Human Combo Leaderboard: overall

  • Ranking: The position of the model in the leaderboard as ordered by Overall Score
  • Organization: The group responsible for the model or forecasts
  • Model: The LLM model & prompt info or the human group and forecast aggregation method
    • zero shot: used a zero-shot prompt
    • scratchpad: used a scratchpad prompt with instructions that outline a procedure the model should use to reason about the question
    • with freeze values: means that, for questions from market sources, the prompt was supplemented with the aggregate human forecast from the relevant platform on the day the question set was generated
    • with news: means that the prompt was supplemented with relevant news summaries obtained through an automated process
  • Dataset Score: The average Brier score across all questions sourced from datasets
  • Market Score (resolved): The average Brier score across all resolved questions sourced from prediction markets and forecast aggregation platforms
  • Market Score (unresolved): The average Brier score across all unresolved questions sourced from prediction markets and forecast aggregation platforms
  • Market Score (overall): The average Brier score across all questions sourced from prediction markets and forecast aggregation platforms
  • Overall Resolved Score: The average of the Dataset Score and the Market Score (resolved) columns
  • Overall Score: The average of the Dataset Score and the Market Score (overall) columns
  • Overall Score 95% CI: The 95% confidence interval for the Overall Score
  • Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped): The p-value calculated by bootstrapping the differences in overall score between each model and the best forecaster (the group with rank 1) under the null hypothesis that there's no difference.
  • Pct. more accurate than No. 1: The percent of questions where this forecaster had a better overall score than the best forecaster (with rank 1)
  • Pct. imputed: The percent of questions for which this forecaster did not provide a forecast and hence had a forecast value imputed (0.5 for dataset questions and the aggregate human forecast on the forecast due date for questions sourced from prediction markets or forecast aggregation platforms)
Ranking Organization Model Dataset Score (N=870) Market Score (resolved) (N=26) Market Score (unresolved) (N=275) Market Score (overall) (N=301) Overall Resolved Score (N=896) Overall Score (N=1,171) Overall Score 95% CI Pairwise p-value comparing to No. 1 (bootstrapped) Pct. more accurate than No. 1 Pct. Imputed
1 ForecastBench Superforecaster median forecast 0.097 0.064 0.037 0.040 0.080 0.068 [0.06, 0.077] 0% 0%
2 ForecastBench Public median forecast 0.127 0.137 0.029 0.039 0.132 0.083 [0.075, 0.091] <0.001 28% 0%
3 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.168 0.185 0.058 0.069 0.177 0.119 [0.107, 0.13] <0.001 27% 0%
4 OpenAI GPT-4o (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.191 0.146 0.039 0.048 0.168 0.119 [0.11, 0.129] <0.001 28% 0%
5 OpenAI GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.179 0.136 0.053 0.060 0.157 0.119 [0.11, 0.129] <0.001 27% 0%
6 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.171 0.153 0.060 0.068 0.162 0.120 [0.109, 0.131] <0.001 27% 0%
7 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.160 0.195 0.082 0.092 0.178 0.126 [0.116, 0.137] <0.001 24% 0%
8 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.193 0.156 0.055 0.064 0.174 0.128 [0.117, 0.139] <0.001 30% 0%
9 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.173 0.187 0.078 0.088 0.180 0.131 [0.119, 0.142] <0.001 23% 0%
10 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.183 0.164 0.075 0.083 0.173 0.133 [0.12, 0.145] <0.001 27% 0%
11 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.161 0.191 0.096 0.104 0.176 0.133 [0.122, 0.144] <0.001 22% 0%
12 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.173 0.151 0.088 0.093 0.162 0.133 [0.123, 0.143] <0.001 18% 0%
13 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad) 0.171 0.220 0.084 0.096 0.195 0.134 [0.124, 0.143] <0.001 19% 0%
14 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.189 0.214 0.067 0.079 0.202 0.134 [0.122, 0.147] <0.001 26% 0%
15 OpenAI GPT-4o (scratchpad with news) 0.179 0.170 0.086 0.093 0.174 0.136 [0.125, 0.147] <0.001 21% 0%
16 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad) 0.160 0.221 0.102 0.112 0.191 0.136 [0.126, 0.147] <0.001 21% 0%
17 OpenAI GPT-4 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.192 0.192 0.070 0.080 0.192 0.136 [0.126, 0.146] <0.001 21% 0%
18 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad) 0.168 0.256 0.091 0.105 0.212 0.137 [0.125, 0.148] <0.001 21% 0%
19 Meta Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values) 0.188 0.159 0.082 0.089 0.173 0.138 [0.127, 0.15] <0.001 23% 0%
20 OpenAI GPT-4 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.213 0.155 0.056 0.064 0.184 0.139 [0.128, 0.149] <0.001 27% 0%
21 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot with freeze values) 0.208 0.109 0.065 0.069 0.158 0.139 [0.127, 0.15] <0.001 26% 15%
22 OpenAI GPT-4o (scratchpad) 0.191 0.221 0.074 0.086 0.206 0.139 [0.128, 0.149] <0.001 20% 0%
23 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news) 0.161 0.183 0.110 0.116 0.172 0.139 [0.127, 0.15] <0.001 21% 0%
24 ForecastBench Imputed Forecaster 0.250 0.058 0.026 0.029 0.154 0.140 [0.134, 0.145] <0.001 29% 100%
25 ForecastBench LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news 0.232 0.114 0.042 0.048 0.173 0.140 [0.134, 0.146] <0.001 24% 69%
26 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.175 0.204 0.098 0.107 0.190 0.141 [0.129, 0.153] <0.001 22% 0%
27 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news) 0.173 0.191 0.103 0.110 0.182 0.142 [0.13, 0.153] <0.001 20% 0%
28 ForecastBench LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news 0.234 0.114 0.045 0.051 0.174 0.142 [0.136, 0.148] <0.001 24% 69%
29 ForecastBench LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) with news 0.236 0.111 0.044 0.050 0.173 0.143 [0.137, 0.149] <0.001 24% 69%
30 Meta Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.196 0.141 0.084 0.089 0.169 0.143 [0.134, 0.152] <0.001 18% 0%
31 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.192 0.150 0.089 0.095 0.171 0.143 [0.133, 0.154] <0.001 19% 0%
32 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.186 0.140 0.098 0.102 0.163 0.144 [0.134, 0.153] <0.001 18% 0%
33 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad) 0.175 0.194 0.106 0.114 0.184 0.144 [0.134, 0.155] <0.001 17% 0%
34 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 3) 0.178 0.182 0.105 0.111 0.180 0.145 [0.133, 0.156] <0.001 19% 1%
35 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.210 0.158 0.072 0.080 0.184 0.145 [0.134, 0.156] <0.001 24% 0%
36 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad) 0.173 0.181 0.113 0.119 0.177 0.146 [0.137, 0.155] <0.001 16% 0%
37 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot) 0.193 0.211 0.089 0.100 0.202 0.146 [0.134, 0.158] <0.001 21% 0%
38 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (zero shot) 0.208 0.160 0.081 0.087 0.184 0.148 [0.136, 0.16] <0.001 21% 15%
39 OpenAI GPT-4 (scratchpad) 0.192 0.166 0.101 0.107 0.179 0.149 [0.141, 0.158] <0.001 16% 0%
40 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (scratchpad) 0.224 0.062 0.077 0.076 0.143 0.150 [0.141, 0.159] <0.001 24% 24%
41 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with freeze values) 0.216 0.160 0.077 0.084 0.188 0.150 [0.136, 0.163] <0.001 27% 0%
42 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with freeze values) 0.197 0.178 0.097 0.104 0.188 0.150 [0.138, 0.163] <0.001 22% 0%
43 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3) 0.181 0.198 0.115 0.122 0.189 0.151 [0.14, 0.163] <0.001 20% 0%
44 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot) 0.183 0.188 0.116 0.122 0.185 0.152 [0.139, 0.165] <0.001 22% 0%
45 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news) 0.210 0.156 0.091 0.097 0.183 0.153 [0.143, 0.164] <0.001 19% 0%
46 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.199 0.161 0.105 0.109 0.180 0.154 [0.144, 0.165] <0.001 18% 0%
47 Meta Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot) 0.188 0.173 0.116 0.121 0.180 0.154 [0.144, 0.165] <0.001 17% 0%
48 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.224 0.101 0.088 0.089 0.162 0.156 [0.146, 0.167] <0.001 23% 18%
49 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 3) 0.206 0.165 0.103 0.108 0.186 0.157 [0.147, 0.168] <0.001 19% 5%
50 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad) 0.186 0.201 0.124 0.131 0.193 0.158 [0.149, 0.168] <0.001 16% 0%
51 OpenAI GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 3) 0.206 0.154 0.107 0.111 0.180 0.158 [0.148, 0.168] <0.001 18% 3%
52 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 1) 0.196 0.264 0.109 0.123 0.230 0.160 [0.149, 0.17] <0.001 18% 9%
53 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot) 0.189 0.312 0.113 0.130 0.250 0.160 [0.145, 0.174] <0.001 20% 1%
54 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 1) 0.206 0.213 0.105 0.114 0.209 0.160 [0.149, 0.171] <0.001 19% 11%
55 OpenAI GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1) 0.198 0.244 0.112 0.123 0.221 0.161 [0.147, 0.174] <0.001 21% 0%
56 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad) 0.192 0.172 0.126 0.130 0.182 0.161 [0.15, 0.172] <0.001 18% 0%
57 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.198 0.152 0.121 0.124 0.175 0.161 [0.149, 0.173] <0.001 18% 0%
58 OpenAI GPT-4o (zero shot with freeze values) 0.216 0.187 0.104 0.111 0.202 0.163 [0.149, 0.178] <0.001 26% 0%
59 OpenAI GPT-4o (zero shot) 0.216 0.259 0.097 0.111 0.238 0.163 [0.151, 0.176] <0.001 20% 3%
60 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.211 0.208 0.108 0.117 0.210 0.164 [0.151, 0.176] <0.001 18% 0%
61 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news) 0.199 0.186 0.123 0.128 0.193 0.164 [0.154, 0.174] <0.001 17% 0%
62 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad) 0.198 0.208 0.122 0.130 0.203 0.164 [0.154, 0.174] <0.001 17% 0%
63 Meta Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad) 0.196 0.195 0.127 0.133 0.196 0.165 [0.156, 0.173] <0.001 15% 0%
64 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 3) 0.207 0.191 0.119 0.125 0.199 0.166 [0.157, 0.175] <0.001 17% 2%
65 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 2) 0.215 0.152 0.114 0.117 0.184 0.166 [0.155, 0.178] <0.001 18% 9%
66 Anthropic Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2) 0.200 0.192 0.132 0.138 0.196 0.169 [0.156, 0.181] <0.001 19% 0%
67 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with freeze values) 0.220 0.199 0.111 0.118 0.210 0.169 [0.156, 0.183] <0.001 20% 0%
68 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news) 0.232 0.206 0.098 0.108 0.219 0.170 [0.159, 0.181] <0.001 21% 14%
69 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1) 0.213 0.284 0.113 0.127 0.248 0.170 [0.158, 0.182] <0.001 18% 0%
70 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.212 0.212 0.121 0.129 0.212 0.170 [0.156, 0.185] <0.001 23% 0%
71 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.217 0.165 0.123 0.127 0.191 0.172 [0.16, 0.183] <0.001 17% 0%
72 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 1) 0.201 0.241 0.133 0.142 0.221 0.172 [0.16, 0.183] <0.001 17% 5%
73 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot) 0.197 0.156 0.147 0.147 0.177 0.172 [0.16, 0.185] <0.001 17% 0%
74 Meta Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values) 0.223 0.214 0.113 0.122 0.218 0.172 [0.158, 0.186] <0.001 20% 0%
75 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news) 0.211 0.210 0.128 0.135 0.210 0.173 [0.161, 0.185] <0.001 17% 0%
76 OpenAI GPT-4 (zero shot) 0.213 0.145 0.135 0.136 0.179 0.174 [0.163, 0.186] <0.001 17% 0%
77 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 3) 0.205 0.160 0.142 0.144 0.183 0.175 [0.163, 0.186] <0.001 17% 3%
78 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 1) 0.214 0.281 0.121 0.135 0.247 0.175 [0.162, 0.187] <0.001 19% 2%
79 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.232 0.166 0.115 0.119 0.199 0.176 [0.165, 0.187] <0.001 20% 9%
80 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot) 0.220 0.186 0.128 0.133 0.203 0.177 [0.166, 0.187] <0.001 16% 1%
81 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news) 0.217 0.178 0.133 0.137 0.197 0.177 [0.165, 0.188] <0.001 16% 0%
82 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3) 0.228 0.189 0.128 0.133 0.209 0.181 [0.171, 0.19] <0.001 16% 8%
83 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 3) 0.225 0.199 0.131 0.137 0.212 0.181 [0.171, 0.192] <0.001 16% 5%
84 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot) 0.212 0.228 0.143 0.151 0.220 0.181 [0.168, 0.195] <0.001 18% 0%
85 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot) 0.216 0.208 0.144 0.150 0.212 0.183 [0.169, 0.197] <0.001 19% 0%
86 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad) 0.239 0.132 0.126 0.126 0.186 0.183 [0.172, 0.194] <0.001 21% 11%
87 Anthropic Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2) 0.216 0.216 0.145 0.151 0.216 0.184 [0.171, 0.197] <0.001 18% 0%
88 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news) 0.229 0.258 0.130 0.141 0.243 0.185 [0.175, 0.195] <0.001 16% 0%
89 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.253 0.163 0.113 0.117 0.208 0.185 [0.17, 0.201] <0.001 27% 0%
90 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1) 0.229 0.237 0.134 0.143 0.233 0.186 [0.174, 0.198] <0.001 17% 12%
91 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.229 0.227 0.135 0.143 0.228 0.186 [0.175, 0.197] <0.001 15% 0%
92 Meta Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot) 0.223 0.295 0.136 0.150 0.259 0.187 [0.172, 0.202] <0.001 19% 0%
93 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.239 0.169 0.133 0.136 0.204 0.188 [0.175, 0.201] <0.001 21% 10%
94 OpenAI GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 2) 0.250 0.213 0.121 0.129 0.232 0.190 [0.176, 0.203] <0.001 20% 3%
95 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 2) 0.262 0.159 0.116 0.120 0.210 0.191 [0.177, 0.204] <0.001 23% 20%
96 Google Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2) 0.247 0.305 0.122 0.138 0.276 0.192 [0.178, 0.207] <0.001 19% 0%
97 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.241 0.193 0.140 0.144 0.217 0.193 [0.178, 0.207] <0.001 22% 0%
98 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 3) 0.263 0.179 0.118 0.123 0.221 0.193 [0.182, 0.204] <0.001 21% 16%
99 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.242 0.188 0.143 0.147 0.215 0.194 [0.183, 0.206] <0.001 15% 0%
100 Qwen Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (superforecaster with news 2) 0.235 0.212 0.148 0.153 0.224 0.194 [0.183, 0.206] <0.001 17% 2%
101 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2) 0.245 0.187 0.142 0.146 0.216 0.196 [0.185, 0.206] <0.001 16% 0%
102 OpenAI GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 2) 0.249 0.214 0.136 0.143 0.232 0.196 [0.182, 0.21] <0.001 19% 5%
103 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 2) 0.221 0.216 0.168 0.173 0.219 0.197 [0.184, 0.21] <0.001 17% 6%
104 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news) 0.242 0.164 0.151 0.153 0.203 0.197 [0.186, 0.208] <0.001 16% 0%
105 Google Gemini-1.5-Flash (superforecaster with news 1) 0.238 0.286 0.151 0.163 0.262 0.200 [0.187, 0.214] <0.001 17% 13%
106 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 1) 0.275 0.188 0.124 0.130 0.232 0.203 [0.19, 0.215] <0.001 21% 20%
107 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (superforecaster with news 3) 0.257 0.241 0.144 0.153 0.249 0.205 [0.192, 0.217] <0.001 19% 7%
108 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 1) 0.245 0.261 0.158 0.167 0.253 0.206 [0.192, 0.219] <0.001 17% 16%
109 Anthropic Claude-2.1 (zero shot) 0.241 0.242 0.165 0.172 0.242 0.206 [0.194, 0.218] <0.001 15% 0%
110 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news) 0.284 0.169 0.126 0.129 0.227 0.207 [0.194, 0.219] <0.001 20% 15%
111 Meta Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.256 0.238 0.152 0.159 0.247 0.207 [0.197, 0.218] <0.001 16% 0%
112 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.284 0.218 0.122 0.131 0.251 0.207 [0.195, 0.22] <0.001 21% 14%
113 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 1) 0.297 0.163 0.117 0.121 0.230 0.209 [0.196, 0.222] <0.001 21% 17%
114 Meta Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad) 0.256 0.244 0.162 0.169 0.250 0.212 [0.202, 0.222] <0.001 15% 0%
115 ForecastBench Always 0.5 0.250 0.250 0.168 0.175 0.250 0.212 [0.207, 0.217] <0.001 14% 0%
116 Mistral AI Mistral-Large-Latest (superforecaster with news 3) 0.271 0.213 0.150 0.156 0.242 0.213 [0.202, 0.225] <0.001 16% 2%
117 Meta Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.271 0.213 0.152 0.157 0.242 0.214 [0.202, 0.226] <0.001 15% 0%
118 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot) 0.253 0.230 0.170 0.175 0.242 0.214 [0.197, 0.231] <0.001 20% 0%
119 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.281 0.168 0.149 0.150 0.225 0.216 [0.204, 0.228] <0.001 16% 0%
120 Mistral AI Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2) 0.288 0.240 0.140 0.149 0.264 0.218 [0.204, 0.232] <0.001 23% 19%
121 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.270 0.184 0.166 0.167 0.227 0.219 [0.208, 0.23] <0.001 15% 0%
122 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad) 0.270 0.249 0.173 0.180 0.260 0.225 [0.215, 0.235] <0.001 15% 0%
123 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 2) 0.261 0.201 0.189 0.190 0.231 0.226 [0.214, 0.237] <0.001 16% 3%
124 Meta Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad) 0.271 0.224 0.179 0.183 0.248 0.227 [0.216, 0.238] <0.001 14% 0%
125 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot) 0.281 0.192 0.175 0.176 0.237 0.229 [0.218, 0.24] <0.001 15% 0%
126 ForecastBench Always 0 0.275 0.385 0.177 0.195 0.330 0.235 [0.211, 0.259] <0.001 33% 0%
127 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with freeze values) 0.303 0.189 0.172 0.173 0.246 0.238 [0.228, 0.249] <0.001 14% 0%
128 OpenAI GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with freeze values) 0.284 0.281 0.187 0.195 0.282 0.239 [0.229, 0.25] <0.001 14% 0%
129 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 3) 0.288 0.221 0.193 0.196 0.255 0.242 [0.232, 0.252] <0.001 15% 12%
130 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news) 0.303 0.205 0.181 0.183 0.254 0.243 [0.233, 0.253] <0.001 15% 0%
131 OpenAI GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad) 0.284 0.284 0.203 0.210 0.284 0.247 [0.236, 0.258] <0.001 14% 0%
132 Meta Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with freeze values) 0.299 0.234 0.212 0.214 0.266 0.256 [0.24, 0.272] <0.001 18% 0%
133 Anthropic Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (superforecaster with news 1) 0.289 0.289 0.230 0.235 0.289 0.262 [0.249, 0.276] <0.001 15% 4%
134 Meta Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot) 0.299 0.308 0.238 0.244 0.303 0.271 [0.258, 0.285] <0.001 16% 0%
135 ForecastBench Random Uniform 0.338 0.342 0.216 0.227 0.340 0.283 [0.265, 0.3] <0.001 18% 0%
136 OpenAI GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with freeze values) 0.450 0.253 0.192 0.198 0.352 0.324 [0.305, 0.342] <0.001 23% 0%
137 OpenAI GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot) 0.450 0.273 0.239 0.242 0.361 0.346 [0.329, 0.363] <0.001 16% 0%
138 ForecastBench Always 1 0.725 0.615 0.658 0.655 0.670 0.690 [0.663, 0.717] <0.001 16% 0%