Question fixed effect estimates

This page provides access to the estimated question fixed effects for all questions evaluated on the current baseline and tournament leaderboards. These files are a byproduct of producing the leaderboards. We provide them in hopes of evaluating the fixed effects used to score forecasting performance. For transparency, we provide the estimated question fixed effects for download. NB: higher scores imply more difficult questions.

New files are generated nightly as a byproduct of updating the leaderboards.

File format

The question fixed effects files are provided as JSON files with the following fields:

  • source: The source from which the question was pulled or generated.
  • id: The question ID (unique given source).
  • horizon: The forecast horizon in days (null for market questions)
  • forecast_due_date: The forecast due date associated with the question set the question comes from
  • leaderboard_type: The leaderboard associated with the estimate (baseline or tournament).
  • question_fixed_effect: The question fixed effect estimate.

For more information about these fields, see the wiki.

Available files