919960071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278144497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170428431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649970953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186663341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272986668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157270449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364057312},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1285","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1598395159},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1286","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603864855},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1290","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036469215},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1342","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520626485},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1353","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176675924},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1858147824},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1364","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332212995},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1373","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4490245501},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1374","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601991908},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1386","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.439313342},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1399","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032038904},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1903000934},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194184165},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440261271},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500191624},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4002029381},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1546837072},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"3wRmZN5B5UypDistmDUA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268279791},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4149571286},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"5PBiCM7mofSHR55eoXkP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224184512},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"AM1axfn3jAan7o8XYSfW","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255145644},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"AXdiGoQlSHAH9vzCVAN1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072092513},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064486595},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148637775},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"IUetZc700ZLVlkWh6n0D","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10320323},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"JNC9AKTKeNrRJ4QYzB9I","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211061831},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4175236491},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754398784},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"Nc8DWWUyYm6CQp6PvOEv","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803652506},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4380056572},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619873328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191918971},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"UQRBDDvSiDEEsJbevE4p","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896806323},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135124033},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"YleFhm7mAbAVzTW1dUmI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572881042},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926422531},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"ex1RJ8NMa2JT0zcrPtQg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574654843},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612930532},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"iUA9Ddc0CVYiNthwVluW","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038917699},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4706639111},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712697629},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818446207},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483256032},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268353589},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"yVAEXGniXeFkCfHQajGo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836103661},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"ylIXgDeMDCYkltnmAlpZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284598601},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"13467","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638705207},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"15010","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675023639},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"15619","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857249817},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"15796","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1779146219},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17178","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224766998},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17179","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678406195},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17180","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1590438485},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17432","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431517154},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"20695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278269778},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"20720","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744283993},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"20895","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291309477},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"21114","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1474478803},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"23876","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.449104233},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"24034","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3988076894},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"2577","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091083629},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"6427","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787555911},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"6456","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814697775},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"7444","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825196627},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"7664","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1688115907},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x009f3196eb90f47b7eb23e1cc0b06759806df193ec58a0dab081eaabbe8a1310","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1701973817},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04787bbd66241501604f377f11b897879c1593b019bb3363dac0a73e99b4a131","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160499442},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0590ee8929a1178e5490b8a98915d2e3697b5b67ec7872cf3d102814db65e5ad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222994787},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278682425},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x10c085ad9796aa0f7eda5ba053722c8c12357623257f301d01a2414ffee3ba40","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872027832},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.526354966},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096027247},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1742f180a7ff24c2a89f3775e8f4243169085b7a25a50f15c76090b816e4c994","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2093704874},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x17620fcf724a1f33730294e7cb5b6cd09a4cd37b0a635173cf839709c5500b5a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476932398},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2b56ba9f29601cbd226521a3081b150232f10e7e46591e4e33826aa406c3dbcc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852465335},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118406245},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057212694},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x349b7550429a7da9ef8e25d421a8053aabc0b254d81f39edee18d8cad04a43b8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639465373},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4043107449bc2145e5c31d0551c6940d72d3d8cf9d81a17115eb111635cb55a1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478079295},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508938531},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4727f17403578f6dcde55e284c0c62fa2b773bf14f9ea1478426b26f0e5a439d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983698072},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1991825595},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ddba39e67b2f7f4a78808a4975fbdd8b591f73207b8f1fd9b607821481aa994","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956042417},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354930952},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5986206793f3c14534b0f559fc4f4d18d81e563aa7e65c1f9b0f7e9281e5b033","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636356835},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c9490cd2121384ebb7a08b0aed1fa9a5239d98096d91b4bd6827c47c94951b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.506946465},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5cd8bb97af43191779906af4e624fd87eb2a07bcdb19a22b8f0943cc20dca848","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0286389407},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60752c2a562d7faff00a82238520a13a9a5a5ee2927afd397d224dc54361afd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960203739},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6102f6b038bfeff39a2e6f0ebf35ea841c4ded4120855b1cb8e9f68b8df0224a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238265013},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x63634b4e14297a748923f86dca4fa0c6c659db0f5fadeeb8e419e48e20759c34","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517970709},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7970aad0f57cc6e4b4227affdb969e8a6db419db839dcf522c451d38175534a3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0333327488},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ade8b93914ae38b2fc95cba3e6796667b838add5f06ee2dc97b812fbd464c32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511442738},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7e912d337aec54d321a4d415bd05e5a6676c3f04617f07def1281be7e0af3e91","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444991432},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8087cd3c2a88c34848bbb180b1fe7d119f8e116333de68f103cf3e408a7d5868","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3634594193},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81bb9ebd9312790810d3d40ee6545d97a8cbaee3233959b3e2bb4c37604e5e82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5388898616},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x87ebcc9f6660a5b9613650c3d91bae01f4503b11eb61a782b993bbc3a5d41b04","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049481433},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8ba020facbdb28e70792e5de86005dd98d47f29824ca602c4027b00e0e9a7e5a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682835565},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x997b475d23a34b3683f6d9886d45261ac8ff69fd8a5c04618b54a3c5f2eb642e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642741234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fce1292bea6748addd9a96632ab7455f64028671816e964a692686573079574","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620568821},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738083616},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa47e90f1232464539a75336de9fa41856285bc2dd5250ee509084ee90cf2d26e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580671327},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2008293338},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584204729},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaadfafde42e214e0db9c6a652cdaf2ec1203c0f41e8380d5387f370b89945285","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646288558},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad1b0c00056e2f29ac47f2b410a91f2dda57181d5c01257f6efa395089805558","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052801347},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb122e0e3150fc235ab62a0f17b04e7385c87e185790ef1d1a3816590ead9d2b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178963251},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137059437},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb3e11395bc67c2ad811de3ea4f58d47778e7a7d209eb73bc04a21c5a7472c186","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1799085871},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb4dfe263c46220c1ecaccfd524914457f60278f5507107e8f303fa6ac2ff5eed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024525489},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbce0ff6f8ee396ec39e76c8b60d747272e8bf4bd65f31d0e131b64aceb0be3b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125766852},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc471a026180a086c0a887e8ba73d8016bc8dbd9539ef85ea199d666f240aca17","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684086052},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc5db10fafffb5283a093c435ce617a61f0127e3a24a57419e7d25550c6b8df38","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0342660331},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193956761},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714790252},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdbc21bd5109333eb7d6f35e6d5ac6e64b39844ceba0abcb790ea87269e6bb97e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6673283354},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe610902a9cbe5a4969466a5b853f9165fa071b9804aa7f71db768db5c757b96b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2032568591},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xea27d1fc974b4aa0756d37bb2c72e9e424b74a271e291b195510dc68399e5071","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727698114},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968908221},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xed3a181bf912941cd49a24094cfba00ba30d3a48afe00cdabf32041324edc83e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586426336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf16beeed75c5f75a6bec765511631c5f145b0328d20a29d4f73b1f7f3dbf8657","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331218791},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf5875410202b3545491774ab5e712a6e05a0ffe780c52270cc8d70cc95164411","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5001253119},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf80032ad5496e997beb357f01e9fe69382d7c755cde2352eba37410db006c21d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166425121},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf808e139238945c244d8d54011908c2856a2a53b51f3c28ffaeb95de48677fae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735775536},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfe495172d67c0bd95c8c62b9a9f9815b6e35d9653e5a1f4f8c1abb051e4f3638","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0304439166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1464059377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"infer","id":"1386","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906379483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107241959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878815124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1840872671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5542632844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6675731302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335985574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855469107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269775649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316189564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554870632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150612905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713567273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730654982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"Sqnu2sPyuC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179105151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155174028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814213134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"dcgscdEUc0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019938277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337175325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"llC0sSgzg8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6886769782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"sis542tw6o","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4612552244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784586822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"13467","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1606277259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"15370","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4709559596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"17519","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760081567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"21856","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159315727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"29027","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1798904266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"5768","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.51322515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"7335","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.203817176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267151225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1557302374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702033462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x189113c537d5f827fe5ef4805b431bc2d908241b5335032186715a3eb16a8983","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562989044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1bbdc459d73e6972f5ba1f687d739fde70a9774f4875611699fb00a9eb28f090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811347101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x267caa12157e2494fa6ef09c62bae0c2966d85a2b84d1e9d3c15e75d973b6a07","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534973752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x324d699420ad881471d0fd29acc86e664e397bd6461b3fa440dcd3efc514ac79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805643916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729330621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643157848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511550383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297434197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573332902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fa70c404d4c33639d5f3883226ccf2392fbcc87bb5e4029f87bacf53d0ae6b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517922168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060912201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4506698107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501216526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711944346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553238318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642220339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557666489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8377160312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560832616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6305af093bee55cfc31252a2ee4fac4b5af533b4884fda44978a1dfc8354343b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292477114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x63e3c9432d9e3a0e9665d1152fc0a05f6ed17c9033eb9290062d25d2afb2bed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3559485112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6452c3d3e25f381ce39e9b7ffb06cf9d7a7cf1cc6c13044c2403c4606b77e5f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4051740241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588009774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x67cc22ede739a48424f07683b53b546579345c8c963a9b21b7e6c31501e84353","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081286789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6924e1f680ceef1cf6cc14a4704a3b455b0816f04e1e09523fac4c2769aaa56a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108656575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6b38815380c25cd7a3a13ed39fb0ebb24397154f237a2488198c133bed0533c9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443306967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580469695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7c3c06dfd81958876a723f95d518933ed321e96666cd005bff82f5dc18494e32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495403184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778561759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890222923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443476969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636785282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742618885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d98de23d9a87c7fe785f5b80fe0a030cc46b28863dd2b67971fe95cca4814da","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176541688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569094577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa2bc057dc5589c13f985a22e36678d8a5fe85ea8b96f5d3256123c3951d142b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817769199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562535133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097053626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa9fcdaf248a0560f83cf7c7e75cad23d3151b2169a22f22b316eb822bdc27329","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967896232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511438976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xadde598dced41995a4f96f5c8602608514539ac4467d623ed9f280bcf7c2f9cd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119462547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611641895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf11eaf31826a155b5aa4d28fafcebfd641ed153210d547fb431b7797ef30d0c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658095504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660220526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735158807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc84ac0cca6352c640525e455600e3d7798bbf5b2259444b78910c99e1dcb7c33","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086835753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc85fe2698d8434f9ebd0fa82d75fe2da36edfc81a354b85fef1582d889e5655f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145842618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780221777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516984659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1695225686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762659094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491065014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4232179621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7031535197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeb681c0ed923daa35ca2af168502b6e8dead38cfbc71505d10cda6653a4a0216","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155570063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075309851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501813251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553962544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563395142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392743869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"infer","id":"1386","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748591867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805887978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1710649075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"8WoZ7HL8NtCEIvdQT1FA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734551775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4080779078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6425590876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1449985487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1222552025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7296345273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"C8MtRn2ixX8Y0rV2Oqcy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033924508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573655535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"Fmq1kCc4ecrMwZYN4QZF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4754697418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270399165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587608385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"JXCBlhekZVLlHS1pmX0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012603749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172189606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958419432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"Sqnu2sPyuC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453887062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"dcgscdEUc0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041848805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"gTpJ2NRBMPIL7IJenUsE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213668749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367276259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"hkmwaaZrisxgrs5Q3zGz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.416333831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4278734679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"nMv5WyihlTP9vYXwQmE7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772803757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"12613","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085953522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"17917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671626069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"18360","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878381983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"20172","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3659548796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"21167","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696056117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"21856","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106146267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671439936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"31764","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123647048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"34838","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431278328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774378621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35566","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061106642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7371745702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35574","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158825108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35576","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966769455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114134987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0b60a98cc4b0350162ed884db7e46a9fde4dadf7a6900a4ef7c9322f4db8461d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789522201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520210612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ff3c9a02e75c984371ca27a0527e66d01f9781f3e0889c8a777c7eabf7e2d27","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519090001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14a5164a7390e4aaf3516ed32476afb1f8b5573e4416cf71bb16ebf48361b6bb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175942969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724146228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19ee98e348c0ccb341d1b9566fa14521566e9b2ea7aed34dc407a0ec56be36a2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085254054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x221f8019e282a5e317f753a52338b9fcc9b727e2080b25d15454fcab21d17454","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539091978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x31857453bb6440d23f1da2773e630cda769d6ecb6322c309a9f20f9f74966735","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190036136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721453834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3724888af3107c46ac749a7d1eff85d685fc5518db4983f354d21a15b4998559","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548011497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a5a0289c93118833ee682065e6935ded62984992f97fd5a59b4d2271214282d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636327236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551697578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x46fb01da8662e5eb2496b600bbe874d230f05f3e99b382f2791015ef55b464af","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893887292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531014794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4889d2e60921e596e38ac65047f01380bf462abe631f1a27e562fa6203cc7e9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229552394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b774c74e8672a632d6c12d04620f0c19a3ea10e74871a0239c9392805b70a90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.447597903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4bcdc5f24786e4ea5279a4f859d8879cc08b98cfaa2924862947c65db0f010ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1761410523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291053782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4f8f8d8c90f5bc2b0ed06e961b5fc9ed3fceca912dc2e242a38927407ec04257","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560560364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801653541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x541ea33998e7cdd6e3ac240de7ffcfb00d549517958d4150880e4ae10727c82c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879397592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562989674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608899427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c7d2463fc1a62a07bdf90d419269e1460f2f4511fe6276a82b037361f4b9349","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072773073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5dbd7b90d7a729863a2f931406348ee5c7b79f227c6458cb727914ce96db63b6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598145233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113697281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6301809524e73edb9ab1bd180101ae6d9588ba78075a64c479f334a6d2a12975","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911613826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6531afe133dd1087f336e160eebee4af020e2107bd279b40d5039d1d033007fd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215451339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x664b1ef991cea7d4a781d753d72ed3aa1f308977d96d20d5714fe354caa8cc90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534841841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x67cc22ede739a48424f07683b53b546579345c8c963a9b21b7e6c31501e84353","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919860439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6f084d200834d7f47d818a652b094f349fbe6cd5b8d02a80866910258313002b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1748074708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fdb5a3c2b2e161cc0ef10302fccfcae1f38d38ea0d906e385e604ba15b616fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525915014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79e6ec2dff92558eb36b5e2e2221bf4be45364f3726897163d80702abb51d315","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073716588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7be6233d547d49405c77bafc5e9d3eec72bb10559f913f8c9df75a9852841548","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851842663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7e84002d49c772d2083afaec7fbe129481f7ef8d269973dfa9b14c7fe9ee0b03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556784088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930734636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084177096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152083044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469958795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x924efdc8795f4221f57c2b960a38aa00e0320a8a50000dc0ba118e1776a64ad2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650836167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x92d46fc5e0f2d91a5175e8620f07a42daf2881f96d2066f691c0bae4db70570b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587000257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630827058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x98f8c3c5ce0af4b45b30b1323e132f1f430cea4df5de4089dade2e23082e1743","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676231026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b063963d2ae120f91dff588f763050c4eef52d5892370da38da7f22d524ecbb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889230218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9f6ae0491387ec1e539b682e7ea99c77dfff1049e711be2add4c01600a70b81c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536463432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622758336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa5663d39d2e7dd9345f616eb3f873c0109d96a52076e2185bdecb7135006d59e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4594737677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650624621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779782642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785552059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce0f82dc8bb789ffd3bc2928db80bbc539fa04dd223d6e15e2d81eabf8e279fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724314695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1680017316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe1f3dde136fcfd141336058cbd495e8cab5696cf07af790a772caae036cbfff5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533342561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522301243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4f063d0d54ff69eaad58ff347326773eed7baee642c61a513139207c7bb5b90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548323046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4137641172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeac27563a0f0db51e9179af69d4557165a55144264e382f994738b4a5a839143","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779625137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6e175f630cd8d873d8051881c4db72f839842208c606b41bcdf750a1552f55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540694338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536471124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xffffb2874475ae9c1e3a0e3c3c4b4e329eb3105427aa484f357bf41c5fd77c4f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800828734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1551071537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"infer","id":"1386","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4550294021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711840596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211447171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1585816659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062050974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6328512392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"AppIq82IcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608872655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717483914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660622209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"JXCBlhekZVLlHS1pmX0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1662563404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"K8qazyZJ3tXyuLlzkkyk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458549134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"R2PYH7Cwjk59eILygi1W","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083406213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"VPhhCbZ5S8zj4owac8As","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637358635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"YVmNKSXBBxo2I3DXL3ge","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4039324238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"dcgscdEUc0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083194899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"eZptlPJe8gq9rb0Gia6t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312043962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354957021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"pNdoqfEP3Eet1vIc44dj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5720634983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"sis542tw6o","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4058026296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"yZpALnnSSy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1251873354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"17410","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362771375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"17443","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268003921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"17917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717546862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"19724","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1627090288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523001859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"34511","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656814876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35265","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14865899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35268","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709641507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703042276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35566","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571451457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7330151529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357448178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x05af636e0989accb08334a74f69e5368e0aa28fe498fd16a3ca991e6dc5ae2cc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1689226824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0863a9a895ee478f311512ac2b19d8de65000030aff0027db9e604f937f6c8a4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301918934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ff3c9a02e75c984371ca27a0527e66d01f9781f3e0889c8a777c7eabf7e2d27","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0413331157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14a5164a7390e4aaf3516ed32476afb1f8b5573e4416cf71bb16ebf48361b6bb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855272852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708087745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1c1778a7bef91fee7efead8137b7232fc9960216c840af64fc7782b11fff9a74","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930100332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1f308d5009b7264e4f425417a8552fc08bd0939c9a73e74c03c8bc05242845a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235093863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e2e16f8f0c48e31806861cf0a5ac06ad329088fdde80bde3df21ec282fa7f87","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691922814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751371955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3610ae06425dab843b276102e4c8648654c05dd292e0e96a97a14493cdcfbbed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932316206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x362c61cfb577a719526b03e7596a3ef3d6d9aadf5292e2e2391c2cdf62892730","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161119494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859144981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440173935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b774c74e8672a632d6c12d04620f0c19a3ea10e74871a0239c9392805b70a90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4199206612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4bcdc5f24786e4ea5279a4f859d8879cc08b98cfaa2924862947c65db0f010ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1793238476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025561805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x51f7452fddea310ba15955cfa8fa21419335b16f8310074e43f48c4856d7e0b8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3710380146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x541ea33998e7cdd6e3ac240de7ffcfb00d549517958d4150880e4ae10727c82c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952043079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54a7ccadce22f5dcd774ef26ede3ee6b50b0c7e0b5d1ad0be7ba98780f897b51","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437028017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871429561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e8042ee380c9246f361bd68dbc50876e798d429e20799daffa435b8e089feca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743207087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155463983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x64e32392edae4ffa0df7134e38039fd598cab75a3e348b163de25c59fa011619","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969236195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74e9197dc739a6f4b8b92acbc066278143850716cf2e50159f62a0ef90fc50a5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394553395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960007647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x801aca082e8ab25e24a9d822f9b16effc21681be6fb852865a522a2da2f4d2d1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650224516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915190591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425571663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1490146728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x907768d66ca516f0d013b5c364058bcbd5fe9ccb983d8756efdb26a5ee35c614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341962795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490681348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776408957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530769072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa50b3eb85d01e333e361b89bfdae819cb53122be9fed5c5d51db9b858568c7f3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897543724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053162737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098186123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8c94b83ed914ebb3b8d54e1038675c8a31704b2e15f5df9a619388002aedc7e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140543601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae5e043ee3cec6bf13db32898b940f86c459c8f0509d007535b44f4e6fa4b0d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544687406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1e762b46837d6befa9cbd28a59c91f5dd0e59621676fcae443f275041986b49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357100905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc531ab3ca41abb7d9c8a77601565670a7f491f66de4dd897fbe560831f3a04b6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460115354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711690027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6dd54b2eb2346363b44be5a1cf01227a79b62a4abde1a80a8221a2944af0ce7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864225563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794962985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482689394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1464498929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd43a90b2547d8ae5902180c5880ce94490e4c6eea5be3a78270456ce8e58bdb4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472100842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe0a5b98f6e96050b794603710e39a0e3f5c0e24b409f51370b75b46a45d2dbc3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133282672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4f063d0d54ff69eaad58ff347326773eed7baee642c61a513139207c7bb5b90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468780634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4331154591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe70c1185b4684b0370ffae9c8a89ef8bf68d535fc77af993fdaf4717bbca3306","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653864413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf29fa22170d0b76f638c36ecb9adbdd57696e743e49c2681a748b1f149b1f84c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552162313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf379802b7062e7054167a393f1bcb7c3eb01b9db56cbe04c63044c54bced14ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1843069182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4fc60c446a50830bbdb08cad7e1931807426181f9201bead23b29bc3e047a79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665000507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf759fba6c4fd415128bc840a1bf99708244720d7e613ef4ca02f0e15157b2f14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078737407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477564379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6e175f630cd8d873d8051881c4db72f839842208c606b41bcdf750a1552f55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046647844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522162716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049959571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176512995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1641346657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150873004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"9LUOtIpQ5t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357957324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.40852498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690693403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459040779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"R2PYH7Cwjk59eILygi1W","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294016371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528611474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186382192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"cnowgnMl9y1YEhE32NUG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196517965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6864202556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"dcgscdEUc0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902087306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"gqDRCKDkBri7KXmFuOXF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583026366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256408244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"hPU6PpN0Zg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560933272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688018608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"11332","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995815209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225814611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"17408","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1971815271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"17520","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394576772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"20333","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277177477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612813605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"34509","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5358966468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"35265","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147593656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740218472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7368481246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"35575","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1774295785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"36257","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4726008113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00c220e55ff24400522bc2dc87bcb4441ef5c1fea77185f5203b75ae3e506d6f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601553333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02a9f99a4a053a88b41f8b83af688c1070512b221ee771029ddd8c9c0041012f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1652416101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x036378d7e507b986b2fb92245512435ce417d05f8f76e0a75440923cb4aadecb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946067937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0b16eb7741855ca3d4383fabb8b760c897c2165d603916497f484b87ba9826dc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.573925548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398666761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x10c67b5db2cf01b838843390ee2a8ae553049fcc5d5cdd2cc381923d690f96a1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483704039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12d7301c569d569d9a465d6edb5613d1f984019d8abb1d194312668687044500","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420019404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754470935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1cfde498b977cf83dd6a0276fb287de98dbeb79554c61368d074736730883ad8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110953909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x23d39d744428faab5f87466cf3f9ec6745deb5614a3ff87e6beff451fffa16e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1959615303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x29d65debd486144386e3d06ac15528434ee11fb844579fb2204906e655bfed51","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404256746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bcafeaa34b577a82baf2137057b3f9f02f4d50ee3bc6908c0a5899a3260e50a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529861222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823148257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674243044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x362c61cfb577a719526b03e7596a3ef3d6d9aadf5292e2e2391c2cdf62892730","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201544674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ea4ec25d0491fa7c374ed61762ec9d604c52b56df0d8c5f30ccdb71a838bc1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760510019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0880868107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476796057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220179725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52212eb28a3d13e49da743fec5b0c34ce1eac7c0ea8b8d83e724c781270fa770","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061051139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0418501808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x56030c3b4726de62df7d8ffe81f194854e89a3e0804ab1fa8b376a6be6bb3851","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206094762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458382105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5a2c59ffeb6d19ec30d9a1a689b0a2f50381d442f9a159ab9dfd2a2aae0948bb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426830887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511481567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60e45f2a5cccd16fd60eda5f96670f946b2281b7ce59595b621eee05de4eda49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596948845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508443975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x69b147dfeb842c081e6587feb5674018f37c51098b604f0c69d99dac2e7cc47c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988520327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ee22365b6602d928aa7136f549cc0d718bb16b044a6d15191041b84b5f1f43d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188138908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6f6a615bee9e8a1811ecbafbe6d3b73c36369789229eee051aaa996175aa1287","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0407330337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484961636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032167313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106445763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147584066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x89ec96860a8439042a3a97a9d9ae619cf8b3c6d1bb84c4e9afde605f4a3cd26f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569579016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x98da00373106f21a7e68fa294c5d51af835fbdb8dab309da78dfdfd049fb68cc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845918297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b063963d2ae120f91dff588f763050c4eef52d5892370da38da7f22d524ecbb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772338789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d7427139c12b62d791d4f942843b9c8060c9942b3b14b5be8ddb8380b7a0f8f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637698839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcfb9bf9287879a8f4b67ca9af614c819b73c299d63a0aa8d56d013e763005c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108227516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952897919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xac1633898094d2acac1f08417926b46e7507dbb38f73003bdc69098e0c463f02","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587468869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607028818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbe69842f45365d1ac0ff96513c1dcef6253408e085e43dd8e01434c4146e8769","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512619164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc017605da04aeb24bed768ca1fad3772c1f2dcf78506f6e868208765ee25aaaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411593726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc26b4fd76b0b5546bfda17f4303a026d8857fb0780d57715549c714c9c0d7fd9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149532211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708088956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc78e064f1dcfbb5f177f6d097c5c55a23de3505cfedcb180155675792dd57660","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229157804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839708214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047574956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427059286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcf8a3c45dd5d9dcc57318aba8ef1026a0655bdd823d5440f5fed377b0dfef014","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567143722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcff749d64c31308b9d53486a83c3b06403e58a76dd2e3c561bd406572638fb5e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597515743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd097c9848fb8b63b8700bf29cfc94f91ab952ff783025c89343e68b397eedb18","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600498935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5563925936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1585964374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdc509c3f309aad9ad2ce3efc1d9d7394bd68eec00ce7bd529c718363a6e49951","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609941711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe0264a076a3acd50925e115032eb993b51cb8b5026eb7cf79245c63f8408b3e6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684028618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3721850723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe9e10cfbca3a0aefe6fb9ba590b1812a9572b2744ed8f656ecb9a10f0752df12","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431471775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081977984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xef3446eac0c8baefadf48c8007429643bdb3d81fbcee4074395600cc40a7c682","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087559022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf164a0d86e0080be4a1e559ebfe2f15b15770b67950cf9cae6923b1fd69f598c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702212971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136165186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713294518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191225115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1409999136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"85llAdStSR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115253288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4348449923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6603540016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"Ctl0Ihc6Cz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4000036187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1411692774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264634256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"RtqWahA53xW6RuLCTD2k","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881668693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706712256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139525813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910895499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.708285011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325221834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.449978188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"nMv5WyihlTP9vYXwQmE7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911516647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"nx9c41fs7t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323482802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626208501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345381283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"12613","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870390144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"17373","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611691585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"17520","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170415957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"20172","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276139753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132312352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35266","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4387967158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702312585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7353173573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35572","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1970898586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35576","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309829728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12d7301c569d569d9a465d6edb5613d1f984019d8abb1d194312668687044500","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04593709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721172237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19f9be5aafa49f68294e14e03dfb0c4b35e4e5304f41c30140942e2ddf3711ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148967522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1d6f2f967ebf572de38a27ea879c668de22fd3b95540a6cbe17ee5818db57223","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643026132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x20c21803b308b63153e9c821a55f6c4aec287f8bcba90639dd3fbb0ffe4ca300","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599588464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21149909e80c13a5c21889b6d648671d4ebe40a87bca022fd7b7f37fba646af2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7057113276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333811975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2824855a28f57ac9abe1ee115f688b2763b53f1da10b1e881d685f4c4ef4f41a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615728461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x29d65debd486144386e3d06ac15528434ee11fb844579fb2204906e655bfed51","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095528038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739916027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3642c7a7c9ac737ee35be2ffa14c0f91a928b22544219576a020ba72d4ac8d22","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896424277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x36c83576575af62aa27da668d4310b76ad9102eb0c19ce6fe0aac88c668287d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1446864274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3e15582e2252432aa69de4d284d0384c8812794274e14daa68a0a40fb80c67ed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773347142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856390146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40ee70f4ac20bac0565f5a0455e5a06d54856f0dcc7960a1b9033d9939ee5966","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108728305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4319532e181605cb15b1bd677759a3bc7f7394b2fdf145195b700eeaedfd5221","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464320919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486813999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x453157d57aa34741278cb3d6f20d3d01b138395c3ae9eb34e2b97137fe0f2eaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604934242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b080093a8b8eade06f36e577ca260e2bcc37c7fcfe0304036d6dfd051825507","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507239254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205688451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5202285992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x538166715f9c8dbd7ecb32fcb13cf4692f6da0d68f9b6fbacbcd300012e3b754","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819769137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456147883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54f155194204503af41a7aa07c8ba488668f5e0aeaa40ce328a78a5f43eb3b61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278019043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498207277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513023736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e8e585d855c4288c3805064e74fc7ea1dab47dc0e9b42a0dbd9ca5f49c997f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325218286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189148713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60e45f2a5cccd16fd60eda5f96670f946b2281b7ce59595b621eee05de4eda49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636191906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539885801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.72498029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6bd47dc35a87927922a279a4fc9f63aff316294cf953523f77c7a33a6f47af38","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732324304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74f65609db661f4e166df3cb604c5557a60cf55448a7ce1e7884afc9d54f912a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755451628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7b94d6cef097f44d4f2327f2777b0c3f79048d25dad50bd9e752c7ea3fb80acc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540005894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096641599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929691858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x88fad6af135ca7cbd55a8bda5a1243125ded68b1e521066009cc990b13960b88","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888493589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8b4d1584715be1214797eb680966c68238ef24ec4b8f38b293fe6f808620770b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587210372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416105572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8efb4c843e360d922a27c2afbd5ad671ee44772c2d84fa113549d82d7cfc3e0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941967718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8f930d8198b8c189f1935a3eb61a38daa3ed0395a06c50291587cf9229e8d6fd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456770563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9107ead2f3c70967b3f792e7a96fceb49ad5e2af454b05996356e8a40de573c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744729819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9939fd74f2d2078cafd04de7a9a8060b27ff331f8db4a737121519b81440de1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471154864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07152881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576990536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934665995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xadc74c7282d955d2603b56ba7eee2831b295bb71596a056e46e5848b13562377","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066910578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600148808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc28a6a59080f7ed26620bfe111ce0bac356057cdd182a252f26632a0524aaa09","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586711311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702612671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574320901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6012216895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd2f7e89f40398eaee7f1eb271de7cb32ff32377122c9272f41115a77f91b24c3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788039898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477089097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd4699ba6ee735bac56afd4fa8ae3a6a9c89dd375ec760edbc011b16271ac1d20","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193457066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4f063d0d54ff69eaad58ff347326773eed7baee642c61a513139207c7bb5b90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503461324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508769025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe70c1185b4684b0370ffae9c8a89ef8bf68d535fc77af993fdaf4717bbca3306","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603495791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100747469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf887203734a8875cef2f354235f69f00a05d3d17bb645a0828c585291c83f3c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5299975631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf904c9f6ecae72a847f164f750ceec6b0ba6c98e8fc28837feb09119e3e2eada","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.375438183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf931e094c21b844b916c65258bc9b24311f13f91507fe8efda9923217fc79523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624078891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139788588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075713427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6352639498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1968073057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1622234081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2120683078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"Nq5dlzEEpU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723519609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752585539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063508199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078014101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"VPhhCbZ5S8zj4owac8As","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766066138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244450546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"Znyy6p696A","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1627327099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117285666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924904198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"lNUgd6UEQR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473580892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216207659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"tu2ouer9zq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6821414983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"yZpALnnSSy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264761155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2003492556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"17373","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960722479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"17408","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1948265131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"17791","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842534797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925307754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"30960","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517874808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"34512","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706988968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"34514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205762907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35262","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288354213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35268","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3632087973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35562","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204904973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35566","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587761819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4256044246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35577","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790991968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x01ef26bf9a5179ae2528a41ade585df98b12ceda486a6d7ef0a86697d3082a81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768725616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x05af636e0989accb08334a74f69e5368e0aa28fe498fd16a3ca991e6dc5ae2cc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165923024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479054855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692984838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x20a7cb88730bd709c39eff84e88c822b21a1707549e0bbb1c42751ee0c991fc1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516322985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x221f8019e282a5e317f753a52338b9fcc9b727e2080b25d15454fcab21d17454","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494207129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701863953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631446145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3711ce4799322ea9a6d7b445c39af9849ccde8b25b9e7b09314813ef787f12c2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588065125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a92a26ce837b361bd044acc2c0b81346ad66e9a891fc5ad27b9a35e6701c6e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983934434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ad0371eb2adc9174872a91c34ebdb45a2449fb1e3306b36ebda7544cef3fca6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142072445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3d711bcfe9890cdd10c72971ff84fa238a74eddfb1979d001a40601528ba3fc1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223172328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935591873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x42e2f652615d33f0ff3a6d1ba4fe0ebbb29384304072992d873e5aa7f9de063b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490374732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533855761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x47c9a51dd1e87410d89eb0c1e3994c5c4d8cc4116f5b362f9327c06ba373a7c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551141264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4c9ccd1404d105968de9b1ff3226fbafdc0b6e402a26bbcad3a84a1b62296783","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554821387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5615104826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512093542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077683176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60e45f2a5cccd16fd60eda5f96670f946b2281b7ce59595b621eee05de4eda49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626943292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x612e354e6b36704334d47025db5ddbf4d2c5e53732279a7ff6cbbe765dc0ce97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533401669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x65e312f680876528b4c57cde75064d0d4f317a03436c9aa9b47a754e8101d873","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212727699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6614828eb735b658bb9c448b6d217f639f3ee17a3d0776cd41b1b86398491b3c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569499951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7308961787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6cb6468b0c5ea55d408c7dfbd66cb16b222093bf511e74669c8f06bb85027c58","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499298052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157621579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x71baa735915e904511e27a6b89114a66b90a0ecfcec4b05b24eb8bd2906ce7a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665238852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x755d103d6b7d25abbb371986a60fd734aeda734485dada467fa38cb674a41cb3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1509883122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953581014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x806963fb1a01b90ba87711a2f996ba125c934ed3c5a1e39e0836c94af69120ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4637408938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067955876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452898305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x834a4109dbd18f97695e4858b3a18d21fff19bc2dc7c055f18b96843ac1de17b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101767447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1553627675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590290917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545275456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962728312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879154103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa98284a87e97931bed95d06bee22c68aac45b5d37d7c8e5e0112e072a167bb31","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619772817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaed051a9552f2c7c9c1c5519b59af6df9aa81277d52d6e8eac00331691676660","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681045714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf11eaf31826a155b5aa4d28fafcebfd641ed153210d547fb431b7797ef30d0c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808375726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb38ff89ca80358305983b93c73fea18d3269d7776f3bb77bfd75b0ce838cae70","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648013464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbe69842f45365d1ac0ff96513c1dcef6253408e085e43dd8e01434c4146e8769","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546852274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784026567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860046209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcddb4f52babca280f8e5fc4b9146f2520f0bfb88e134ff9ac8d52ea674185d79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852318915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048364744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5827048594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd8b9ff369452daebce1ac8cb6a29d6817903e85168356c72812317f38e317613","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520647543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3784236122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7353466569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009909011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee49c41419021c5282902eabae4a3f58a9c3a7c20dadd8a389385509087eb881","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.819952107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeff54605054d6070060667186f674f6b1bb85413b0dea7ad510b252a45409f44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9361460763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf42ae7d2d4707b7a8dde4394c471dc4926985cfbc5ebc92635949dd124b92cf6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.908495943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499485666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550401522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074311492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272342953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4106713394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523545416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1676805431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5315532235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660637573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"5n4fsbzm94","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839198822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561553463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6306800103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324850529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"Cg6Oy62I52","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980909627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"DPSqhbtgeZGPEzt6KBnm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552610353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1627193289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507744631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"POZ2i84qdzsmKIN5b2xd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558518995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847080725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690957304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"VPhhCbZ5S8zj4owac8As","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647344227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206250838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882961079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"eZptlPJe8gq9rb0Gia6t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355518433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152376508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608057842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"mqIkDr66P84o5wxxKuD9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977308168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977867474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6632707689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814471481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"17714","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020790234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"18360","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966335538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302702873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"34516","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3556660889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7311353555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"36399","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6737169693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229673653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x05af636e0989accb08334a74f69e5368e0aa28fe498fd16a3ca991e6dc5ae2cc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1616166882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1321095e16f2904ccae2520e22e635b69bd4f25fc54afd3d0d838a3bf54550ad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279855155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664673453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x178e0828e81556f971edb8c7ec556e9281640477c65c56f0e6f44a6ba9ff9156","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873653577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1cfde498b977cf83dd6a0276fb287de98dbeb79554c61368d074736730883ad8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440282418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616820674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bbdf4f2353a903d9a216968722cebea9caf9763844c6a13b3db120e37c66f32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502270162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2df97e2172cb226d6faf9c83f6ee8c503ca9f74356c13a8ebeab128cda656aa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376355877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3015ee036921f18ee3e446556335c6c2301e8666279e33ff15d21d851ff1e316","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121470512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x324283263c83e789fc092ed8d3333aa93ecc6ef0ba5479db05bbcb2471c92d01","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102084249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776891831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a92a26ce837b361bd044acc2c0b81346ad66e9a891fc5ad27b9a35e6701c6e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20382568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842153376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x43a9d4954f0d8a7241194ca3b2cd67e8aa953ea10758469faf25fab5e4437ac9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649348792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050309971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x46fb01da8662e5eb2496b600bbe874d230f05f3e99b382f2791015ef55b464af","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301438738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188168083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.509740379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x564dc4a385305c482015061537989c4af69f1556f40b958a7bd6e4cf84ad1e2c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277630149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504828465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x580ffec1f7b057910f9f596c80d203870f3028b04784a982d158d3581514299e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543354367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5a378fe7c6e208d4d43020278d3666e46fe82be14beadc1240914b06b93eb9f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594449167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5f45f396da9abab7848fa049eb91986290dc370b681e42e4f117d6ac4cfb4bac","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585669029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6541a8761b97d252205e5934fb7f3312cd460cb1d07c722e0bbe3f8181ddbcb7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601421914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ac410efb3f814c425e889eb52aab64f1d8b792fcf3348646b75f45c7800c014","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7312257762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c21b21e4e18b01887221429c4dea83232f5eb43ebd8c5849bc334ecea3e68de","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05782531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6d2f4940373a13567e53de6fd2015186c298249329a5f03771a6b160f5e4a7d6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617342875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e9fda006161184b29a2df3754b5b9c3757f8a2adc1f44291fe9907f8fc6ae97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148487345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091972249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7340d11f38c12e86886114cf7d3e0f1063758de8b7ac81db7e580b797aa9dd75","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3869207209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74f6aa8144daf93f45c67ac5134ec1b6acc1c80fde043cea457929cbd6afd007","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268293687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77783da9b3549399a4bc0ba504f03c33f6cafca89f6ef5d96cb1d9492dfd22d5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852937496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7beceb04f7b1d4f0dde80b58c6f43c23b8ad54b21c693e172c974f480b46483c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164168926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973042488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81be71c406085cede3485dbd3801cc083d077568f63fcf1136aa1e7beadf214c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349211597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x829f5e072fb9b46f9769d010d41d97636be8570910c9f48b7ac203359ec642e8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003842573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x833d5d5148ac80ef7a7a52b5aa3006d24ea21eee6cae5c98bd618bf6151919bc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094106274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x889d2a7ceb311b540ceb60232528719120e67458d870fe2046c0eddafdf76d7e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644123891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8c90561ffcdd15e5258609a891f227dbde5d48e219cd5319c231bb5dda56a4ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213996337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e5dd56e494bac55a67a36b7044cefd95dfe7bf8c893f7d82a58c9681990100d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638803308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1533939381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538940718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa07f15fdd0baa90adf78bd4d66543083334a7e5235a95fa5f241c4e519ea83f6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468974161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa38126691a9799b574bc89e92e03daba67e63da1187dc821cab6b616e4b02361","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963886554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561704081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa5c12010762d72819add78f2030ffc7e65b8296896527e5e2087d7ac2b42d3e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1796019652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862619341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573983997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb12a219f75d35ad91ee9428d22e47f1ee6de61f5d79466b1749c8b66aed2f2d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121574604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb3a76d0e65e030f0c6549e905086e5677dcb9172d3b4bd58808e1671a0bfbf79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457153333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbc5e208a1e31c0a32950c011c2cac6ac17b1df4d2cf07d5b1a9f3fadd7c2fca5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826587537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074630811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521947944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5839042207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1621864738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd8d889f4c49f58d98538d08182a07c27206f0e98f9f0a125eda3abf94305c8f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464798354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592081442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf23ebfcbcbf1648c1c8b03bba6468f1ff34e417dd0988a935c6fb863a7787d1d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622249244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfaa9a6cd431d92c91fc2322e961d59866471dab2b314a474c9e8308ffba62e6f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055375485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xffdd774123c13df21ce755bfd4f65bde47a74f1377ea73c8b130d84c59831173","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338805246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905019851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819648464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4136441557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820320797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1557090796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5488536162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061344578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126616392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1575","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141376301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1576","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394273246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1578","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107843036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1580","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1943625742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1581","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078968902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557907854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272044014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603015487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4096784833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5925153469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569576941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617248146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511811965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"LhX5FOZNhVvaI79gtvni","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133169647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318957368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"cWo9pRQFGfKsTDgC7VTj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228617348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300844436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"hPU6PpN0Zg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700867782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894834019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6939638699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"21531","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127112275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947229346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6027761985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"35571","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017768836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"35577","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1772689767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"36934","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4569267364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x01d150bd16d2edf88980f26fb9f5f778d6cb661827037d7e9c24fe3a0f3009ed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618216952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1485156007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a7e45f69a8d2c45fc008fa9d8242efa13264ba540a782d82f613d673f1d1205","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0892283857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266398115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500490481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x15ef292e550795785df3ee5eac729517fc850936e877b165998c94351c12544b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057565425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575994271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x199d06911b2e6dbd3b2b4275d07ecbccf72358e46607485a403de5b90cdfdb1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068652529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19ee98e348c0ccb341d1b9566fa14521566e9b2ea7aed34dc407a0ec56be36a2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451119346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b6f76e5b8587ee896c35847e12d11e75290a8c3934c5952e8a9d6e4c6f03cfa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985439773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1cfde498b977cf83dd6a0276fb287de98dbeb79554c61368d074736730883ad8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112475312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1ddc0e7de1634d1204dda3bef66ffe18b0d52d8605c0a363755480de0dc81d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.747450186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x224e5df8cf6b8d42f18cbee74bbe0c4863c73e9fc4f51b4115c103b291c35214","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629817189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bcafeaa34b577a82baf2137057b3f9f02f4d50ee3bc6908c0a5899a3260e50a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636808148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3015ee036921f18ee3e446556335c6c2301e8666279e33ff15d21d851ff1e316","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379905323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790877417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595353001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a92a26ce837b361bd044acc2c0b81346ad66e9a891fc5ad27b9a35e6701c6e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144917905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958088036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c7a35bcc7eca3f6e7f3ff8a942261958252b316af0ea44f9476912dff7e748","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472797732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567103207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x45dfeb8088ef684004f6da7ab453cb1e7cacb14330b06a4eb7ba556e47201c43","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792107995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4bcdc5f24786e4ea5279a4f859d8879cc08b98cfaa2924862947c65db0f010ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150513761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156522638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x553e544e90a507cbda445ff4e625d664d1693ca7ab2b2cb1c911bcdce5a97d5d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.519561914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x564dc4a385305c482015061537989c4af69f1556f40b958a7bd6e4cf84ad1e2c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341702897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565503105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5fb8a735c3216b05603d9a0620342441aa5c263e39395b0c0310297e1302a0f1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009568315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034442885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60e45f2a5cccd16fd60eda5f96670f946b2281b7ce59595b621eee05de4eda49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631539299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8273152578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c8a58fbff19479adec1e3f4111bb5622398e5b5ef3cf0c611a41cc234c6f8ad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212704205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e9fda006161184b29a2df3754b5b9c3757f8a2adc1f44291fe9907f8fc6ae97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471255125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6edc6c77c16ef3ba1bcd646159f12f8b8a39528e500dcff95b9220ccfbb75141","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6619047535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158311251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7340d11f38c12e86886114cf7d3e0f1063758de8b7ac81db7e580b797aa9dd75","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149617709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77783da9b3549399a4bc0ba504f03c33f6cafca89f6ef5d96cb1d9492dfd22d5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078095657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77eaf36a80197a13ff32e31f05b54e824a6fd21d93f1001abcc18ba8d9a7ed16","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4876286861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7cb962714c60c82f7fd72cb0a5222c592c114e1d1c2c2cc65a22459d5de141c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981534535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955837893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841680644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8c90561ffcdd15e5258609a891f227dbde5d48e219cd5319c231bb5dda56a4ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157915226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b93c610b88d5af6cf4b346bae27e92645e36b8f4d45a86ba6f9287e8765fa04","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184652924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672931927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d8debf9203c6da07e77218d91fe8d4213c8d68d4c2864a9639b70572f49c76b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629257654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628867129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa2a8100778036aa3b7c6966359d440bd392465346e394c15ec7e04979212fce4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466421823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004753499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa908e77b6376510856d9a22e3f56cb99f7034681f3b0fba5376c19adc94523f2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763638187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734614359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb1a6136ad23d19526c4929d2e79c79e999628de931ca2475d138fb31637fd2c4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539935486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2846f35e85eb09a094edbd4e93e345d3c682dc0436615adc27122222fccbd81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1506600869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2e5f441b24c3bde052635a5ca1d10a7fa8740e4efb8df6b815276e887aa979d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242497602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701959771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc7a571b438d14b6fb34afad62ae1bd99d6cc9ea390b2adb6b868ad3b0b624aae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940694931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd5a64f75a5d7107e53e7c3eaf52865624a0c79ad8c41379faef4285494991326","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5776194009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd97d95f15edfe56fd412a3e95929497903f16069964f63b7ced90172cd723d61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677420212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3817069595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099759533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xef5880e94212f24f17d45b756c9aa42bc7d39c3feda659fc22417adae5e22d00","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789140812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf8b487261c924bbf63a422effd23e80381d152441249ace2aa13af4ab8137a36","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616828864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595728251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089540811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.367145189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270946903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862652655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5904268155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475172893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197802051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1575","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006504169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1576","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608072568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1578","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623773016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1580","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1731473858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1581","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741498887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1585","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145503063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1596","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109972943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1597","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397635824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1553733499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706192548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697457171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113050448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323518885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493909678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140959067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"cNFd1y1J8PgOJllEy4uJ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950322773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223909623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"kCikWdlPijovPazB9fP1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597210855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680611829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"njIsNltHOS7eR4ZUgaXX","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255239852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"nx9c41fs7t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.183044642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4014545614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"tu2ouer9zq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6753551262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742363024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6329247081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171022743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"14456","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162503013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"17520","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286750019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643550432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878376431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4262380007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"36487","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1662120355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"36488","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497536039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"37112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278847815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"37552","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370424934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"4919","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4317048729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1584800233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d82012de5e3275b934dcf446b1cce93705b37e9ffe22470fd6caf7411d1d1f6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772115956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070501444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12d7301c569d569d9a465d6edb5613d1f984019d8abb1d194312668687044500","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654375184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x134bc0bb11dd106662b5d8412bbc404548891e34b6b019a1da19c26b23dda475","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862949077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683477219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x184228c1bfc9502d38f6f9984667f3da7b2f955616f195a3ba28b51fb0539bfe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710214021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1cfde498b977cf83dd6a0276fb287de98dbeb79554c61368d074736730883ad8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029245469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2ad8f879ef5b4befd518567e03c972648816df918ed7bb03fa4f6bbf79975532","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937049715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bbdf4f2353a903d9a216968722cebea9caf9763844c6a13b3db120e37c66f32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066245598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2dac5b263a09b9a84d775bbc1cbc856559dbe49d3a2b875e7e6ad42a88d07b3b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066837573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800118717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3015ee036921f18ee3e446556335c6c2301e8666279e33ff15d21d851ff1e316","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923421705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928798068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066403947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3642c7a7c9ac737ee35be2ffa14c0f91a928b22544219576a020ba72d4ac8d22","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362091613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906129167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654568536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52dde4a6bf4493e06461504e2651dc090b0e11bcdc6d486f727b0272d8e8880e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215841604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5412ae25e97078f814157de948459d59c6221b4c4c495fdd57b536543ad36729","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737636724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654421855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x590d839e2b36e01deeb261bcdaa2fc319cd414b084b4bc2f64ed89fef485c61a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1776881667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308752188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x611f34804ed4f35b72c0e5d92ca9ce09ca70be8e573a891add05b0a355d1024c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770115759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x62995cb8a7c8c0d216a8882109bd1e05574b5df87d313f06cb3e1cd5593e6d13","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737228592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6541a8761b97d252205e5934fb7f3312cd460cb1d07c722e0bbe3f8181ddbcb7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682877993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6cb6468b0c5ea55d408c7dfbd66cb16b222093bf511e74669c8f06bb85027c58","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655434455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e9fda006161184b29a2df3754b5b9c3757f8a2adc1f44291fe9907f8fc6ae97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212243508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ee22365b6602d928aa7136f549cc0d718bb16b044a6d15191041b84b5f1f43d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566798458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6f7fbdcded63d55e8bdb693028dd86d40c69336b175ed7defc9250e42c9cb05a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670396763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7cb962714c60c82f7fd72cb0a5222c592c114e1d1c2c2cc65a22459d5de141c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963963442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137369461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096013449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8a3efd9a41cb8bff7474de6b67f4efa778ac4dd5d8caea008b8087af0a19a0e6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109681463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8be38f21b6c39fff2de0258b1d18fc9feafdef9e95f14d7f81db3bd3d7effeff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123401418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x99e0e1db59afda81f07b3a8f541879eaf3f4c23a3381c8ba35937c3adc0a32d1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166884871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9e998b6cf62315fe13fd80e8a57c3b1bb9c7affcdada886b44efdcfd28c4e4b0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337750288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa257136f50d15c4151d7fa6464cba6a6dfc5dfa325d9fb6e414f7b642ba84381","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075465859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6de2e10501f82a91e012ab54223416fcd3644b0ec054bdb22a68e2062527e50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6073638551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270602594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166935358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb303fceda7906a905f697c1f9eac462da9cd8c9b1a8d18898363437a7be31561","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270435911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb3a76d0e65e030f0c6549e905086e5677dcb9172d3b4bd58808e1671a0bfbf79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662105946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb7f9d3f61910ecf7a5e6e46f487a039e91a92b68585f05ec9b22cb34d3804bbd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176413041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbe69fd3d55f4a3accb1a665733d18a215895d05beffae5f417de21a88bc992b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362304134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc30cf28f8108d5e883038c89afeaaead56c19730ed7211249cbf60c35ff76890","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1551043572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc3a89dee3b659822e32f8388f615907ecf262466576f18ecff7619f6d4d6914b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162071896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863062421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc7a571b438d14b6fb34afad62ae1bd99d6cc9ea390b2adb6b868ad3b0b624aae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870616499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849123547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd00a85533ae7178ba291e844789a74dc0d2d31ca93159fe10341ceece98df61e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5629261413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737128582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd87fa4ed709b451e4fec7e09e4e600d86e8386f1707a1382fe963523b9a9fa21","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937489758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdd69d77168d6820d90f89550bb21bba1bdbe52e9247373105ce1a5fc9f55d4ab","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890045081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552958169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6446946183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7743660672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfa48a99317daef1654d5b03e30557c4222f276657275628d9475e141c64b545d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920994447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xffea59c51b27dd000038fb9e8f659bfb3ea3cb8a4283a9e774bdef9844a27141","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049060756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344934678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737361874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971190465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5530018512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117057406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974190376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1585","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014783321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007152508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847159136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"5n4fsbzm94","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682462145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601976082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584010005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708210376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467736321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180960916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1809276555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576601957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253945183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080003241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4440483092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1759348307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"gTpJ2NRBMPIL7IJenUsE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1984018377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"hIZy2ULp8Z","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741953069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"kCikWdlPijovPazB9fP1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992791154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"llC0sSgzg8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7387947746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"pz96pzyIIC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037223956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"s5sgqZ9qQ5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794536916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"z0xj9vne49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1575035652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1657033218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"13467","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339442645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"2937","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161747919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"34516","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3924465917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35261","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991852962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845657301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7033474637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35570","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113644867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4809639644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"38691","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138918915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"7444","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4806239745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358107728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733650876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173631566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088004528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a7e45f69a8d2c45fc008fa9d8242efa13264ba540a782d82f613d673f1d1205","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699261896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x13d630af7d1d92f010d9856abe48fc75eee24686897533948b919164b64199b3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793441101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x16e0225d19b649692f9a1483a57b14e101bd1d5148f6636f3ce30d1043335eca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713181483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19ecca7a34f32dc88335202882783f28fd372ab53b703485fb4cc0dd46537b0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942584674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1bbdc459d73e6972f5ba1f687d739fde70a9774f4875611699fb00a9eb28f090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672418693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1bef2cec162d5499c60c1acd8e3c5a3acc321aee580deda1f01aa40dadbda374","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659665072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1249451566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x226c6d5a8de377a56641a498191c5e1f3792b81618841afb8879a5d817f13771","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614269419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2762fb84cbeb75c3fbeaea2045cfe94b65dfcf1c945e76ebaefce62e211f99ce","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317768288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2993e8c18922f93787756e02dc262c193b79f05c7b952a0c9656e948f9977c88","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926761144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069174412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3126cccd9042f185cf2bc8621521c5b32b299ba3f41a10b8300ae5a1ee84d21a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436932638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x356057e0820341fb332b9de11d61dafe8e762617a0eb0a491f8904d3ba9e3a01","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568501778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902255621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x37100ed3560699c48d90a027e65da10a04e395785b598289163e3bbfdaca99e6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718305081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4319532e181605cb15b1bd677759a3bc7f7394b2fdf145195b700eeaedfd5221","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565260942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x43c6353aaf12e34068e62043b933a6186def30bdcecfbbd461de2288b97f2505","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819176087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5a542fe246448e58671948b2f28bb746d7694172ad3c57b28d5cf86126834cf0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230753891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029776836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016933217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7028fcfbf64ce6e64670e10d19fd7683eba964432ca99426dd168b5f0091323d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596789688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163744005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586066006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79342e0d3cce6f59378a6a016531546b773490b30ce51700265bc13e6651bd72","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683662109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5000333984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705121722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764284716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214068616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x83765aedcb4a590b396164f436f9113ad27e51a7d56dcc3bb7b776da455fb9eb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079919468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x84d62ee93bfa7d38836e278801c8c5ccb791482d36b0fbedc990ac2ba1610d9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598909875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e8a20aa06f5913e9efda697f16b9525b70ce1f720851e8f1a13bd46072a6126","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776783345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9939fd74f2d2078cafd04de7a9a8060b27ff331f8db4a737121519b81440de1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568388781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9a76ce64d7da9eac3f42aa09b1d25eb610ccc16eaf4849493b3d1698fb79ba57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582760104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ba0e12a339b01159f86cd697890e24ab2a25749cdaa8beb6a1a744fb4a93610","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6289320725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa3958a7207ea6ed2b47fc7e3b03943e9f3c4a745cb71d7515dc529dd91e102ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347393554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813202264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682506144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3858567873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6b3d7a2037b3faa7e1306d741840d453432902d73cc9a146a035e40271eae73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590718868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c4e7857dfd1fe47c1e6a11813aaca3f622a5f47769cd765be8c7a8336af555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572619405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb96bb2fdb468a1cb699369dea9c383633e1d35a7bbd6c18f9ffd6871dde5dd4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069722901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc2bd8cbba68f1fe46e89445b61e2c581ea96527438889eb749a852fba647920","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633188608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd407fc7bc044a509b1eb3059d8a85af5493425d9edb677781dcc7a98c1554adb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655112957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd6e0317cee513cc3afdc1954ac576b241ad2287536e88b17fd3a77b4c3d0976e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479927475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf6a672e18c94c70b53260043fbc49a73395d51de3d5db2bcd5afd23efa13f97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6101701294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522277855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeaabc7d6b6cdfb530da706539f1acb62aae36305bc06231ef4341d5e2ef62979","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088005628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xebfda84c91d3dafde3f49bd132aadc9e762b88023021806e7345cd526fc7e1fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656003567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeee36eb4a7474ed4415c966a86491a2880d799479c776776a0e1b06671e3b690","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108455646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf513ac8ba9915f8da013900cf283d1800104e8789cb90b4fea176cc4e03df47c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955356295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfac98674a774531c2b7def1ce530ef2eaa78a1c444f794923826f2660b1eaa14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094549914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfdb79c231b8bd8220c34492ec80cb0125928e486f3a4aa0b0ffeff2031b1badf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697857007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663876231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1538931128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118739117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5544909547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861004814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886477916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1585","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088386107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819893838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"09U2cQZqCR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468775542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729629181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587648696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"7L7arFnaO0Nom1bLY295","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895665389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6533729167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"ERAQ2GcY83b6TeC7x0Yf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656320497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179034662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"LhX5FOZNhVvaI79gtvni","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1919593101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"P0OAOZIpyq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136710791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"Q9gRdQ0Z9t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801364753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608662715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"W8iOAuLrMal2MAwPPg62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762511688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1473954536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796187581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"cNFd1y1J8PgOJllEy4uJ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788571915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"dy9yI9PLIh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659556598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789915554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"fXpDY62ibnxfUbqAaAEC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800141943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"h7dapoa4cm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800129347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"hPU6PpN0Zg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705909456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"llC0sSgzg8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6828351494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"mqIkDr66P84o5wxxKuD9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805315425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014819621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4837266109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6516417961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"14456","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1583914193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"19724","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824776851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"21531","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1401130099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911890972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"34514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190548086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"35573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5166371312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"37347","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262569756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"38893","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900626356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"7444","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5326821301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504008316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716724506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089770826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0c4823aafbe6bf931478b1fe3b30a1437663233e22b4492aebe7b0ac457623e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348046043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x16e0225d19b649692f9a1483a57b14e101bd1d5148f6636f3ce30d1043335eca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690572492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19848149723bbd00545b98f45aa239864d8afd2194fec522af4dd2cb222f9766","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203373266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x208963021564bd01f7b346795490456505f7156e9e636c3c3cc0794c04aecf45","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280299215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.144208957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x293fb49f43b12631ec4ad0617d9c0efc0eacce33416ef16f68521427daca1678","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585973322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e0d7de7bb40128de91aedced917f4b8e47918ba6ab6fd4d8efc61ffe7740c6a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3874353335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680861878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2f2fd73638998d19d3a2c480a55eb4ad7cc9a67ecb9d08533d4b86e050af5c91","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777580776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x319825b4422801a53da59c796e17cfb0fb08bd5183f30d837bf6c1ae564fb9cf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664616873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x31cd7997445b8ad0233d6dfa0c183072ae240dc29691f7910ab464f36cbc36ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791344863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614109572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3c29c5915bdfef95a58c9e4ec2435c759633c94fcb9a2038bbe05b787e5aa3c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830057311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f3ab94bfcb8a771c37805ff85aea28a8f1bfd2132196b9e378a428ea9de80bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596602578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078058088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5374a734024814a7e91a50b025cf0924bcf99756f40384beb260ede9322ca28f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000477367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54416d15d2428ec5fb1e6f2e646f0fd570f367be80d9dd285c479c8e9ce238a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486167591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58a074070b409a0e7fdf15a2a3b0f80d2ff77c8a5161cbfcd7a464b7331cf7ce","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578663069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c9847f65f9c4b05e19e08b5b1b82067822adc126a031bf1c1862a7a769af5b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989671715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032145128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x612e354e6b36704334d47025db5ddbf4d2c5e53732279a7ff6cbbe765dc0ce97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597592612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x68c327454a085b95c7ad375ec60a2dbc4163c4d5584963e782c876a131f033d2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611930885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947565816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7214ecfdc0d4e45a3b1e2903e19df196851867c0793f8b4b1f25f5f921679835","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334989188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7340d11f38c12e86886114cf7d3e0f1063758de8b7ac81db7e580b797aa9dd75","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4087445143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b4a1d4cd398a86c18b6bb9b5218917dc9f04b01a3cd4bae1c71ea345f15fa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4543710908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.487750022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663034874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761024648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074603261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x850c1624dc9d8ca9850195df05293ff85273e6b92e89a9551cd0a57c2f72aceb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999699562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8be38f21b6c39fff2de0258b1d18fc9feafdef9e95f14d7f81db3bd3d7effeff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102835083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8c866938d6598760f8d18bd624d6ba822b79f7e23604573f52cf8e769614fa5e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118516167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9aa6086535a4b3145e9f7378dd58a7a8c30c4b15bd4fe17eb6990817f5cd3cd9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1659916819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595685602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa38b66d42e953997abb37d1f6ee5304c289f40511d5274150564a009bd1dc44a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077083721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4ff70673e8d6f76261400c0ffd9d7970bf6d8aec5f8f44b20434e59e3e3141e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578447506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874007719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xac79577895d581eaee3b3690a80b8c575422e404ef33e58bde8cb6a906b7cf5c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584851061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265638969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb58d0e3b3dd34b2b8d8997e6ce36ca3873bdd6034fe0dde633f11e50d4b18c69","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673466067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c4e7857dfd1fe47c1e6a11813aaca3f622a5f47769cd765be8c7a8336af555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057866418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc7391c0c0c87078baaa914595d39b6a7037780e992bf264e9cd2b7fed6916d8d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579230589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671882679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb96bb2fdb468a1cb699369dea9c383633e1d35a7bbd6c18f9ffd6871dde5dd4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445943037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xda8ebb9d7998b0e37f912b78d8f71a9e36b8a8b5b2afff4bb1f8106e29ae0604","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1361712071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xddf468f8f181c3d02fd9614fceed3b7488ea5a0f90e921b18231cc8127ca77ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927756243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf26e0868001c55b6ece885a3012633eb5c31afb17c76ad9423a2de99b3aa4b6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852667815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf6a672e18c94c70b53260043fbc49a73395d51de3d5db2bcd5afd23efa13f97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5999091474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe371bb4a38f3714fc1ef7a8ecdaca8a8005aecead9ec95eb5ed8184ca55a94d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057192617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3857395249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8081756771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf005ddced69842c3943edea3b8fb24187240ac93becdc1532c5b9db34f9dd2c8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4745578995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0aa54d57a0b28671028986f60c2c78d95e7b901ba036daf665fe2cd3b103ea6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10426091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf14a0ca39d0ad5c98806e7aff25fbb6033c41093d1051fa5220f726c211cfe68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981449209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfc4453f83b30fdad8ac707b7bd11309aa4c4c90d0c17ad0c4680d4142d4471f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631610454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3922849051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316924355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043240844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5895516275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578983074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809973995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1585","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882994836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889859327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791745871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798073583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533681984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"CGb5hO1YNNR2bAPun9WF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091658139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"Lc2SQtQQCg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058705731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272370307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539806422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1813873941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308290138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846949112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"cnowgnMl9y1YEhE32NUG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1724921142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572293388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"ln62Z8L0Sd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274148522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154341942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2137478132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"s5sgqZ9qQ5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657435346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527443545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"12539","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4557265578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"20172","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189353414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"35263","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927412844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"35572","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1920689285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"36488","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274207346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1777098529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"38691","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997867699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0189df05ed7bf84d799213b01a79571e305c03b2ac5359cfbb3a323448ba20fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524211237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649131077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1442184413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a43fb8a97a73157bb3185ff74e751a8743530460013aec336810e3c8a344550","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640001652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12b6268efb832fe64bb746b9f50a51245b761d6b170e172b3cd81a7c4f39432b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847104259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19ecca7a34f32dc88335202882783f28fd372ab53b703485fb4cc0dd46537b0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776055218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a5edf9d6f7813a5289f8e410c5a033abbd52576fc1a2d44aa34f2a4c86303c1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538258689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x216cfc5952a75a6c2005fa90a1f49524401abdde826aaa916af4c88a70426363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063491671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x226c6d5a8de377a56641a498191c5e1f3792b81618841afb8879a5d817f13771","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559003024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2993e8c18922f93787756e02dc262c193b79f05c7b952a0c9656e948f9977c88","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269975654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591214325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x319825b4422801a53da59c796e17cfb0fb08bd5183f30d837bf6c1ae564fb9cf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613435303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087634742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x386813cf90074b5b5bc274d145be89a20f07386a3f8a7d370781a0af7196dc25","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761746143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3c29c5915bdfef95a58c9e4ec2435c759633c94fcb9a2038bbe05b787e5aa3c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874259295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3cd73b3b011b96614556ee480172abf25896a8e1085ca4ee683892e61d2a080b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1795158993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3e98b1cce4001e971c9b0500408e89e06dd75a1bf2c60e763d0e5f8464a9f6a1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571739277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ee86a850a9f5b495d65ad5e409e5903a1f14ccc78c4e8bfa82fdb4c497b543d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753192048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f3ab94bfcb8a771c37805ff85aea28a8f1bfd2132196b9e378a428ea9de80bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548642401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4405c62496c4fdd275d17ec31567a01534013c518c314ce61bb633b5e7cb6426","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561393802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x468d2a45052a19334bd591db94acae2a55294e337ad2fb7c2a49430cd244a811","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534608037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b795c2a883712e8e78db7b76ab82da20430badfd925512147a4812ce84079f1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843777583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x522bcdb642283507233874b9e9eca991d445135dcd82dba6e6cf09dcf40e5b7d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760863538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52847ca1413b76a5570b97c0c432e38dbe61b0140f9d45e912604591b08f6fca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540966127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e67d2599f32e6cd86a760bf28796da2e796377e5d711b739a1686b0d17dc31c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519338704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957378254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069948965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536406745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74f6aa8144daf93f45c67ac5134ec1b6acc1c80fde043cea457929cbd6afd007","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320299243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7cd79521e16e9f6f1e82311edb96e0a2f4b2dbc92fd7264a7add59f54b054109","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7307622103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4950639543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582158872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258240154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x84f148876e026a2c7bcd1007498a982d9c968fbd7ff6956e0d2d11f86ec0aae9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024750083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x856817ebe659b1ad43383049beb1f45453c5663961f884347bf76c88ffa095a5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140679267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8838304ca258f5a75be1bde60aac106190ff9ca64e5478628b8ed454a68dbb5c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008808716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x898656e7d7a2edeba07fffd1c4ef2098de00cb680cbce087274f09d87fcf3e12","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988614244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1396580818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8eff77c559ceb1141d32741d418b923b613b84d5a6e701d22466bb374b20156a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5685181852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x959899cd8459386dd0b0e46d13ce7d6b693f864641643c8629ef18762ef88a32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589240357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa0f4c4924ea1a8b410b4ce821c2a9955fad21a1b19bdcfde90816732278b3dd5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207836186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa257136f50d15c4151d7fa6464cba6a6dfc5dfa325d9fb6e414f7b642ba84381","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1400210882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981581032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa76a7ecac374e7e37f9dd7eacda947793f23d2886ffe0dc28fcc081a7f61423c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491891079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770829243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xac668145450c97698032df41289265cc1eab25bc5f42c4d4809922ea7db39f3e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8314348014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xadbfa8a84df49adfe502a7b36082a96b3207c9aaa82aeeba5988310e1acf75ad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651476413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb50a8be669052c941c30a8892b48ba104fb09ffd7d82f963b511f3db855e0a1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199970896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2ecc146cbbc8f24186766ef0b2cd56a1757227aee4cc9f951920538769a3490","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056690081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc30cf28f8108d5e883038c89afeaaead56c19730ed7211249cbf60c35ff76890","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370004233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc33864b627355a80ffc177e9fb26f029c2343c5fff190b41b6e0f1b590797d72","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6454901249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc62d6e935097ab9bfd31790bf222e863b6a1509d2ae4602762ee6b8ec4acc07a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914789271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd65c4072e48a82a9cd49e8e6be332792fb13e8e076134d860d110427fc01d374","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707397127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe64a95a022a9012b0e5cba0c4c3c8e81caf10f7dd5a091c24714ed154e02c13c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523792406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842797387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee3898d16e04818aa853e39e1533b368ad57ca092ec0e6298ccdf41b62786ab9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6982904049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4b2d2cc364a536813bb400a0aac9dce912e8c880f4f368bdbcc59256d50a3f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1582683351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903552265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098799727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871217343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6060843022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936335763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541951859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660044781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"09U2cQZqCR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676753246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689358243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538369016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"7L7arFnaO0Nom1bLY295","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905074526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"86c2ccz9tQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769994917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7507528896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"CGb5hO1YNNR2bAPun9WF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817994647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624090381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"K8qazyZJ3tXyuLlzkkyk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687630902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"LhX5FOZNhVvaI79gtvni","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614944403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876528972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290133035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"RzsZN6SlUp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604621274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"SsikK1jWrDZwQxDLCAnU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007537507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756288896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"cI9O2UsgOQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067448196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739756701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"dy9yI9PLIh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576093073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"j65AKQZQCjgqa3erm88N","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133209073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"mqIkDr66P84o5wxxKuD9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071878316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7372288663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048563389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"zqPzgyRyu9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673629211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"10220","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549378805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5837893014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"13467","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787798877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"17917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529914721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"21531","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021829078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"2937","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793523089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.780180202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"35573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5353840238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"39771","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8325222703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"39783","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172794442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"6948","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770207292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x027eeeaba097b5f3b166eace64668b2e6b327acc7c6b314ae5f03b33b51425e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3771576608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07c96dbd0f70e5a27a0e15c22042abcc57bc6acc7f740f7935e0a08cde5e5138","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195583219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253942173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12a561b723e051783fb5f5a67fbc9764986ae2996ca7b2ebcef0dc2d9b222fec","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636515805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1672bfe7ef6d85a4ecffa9faf1149ef1a1661dd919598ab46b04a6ae0a4ffab4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555872492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x16d24ebfbf42d9f4c24f11962424d41829db6cc542593c09acee647958020382","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073011057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1985caaa507a1de1c390b2c4957e5535cb530634bd7bb4c5c1e75fbd6cc22e64","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528241168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a5edf9d6f7813a5289f8e410c5a033abbd52576fc1a2d44aa34f2a4c86303c1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05322463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1bed9a7702b0855686f4f65a9f65d51afeb7ca0c60f48937f4377269087cec25","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881312589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1d395b8dea9dd429fbce85f8b8cbd5aa85ec8a2e8980755756be3eec03da5b9a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791180983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2136be6fba772eb946ef5a886f2645cf71eed6ff977cec21b0833d2c5946e898","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530654742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2239eba5e038d08aa4ced697362abce36aad9602a412cd1288b8a1164d349c80","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554741049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x23b63fa147a0fa4ea0869c83885fd1dfde6830981790984634efb72620a47975","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565997889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x25a4ea049d3bd46fe71ad8676feef9098bb37cbd9d9336280dd6188a7659813c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553946833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2a34915c245f4b94976dda8afddb56452caf0ba2307500f78d7f08813d467917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736892019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x310c3d08f015157ec78e04f3f4fefed659b5e2bd88ae80cb38ff27ef970c39bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596091583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x34a8aa834927033bb6ac7bd96c508972611b826ca6d61e59c6d7d0cf3571d463","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5057682255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553083017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x385458d81b805f220ccc137a23e5e24d1c6ecb61a189ba2edf8812b099129af9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958155015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3e6cb7ad03e2687d0befe8706bb9ac276b3d74c0a8c7e02bf3c6b796e25601c0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.601336675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x419c7ae262b7b17f41a077eeaec4b2d3881406ea3a4cf0d5984536fe0bd3c995","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080394885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4928bece364d2def95c920459ab1fa54f449f99f33b0dbc93d6a84f80d9c9669","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761326895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e4e89fd4a8b605664a3745981cd9034905ef59f385c893b8f29add42f3b4e00","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112060157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4153158959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x56a161fce05c462bbe64fdf80b83f720406150b11ae2d35c94907ac3d0eace80","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616579483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58d6aefe2c32e491460bd0a115153ebeb67b77c801e092615ffa01f625148aec","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525836963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58e092763b1321e8368538bf5b78fc200d9409e105700e06eceb66b35ef371aa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0880654694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900325752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x617c7a90eda304d6875abfefa3638ecedb2fffe3321aa207a9e23e8fc686fb75","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787974043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730237938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x62f31557b0e55475789b57a94ac385ee438ef9f800117fd1b823a0797b1fdd68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541599856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x67443cb1ffb2bf180f7df5b6ca7adff63f7e8e933c7e41405ba118f3e9f8befb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526471372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x68469fb64aca83a6ae036946381e20a8c8d25b6e690da1b2bb23e250abc2a261","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152053854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535473675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7455e92b9e9c842ca260e65f0d640108223fd9f3430f997472825763654d96c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133915296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b4a1d4cd398a86c18b6bb9b5218917dc9f04b01a3cd4bae1c71ea345f15fa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5905761455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b5bfe44beb0641905f76ee2f32f96f47d8863bcad586678224a6dc02f03ad3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573971181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77eaf36a80197a13ff32e31f05b54e824a6fd21d93f1001abcc18ba8d9a7ed16","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5784600366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5009169083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638461069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x807a5bd3d52942c2d8b58bf71a583d4aa03a637f3fd9ff7a7c4a1ad818003067","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8768143887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d0139c21a36eaf6aacda9ccac75f58a45a9f2209b336351bebcce4ab11b3b03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617601984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x957b4d2b6a84c8bd4ef6e89f983d2d1a805be8d592e79177940058b66a204476","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529441242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x99108ebfee8726dd985c617e76bba8c9176f69407c9fb5f2242df830d42af129","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583005131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d24d9f9b5995949cb158d943793dea20bd448e1b3971cb6f7418bb15e719661","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595089345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9e54856d758cd7de25b75c97273a38d711642f16eacad57e61982028f2791206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538412618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa322e5cfd4c13c562553e4d18617be436c7ee24257b3b60a3757567ea99ce277","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528738799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028007501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa76a7ecac374e7e37f9dd7eacda947793f23d2886ffe0dc28fcc081a7f61423c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842326331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7abf914ff943453e41273a20df7ed5f10738bf34071d7a6a34e0dfd557b30da","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731065833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8533ac7382ad55fde02964b221eeab55da2ffe538a5da2c3f84449695d3ba8c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529737221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8c0a8ea0b9f3c6dc3ff1cd5163c280eeb075f17b23e50632f01a9da78683062","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803852337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad0144e9296cf5133595a42c2155be25c8f24eb1a79266c0ec81a40a2f806933","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574527137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147168527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbadc6cd0d0ea4a71e3cab24b4856311a5720866c2a62d805f2aeb1ddd0dba990","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1672634009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb0e4120b64af4ff962dae9fda5e73f3ea14c689dd22e4099adeafe69700e546","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862584688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067865937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc3d9deeb6a32be1d084651a5d55aba34bc54bc18fabf2af8bc94b30849d70033","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528903673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc4dba193fa3b80410da74fd559d7071cc8835bbd4651a75e1e9fb3c3d7bec780","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6828911204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc5e382cc0cda0a640c8687ed85e8182e006dfcc7ba3a6fa6c68d53e5782f5320","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057829934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce40c461a55895fb30e24da5d3b5e01c3e5ef3897808f0ccfd4d7a9fc420c7ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373738525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548605126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd459f7a9a61a7c36807a0a4066cbc1579e9b6277894baf778569f026ff5e69fb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533719327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe574324078501de57aa22beaaeafe461518a6556f0f97764bbbbd78d3a8e8048","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525478935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887421739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf2dacab4d4700731e0b39a055cd3d522711f8c25fbd4a86dd4945f6aa8f00a63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820742044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf34b156ecf111694d6e6841a7effb807f9483cb0cabfaa3e50283530d96d58ce","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570412496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf5bd04e6c5fb5400dd9deef7f67f2658b32430fc148f3ab52f011acf779fcb41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979523671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf5ec2524e8d5fdd9f4f7e1084ba14805fa78aacc9f31d58e0c713100c3a462ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1946743959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6717befc0ec8bb8389512c3739b5e4bca290f2a8a908e894cadb5a3785d9ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003526441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfccc16f3bba1210d40db55ee1b71c741be5b14dc3512aba5dc32de5c6e0c4bde","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5832748275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123171179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086116782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893568149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5835709787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178532487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1767292286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061069645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063876128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"CGb5hO1YNNR2bAPun9WF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781361838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"Cg6Oy62I52","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828601647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598854072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206776178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622989616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689403775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929462202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"Lc2SQtQQCg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810850385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"Q9gRdQ0Z9t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693521846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350224836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122569157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684877533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582905422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"cI9O2UsgOQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004584215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3761773226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"dUpnZIpOU8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679135757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"dy9yI9PLIh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558528931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097671923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"g6IOcCUnIz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1696311205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"hIZy2ULp8Z","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565352246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"llC0sSgzg8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7335730785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"ln62Z8L0Sd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913252705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"qt0dEZpUqu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417723922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"rF0NagHSV237D4FXYJgK","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642545017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033230352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"12117","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267249006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"18541","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092167325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115169775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"27208","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541512743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"29086","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079199834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712442976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6118702738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"35569","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217848969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"36487","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996146059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"37115","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554552129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"39322","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602991786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x089a0dcb8e611a4c913f3f07221d02ab481e9eb61009cfdce1750491f20fb4a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672255039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0c23ad7af38087ab27f94fd35eec62b4f53c0d6edd16bf04d85b7c456dc777de","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306759436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11db077700a35d7415b6198c5e5a53adcf1db1819a09831f7eaf148f88243c40","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549193201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12b6268efb832fe64bb746b9f50a51245b761d6b170e172b3cd81a7c4f39432b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100220975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x17815081230e3b9c78b098162c33b1ffa68c4ec29c123d3d14989599e0c2e113","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835656815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1ca2465222c60f5803c22fd94c6c40fa2321447f9af5be6f77dd1a5644355dd5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730113668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21d5b50fd0bc5013be79a7cdb4b3f0917127071cf27a324804c030f6eb06f5b4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201032525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x240f4f76613f69c1b5072abf9904a445c009cc526c2d301f7181eb33eb3785e8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772145635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x257b18205f908aef01ef2d1d50e6fea7d29cf5486fe04031d8b101394476faed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932117102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x25a4ea049d3bd46fe71ad8676feef9098bb37cbd9d9336280dd6188a7659813c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554820263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x277a7364c4d2c69d1cbf073440f674efb215471e444b0f52e65a49c5d38e195c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557192413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x310c3d08f015157ec78e04f3f4fefed659b5e2bd88ae80cb38ff27ef970c39bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602692908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537411823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x385458d81b805f220ccc137a23e5e24d1c6ecb61a189ba2edf8812b099129af9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550403078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3bc785525e9bb8e8f2e64ed116ee8b8169abca30a2beaa1b366365f220dbb1e0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.412709259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4928bece364d2def95c920459ab1fa54f449f99f33b0dbc93d6a84f80d9c9669","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784446883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e4e89fd4a8b605664a3745981cd9034905ef59f385c893b8f29add42f3b4e00","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678326099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4f7d83388f21541ec765e3eda3a9b8d2b5a3b20f0d7531fc4aa46089fb1bd588","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677152717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5203a95598f18205fa5d1fae7afdefedfbb356679f1ae6e3911c54883a462034","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518492143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e8e585d855c4288c3805064e74fc7ea1dab47dc0e9b42a0dbd9ca5f49c997f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214393666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5f8c3f31e7c3f5470f016e036848ff7495031bd45aec804b9bef539490866fd7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693895899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x607c517eec2acc6e4d888a725d2d73a99b2d1088f150f1b05470dd9d6ef19379","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955077613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x635be9337933a0e2b17c01b31e0f6017ac54fcbe409ef9cf533e7cbe8880429c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528863605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919546352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1585551466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7267c8c3f3db61dded13533b6707c3a3d45a5519aee71917052ddba3275d250f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026108885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524661935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77783da9b3549399a4bc0ba504f03c33f6cafca89f6ef5d96cb1d9492dfd22d5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605291811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7cfd30f4f97746310435098e61aef950463ca3ac02997c6a7b506cde13423be4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525796853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5385306266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552946242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8114cbebc2067256e7e399624ca5a0628d0e70204f55005a86dc0eb083171498","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657244376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600879763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093136048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8bf53bab21d7dfcd8f6c311c6f78d41678475e9184b6f16f5bbd5a9da3b1508b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529684896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e54ef30fcab377514426f2940753d2319443057577c2dfc38335bb3853142cf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898792626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9322e033c6dc8be6d8495cc44ac578abaa28a8cccdb783de1bff0026066d1d05","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277509987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x967cb0061acc3f6e52c3ba4ecd17aa1191e3d50418c6858a2dac66d45c5ac874","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636102271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ec16fa75bc05ef9f9fd786f7122bdec55e708586cee5cbe059fc1b297bead17","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528661603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa257136f50d15c4151d7fa6464cba6a6dfc5dfa325d9fb6e414f7b642ba84381","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966148603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa320756f4fc6ec9df78a0828ec4d6b5f92ac334044634566fc19cda36023f8e1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549916334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4e7e472e1f4b0f5a9e88c0d086053ef51bb4dc150cf861bef48232447d3b636","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052334167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818392127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464685391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb2abfc4e48334d87681240cd6a7e63c728e13973fbd68951b45bc86d6c4491e4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757666837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c4e7857dfd1fe47c1e6a11813aaca3f622a5f47769cd765be8c7a8336af555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520711542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2846f35e85eb09a094edbd4e93e345d3c682dc0436615adc27122222fccbd81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.16899036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc497f1ebe1bd67defd4484935758d242523b29ee36283025c16a32e4ddfb46b6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527658592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533886165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3320fd4b325ce3d629fbaffd90bebd0a4f45042d91bf207c9866704d630bdb9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729805664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3a26e8ca4f4dd9a7933e65fb1a36851b4527f7adadf477ca65106714ee26335","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157367937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd407fc7bc044a509b1eb3059d8a85af5493425d9edb677781dcc7a98c1554adb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638806238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd56c9ee002e2ae2766bb390373a18ecf78201df41533f2d7470f9440cbba18d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558808931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd837e5deb894a485d1c4558e81c31ea2192205c9a15c114a06f69f558db2499e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850378975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd87e6b4c5ee2c553ef726e9b6f788765bc6422d28ae31faa69e1d3838ee641d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572766583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4a2b3d43921a62fd693cbaca54249feec7b52fdcd5c7dd8c809a38179c1cbb0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177021395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059538987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeca33037ccf02ba4f3a22e863b33dcdbd4cd8946bd38d2d8aa200bdd2c185421","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697802947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee3898d16e04818aa853e39e1533b368ad57ca092ec0e6298ccdf41b62786ab9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6859367788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeefdfb2a32f7304c9f07a7a752731529b6b28085c02cc711d9714f9f0511fc14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700958476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf18253f5c0b0ffc42172a435892bbcbdaab54119e874580148961e298dad6263","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815520221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb0c98ef42c5c48b5ecca31e555aa0565a31958261e2d6c7b4cb15bbd417cbba","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673537661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752813647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006652827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817114742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5923843269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984887711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1639279819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628230554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1674","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7588061357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1675","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106372126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848558104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529108175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635493276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615651631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537629615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638419054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606493997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975659064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768477442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609022384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"RzsZN6SlUp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158597237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"W8iOAuLrMal2MAwPPg62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949073418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829346471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"cI9O2UsgOQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918124527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"d2sZ8AIILQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9230617039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7142124738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"dUpnZIpOU8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656153656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276895631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"fXpDY62ibnxfUbqAaAEC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354683157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"hPU6PpN0Zg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628773433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"oj4g2w07uo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5015422756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184700846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"qt0dEZpUqu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4122967011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"rF0NagHSV237D4FXYJgK","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708363881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7683860788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4153958901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"24814","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798412059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844844564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"27208","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575097632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"2937","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746761498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773799292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6062319774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"35569","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119135433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"36488","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903250699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"38712","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291954923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"39756","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.196786227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"40437","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995001696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"5768","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7625874268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"7444","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4685241806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x085126eca944aa0780b425fcc46ab7276cd02f2f59b7934ca9e5ddccfbc03ea6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547773386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x099952efaf314cb44fcc6179e1fd8ca309e473f7dd924e980a381b70648f2887","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692198535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807025278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0c4c1d224e536067363a96bb1916acfcfef47d503b8838c0113a39104ac05428","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139466404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d82012de5e3275b934dcf446b1cce93705b37e9ffe22470fd6caf7411d1d1f6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588369401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2049638936027998accd2d320af8a7838ed1f673a00d0a22a288d5f678015e03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723020478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21bdabe2791e7a70a02829be6a3dd7452fd4f6cba3b1fa1abed109941d8864d2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612275661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x23b63fa147a0fa4ea0869c83885fd1dfde6830981790984634efb72620a47975","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566509663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x28c6eb83627e96f11777ff333703d5bdbb15799c4df7e8f290049464e54198cf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552083012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e51ed86458e0a53ef3a2e882d2f857683dfe41822c2c26176c971e25a5a8db2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561761487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669962288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3d64b85493b8e6602ea4dc4ebfa1e8b998594c8439e4e0d730ce6e44f7e587e3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537483848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ef4a5e6c74f646ce7126c7283b1a679c76db679b3237c2c6eaac27249b13dfd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328499821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x528f7bcfd3328a767e72e8d27ea7d345a861ec94c81004f347e571c08a3b00dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582869841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x53511c6b839a6f653f7b5b3e1e6b8e0f90b8b62a3a55731b47158f5057f8f23d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713099757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5df1f890ef485a7a79a4bce4b3c7bb4c12b2e09a65809bbae8cdfa04e5ae9ada","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550282612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737727024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6d1ed397657b875e9908b33609df303fe66938fe2a7af7f36c39fb45b3b0a1c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606000093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515835482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x71731ea04b650cd0d6d644c947f3d53200ed50f10688591863db1a36b464a22d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591323558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537147344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b5bfe44beb0641905f76ee2f32f96f47d8863bcad586678224a6dc02f03ad3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556237052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79fe1c0701d145ed4b74e6b7b3658acbc9b016b70e7321afdb777ad14e8c236c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551536501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059881039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609212003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x830eb792fa2f2a591b5a0610a76400f80228629105f4f5896434be777665265c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659821678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8370b54d8b25a8a408ddb402ff7a03178139f59593ee97c03a10a43523516404","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021540979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x850c1624dc9d8ca9850195df05293ff85273e6b92e89a9551cd0a57c2f72aceb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988864129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x89c555d51c3ec91cda2cc7ee12f8d69b2376f81c46b0588c1616579de7ac8c62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682686301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8da154fd9e7dbe6b0f22ab3626f36da576bdbffe533e4528fa7fd3411ae898bc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707629072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ec16fa75bc05ef9f9fd786f7122bdec55e708586cee5cbe059fc1b297bead17","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548194839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074375009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640807971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3576442254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xafa3f21a2211a95b222a0704d1b763a48770905ff090b0143ae724013b51dbaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657810531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb5f6d7f3158494f1c433c25237e61cd33eec00943a6cd95d67b1d0b06cb7ce2b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770749508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xba6ca85827ba3fbf64fc67e3c14283dd0ea82a1ce780609a7c4f6bf469748757","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538204856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbaf7780f9059e34b84301fd411f8dc573b4d56adfe6e0cda33daf304b1438da4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530113893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbc19b7dee8883e27c2e617cfa9a8875c5f014643f760f72121f4a769b19536c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1322259753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd52b67bf1d97f233f1ab26362496091e04e27e2442cffc0803ad4a462f8cd45","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562618996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbe1c736f56cade44537b90c07edb9209eba1ab044fa57b6f3900b8fd26570c61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577409657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058873528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c4e7857dfd1fe47c1e6a11813aaca3f622a5f47769cd765be8c7a8336af555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531303926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2db6688c6df422104ee751fad721b03ade9c50a8b3c85588cfe4a20ae62ff63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034625496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc62d6e935097ab9bfd31790bf222e863b6a1509d2ae4602762ee6b8ec4acc07a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071566116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc2bd8cbba68f1fe46e89445b61e2c581ea96527438889eb749a852fba647920","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571637719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce00f57f6c107650846b17205996ba79979a94b942c5665b2d525599669c13af","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112813101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce4459c8dfc2b0800778305722ee9a2ad2c62f001c8a40d5e0b136c9e6a679d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531255785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd19badcb162eedeecce239e19a99e90f1b7751ec043f86d3dd5176c582a4316f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567657176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3a26e8ca4f4dd9a7933e65fb1a36851b4527f7adadf477ca65106714ee26335","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810453315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde03be115f0b584287ca34466b6d813dfc64d32771be3bff04b048a4bbe5569f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583120969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdfeb85c9ead70f3bd0745bb8fec317a21fda07780453d239a255afaa72a190b0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586385754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe202539dfbeced92dc4112f134a205c80ca6cf4db32bd82f05b291c297219fd8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535065342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3273590962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe9b8664d3302d33a25b0612989da47a520ec005d1da55fd73f85750a8837513d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566672045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xea378c9f7da196849f2afc2d56ccb2efa087bd76e02e30c44748c0693520c201","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246655561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeaab9021b99acc38699821455c9332838c88f1609071f7f2e39da2f56e52d9e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576947652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xed01e807e649339cb23739f6735fb9c2284560cbd7bd9ad210c786127fb5f66a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564462641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xefe3a05506e08fefb8c1998aa607fcce31e32a6852ef60bee4c71d0935c97950","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533679932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf06011674951b6a853154b841dda3bf555f72f5514d9a64b50a81de836a6c19c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555957049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf2b177d6267194487880857175f9876fb2d352188f681dfe8bb732a665512305","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047153388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4b2d2cc364a536813bb400a0aac9dce912e8c880f4f368bdbcc59256d50a3f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130451756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfc4453f83b30fdad8ac707b7bd11309aa4c4c90d0c17ad0c4680d4142d4471f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556333178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfdc5e6ae42b83659ba19f06ec0051c001ad5f9679f4b0b4e4dbaac5c6e82f4e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530078892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729654505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001620888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747081456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5945006279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771647088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717764732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626849014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1674","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7494271493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1675","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386324129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816690813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945588317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"09U2cQZqCR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071290377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574188444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"6A0Csq0Z9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300133843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"6MyYH9TqA0FgSsx7Pare","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556856496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532684047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"7L7arFnaO0Nom1bLY295","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739009037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7542617546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194508202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274613731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059474822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803028136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148669853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606416864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744460852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"d2sZ8AIILQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9613274028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"dy9yI9PLIh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571138092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"hQQPLApOcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594747362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"oj4g2w07uo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5259812171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1400716609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7268629034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084528044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"ygZRENPOg5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2042912659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539407849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"zqPzgyRyu9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026632112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554410787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"10220","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803625991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"15370","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5332762219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"15602","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264918005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"17095","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650762329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"17110","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797713431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"19949","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136079104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"20172","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818174018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854680546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"27208","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672671067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"39002","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8306057037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"40407","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972064822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0398ee767efc168f65bb148d7ac5874406ecf38b0585262c259c07b72a40b362","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771538267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1538772106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596676866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257035919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x098e2be3df8ab529940c567819f8ef007cf007820e9d627642a5bbfaa42af372","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528509625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d82012de5e3275b934dcf446b1cce93705b37e9ffe22470fd6caf7411d1d1f6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563575507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x10b0761fd0412d6ea433ced8d4b0aa589c11831aee0f6f96383468526c979818","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659999125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12993004a50c8a25454afbc8ccea7a52f9e6f5ddfaa218feea52a4e95cd874bb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883064999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14aa27565d1f23e7770fb56459deafa6d4e179753e936ce0a6b24fa874e939f1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595486478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b74c3efe140a09049e0eb6b6a2112e00fa4d199cdc718c1a58af1abf6d9e49d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544029794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x243e5b9e30e381aaf91ee500db1be548210e8bb8c2a463f5bb3f86ffe8ac3f86","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591551311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x293ca6031d80a410833bacb197ed6c193e79b0cdaaf6539d8b0f88f245e1ddd8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533159176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2beb6918bff42cd269377fffeb7d458c1e18a06efa56097de608397dd8d640b4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645146268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e24ca91d308d503fa3711b0ff3b4c40e0d971e72bbc8012448c0ece02328a69","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115252247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2ff4e1a7dd9e8dcd56ae537b2a360e1dfb7cc0498849af11d275e10de13e5635","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539299743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x313787d313815069851d81a35de415dcfd9e223ced2a0ab19fcf9ad367ff0a76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7756466563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542448402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3bfe92e518e3cc7f569b70cbafcf40449bd9498c7159129275c33822500457b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558094947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54416d15d2428ec5fb1e6f2e646f0fd570f367be80d9dd285c479c8e9ce238a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255006891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54e136864bfd047505b0911da4246b0317d2a7305708bde3026b54699abead92","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141421787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869431706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x69d6b4d10ccd09a4f78bde4510cacdc9900db0e9b24d4cffcc1fe9f686f94253","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676703736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ee22365b6602d928aa7136f549cc0d718bb16b044a6d15191041b84b5f1f43d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366169605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044956114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124979353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531756541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x752a5087b40fea78569dfedb2257bf7499eefb50970fded264c94af8b40c1027","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657179524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7601fef4bc7a7c280d4a7c3c3575afd7f3902b360f01ce2ec0bbaa03df65a105","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084361455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7a250aca74f2938d9fee6b975cc5a588de54c25a673e272e0884023bc1be7a61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681112784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7a6a33627efd7e57152db2ee806570408e019bd72967158d4bc630863207c6e1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05836806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7b11f426ea2f966b193d4a30bca3b9a7a94e1972dbf3fe095d41d21a4793029a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612139534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5468963699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056575303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058273359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x850c1624dc9d8ca9850195df05293ff85273e6b92e89a9551cd0a57c2f72aceb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231080137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8947925aa89cdf1e70d7755df73c099c1977d322fb64ac20a2d2ee9850c9f913","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181535593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8b89c599a91f9d6520e24bf1be251cb87cf43267cefa3cebccfc6f685aacff1a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6502401557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x92d98653c47967f7516f20ebc4bc04bf21d59cce083431cdcc9b3eaa0ed2bea4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1657325395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9954b4eef49a268b810bc260ee9278361e29a8f6f4ad816a804dd613ef73a968","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715574534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d24d9f9b5995949cb158d943793dea20bd448e1b3971cb6f7418bb15e719661","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647698296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055609955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668362645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa95216e111897ab824478333cefaf4cf6d21e5bfa159fe8a6c5cdc294edf368c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610941646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb7f9d3f61910ecf7a5e6e46f487a039e91a92b68585f05ec9b22cb34d3804bbd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132194687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbad74413f87762c2b4423dfcd72ccce4c561bc59f33e7ed474b33ef917b802a0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529831765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd9fd3b8f8d03be096d57504e836bbc0bf46853184302a75787d68d2f6ffe273","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711042109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc798fb82e89b618fb35e32f3c23933b0b69ee7a3e917e6d05e5052127ef72a6d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559414461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc8f7efe4f5cf3c6d5b51cdd87cbd360e7f2a3b9999f6b8fa96d2dcd96e287141","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541334265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb8af0c28d73c486a1bd1080eb4183709cc4cc3eed4420c7551d6298b0adb6f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878031924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc2bd8cbba68f1fe46e89445b61e2c581ea96527438889eb749a852fba647920","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559463587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc7d2919c23e00507e33848288f15fb3473e536bad6e94e355ae71e7e651ed0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5928359318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd01204c643956b06dcb7ec56f07ea473bdc9e61a7c29bd1318df0e249b1050ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558543952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd1754bc54ec5b0af53339ad69d868bcdf5510242212a400db22bc865b103bbfb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549010728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4a2b3d43921a62fd693cbaca54249feec7b52fdcd5c7dd8c809a38179c1cbb0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827465119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939764334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768622954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858654214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728869898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4477765426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948299008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1692076827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622637428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1675","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576148367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800839085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355907952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798818296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622929821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"25QZ5yn8hQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472221974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538478423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"7L7arFnaO0Nom1bLY295","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684214193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"86c2ccz9tQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0892068587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7008311739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"CGb5hO1YNNR2bAPun9WF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176004204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731265418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767699138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259213243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"P0OAOZIpyq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009519875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"Pd59AAtPOR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603726906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635375882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"R2PYH7Cwjk59eILygi1W","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591190978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"RzsZN6SlUp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138210627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886551889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410569431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6808030524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680497039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3388514719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"fXpDY62ibnxfUbqAaAEC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636659811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"g6IOcCUnIz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1693465433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"j65AKQZQCjgqa3erm88N","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078901125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774662622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"qR35cYHecZVxkh7n8kJ8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566824922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"qt0dEZpUqu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568035715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168735329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17408","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891130942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"22560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652823852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816717633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700241367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"30344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786925309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"38671","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476618306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"4919","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6616388671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02665608f02cd63c26bd78a419f932db289b5300fefc0e18e50b151349fd85b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552124757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578871673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268974174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0cd467df4030e7da99133ae20665f0905e6a9cbc6706d11c87712730a0434170","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001728269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x15a18c82b90f8f6de9bdac99dd763865910338fcab9366b119fcf8d372d4768b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197495272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x182b89f680380a2428daedda8d8fca19416569f8c3fcec997f00780f69f81f4c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959281308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a5edf9d6f7813a5289f8e410c5a033abbd52576fc1a2d44aa34f2a4c86303c1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781035375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1df6862b69a47872e75864cac21b9ae9ea0cb552884d38aea9170c5fe5321bc6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073130283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x216cfc5952a75a6c2005fa90a1f49524401abdde826aaa916af4c88a70426363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565171399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2ff4e1a7dd9e8dcd56ae537b2a360e1dfb7cc0498849af11d275e10de13e5635","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539285743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666645632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x366c465e379145d0ec1ae70dfcaea8f69cb42e769895edfb420888891e3df9f5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605460837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b1a3232b14a029f96a3e1b04a5d8dde31575d74024389b53631e73b4a494480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553824901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b7e03065f6437f93e3aa6fc2cb4ac0af068d7c8b0ffb32e26296b078feaa507","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":1.0271829528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3fe28ac4aee597a761ce00692605e9b8701a544365eb781ddb7453fb10ae31fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.40061603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x41da88e6d6db2ebf5fbb868d93e97c3052121a59d1222c00774119427ec9efe1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055020848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x44416d349bbeb6edcbf23027e6966ec1fce5a9b7d64d26fd3529f9465c40c450","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531771161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x468d2a45052a19334bd591db94acae2a55294e337ad2fb7c2a49430cd244a811","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654441999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x552c0807e8b239ef4e7ecb9d9e192519ba283acb731c5bd89b6b1cda658a2f8c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600561409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870934847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60acc46cda1f0619259acf3ef8c77bf734ff08cbed256ca3d1e9444138e21266","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908417255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60c447987af838c9a074ad7d44751135be94a20580982b72d76e9b542572bfe6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667663513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567735927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x69b009591dd768c3878e2ff9b28b8661e039409ea2f156ad70aa5224c08702e0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158564849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6aff6e0b36e00aef86b91c825b2e67561e172faa4b5ad0db7c91a38c87774826","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594475842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6b2e51f006ae5613849c3913db2a766390a05c2d67bc8b0b0872d3d63cb517ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775898814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e6a763252b7d1773a82e293be9e3c689a245cf07a3053bc93589d99b4ee0916","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528537556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77eaf36a80197a13ff32e31f05b54e824a6fd21d93f1001abcc18ba8d9a7ed16","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.649158544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7a250aca74f2938d9fee6b975cc5a588de54c25a673e272e0884023bc1be7a61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691262894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7bd85b3f517c51a036127fd585193e811754662a33e0657fae6f2dee09755c39","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543538789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7dd03775ae64ca4da06121fd75397e3a16cd54bd02a52faee8c22799e34b8458","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547620208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549117599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x80075f84b96d341fa75f7d95616607d23116f6fb41cf44f1d079f6fd6524b601","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129297631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81d74bd6a217892b3835dde991233ac5ba181741fcc51904980b98865c20530f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549238351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x86d3e198cc89b22d04ea77fd9d760b557d934d04d974578526ac4b063d588113","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081361134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x88fad6af135ca7cbd55a8bda5a1243125ded68b1e521066009cc990b13960b88","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612362537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x92d98653c47967f7516f20ebc4bc04bf21d59cce083431cdcc9b3eaa0ed2bea4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706012979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x94867c89a77b18380ce1bf85006f3ccf2ef5252e0dc6319677aaf615bd857bf4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529701138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9883c17e49888b1e1fc4227d3eca7f4dc7d8394157073714f57965cb31ae5f57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780287737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ec16fa75bc05ef9f9fd786f7122bdec55e708586cee5cbe059fc1b297bead17","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794477516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa15eb6144875ec22c24b18c6f34e0ce2d5783765f740de9a4ac0e8fdb10fa832","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8460996226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735863379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8b8e51444172fa84241a90ada79de23ea3ae3a3eb7262fa99f206d147bc8df5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627752704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaa368b9b8a22b8fd9338f3e46b4ce5f856233ac5ff45e30557384846279acee7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207599382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xafa3f21a2211a95b222a0704d1b763a48770905ff090b0143ae724013b51dbaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582730715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xba9aa10e79d2411a71685731968a8dd15662d1d900173f189c3261174bde1108","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258996065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbacb4cac4e7ceecce559529eb0111f0db4e45cbcc739db3957acc885a8f82173","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05353517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc848576777751e56a4db0eb5e7d4c764afbe80e116fc75584e69c0914be0a5b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584575115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc5494faf5ceca60a77a46db255b8c8e30b1bcc7d94d9138f5d4e945bba1ad34","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493920494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3a26e8ca4f4dd9a7933e65fb1a36851b4527f7adadf477ca65106714ee26335","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590473179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd56fc2650cd0885e6aaec513b12fed083cac789b70ec6a48314fbfb079f6ef4d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810815069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdb4143780c085f54f82e6baf461e4df46ad900df8148d03258da93cf2c64b165","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184828185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde9fec321fb6a4a264d6d012ad2bfee3b29e123797ce02765dca14cae96e26de","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887626529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe26424b7a84fe280b7202c5bd8a6c2763985510ff6a2c663c7aedd23881f7c79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636069294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161754747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xec80d091f823b3fc853a3fdb01e3c18500d7e4d1405d54815e41ae54eb719962","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1695872689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0de2f1576cf959a259b5ffb9771f927da827e3bf7bd21e6385b3a10216646e4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707590072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4b2d2cc364a536813bb400a0aac9dce912e8c880f4f368bdbcc59256d50a3f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893813971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf66b13dd3447b8908fe4d3cfbfdfd9e6a18f506f6d694af5ee3c800d907b1301","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054824134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf8a6ec4f777d3453e9171ebb219eb3d79dcf5b38d247e514f437bd2dfc834d47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917544092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf9eec8c6bd3bcd3effa86198cddf3283c550a52e7dc3441f3d786a08285d90cb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546181072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfd96c4b3a2776ef499ff06ceb78948b62eef81c1d645a4f82aacc0632fbac36d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594945723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451250065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627853967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748731476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838248205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.490197472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672458848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884171595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309786984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"Lzdc89CSzq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617268731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063035881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326346366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430125767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7314875955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106978074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"metaculus","id":"10220","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054888329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5283647334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"metaculus","id":"38917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592766988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x005866e059fa8deb3adb20f9b169a61a63a7289d55c6f3758bb105ee06ca7dca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106167818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x089a0dcb8e611a4c913f3f07221d02ab481e9eb61009cfdce1750491f20fb4a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067943925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d44a3b546096156afdf40be8f37bce617970ee3d0901d35f4ade50d46ae18a8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6458616237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1858125f6f8bafdbaa63b3bb90cb0a01ffb8f1f2ab56fd71484135b8fa624986","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738033347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x18b1dc1565575cb2ff48bbc078070170ca3278691860cca7c97131fc657a9530","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630923052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1d54eb5eac2cee8f595f3097c65da7d07f8ab5dee63d7c0c6883eb70e1e9af30","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043659227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1e5efe84a9a890e61044d77ea6e182f39b06d5b382c851b926cad54cb4972e68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900290764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x257b18205f908aef01ef2d1d50e6fea7d29cf5486fe04031d8b101394476faed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703712354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2701e5a5b751418c5c5bf0faaafdea60ac9fc893eb75fd88e902cd97458d375b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595044488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2c2a97f760dd525d97c9bfbed6fe3329bc835c2d6899e14b017ed6e8ae63a1fb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725659133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e1a4dc939f815ba720dc1eba072191c2271bb0ea2fc36c54535db0121d8c48d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059630712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ddfb68ae4ca088d2ae91ed40d88a3a68266b9855bea5e33f8a8e1d53ab5ff2b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772080199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f34e931e2457b68c4acce8c4f4d0f5e5a1a9d68afb44afb70af88478718dd76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653701874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e16c5196f59f08fad56fea688a65daeba2e5be79b7c04acd56ca7395cdb0885","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104483607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fe305a2ae995a52ff278895344895fe587b4fec3d5f04347b4dbf5e99bce99c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535698823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5deeed404db866c400ba881b376216c3c2bf0b3a3e9372cc61a1395ac3d83e37","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139856625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6680cae9b37261f6c1ec3313f9ad175708bb9722e94285b5b0a5b50a9972d312","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577409088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6956a94cc63efdd5bccae33b4cf8a0880df301116ccf1f329cad25683392044e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537533429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6987d084de71031819f82051ea62b29a354628c3e4a22076a2acc197c776080a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438606714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x72b25fe7b05903658eea56ffd995dc4f0f252d49d6a9a202bac103dd29ab2ba5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571267639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x75a306decbed1a9668d948fc331a899a3809defb55734e2eb5c2dbe1d4a3a03c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564890269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b9efbaa8958fc73ebbdfb6649eea71bec2abe28d1e88988a0a8064caec8c41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554700645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x796f36313d1142d739eafc84298b81832a1fa0efd4d332fdc7f03a9a906ff012","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136028272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79bc9eae1f5ce8f3f58648f45e7ff7cf182a8314e2d1a5b536520c5cc4b3e097","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637106475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7dd03775ae64ca4da06121fd75397e3a16cd54bd02a52faee8c22799e34b8458","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571831718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8b8213717b514954ca6372540403fd11ec624db18deb943b99f2ec40f5c38908","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059930231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8cd80bf80e98abaf64e504363ffa8f557a9cd7b0c6cce02590bfe8025c329691","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369554658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x998acf9ed1bbda06d59df70786441468872c72b2de59cacbea93625b14a5efcb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713070313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb1e4027b58c6321ede3fd8e3737b2b440ccb51fc569854795f67dd407b3569d0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557824483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6f3732fc2464da2ed17f4270dc87ac59a2b4b1ed711d491f9584ca9a783c95c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653649243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb7bd534d9050f6d00f42fe5aed6e8a7fb0e1e633db19f4299436d11434324ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629490157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd34bea66b3d5850bbba37d2697059cf9ae4f5e6abb7a60a9fee41aac6e60b77","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852173512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbfc25a82b6a6476895991401059bab3a73df1a9278400d70dfad080774a981c4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064511339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc23d4f3a1a96576e93f32ab1806c6d85f5a3d1925df7c80bdb97cfd6787b4dfc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669595574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6b173db2582f7ccb12b7e541ab510934013b2640006712ae35507ff75d707f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568456986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6241134461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcd14407814c97e5fa5684e4154a63be045c048365a8b12acab3f20bc9286d3a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730878082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3320fd4b325ce3d629fbaffd90bebd0a4f45042d91bf207c9866704d630bdb9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733435451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd6203f8805d1812e3b189da3f6036989940a415ae3a0fecf83555b455394fdb8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563141321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd87ac5bb74a21061d4f223d2a83c0269607fcb6d4c74d5a3d3220209d089431a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615576995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xda5e93ecce25875195aeed7d427f16e9edab7296ea5d02d841ae733ba2a8a89f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553564476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdfeb85c9ead70f3bd0745bb8fec317a21fda07780453d239a255afaa72a190b0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060875594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xef7924196f13374e10ac52ce8cd50bb0693379f4bdb84a266ff267c2e879c33d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552027107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0d4ee47d3abe6161f1e8f93bfe46d06d1ffd63f48e71c49aa81b2250e152e8b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4342910211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf8b730810252255fa217a2828b46b7a3c0ed63b702c817461270ce9e65b5ec25","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5332765769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1595333431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604911786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761397262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584451571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5057193714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070553068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4587498674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631197185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"OlHuvYpfpmCSXcIwM7OL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5516576307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"OpRRgcB6cymEfMe3a1sG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145514182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627847754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"n8ZROwk6GKcLyurigsf1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040878131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473256587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318903943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4976295055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"metaculus","id":"8393","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993401763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x089a0dcb8e611a4c913f3f07221d02ab481e9eb61009cfdce1750491f20fb4a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735353459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0bff0cefecebc11a15257b08d25133e6599b75df5dc2a5633bff7ed73f6a9eb3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715450742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x18b1dc1565575cb2ff48bbc078070170ca3278691860cca7c97131fc657a9530","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615099777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2239eba5e038d08aa4ced697362abce36aad9602a412cd1288b8a1164d349c80","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671049385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x246be1739bccca6ecbaeac3d92755fd1ca5368bbb1f588e86d2b8f2ef0542948","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908263338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x251b46a4b02dd818bcaf26d5f84d3020d677428a66da715237c7bb764291b8bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811279909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2701e5a5b751418c5c5bf0faaafdea60ac9fc893eb75fd88e902cd97458d375b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578659756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2a6b222354f86941b5fb5571a9256b8db85d6ab468ba7f865e43cefbfb83b812","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956212484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x33c6c4906d923ac54100a3c760965ffb7ba9f49d9767597eb2358adaf89f9817","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870500553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a07c5ebf7294febe753c18e89a29c74691e700dd61aa6d67081a6326538e887","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645541255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3c1aea7dfcae8dc154841d900f59c58c0c6ffcea1fd2942a680595ffd35a46ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670670756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x403b8deb760c51691df6dcc9a6aa080846ecd280d49d3786865c2d9846180aaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528104206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4d162a40c3e3f458b0e0017485d7f9e6ead0cdd0573e38b26e0d5420525ccfa4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5085046237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4d594c1480eab1db09f6c04c089f92d0a45844bdfae32a6f3f8391f99a1ea081","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572162685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ed6fda2009f12fd706a2283ae5288d739d9d314914d28b57badc3b2383e8791","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060164813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x528f7bcfd3328a767e72e8d27ea7d345a861ec94c81004f347e571c08a3b00dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549965569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x53e409b11e90081ba2cb0834a391e1208dd4c87ac817e4c76a5125cd2b647a9f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541909856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58234757c9519ddfffdbc8f33bea3b172d5a55a7fedb07c6df4fed1e97ba1ca7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8646584948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c5d898595b3445dd3809896302889cd512411fa8306de609d9d8aa34e257ba8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759817225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60c447987af838c9a074ad7d44751135be94a20580982b72d76e9b542572bfe6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676949449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x63bfc2579cb54eaad635aeccea2dab1093d316e905089969e1f149e6c26e7d74","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597205457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74a960f6e74324d124183f786467b089beebaaa34b075181c55e823b18bde048","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829178104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x756f82fea9416b9a5437bca4ad5f2fd84597986ec5e83562f8cac0907dc694de","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563800219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7858c69bcee88426d6ee415e3b70e2f3f31c2ada1b3c68de7e37ce7b39014d3e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547159413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7c6c69d91b21cbbea08a13d0ad51c0e96a956045aaadc77bce507c6b0475b66e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851251343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7f3c6b9029a1a4a932509c147a2cc0762e1116b7a4568cde472908b29dd4889d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523566782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x826e915d9919bea5881b73bcb5e571917e641492e838c7d4ee655de66d244c4c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622425856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x90943e0279054a865ee966f348d90c28bd55338ff4d2e8013c86fad695380f31","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678101336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9e2b02521ae3622a8d0b373035b7f15479f5e3990f97411c2c1846cf36f93a57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528734713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa32a00faf9ac4f49c0a2742341304513d6816bec08219bfc48f85d7a013c9ddf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627499911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4b876bf8805e74965adfe3c3f9e951d4b9f5d152bc0f81e6896f46346dfc4a2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735299083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaa2717e3d40735de7c52f16d5dbfe0e796e11691ad128ef90a81c81d0afa750b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639699044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad29cf2f3839f6090c3ba8a0b6753d3af77ecced5c24ab10348ecc64067c04a8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4908556818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb42cf911da8aa39a9f634c190120f5c36f7301b69b15d20aa23382ac350b830d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646857187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbc2ae4fc90814b307933e5edab31351de8ca003cc9f6fd5805843936dafa07e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052156276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc512e0c0fa2d19ad6fe8bd885b3089a80fa2bf8382c104321c7359e7014cf567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821628021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc91b876622103c6cceaed067f6e3ea4cdcfe3052ba4ef9fba094c9ef8e501f0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655220088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd2016eb15c8b61cb95fe512a0c91f43fc46793e9ac0a30595d08dcffe637fdd2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596754077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd474ef9b31935d47c24b3178346fd82182ffa1a222d8f29f24b84b1850698bcd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536979928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdb4b2f370c3d0e996fbb32213c87aa5402936e3d4882432b6738e2f5661b79a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769401029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdc609df6c167499ecd2beffda05a1ddaeca7ed3269a805f7b9a4afd5e96cf2e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719098907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112487296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xea545a6f18395f2e6a6edb3154e19ac51fd5b1296e56e4e77a7067e392a6943f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1718354768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xed01e807e649339cb23739f6735fb9c2284560cbd7bd9ad210c786127fb5f66a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553822986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfbb2046e013da7b66ecedf3a9de63ce446fd57c23ccc77cd019991f485522236","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750849252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187548933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611390614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697335836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376776383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.435633436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631766939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3953265222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584520765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"92gdnLROgN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8186474233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"HvTJLPAMNrSMoSORu3tm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5733398205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"OpRRgcB6cymEfMe3a1sG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108423267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"XOJ8Tfrg8s2iqPFwauO8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693481482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717913899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"dzuCO2pcpu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299737778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502533853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"hughuOcEOl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248466656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121470514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7252046398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5019458194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775372326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41370","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142393451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41462","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5726750287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x06331f454adc15cc3c7b0c2eda3c688630b1d5f3ab4c2238a666e4a8babef9f3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553751915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a441ec0b47718954c379432ecd9fc384f9ed77d4aa83da3bb5734201c741979","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577216047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1e2c5a317dfa33635671394f2def49273f6e84ab083fadcf2a77493f78c8d02c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055766452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x22e7b5e35423e76842dd3a5e1a21d13793811080d5e7b2896d0c001bd5e97d54","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075432948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2701e5a5b751418c5c5bf0faaafdea60ac9fc893eb75fd88e902cd97458d375b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735540649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2cde05f9ccf7986b8ff404d74dfdc7d026792f6ae18a8438c8af714b19269802","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219154808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x30779a5b03cff9251d259bc0a94e49d12a18eb501170fff2420da55370ecf297","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713792583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f34e931e2457b68c4acce8c4f4d0f5e5a1a9d68afb44afb70af88478718dd76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787257633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5ccfe1b69a582d2985db08a8481a0d74c314b1fce9b4711ae2efb2c6467fe6aa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054263873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x61ce3773237a948584e422de72265f937034af418a8b703e3a860ea62e59ff36","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575634139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x641f7bc48e2a81d1483fc40d05e9be1abc44d60a83b283142ab6a7d101e73232","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652272911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6987d084de71031819f82051ea62b29a354628c3e4a22076a2acc197c776080a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206163874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x69d6b4d10ccd09a4f78bde4510cacdc9900db0e9b24d4cffcc1fe9f686f94253","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582505072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a642e9f63da8d3c1fc1ea5f027c9b1433b99731dca58a27e01b36de965d1d67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711109573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ab02effed0b2fb10889ea2495d3dd67024045b11c6736a491f3185cc276511b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574050898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ec3b68de0b4da93d1b670b71772c6ced34ad368113de107021fe70adad18847","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089547199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x707ab64115b0ca83b65bc5137aaa947a11f56885ed82ffcedc3c5b70e1210151","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619014776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74a960f6e74324d124183f786467b089beebaaa34b075181c55e823b18bde048","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705644558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x796e791e7058571e460278814fc7a3183752285338f1400087b98bef3c447908","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604163142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d5d324974fd30f5b011c0c7e041e50d3cb8af7a5483eb5e69fae955bfe3cc8f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567935255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x94cf8bf4e55498de75450a5a219182732e6cb9261861e13baa910ad1c2b642b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545952536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa0e9a3826b017bcab72b8cd53d6b83069b706c81d3202aa4870f0ef6b8d01371","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546368352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaa1144ea191942775190a6d5021f1954191bfc168d2b243072afcd130f6ec716","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5780084677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb1e4027b58c6321ede3fd8e3737b2b440ccb51fc569854795f67dd407b3569d0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895896799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb215decbedd846168842f6e207f09bd5f50ce51d2191f238887d976ec21b6f66","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612815138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb6988ab627c10bcdfb56471699151aa19aa7d4816e286b5d9e362f99225196c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292940365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6b173db2582f7ccb12b7e541ab510934013b2640006712ae35507ff75d707f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610481274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc91b876622103c6cceaed067f6e3ea4cdcfe3052ba4ef9fba094c9ef8e501f0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737785184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde7d04363a3ccbb4a2bd27b052cb045997d87e0cf2f2f565fe18021b94860061","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596783573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe56b65d978c8bd65b4d24a0d093929ab23711816d039d7a3ceac5b7280b61564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753001797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6120576744ed4a770a37a962e5e1f13eca78070b05575c9dc118cc64cf000ba","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530233953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf2591ada43eda11c5923f0190307d2cc5f5d994695a654779c3dd328ff820d55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494997033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf772cab339a0049446f8e0183865a1c68ae7df3512d73c48bc3d1c2d5061f77b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651312893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119508928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645773309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704895328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358782867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4659984593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650522904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744850882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036918777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1722","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778516317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1723","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455850033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121314184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1726","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868257703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"0IUCA5s8EN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9105456432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"OlHuvYpfpmCSXcIwM7OL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5378627627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"OpRRgcB6cymEfMe3a1sG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103066296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678086516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6829880457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065945445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117210003},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837800623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6911286217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553672645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"metaculus","id":"38917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583961847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983095943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41861","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609033821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x03ea417a6e1705498427bbe8fd89b922664db3020f196595d5c2a88826c7434c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570550965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x098e2be3df8ab529940c567819f8ef007cf007820e9d627642a5bbfaa42af372","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540757389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x15ba9c42b7b541d4acfcf44ac0c9d1e7740f4e3d320868b2eb2543596a2d2154","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523260341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a441ec0b47718954c379432ecd9fc384f9ed77d4aa83da3bb5734201c741979","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727660984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1e2c5a317dfa33635671394f2def49273f6e84ab083fadcf2a77493f78c8d02c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557747905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x22940303dcf84c7f3a9b51389f6ebdc81c9bdb2e8c5dc1d86eeefd38f3040118","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650995121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x384a78b847edbafb7f4542dcde7000f0042d08a43ad12f11879050fbbf06b0ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940367077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ff31d74cdc64db8bac526592434f63f7d924a40d10c1476033f4e7c97c65dad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541315977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x406a62740107092e26426b8bb42fceb0a698b79c7ec3bf6955ece180b0fda107","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645711843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5d4cf7d6906e944867c78a56c426799808eeb070826e06b2cc3079f21d387006","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597119436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e9392d31f3156e5855557ea36a72932a0cfc4a6855d69c34c4a174278434fc8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542367511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60ecb823bb667a51ccf9ffcb1cab2c48899cd16410687874887dab9df9f4e1bf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884048649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x611ac8b703b5291cb8798560e6db1edf9c5eb3038b138d1885d4f708380d4b52","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544507766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6680cae9b37261f6c1ec3313f9ad175708bb9722e94285b5b0a5b50a9972d312","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574225232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6995678ed5f481941cc4de37512cfe77b1b20e6fd9ba35e284360061d2687d8f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500271073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x797d586ad45522306490b0cc9b2f21bdf957f3843476fae99f3bcc2cec83b74b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8078702062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x89102f28df8a119d84259cfdd0f2f7f9a758cfdf749554e153c6bf154afbe717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615242024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x909bcd8ae00d0cd47b561a40d655ae4b71f24df00e7d82b18874698046f61f0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081800633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa360ac9fbd12976ccad4ae8799598aaabeb1c28de6493e3c52a67cb592dbb7d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679155937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xabe05aa3efb620cf283a9a7f967eaced0aee898b14f3b170347a3392d7401f03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549946598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xacb0a0c474f7723d3d5431a023517990cbf47e7b655c6624f0e4f51d36981137","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713267246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb08e5d3c35323aaef8b46c7bb3466df0b51ee87e1c38faa2ccc5c1a00e88c9a5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171450773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb195d62d129815a3c222566f8bf8c927870311e49888c7a938e2ba0143092224","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562283969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb6db11fa76323814a73cd76cdaa459f502078166bf5810e6de1b013af7334f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604422138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbc2d59e8ea0378f0851c86e84d250e80a5698874db52c13798053841f291dc28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554181692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbffad14552b38c75d0047811d758c848202b520e153d5f124b694c6cadfaf7da","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572966912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd185f10a7d0f07e733e02a6811fc2930fb7478166107669fe58bd7ba37aa9895","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491437832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe56b65d978c8bd65b4d24a0d093929ab23711816d039d7a3ceac5b7280b61564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624266374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeaab9021b99acc38699821455c9332838c88f1609071f7f2e39da2f56e52d9e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735534095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xed6e40eeab474a579cb894e3eeafb215b29dbba27c30c33e39e80f40649d3cff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541830316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee97e9edec0727d16dcfe4040dca1c949d45e4010de05569fb5a4e7a9873a83d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252096593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0d4ee47d3abe6161f1e8f93bfe46d06d1ffd63f48e71c49aa81b2250e152e8b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4638890925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf8ce0003ad658f06891e30bea1da4ad188884cdd933367099c8d121ea671bbd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823269981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198562721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580284718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614338555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173866527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4786566148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611223921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037632539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155292196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1722","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633506065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1723","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.135067057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448588052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1726","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058569701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"2gZEQtlQyO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4833363939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"4kreogtql1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.429550917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"5qIUdqQIOl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325529922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109293246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"8y9hsccOnU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836155403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"9zlInyCcq9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635121756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"ADS8fVRT4vhTq4lm7V12","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8132533012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"AQOlO0nOsc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996165677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"Ehu8pd5PLP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5534373074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"L2qLAZEntz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1888346514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"LpP5sE6dnE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713336017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"NhqOACq9Pu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341488031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"PCt0P5qsCZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999892604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"PlEyIhRSPc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749953038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640652396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715816491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"Ul8h2UzIPt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7681035344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"Y1YDkx1SzzL93AFDpG6v","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609734695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"ZJ9LlySKX4dldqcpdQ4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5669494663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"dLq1oGr6ndcwTPIUAV9t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705236686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1703376744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"i0gxu4hz50xefKXiKCI8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664901349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4437476364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707973418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"lLZAqRlld9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620580677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"lsO2IQ5LlE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055554715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"m7scZNu2LwMHTfnhW0IV","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004432031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"t0LUU2E2ZE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128621951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"tcnaai25qi","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164726741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"ylgphSdccA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138279308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"zUONycg925","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8248831836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122911595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189310278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"39992","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31330226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639749997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06249378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40849","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699103688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40852","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.551944201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40862","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539049812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40864","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069978196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40865","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5443165032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40875","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697038219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4731228056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41140","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414130762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41205","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630659962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788470659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41316","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4360176393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41343","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802158718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1682926701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2007312187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41489","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266708845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41508","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.416317846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41512","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5122335064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109967286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41595","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618816262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009933761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41861","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156199514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605427514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02f0c60b4f9551c97fe67bc6f02df357de52ca969f0e9159e06a5aca69cd2bf6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562065681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04b1198c2a888f4d162cc5eea844b2f67a80e684d37d8e75bbcde2fc2d06755b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527246393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a2f5de6fcdacae0f56cb60cd05765e0e9998b605f6cc9c8885ee2a87ad85175","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7648989114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a999ae98b3c9e593cbbd33e2f940df1b071ac0ab9ede42ed12eeb8f7eef461e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088905739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d14f5dc9fb3250ec888b1ac8d9fe9a0ce06f9d3ea60fdf138e8690622fea84c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.132522212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x101c26a9ff336abf4dffeb109dc40b92d9f55882dd471e57ee875794a6561bf3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056313692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6382599621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6186065016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14dbdb6274de6bcc65ce2b628c6636ff210fd452d095b0f14fdb1d376b31cecf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566458413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637796554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2096cd3bedb878cbfb5d30308968616a1dfd80e17b278ca6bdc72f9dde4776a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4709680504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x212cc6584803e23a777960c163f882466db4cb88cec4983b3b95a8b3e75815d2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4267684692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032723522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3659029a2ffcd2df378dad1d1a3f2c3a1d3662174aaca0c063beb46596084443","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852659333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x36e8ca24d2a13435f519f15580d42b45cdbe3bc425fb39a7c2733260357af0fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901757739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x38837354d63a13a8b8707988d10343c0b7c0bb4ed6b2208a1167cd134250fe2e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129102576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b74dc0c578dd2d5ac066b98d4a8849995240003c921b44558fe9f06400f1c55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514095139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x41f7b9b2054fbedf0e559eb4f3567682b5ce3ec4b17a61f4b6efa7071ffedb0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745381404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48d65cfb64a9351ff56ca2377041f9bf558ae4755991080694b254a64917345b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548785821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b23c2e3ee806915cc1186641d292acbc6b26d7a7746ee93c910b8b0c87d4bca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4326203555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x51c5e5e7fb2afce5f9fb3239bbd002542ab7ff567ec7656b052173bdffb3051a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625075724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58234757c9519ddfffdbc8f33bea3b172d5a55a7fedb07c6df4fed1e97ba1ca7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8828033412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5bacc34a8e6a55ba0ec728af334b7685e8fda1e9304ec95f0249bb15ea3c941d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7479148674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x618280c029aeb0044177f58ccc15fa38be1a8db304189b935a26d5205256ee3b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5115571246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x61ce3773237a948584e422de72265f937034af418a8b703e3a860ea62e59ff36","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553809796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x662270576ae01d80a6eec9f8579c93987338f646010117e9c98fffe7c38b220c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8814355789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6987d084de71031819f82051ea62b29a354628c3e4a22076a2acc197c776080a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746648255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x70909f0ba8256a89c301da58812ae47203df54957a07c7f8b10235e877ad63c2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9078144261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5237514412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7a3227795ce17d9cc5378a9b373d6defd4b25112206531e0c7768f6092002410","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282508818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d99e856ca49dcf748ff0072af624a65bafcb44a34b914b5a1466211674ae729","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582719484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8533de32e4bcfc22d1c8fe8d79be73b319505c2bc19733f62d2d217695df463d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787727759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x898e9ff5045fcd05c26ea1e956d926c191d5aecae1bc184283c94e665f0f7be5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592310004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d2f1d7b05bdc074c2cdba4e4b51be5673953f9b22b3c0fc8e3bf5cbed13c90f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117804296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d4e6f7486e32dbd406028a3cecd9883df353c81011124418db811ed9cd9d1d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879826792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x99a0fdc1bb6308873bf87eb75a47e21c8340fe20fb6b033444c1d21392da10a9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4929850972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b6fef249040fd17e9c107955b37ac2c3e923509b6b0ff01cc463a331ddeb894","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667279161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fbe1832139c5e67dbf93813aabb9ac67ab8dd3d7d32fe86957ff761a8fa1532","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228586482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa1f08ec3bcc1434cb0b695bd5ee9f81268ef45fb73f752b3a1c1fb1d35750866","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504806968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4846074074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6f3732fc2464da2ed17f4270dc87ac59a2b4b1ed711d491f9584ca9a783c95c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632473276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb80648ac5065ea63ccd08aea88b6c2faf5f324fa0cb9c26abb8a29c5a53e0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6323544685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb9223ddfda277ecf96cea52aba3d6a47e3bb001bf0173fb3e2145566c28e0c24","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9211586055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd20296a99221f2e4426779353376c6f9f877dff7a8bbdc2bd91d52f3030f113","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545677103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc5e382cc0cda0a640c8687ed85e8182e006dfcc7ba3a6fa6c68d53e5782f5320","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543887539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc829edf5ca6961e441c266546064b629c29a9313694689c0768db92810db62ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562922469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcbeecb8b1c7937145991ebb0d4c402b908c37f0f09222d8962c1f6fdfe5a9870","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807299489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce33ad5f0fbcc1a4861cc92b81814cd174020d16df3dc80d5c287d5f047e68fc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836817448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd185f10a7d0f07e733e02a6811fc2930fb7478166107669fe58bd7ba37aa9895","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760828661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd405c18b0df642e7f06aadf359183cb8208c1ff6b3a3bca3f8206dca2eb9532e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076915087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd87ac5bb74a21061d4f223d2a83c0269607fcb6d4c74d5a3d3220209d089431a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685375638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4e3ed7607fd945a06ab045076f808e9fe6488fed1d56b924b7eb6836fdf9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5686162622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf562feabe9922f78e99b488df4fcef6be8cbc831605388751538d178585007aa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5335590605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055078886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591627442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603747982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101056495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641178695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621711616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315910528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221825135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1722","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626247079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1723","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1542381735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320380018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"0q0RRPtScc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060574292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"65zU6OlPId","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5098068445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1812545424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"8y9hsccOnU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099368493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"9zlInyCcq9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685184154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"AQOlO0nOsc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045913844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"C96pyn9Z5Z","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549740175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"IIgUPUpq6E","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620916356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ILztIIlPyl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537658359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"L2qLAZEntz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897986338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"LpP5sE6dnE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211079314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"NstCUAzyt2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797444995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8975889724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"P255hsOyEL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461072482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"Q9gNdcP2lc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858780322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"QsQUZ22Z28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660906754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611602431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"SsikK1jWrDZwQxDLCAnU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662753872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187196503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"Y1YDkx1SzzL93AFDpG6v","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571373607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ZJ9LlySKX4dldqcpdQ4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.582245706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ccugdghNgy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891402104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"cp9s0lqSCy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079397164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"cqcSp5ZC9h","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546698667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"dLq1oGr6ndcwTPIUAV9t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649678017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632271227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045799642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lLZAqRlld9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574160706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lOIsUpOuLg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069123869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823226554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lnIC5ggZh6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572865219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lsO2IQ5LlE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546037005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"m7scZNu2LwMHTfnhW0IV","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878506834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"nR9hLyUqzn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1708789507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"sIS2UNptC0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249830607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"t0LUU2E2ZE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013938853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"t8dLUsqqNE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4765899677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"tcnaai25qi","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114252177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"tgT5NHOu7VA8sSAuAtJb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839204949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"yhCRLptzUL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566873408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ylgphSdccA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064431313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ypNI2z6IRI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371901051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7672613733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960995692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718741437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522944732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"39992","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876774353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40005","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069105669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417556948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584576177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40711","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555244263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40849","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668464186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40852","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5465802749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40862","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054874322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40865","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6304905057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959405578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4722199438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089383234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421234339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201750559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41489","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699074976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41508","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4186038396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736886932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41561","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304269869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41595","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505622071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974460976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1691564564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"42135","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6236850216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"42274","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358880407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"42284","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491295129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04b6c4174ccaf58a69722fa6f699584ae5d2f84d20ea81055cdff2e464e6aaf3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4345447974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0b8382c3f8bf1a2ba7d9d37846edb54eb266a326b73d2338dc86a5959bf22ee4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640776968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0c38dd9305e3205557885183f0730270779e7e426b0ec3e7743f23963b6d6e4a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569842443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d14f5dc9fb3250ec888b1ac8d9fe9a0ce06f9d3ea60fdf138e8690622fea84c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457247578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6439959196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6050477171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14dbdb6274de6bcc65ce2b628c6636ff210fd452d095b0f14fdb1d376b31cecf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551703744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1e17e60a28b3f9ddb668c5fac7b225095a5734a3825cf013659166045e94322f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561440309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2049638936027998accd2d320af8a7838ed1f673a00d0a22a288d5f678015e03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291095455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2096cd3bedb878cbfb5d30308968616a1dfd80e17b278ca6bdc72f9dde4776a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4541159671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783290759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x257b18205f908aef01ef2d1d50e6fea7d29cf5486fe04031d8b101394476faed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1829792142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x281565cae359040475640be8bc20f4efe15245fe0251805fd338fb1a3e45ffae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.596108922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2821de9fbe90c422cb220dad69fe44dfdea8fdf8fb779e562b44be6db8c1daff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553144971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2df3bce3a7e1b85fd6e26dcc87cb54a61052388e0bf676cbfcd94258d4b93343","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898375108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x337e5c84b83679d5557acafcf78b5c5d4d932b9fcd7dfba7966249d64f0f0a0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876621577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3423f60496f083e12e770f9ae961b31637823cdfd2361cb578b2596651ba53b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123068051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x34fcbccbeaf57becfe5b45c9e1713876e288eb2c8d0f32d57d0c078cea92b6e0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757396725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x36e8ca24d2a13435f519f15580d42b45cdbe3bc425fb39a7c2733260357af0fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825077053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4290a4aa43a0707f0f1193c73667074f2ef5ce8ab5d6fcdd4ca645bfe1528f03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586135115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x42ddf5ef540070c0c7a44011d7b66d252edb2162d68a72d9dd429d5b93c6736b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3997012602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x484727c382ab50cd8ded2f655a0259bdbac4117b04dd82bd90627190c5eb90cb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046105363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48d65cfb64a9351ff56ca2377041f9bf558ae4755991080694b254a64917345b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536568486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48fbf70c1713e71a405052bc4641e26dbba435fa557672c4040763c901cbf606","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179694934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4d0d43382de6021ce0e906774caf6fc73fbe24078c9a75c6d7ae07b04299f8d0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556203836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e65282819c98c6aed529f357fbf5983b1ae9407a3c25bd50fe97b2906df68f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696935554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e99f6a90d91428c77816ca5884607b744420904cff1df30d5633c6f5eae5108","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5034057278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5bacc34a8e6a55ba0ec728af334b7685e8fda1e9304ec95f0249bb15ea3c941d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.733529647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5cd80b8fd72f37c78260a4f8fa0d5bbaaad3adffcfc2c0705e05ee20b8672908","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5548506881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x626d0441b078eefbe2c49047960e7a3b6b4512c235507a2528ccc0f95f2474a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4040053817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c56930693777443c84bc172003442d9e317476fdcf59c9b26a60034001d9c19","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.383016713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa908777d31b9b31f311560d879231b8853f7f728278acb3ccc82bf3a52b5d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134153745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7858c69bcee88426d6ee415e3b70e2f3f31c2ada1b3c68de7e37ce7b39014d3e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562538214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7906cde04153c8c31e52ad747596c56b0ea7ce224a07bc604ea65206fb53a2c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4188218929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4920266805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7f81f50d29b43799df512b52574cfe3ffbadfb62ddc71bacf89f4e0dc4c5ffed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4423216464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x84c7382fc6881416a2b07b0ebe9da32daba8be44a48623a0c3fe4b22f816431a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1377845633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d2f1d7b05bdc074c2cdba4e4b51be5673953f9b22b3c0fc8e3bf5cbed13c90f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11570092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x98737df66d3a7aceb83e22aca51672a56fda0f8d5677578d193fd6d4ce6bcaa2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695252933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x98aa2f28e0610fa97d787c6e9875e37160cec1f4219dbdf86a3111616e8b700d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566684143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9f297733ff47d610334d4195c109296df51ec3fac02af7abed55adacd4bddacc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253194163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa70a86d250db7b0eb5f19b7856d13acf2dbfc554b8792fe9e004b521e8f601f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531357858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa998022efc89d60331ac15e78103dafd765e65eaea433405638c4e293d2b0fa6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5221021428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb23587fc1e319cdf9aaa12c503f6b2149c820c3d64ded3c98b4ff6719cac78fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139864241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb2e1fde8d5b6d178509efb34b3850c69a7bc742c361ba6016054e50302f833c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131371201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb80648ac5065ea63ccd08aea88b6c2faf5f324fa0cb9c26abb8a29c5a53e0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6366515522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc5e382cc0cda0a640c8687ed85e8182e006dfcc7ba3a6fa6c68d53e5782f5320","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558548117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc829edf5ca6961e441c266546064b629c29a9313694689c0768db92810db62ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773857239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6439973085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce33ad5f0fbcc1a4861cc92b81814cd174020d16df3dc80d5c287d5f047e68fc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1548561759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdde06286a7b9464d344f410ab0b3d2ebc6469904e72c27fd982f65fdbf78768d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624579156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe443dab97ad8b7f58558cc7a6a3932d156031e962a451e0461e9a4578d78fe84","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560937536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe94749bbf616139120735f9720de5b1a94b61cb7da0feb633f97f113d61a167b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5220805319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xead308d7628ff4bf7c89df1d52163de37501a627c7b7588cc523c07ef9b0f4bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071124721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee07342762446b03520f52f84b7a9b354d6fdad1d65cc4f2f942c484a9983a06","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534488508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf5815cfd8808989d87c165bdd666c9f9df5db28698d53d3f5d1f2b0147d191bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667146978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf74795c449ba15be6b0541c73beaa51d01d840606c84331ad97375b55004ccba","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082283864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb80c14c1497596d2b10533873c6ffca9dadf062807ffb104a9c86e04fae7d89","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302360314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144714973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506583466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496348542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660311627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4113591627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510546672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832659577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319298701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1723","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827141339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269404268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4759032971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2044869297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"9RNqh5yzqR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130366562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"A8PRqgUEgS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8215898022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ENeRvHYBhq48Fol2AtB8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4819052482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"EP58QE55q6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4615711845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"LpP5sE6dnE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629252183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8563971363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"OlQq8h8qOh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315121693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3902748322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"P255hsOyEL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025836762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"Q86zpNZRsU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043776987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"Q9gNdcP2lc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156291564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"QsQUZ22Z28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1584225366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"Ul8h2UzIPt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7270426989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ZJ9LlySKX4dldqcpdQ4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5957119002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ccugdghNgy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057481559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563643615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"i0gxu4hz50xefKXiKCI8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755337736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"lOIsUpOuLg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054397285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"lqRAnA8qPO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691247211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"lyIZhZLguu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073970587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"sIS2UNptC0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134947651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"t8dLUsqqNE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4192253023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ypNI2z6IRI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116781612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6849739529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609989283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08357571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966444815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"39992","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275562605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40005","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506128127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104581561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522449414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40849","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865575364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40852","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5878998786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40865","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7404138917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089580272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393715957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1766668767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.144821334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864626352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906711841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461622468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456213362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42135","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6267999408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42139","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646943931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42284","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4504630891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42430","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932450549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42472","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4075584249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.56738614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7885094793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42489","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8846279272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42490","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785484233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42491","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360900453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42540","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864025346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42548","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1694441294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04b6c4174ccaf58a69722fa6f699584ae5d2f84d20ea81055cdff2e464e6aaf3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4072057989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x09ab024402ce8e8a2c36e1456640a2920a74b758fcdb4a7eb8c4c4a12e8c1476","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122349965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f461cb384aa6289cc3b216ac9916b12a0dd90eccb46b198158507df81944a0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5170860008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6161328658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x149e2cdbf5b3df3142452412c4c9f4e8f39379020ba1bc25c1811a3f43c8ad27","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467097897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x15ba9c42b7b541d4acfcf44ac0c9d1e7740f4e3d320868b2eb2543596a2d2154","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503230392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1d18ea76e6b90075064466ed428970fc6932c7fc3bf32e74855e622a982a694c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9390935893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2096cd3bedb878cbfb5d30308968616a1dfd80e17b278ca6bdc72f9dde4776a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033811406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x313787d313815069851d81a35de415dcfd9e223ced2a0ab19fcf9ad367ff0a76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8122599542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35d4c895922c49d59ea09eedf6bbf2e7dc52c363225e6ce5b6a6489e9ce10965","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5544659338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3acb42d4a4da859a82ec3c78e6be641489985672ea7f28ae73da7c253af32fa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281491142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x44878f202dd18a286de9235acec372e9e6e6ca2b28d269c4138fc2604c9b78a9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019107721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ccff8c606ad71080c7611d28f1593a528a8ca6c11c1fb63bfa24a7eb2ad30d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8571517148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4cf389adc069a4d713e1ddb6348c96afd6df78e6bf676c7dce1780135186d90e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332406201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52a5ce595e0f0816e17e5f40dbd5967c88beb4b9f21000bfdd9a1ff26c281fdd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821881607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58234757c9519ddfffdbc8f33bea3b172d5a55a7fedb07c6df4fed1e97ba1ca7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8211515356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5cd80b8fd72f37c78260a4f8fa0d5bbaaad3adffcfc2c0705e05ee20b8672908","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5257840362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6269283503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c56930693777443c84bc172003442d9e317476fdcf59c9b26a60034001d9c19","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905276578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e1fbd722b0aca8a4e05c7c2f4ff1428d4c97f2ee02056712463d00c1c705a55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905805516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa908777d31b9b31f311560d879231b8853f7f728278acb3ccc82bf3a52b5d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037780841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x773abaa5fe55e5cde51a261f444b7921652a4e059ead6b3be9fe56499c2d4609","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9629383712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x78f5630bafa15147941daa2fd2926b43febe6af1544cd9d8527b226914f3ca11","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481825324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x78f97eed822885c3813ab7ba0ba41a5c1bb0ca0f0f622698bfc0460931aff51a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7544434759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79bc9eae1f5ce8f3f58648f45e7ff7cf182a8314e2d1a5b536520c5cc4b3e097","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531795917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8546562533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.501733731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d4e6f7486e32dbd406028a3cecd9883df353c81011124418db811ed9cd9d1d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569340971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8df5a4256840dee05851250c0490da7593597faff3a7f9a156ccbbda7fec76f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058040412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x90c6511dcc9499c2c58786a2456df333a87c97a9cf548acc26f3e4e56fbc36e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1889428311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x939bf902c7ba884c1310f19b6be20576f823952460f6367c9f10c08cd449ee60","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5370860561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x97de9adea81f908cc2b372c23627d8121ecbe1c21336d4263465fd3d1262d378","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4163713584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fe87b4bec41ca0b2e5f09b79e59f9aba6a88feab636db30b70fa103c1b54e5a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618325248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa3186ffc28c45f336920279d5085529d530690a1623997819f3a3db05119dbaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1628210316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa998022efc89d60331ac15e78103dafd765e65eaea433405638c4e293d2b0fa6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4325559486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf4c3ba4d1b1568d4309bba0874cb7eec1e5b40a648f4a26b12efa2e9b5ee8a4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054512364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbee2cd40473495f713c69b9dfbce9fc2837fa4011568222c83c83bb773e35053","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7981242787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbefea6668e49e328db4d5c792bc15cea309bbc06101dfd6ced1e0556ad3ea301","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438622768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc4170a15840e61b89216fcdf6368f63486b51f037e5c0546d63ae75b14fa5c2a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4240186977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc451f03563e65567ee326fcaf2128915afa777cb31805c40ddae0a19cf1013f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6177965068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc4c3dbcc37a957a817599b0bf9fb5bd6b62b19210b0f527fec57cb75c7ed150a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7181922392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6ddb19f848ac363330d0a690cfe6818d4c51e837161a41d42675eda27767ed0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539146279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc942d7049a9487c1fe5481c41e7014855fb7df7e69af2d5a7ea18af2d4c2052c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631529261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb139a61f2cc201078f5ed717781b7227b740645d07fec2a07d2d4bcd16ff8a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6911421644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6538056974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcd215b8330a35098a1a3f6c46b6492347edb5e74c1e0a95ac4d3d54aece6c262","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8014970153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce33ad5f0fbcc1a4861cc92b81814cd174020d16df3dc80d5c287d5f047e68fc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1805694443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd08544f6162283dc8d0a82f16362aab837a8537379df9bbe604960eec9cd4618","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584574586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd2016eb15c8b61cb95fe512a0c91f43fc46793e9ac0a30595d08dcffe637fdd2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042964055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd72622d154dfe65b9c019d6afcfe75a55717e5c502db611f555b101aafbf6ec5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634674838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd73f60114a0e7169a55082daef1228cb27fa50c939eea22cb0589f6bac6ce5d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212563567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe0e60764a3827a8c93ed961c73cfb02b0b6bf6820b8c8cb94fa99af46de9094c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4469858067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8278289063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xead308d7628ff4bf7c89df1d52163de37501a627c7b7588cc523c07ef9b0f4bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749666066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf6890c707d1e327b006b9511bdba8c98ec4e4978646c6ffcf3ec8750c26a666a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771660218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949990632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523588726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4511836449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489784967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969080014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201017304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029904583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"0q0RRPtScc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085327437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1979989992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"ECdCgusP8y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265690459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"ENeRvHYBhq48Fol2AtB8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5075736727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"EP58QE55q6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4910395257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"IIgUPUpq6E","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475878374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"NIhOcZOQZE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1771446913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"NLPzcQ2Cy9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617654538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8707037167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"O6R80dnggu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335793276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"OlQq8h8qOh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3936691621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4651384774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"QsQUZ22Z28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1633562511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"SZtPUQqhp5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6325223867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1716208373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"UdsLNSc2OE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3733586052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163161459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"ccugdghNgy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699558619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"cnlR6p5sZl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759832679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491288224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"g2lE0I6Etq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501929605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"i0gxu4hz50xefKXiKCI8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157081391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883713588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3553863519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"lyIZhZLguu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779541458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"n0SOsuUccS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054199715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"n8ZROwk6GKcLyurigsf1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056226668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"rHlcD6lAiCa10CCruEHE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1674838549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904716733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"yhCRLptzUL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462244186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7048517371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626069738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765837953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345671792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"39992","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816831424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"40417","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410098842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049007256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904729435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41140","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3780090105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334076633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857564553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834124349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41561","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260530946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770875453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342481002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1446002367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42135","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6579643042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42430","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826302715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8325458958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42489","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8775067388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42490","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077139925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42491","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350714417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42542","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449216382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42616","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4631689042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42630","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6452503187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42729","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900967619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00cf5f4a419743e3bbaea3d01537c895ecfd8edba5e539967fe662573de44f23","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832707834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12e3cc1640a58ee52e0ce2237c95ffefb7f543d65c0061043f23c803b215f099","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512144539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1dce1f13c565d8c34807aedfd6f75b41e0908f34fabfd2b56c362f190202d4b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578308961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2096cd3bedb878cbfb5d30308968616a1dfd80e17b278ca6bdc72f9dde4776a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4423379795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3acb42d4a4da859a82ec3c78e6be641489985672ea7f28ae73da7c253af32fa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126736486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b6e28dcff1d4cfed3e169baefd383fb2ac39698d695baaf9eeb73f0e83cd6f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851759376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x45ca0f412d4c8700ed1cb835a35ddbdda1ab02027dcd7366ed8e3ac83b603910","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488549176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48874462b88af831a4d90479286c6c1d4cd683a6b119d926f85ac66549385b21","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058579649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4cf389adc069a4d713e1ddb6348c96afd6df78e6bf676c7dce1780135186d90e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425538564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52847ca1413b76a5570b97c0c432e38dbe61b0140f9d45e912604591b08f6fca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429314382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54b36f27449bac18ab792efb1fce8e923d6dc190a311cb28aef0926583ae5760","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4465872006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c60f587c76b49b7b3236cdb7f2a8d796aa9566659da670407bc2181aa8499cb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8489883646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x634ac8f30b4aac7e4be6c968097e4c4708f047e6641d005d3a0948c45f0912d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8412837847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x68beecc857017df8663fa36c0c86310dec7305aa88fe830c94651391314afc1c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294160714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4783125942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7906cde04153c8c31e52ad747596c56b0ea7ce224a07bc604ea65206fb53a2c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.453694128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4792542387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x807a5bd3d52942c2d8b58bf71a583d4aa03a637f3fd9ff7a7c4a1ad818003067","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8406409903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fe87b4bec41ca0b2e5f09b79e59f9aba6a88feab636db30b70fa103c1b54e5a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052583083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa5a13e1bc51f0a6f2763f6c2de0ffc20f2d76df2726ecbe1592a269b4d92d18d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36161535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa66db20af4919780b9ee9ede1ad0c79050bbdcff217d9fb6f3d0c65ab7c5a210","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4449217161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6ddb7146f48a12dbf73456d654211b01d7493829932c31b7fe85d82120d338f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516060626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf4c3ba4d1b1568d4309bba0874cb7eec1e5b40a648f4a26b12efa2e9b5ee8a4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002875807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb412664463bbfe21be44b1963291205ab332afd4f7f6e0d027aec1ba7a9e6793","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476536689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb564e5e20a0d3ab9b07d24ff25b19001d9d6b2d1d3121d4b9a2a0691713643cb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197067769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb9b15d243a2adc2c7c63cfe9f92de8a079a38a8035a1638b3151d19d53b3ed2a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460239931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbef7518445fa4a7c6460d9157e2d4a8097320914988d13a809c486eff50e5c06","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4390373312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1109800f5de195bbbbaf81b783de4792b6a8a2fbe9b604c715a39c5ae2a2a47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1503143875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc11a6a29ad4dbe16920928339cd9ad3bf3f9a2ab63e52ff5bfb8d177cdfb4d35","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018869596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c3ea2f7de17860533ca15f8f97458a88030dfa1a46c8be5396b5cb60aaa2ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235352969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2150d5d58c957816dcf137776a3ab002b038c582acfc36510f59547ddbb5f58","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487929753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6ddb19f848ac363330d0a690cfe6818d4c51e837161a41d42675eda27767ed0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513881522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc8e9ba9e25f5adcf7e159e62c24ca3bda9a5245a049acb94fdd534e67ed1969e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068452148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6829744279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcfeec50a34d9429bfdc60d180f391b828924b88bd40c5b2361a43b7375b7a533","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452759632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xda7e08ef489f722996e957ade4139a4003c707e4b103472ac111672dfe34444e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598748955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xddbfffed3078bc556ff8fabc7ff92515c092b5f38db97e557b5f8ee8af8b2597","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8737130189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791030128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe2ab9e3d506238a9a1a1f7f3448f5483645ab7ba16e1499929428b96ca27fd64","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4803494509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8103178493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3e8574f967e628750dff67c641944a84da281ced40ffe7c76e42649e89a6887","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9235180808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xefb4d37ec67929c1bbffb16454c5bb8bf574ed367f52c54495a28f0717a1e005","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805315116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeffa3fd586db59043682b5bb90e4162f90bbfeb488edc118702d985183de0700","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582320382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf2a4a7765e2f05824fce5cd598c6c4a636a5aadc12607c05527b340f161fd2f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981949711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xffdbbf2c3b9aa808abbcb35beb2b20a93572570aa5dd1bd1b630cade2f809f26","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920455254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997004178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494059581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.522729996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461087176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626503527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1884718943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216775068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"0q0RRPtScc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472159457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3803670736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"2ItEg96spt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4285204058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"5lCp68nI9Q","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4580037314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100417672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"CqptuuhR5c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724072866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"EP58QE55q6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4594255561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"IIgUPUpq6E","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493256575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"O6R80dnggu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866493032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"OU2hqNZPu0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8670987623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"OhuZtq6n6R","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218550861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3892551149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"QUlUpzqyNh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3683397102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"RcRy5POOpq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433345945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576489405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764245661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"U5lqZZCzc9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441405782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"XOJ8Tfrg8s2iqPFwauO8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586179818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"g2lE0I6Etq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424683136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"ghI9lZO0CP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464472394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"hEZcA8l59I","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493641533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"i0gxu4hz50xefKXiKCI8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184086447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.470358494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951770194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"lyIZhZLguu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666662307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"n0SOsuUccS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525938558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"nR9hLyUqzn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801951598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"y2ZIUOq0ZC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459076268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"yhCRLptzUL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446311351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"yq9hpgsgsU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767129911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6062374507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093255113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288413066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"40417","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356709736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496994471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"40730","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6331466605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890675509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41140","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3487097336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016781108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523149382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301030772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861886027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308833529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"42485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8576519906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"42490","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797412324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"42630","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6654587228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"43091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4379097602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x069fef06f8b32dee6a22fab6189249dc83582f22cb737a85225b114770d7da05","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4117772393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6795585165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12609f33bc603cb234db2af1d502d143587b697bdc479ddb9344401dbf987914","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671952058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1462c484c487defffb893db05f136710d51e3879b838fd77d4ad85fa7137d6df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467122751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1544530967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1c60f9adb1d786b6fe78d63fd9f82dbb293fa06241532fb5ba43f8d8411cde1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.732716427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2baed9d4160afbaf16209d5e2d309393904cd4815b1db17c27630bb34637cd13","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0412352867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bf6f2697e123f9bfb2c8788ed35741c67159ed19374886e6e7cb3f35e60f855","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521310268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35d8c42a467d4e485ffba50c5d2d984ed0793f4935319ca923b494798051c8ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8886257893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x394399d0391adb7f8acd4829f335eb95b350b416bfca915e17b958c7204028e4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766425472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48874462b88af831a4d90479286c6c1d4cd683a6b119d926f85ac66549385b21","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552043829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276150203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x57c1e8de9d359a76055fe1be95e46a1e72d0537811dcc2ccf070cdfa73d8ba33","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5028426743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6bdcc928ea45c82db3fec2bcac7d7a3fee998686788086195925d0edc291bfd3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.677461529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636846486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6d6fd5d251ce4cf80ec381a0fb7fcccefff4859ba7be92eddb1f7e6b1ef48595","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4111390154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e11cccf8834acee6d4c03a019141ba6f91aa001cb8f96dd69e7f67e2be6739f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575741205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x727ef88fa8c351bc39256088cd6169b4c38a1fa41c7f7382d60880de09f2f829","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520964346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x742fec2bf8157b780b2cf6b188076b9bd830122e665c216bc0f1e2d77e21cd23","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837621353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7603555ca158dfb3ec4ef84a0d9d247b5229def167093a9e844e1ae383c5d83a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6977216798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5128847826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x78547b8ae17c8a584116cc36c30ebbdab2591de259d35868958d806f4c3c211d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0416067605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7906cde04153c8c31e52ad747596c56b0ea7ce224a07bc604ea65206fb53a2c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4718255598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7db131f56117dd3883cb0f6ce289af6176a0f322f943cb4f226122a46619544b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.403744079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8c51f57113fa7c705af2a3b2450a42cf0d0192a49b16db4235fb7d08738a9b07","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411867161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e22889f3cf294f483a518d61ea2aad40ee79f8be39e7a2da1858daa7b4c8e68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572632388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x930c1ae0fdb23f71821c92e5dea1e6bd2b30b4d28ff5112a659c9f8b3871a1a5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190992573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x939bf902c7ba884c1310f19b6be20576f823952460f6367c9f10c08cd449ee60","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4737582051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x947dd80143339be3a01453de9c1e40bae72688c56622796521805823eb35cb03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490530653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x977b7d56cdeaead422cc48017dade80ec07a60036b19f1c5ab57ad48f52768e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280185924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa0965c6e18be3e0893f9a3f69cd77e8d998e817dfab4ad7c5388b5f718d1efeb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9082670057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7767322296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6d6873e4e1e640f48b9c386f612857a2635e734c03cceecd0bb2c061ed15e6d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6898624669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbf9bb424df116aa45f95ac5df4a714ff59bba098ebdd457e3ffdf7fbcf075e31","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263834112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc0894d06e891709f3cd673f9ea8137ab51af268322265766f8bd6d647aa41cae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5245584702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1109800f5de195bbbbaf81b783de4792b6a8a2fbe9b604c715a39c5ae2a2a47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830057368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc11a6a29ad4dbe16920928339cd9ad3bf3f9a2ab63e52ff5bfb8d177cdfb4d35","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525938558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc381b79b37b4d34ee7b7a54c0ab5f5d3c5a2a8cc67252d3010649aff1d377bd4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276383589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6693058818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd73237bb27cdc455578e9a0788c358bd79609d394f43a270bde10cde4788105f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199952215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd84858f62672e3bde4cb7e5e59b3952673c75d0805d974c4c519700330b33dcf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489486442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdade564249db4b9daad8e06c21e06e2760c7c640b2be1c7016baa48bbfef83d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.59429007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7944059191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe31a6c763685129123cb6a0f729bfce04b768c5a22cb09c5610406df1a302465","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1567636237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xefb4d37ec67929c1bbffb16454c5bb8bf574ed367f52c54495a28f0717a1e005","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807636011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071659405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468829123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442814102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1826267268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3841345298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"2ItEg96spt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023286482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"A8PRqgUEgS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.782751387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ECdCgusP8y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964511131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"EP58QE55q6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4205600505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ItRzuIdss9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8299818472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"O6R80dnggu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818523551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"OU2hqNZPu0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8854454116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"OhuZtq6n6R","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311158129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990824163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"R885yIqcqn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620664071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"RcNs5ch6qU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3862604833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.156154969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549519748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282944438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"YEdvVluF5xAGBq6lrvfD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4227611665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ds2yC0gOSR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863685318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"g2lE0I6Etq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462023662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ghI9lZO0CP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464783008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"hEZcA8l59I","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683688423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4217059324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"j65AKQZQCjgqa3erm88N","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389272808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124169462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"n0SOsuUccS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529172606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"nPUoIYsNtZKsF3qIzDlk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893089469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"uQdQc8sICZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5941618594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"yhCRLptzUL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426254347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6113152845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099328557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4532978916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962754214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914503711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830075751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076468965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1368508442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"42630","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5966431353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552656201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43167","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315455809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43171","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6129995557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43257","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009504701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43259","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485707583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43283","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117151663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04f1a10e79a106d18dc45e6087f0757456197ec5c6ffec2506cd066e8215fc62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6960019831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f3ae5d23882fb840762fd35de11fc31b0fbdc9e41e8666cdfae9d627f93f517","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8000843176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465952162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6669251176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14dbdb6274de6bcc65ce2b628c6636ff210fd452d095b0f14fdb1d376b31cecf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519477726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1522a8bc6e0edaec715b93b1bb35558ff56906ede6bcbe55282267a8a167fa64","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030107416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x182390641d3b1b47cc64274b9da290efd04221c586651ba190880713da6347d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6509249509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a79328ec8dacec06ca77e364bb9da538e529744a601a94fbb7cf78825dbe9e6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5063500069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394524338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1c60f9adb1d786b6fe78d63fd9f82dbb293fa06241532fb5ba43f8d8411cde1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7024192375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x201305cdb4e6a8c4b4c48f1e24835fce62fbfc75efd608255e36c7d504fde6c8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546249874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x221e0b7d9646f5a4262509e8c4c856299c422e21571018dcb3d5bd288d70afd0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529140956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x23e817f30871533d3bd7da01e68b802c5fccb8f44f053ef4ea5789c8a28563fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126834049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7b7d67c712a223ae85550745597e81bd2d2b8d073443951","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502793327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x33ec07ceef529f87a3a070e06d5f9b6df9d3e4e6713faec26d9510786f7cd6be","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279778896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b408ff1bc692be77ce9c3b1044ca4f6a0af3c1d2f245cb096c299005c4a0d48","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235976592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f21513463b9883fbd5b2f0496397ff7c9f15d0b94751cdfbd0ca8f8c82a594e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570442157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ff129c6f6737846a0b7912778da9c68f3766fbe4c8056224bd12de7e3ecfc10","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5730007014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900602531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4cf389adc069a4d713e1ddb6348c96afd6df78e6bf676c7dce1780135186d90e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1663152137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4527056979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x582deddec9e371ede95b6884df883ccc477204aceff7ef1a1175f3091860aff3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.731596104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a5695fb003f6ceb9075445d9a8d2b16c142c148de52cd8826c8dad60ff7483f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3833987257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3190df6e2aca0a93ab0d6fb46fd279003f17d4cdccee164","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656907287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7441be9aee85e1c6d85961ca75a9439c0c377f721069e0a93db018cd0220fc14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020338154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x780eda657742337ca48284a55e7f2103d35484f16e05c49271cf1ed4e8cac89c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706350507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81ea1a7f83a58f5257dde4697bb38c84911bb636bcc9e5b23a9c11cb4ebb06d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044695587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x85f3e001ffe2a24f985b939460d0cc22041d47107ed8c681f75abb6a5bd1d1d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738370001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x883ea143cf3c0b585bd48b6edf31c8925b52b24b15337c56ffaa5c74842299e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429920547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x88e08e1db2095d39e18ef77068b8dc8074069ccac3feac7fba88482f4f822935","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175772058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6364139247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e22889f3cf294f483a518d61ea2aad40ee79f8be39e7a2da1858daa7b4c8e68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617375671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7cb4135c6d9c36da0e343874dd5b455de739c6d1b9f9f5583dd9320aacf5db2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622589575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6d6873e4e1e640f48b9c386f612857a2635e734c03cceecd0bb2c061ed15e6d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.677037723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6f26187d7459a50e69881a10ec6b08c4c0ec028ad026de8318378959aed6b50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400034815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767976149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbef7518445fa4a7c6460d9157e2d4a8097320914988d13a809c486eff50e5c06","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.447235719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc0894d06e891709f3cd673f9ea8137ab51af268322265766f8bd6d647aa41cae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4625745507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc451f03563e65567ee326fcaf2128915afa777cb31805c40ddae0a19cf1013f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6428424292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcfeec50a34d9429bfdc60d180f391b828924b88bd40c5b2361a43b7375b7a533","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04479776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd655178f705e3b4274e3d96ae3fc11e91d11d15fe269d969fc511a6d5f7be081","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248772819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdc00146a77dbe0f17e69b4c5d71e9358b0e9eaae4908ab993e0fff0c566abb11","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1979514809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235673884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdeb647fdf84101019b915355e56168e6f629e2399763b2c32f86ce63476d8252","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6044697793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf6e9ed2eaf69707c7a1162a240ca025a02b0a5028dc286c9248769e0044bdf7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871378262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.797815544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4e3ed7607fd945a06ab045076f808e9fe6488fed1d56b924b7eb6836fdf9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6539112476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf6f8b2b5c8715bac1ab686147075eddbaf900b6956c20d01b14a7fbfa80bee03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176471007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432556809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484553962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431663611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1563198271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663431388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ECdCgusP8y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156935144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ENeRvHYBhq48Fol2AtB8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4800254576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"EgPqNEQq89","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956235345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"Jc4rRAQpvCXE9tCEfa4n","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430456983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"NQlELUPp5L","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207039186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8708668608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"OhuZtq6n6R","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480876568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4633805222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"PucZntcA92","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450602365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"R885yIqcqn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2019486728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"RPcqcIcASQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277671576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"RRyLNl9AOp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310747102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"RcNs5ch6qU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4310013768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"RdhCc6L2dl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1598709848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034605296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524386341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"YEdvVluF5xAGBq6lrvfD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4814523019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"cnlR6p5sZl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622973594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ds2yC0gOSR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619018263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4769682806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"lZ0tchC5N0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511593845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2140218677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"lqhq6OQQPp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987181558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"n8ZROwk6GKcLyurigsf1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050932083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"nR9hLyUqzn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277338103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"pLOp6I9sCg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9069889736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"u8UuypuNzQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.418764144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084884355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830766185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"zASdLnIEzR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235011274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445043563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6761580827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633558799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093126088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814477344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1762112218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718913848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1504172031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"42630","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6328222298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083365986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43167","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562370557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43259","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2031365024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43283","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326441019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43461","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997307374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00406e85288b97f3d587f259f15c557f61bdaa235124d82fe956c65974949ee8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601459509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00de24efbe083e61da20587be324b35e842b51f330c4f5c55942bf8681cd0857","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646288091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0e4dccd37c5ff002a8896ab8a5003331f83be9f2dc1bbafc4856235cb0a5eedc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105255795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f3ae5d23882fb840762fd35de11fc31b0fbdc9e41e8666cdfae9d627f93f517","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7848026259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1277ec079bd88b9fb7722274d9d1c4dd16e5b424401e1ff4d528ab5eafe3a084","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163803904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124746202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1c60f9adb1d786b6fe78d63fd9f82dbb293fa06241532fb5ba43f8d8411cde1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6165736229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2a70026364d7f55c182b29a6b20055abb2bb649810d789ea293a89113ca34b6c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248538538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bde6486e7067f48ee21344d8b5c1af458732536eb4d080932c88c3a7c2d2126","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6152548592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x33ec07ceef529f87a3a070e06d5f9b6df9d3e4e6713faec26d9510786f7cd6be","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382732855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x375409bc5eeeff961e82b479caeccc20f33d15738e5bce1186d628aa3d9dfb1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519152548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3fe18d2b6303ee3a7e406aab679dbc0b0f7504dc6b477a31c69c6ffb04e9e11c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424270163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x416e3cbe25a60b8210f4e67c056ea2b03f4d511e7b969826d69ef90b753ff214","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455845638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x46d52281bbeedf8c99ec45497fda69f9815160cf3c97c48a4f41ab4ecdd11d7e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6912103382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4890e36c536eef20111bd617f6479b6b7384ad2ebf16e18a108d989dc0aa9f9e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491083359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e7ab14e108ea5a9155cec536b435c098b72702639598f0c28349c8bac946d94","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086972792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x603b54737c0573fa3b0f9a808856f6147c0f122d0ddef59859287371312deb49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504118641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6b2696a265decb06d8b9cd4c2316f8d19e20b0faaebdfbf89008d79443e42898","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497364664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6b59b736ef8ec2c0f88139eb426dfcdbe7a0549e3415884f28b07a9b66602544","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4111824203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5484479131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79859c9e6645873e1568344b0b8ee54cc9eb02b90701cc5ba19c9a547ff313ce","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776476948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4577516555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x831c01fffcd137a9ebba18cfcf976d68cadf475a4e2eab22af1f822dc7386482","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849253751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8df5a4256840dee05851250c0490da7593597faff3a7f9a156ccbbda7fec76f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942369301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d68465261466ff75df821881efdb495983f40a02e64d6c310dc91b6c8a39597","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6459598667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ff2629945e6172d14c3d29cf573345544a13eceabd5d857a4caee7b8ba5c37d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041010954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa9978c0f6c5616ed400110c1dccac9260bdbfa09ebc96048ea8498daa9e7f39e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6148923554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xadb3dda930d411bdab3c579f50408b538e66e8b2af8edecdcbcecff7f66aa84b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979744691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf4c3ba4d1b1568d4309bba0874cb7eec1e5b40a648f4a26b12efa2e9b5ee8a4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946160122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231440029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc3fdb556a123e6545f0ac61ce6ce04793ea18ba83d5305596fac858ff8b9aa63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.388737202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc45a4c5c01082f8c727add1be91ab92d6c4fb782dddc6ec0e92b7b992fa62202","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8389821905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc587bda904f031a973ad3cb57128ca011bfab0f45e6cb3734ed2227c4d4be419","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506333518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd4cb184e5dc458f3b03e6da54c87f7272e478bffe30c2d8157c6df8e2eb8c985","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4492050821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd7e6f6627e8b73a8fa3a29949f6dc81f683f5ce102ae6b03347b862d09617f0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088299103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdade564249db4b9daad8e06c21e06e2760c7c640b2be1c7016baa48bbfef83d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5908983554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdc00146a77dbe0f17e69b4c5d71e9358b0e9eaae4908ab993e0fff0c566abb11","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868050822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdccabd4259261ebe59c22f50f7602df939a1feec98fc2a4314db536560120c5f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551288351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde6e8331eaaf0b212f688a04f6c4ff5f895ab633a467cb3e9f3da48fce7c6801","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105245999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe0b6f4d40f33f456caba50434db5ea8c5ca93e84eb912054a80ca0c58ad70dd7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1658436763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xebca06463a9dcfa46dce21d63313c31db6c58b9ab68c09cceb988378f9c2174f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6180033253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf7b5491e70b477d451afe7d9c1fde4bf1a927e69ff289d294b96df164f6c10f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7827754524}]